very short list Derby candidates

[sbcaris]

Since none of the big 5 prep races have been run yet: Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby and Santa Anita Derby the following is a very short list of Derby candidates that I feel have what it takes to win at 10 furlongs: (note that I list their conduit mares as a prerequisite to the roses)

Mohaymen- they haven't gotten to his bottom yet. Conduit---Cherokee Rose
Cupid-------Game effort in last where he showed heart-------Lygie
Gun Runner---He has staying power----------------------------Lygie
Lani--Won the UAE Derby without being asked----------------Cherokee Rose

The above are my top 4 right now. Of course that can change in the next 3 weeks. Once again, 67% of the last 42 Derbies were won by horses that carried a strong conduit mare in tail female. That is why I listed the above conduits as a major factor. ( I define a strong conduit mare as one of my special 39 conduits found in my book-Analyzing The Triple Crown.

[Secondbest]

Gun runner's next is the derby so no big five for him. That last race was real slow. How Will you evalute him?

[sbcaris]

Good Question: If he goes straight into the Derby he doesn't qualify on my checklist for final fraction time because the La Derby is not a big 5 prep race. So despite running the last furlong of the Louisiana Derby in 12.94 he gets no points for that indicator. Handicappers however should be flexible in their final decisions and this horse looks like a real contender. He has won 4 of 5 races and he was impressive in his last. I like his breeding for 10 furlongs and his performances so far are good. Keep a close eye on how he works out leading up to the run for the roses.

[SecretAgentMan]

If Gun Runner wins the KD, the LA derby will probably be made a G1 race next year. There's gonna be so much hype made about the Florida derby horses & the other major prep races, Gun Runner will not be looked at much come derby day.

Caris, I like how explained why Gun Runner deserves respect even tho he didn't race in a 5 major prep race.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Lani kinda had to work for that UAE Derby win, no? I read although they have no beyers he has an estimated beyer of 83. Im not a Lani fan. Mubtaahij was much better a year ago and he couldnt hit the board.

[f2tornado]

Lani's time was just a tenth slower than Mabtaahij last year but bad stumble at start cost him some time. I will argue Lani has superior breeding and this lightly raced horse has room to improve. It's not like the domestic horses are lights out this year. I could see it but won't bet it unless the big preps are yawners.

[Robert Fischer]

mohaymen - beast who kmac must bring to the dance in good form this time

nyquist - haven't seen him lately but my memory puts him on this list

shagaf - in the convo for sure

mor spirit - probably the best i've seen from Baffert this 3yo campaign


I haven't watched the dubai race yet