Turf Paradise 8th Race -- OUI MAN

[NorCalGreg]

Interesting 8th @ TUP today. I had posted up about a horse--MALIBU PARK a week ago. The horse did nothing--but what caught my eye was--at first--the unusual early betting on another entry: OUI MAN who was maybe 15-1 ML...but opened up @even money--and hovered in that range for quite awhile. It seemed someone was feeding money in on that horse, while my own horse was dead on the board.
I bet Malibu' on my pace figures alone--which I do regularly--so didn't have pp's for the race and had no idea why OIU MAN would be getting so much action. About 5 min to post--odds started to drift up on Oui Man--he ended up going off @ 7-1.

I have a feeling this was stable betting--wouldn't you also figure that?
The horse wasn't part of the pace at all--in a sprint @ TUP if you're horse isn't right there turning for home, you can usually turn the race off at that point--you've lost.
After watching the replay--saw Oiu Man had to thread his way through traffic, and like I mentioned--being out of it by 5 lengths turning for home--he was done, for the top spot anyway.

I also should mention--there was a ton of speed in that race. Now here we are, a week later--and Oui Man is entered right back @ same level but 6.5F today.
I can also see why he would take money like he did--the previous race--he showed the classic speed-burst first 2 calls--then fade--that I have mentioned several times as one of my favorite patterns. This is nothing more than a conditioning race.

Here's what I think--the last race was a definite attempt at a nice coup--it just flat-out didn't work out for his connections. It happens.

Luckily, for all concerned...Oiu Man didn't hit the board, finishing a very important 4TH, but by a close margin in a blanket finish for 2nd place.

Finishing 4th--not hitting the board-- means he may not be so noticeable--this is very common. He obviously came out of that race in good shape, being entered back so quickly.
Now today--his last two races show EARLY SPEED--then next race LATE SPEED. This horse is sitting on a win--will it be today? I don't know this trainer, so not positive of anything.
All indications are today is the day---@ 12-1 ML :6: looks like a solid bet to me. Gonna have to watch the early betting.

-NCG

[johnhannibalsmith]

Definitely a live horse in a solid little last race. I think the M/L might be hopeful - he really hadn't done anything wrong at the meet moving through conditions until a few races back when he had a couple of clunkers. And after the way he was ridden last time, I almost think they decided that the two crummy efforts can be pinned on the horse disliking being pressured from the outside and went out of their way to make sure he got off the fence and to a spot where he could launch a wide rally. In here it seems like the likeliest early pace will break outside of him and clear off so kind of think Ramgeet will let him show a bit more speed once the outside pressure from the gate clears off and wind up in a dream spot on the turn to make that first run that you like. I couldn't find a way to trim a pick five ticket down to the point that he wasn't on it and thought something more like 6-1 to 8-1 was where I'd be hard pressed not to throw a few dollars at him in the win pool.

[EMD4ME]

5/2 fave w 14 MTP.....hmmmmmm....

[EMD4ME]

.10 super 6 in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd spots. 3 must hit ticket, with all surrounding them. Cost $50.40

Thanks for posting NCG. Took a look, JHS, nice thoughts. New horse in this cycle. Worried about 6 1/2 F but think will stalk outside and get decent trip.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I was driving home and didn't get to see it but watched one replay and think that's a race and horse I will watch a time or two more. I was watching too many things at once but after a lousy start it looked like mid-turn when the running was starting, the rider wasn't acting too inspired.

[NorCalGreg]

.10 super 6 in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd spots. 3 must hit ticket, with all surrounding them. Cost $50.40

Thanks for posting NCG. Took a look, JHS, nice thoughts. New horse in this cycle. Worried about 6 1/2 F but think will stalk outside and get decent trip.

I have absolutely no idea what to make of that race. It wasn't one of those "they knew" races---because there wasn't a cent of extra late last-blink money on anyone.

the chartmaker's comment:

" OUI MAN bumped at the start, was checked early, bid five wide and had little left for the drive."

Only thing I can chalk this up to, is the 6.5F distance---which we've discussed previously.

*On a side note....I was under the impression, the FIRST TOTALS...on the toteboard--was any money bet in advance. Didn't you all think that?

LOL...don't laugh at me noticing this, but I bet $20 to place on the :6: @ 5:00AM this morning---first blink of the tote showed $12 to place on the :6: ---2nd blink $17...THEN a ton of money was shown on all horses--3rd blink.

Where was my $20.00 Place bet? I bet as soon as betting opened up.

[EMD4ME]

I have absolutely no idea what to make of that race. It wasn't one of those "they knew" races---because there wasn't a cent of extra late last-blink money on anyone.

the chartmaker's comment:

" OUI MAN bumped at the start, was checked early, bid five wide and had little left for the drive."

Only thing I can chalk this up to, is the 6.5F distance---which we've discussed previously.

*On a side note....I was under the impression, the FIRST TOTALS...on the toteboard--was any money bet in advance. Didn't you all think that?

LOL...don't laugh at me noticing this, but I bet $20 to place on the :6: @ 5:00AM this morning---first blink of the tote showed $12 to place on the :6: ---2nd blink $17...THEN a ton of money was shown on all horses--3rd blink.

Where was my $20.00 Place bet? I bet as soon as betting opened up.


I was under the same impression.......WTF knows in this game....

He was loaded most of the way but just had the wrong dynamics/race flow/racing luck IMHO. Horse can be bet next time out at 5 1/2 or 6F preferably.