Gun Runner

[PowerUpPaynter]

Figured I might as start a thread for this horse since he will be a topic of conversation as we move forward the next 6 weeks. I feel tho that the Louisiana Horses are weak this year.

[f2tornado]

Slow race. Slowest since going to 9F in 2000. The final 3/8th in 38.12 if my math is correct is just a little slower than what I look for. Pretty lousy field to boot. I'm tossing from the KD win pool.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Slow race. Slowest since going to 9F in 2000. The final 3/8th in 38.12 if my math is correct is just a little slower than what I look for. Pretty lousy field to boot. I'm tossing from the KD win pool.


Mo Tom was about to blast off before he ducked inside. Terrible ride, would of won. Hes gonna get a better jockey and land in the super come derby day.

[SecretAgentMan]

Mo Tom was about to blast off before he ducked inside. Terrible ride, would of won. Hes gonna get a better jockey and land in the super come derby day.



Lmao, Mo Tom wouldn't have caught Gun Runner, get realistic dude!

He might have gotten second, but either his jockey is bad with this horse or theres something wrong with this horse mentally.

[PowerUpPaynter]

The 91 beyer is weak but there has been some low beyer horses from teh Louisiana Derby to hit the board recently.


2014 Commanding Curve 89 beyer in LA Derby finished 2nd
2013 Golden Soul 85 beyer in LA Derby finished 2nd
2013 Revolutionary 93 Beyer in LA Derby finished 3rd
2011 Mucho Macho Man 93 Beyer in LA Derby finished 3rd

[azeri98]

Mo Tom was about to blast off before he ducked inside. Terrible ride, would of won. Hes gonna get a better jockey and land in the super come derby day.
This horse would find trouble in a 2 horse field.

[Tom]

This horse would find trouble in a 2 horse field.

Somehow, he would get boxed in between that one horse and the rail. :lol:

[burnsy]

This horse has not run the fastest yet. But he keeps getting better. He's tactical and he blew those horses out of the water. Mo Tom was just a bad bet in that race...the price, plus his running style.

This is a perfect example of what I was talking about in that "risk intelligence" thread (expert gamblers). Gun Runner was the most likely winner but had a higher price than Mo Tom. Someone that plays on "probability" like I do is going to be all over Gun Runner in a deal like this. He just beat these horses, he always gets the jump on Mo Tom and he's paying more. That's a perfect storm bet for me.

Asmussen was grinning ear to ear after that one..........don't toss him just yet. He may even have one more step up left in him.

Mo Tom may end up in the super, derby day.......if he does it will most likely be a "suck up" trip for a placing. He has to do better than what he's doing now.

[lamboguy]

he was weaving in and out down the lane maybe because the rider lost a little control of him. if he makes another improvement he could be real tough.

i am rooting for him, i have been on him since his first race.

[burnsy]

I agree Lambo. He's far from a toss at this point. He just keeps getting better, as the distances get longer. Make no mistake that was a blow out and knowing the trainer that's probably not bottom yet. He probably could run a little better next time. It was pretty impressive, especially if it gets overlooked and his price is crazy.

[tanner12oz]

this horse gets no respect

[SecretAgentMan]

this horse gets no respect



I know, right! I think he will be 10-1 or higher come derby day.

[PowerUpPaynter]

prob more like 15-1 maybe more. Best case hes the 5th choice. Figure Moheyman, Nyquist, Santa Anita Derby winner, and someone is going to have a breakout performace. Destin with another nice showing will have more of a buzz too.

[f2tornado]

prob more like 15-1 maybe more. Best case hes the 5th choice. Figure Moheyman, Nyquist, Santa Anita Derby winner, and someone is going to have a breakout performace. Destin with another nice showing will have more of a buzz too.

Add in the Blue Grass. Arkansas, and perhaps Wood winner as well. I don't think this one will be the proverbial "wise guy" horse either. You will get a good gauge on his potential odds with the Future Wager 4 coming up Friday. Louisiana Derby horses have had decent Triple Crown race exotic impact value in recent years. Both the win and place horses this year have a conduit mare and the place horse has spring classic exotics bomber professional trainer Dallas Stewart. I'll stick them in my exacta/trifecta wagers and hope the trend continues.

[SecretAgentMan]

Add in the Blue Grass. Arkansas, and perhaps Wood winner as well. I don't think this one will be the proverbial "wise guy" horse either. You will get a good gauge on his potential odds with the Future Wager 4 coming up Friday. Louisiana Derby horses have had decent Triple Crown race exotic impact value in recent years. Both the win and place horses this year have a conduit mare and the place horse has spring classic exotics bomber professional trainer Dallas Stewart. I'll stick them in my exacta/trifecta wagers and hope the trend continues.




I think you will get better odds on GR on derby day than you will in pool 4 futures. The futures pool starts this coming weekend, & GR is fresh in people's minds, but when the Fla derby, & the rest of the big 5 prep races are all said & done, the bettors will be focused on those, & GR's odds IMO will be a lot higher than the future pool 4

[f2tornado]

The Future closes the day after FL Derby so that part helps. A decisive Mohaymen win this weekend might even get you better Future odds on Gun Runner than on Derby day. Keep in mind some bettors will be turned off by the slow time he won with. Agree the Bluegrass, Wood, and Ark winners will take some more money come Derby day but that does not guarantee the odds on any particular horse will be higher at that time. Some of that is already priced into the Future odds. Lots of factors like post, rider, workouts, etc. will have an impact on post time odds. There's also likely a much different betting crowd than what the Future wagers bring in. I'm expecting around 14-1 in the Future which is around where Destin and Danzing Candy finished after their 50 point prep wins in Future 3. Derby day odds should be similar barring a couple very strong wins in remaining preps.

[PhantomOnTour]

Isn't anyone concerned that he's gotten two very nice trips in a row?
Sat inside behind the same speed horse who couldn't get the distance.

[SecretAgentMan]

Isn't anyone concerned that he's gotten two very nice trips in a row?
Sat inside behind the same speed horse who couldn't get the distance.



That's like saying Mohaymen & Nyquist got easy trips in every race. Good horses with good tactical speed with several gears make their own race happen.

[PowerUpPaynter]

with all due respect fine sir, how much 'speed' does a 91 beyer carry? In my honest opinion ii think Gun Runner won because the field is pathetic and Mo Tom got stopped in his tracks twice.

[f2tornado]

with all due respect fine sir, how much 'speed' does a 91 beyer carry? In my honest opinion ii think Gun Runner won because the field is pathetic and Mo Tom got stopped in his tracks twice.

For what it's worth, the Brisnet figure was a respectable 104. The pace figures good too. Seems high for such a slow race. Even if you equalize the time by track it would amount to 1:49 at Santa Anita, a figure from that has rarely lead to a Derby win. The horse has run slow 6F slits his entire career. The Derby leader will be 10 or more lengths ahead of him with 4 panels to go. All that said, hard to knock a Raise A Native sire line with conduit mare in tail female too much when all the horse has done is win. Modest improvement could at least put him in contention for exotics.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Figure wise I trust CJ's assessment more than Beyer. He has Gun Runner rated at 113 which is right up there with the rest of the big dogs. Top figure is 117 on the year. I really like the pedigree on this one. The only thing that holds me back is his opposition and if this is his last race. Similar to Destin I want to see him out of Fair Grounds before the Derby, Tampa for Destin. Running away from his rivals is all the horse could do. And with his tactical speed he GIVES himself dream trips, he's not just lucky.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Gun Runner is probably the only horse thus far I'm on the fence about. Last year I really liked International Star's LA prep campaign and despite knowing that American Pharoah was something special I was going to bet a few on the win and definitely use underneath in my exotics. Sadly, he scratched, but I wasn't afraid to use him despite the perceived lack of talent in those fields or the 6 week schedule others are quick to point out as being a difficult go, going into the derby. Why I like International Star so much was his ability to win from anywhere: outside post, rail post, winning move up the rail, winning move wide. etc.

Gun Runner to me is intriguing that I don't think he's had to work extensively hard for his victories and he's bred to get the distance. I am turned off about his slow times and his maturity issues in the lane, something I think may cost him, especially in a crowded derby field. He might be someone I leave off and hope that history of the 6 week break holds true.

[PhantomOnTour]

Isn't anyone concerned that he's gotten two very nice trips in a row?
Sat inside behind the same speed horse who couldn't get the distance.
I downgraded him for having two nice trips, but with the way the pace scenario is shaping up for the Derby, he may just get another.
I have changed my mind on this colt and now see him as a contender for the top slots.

[Huddy Goodjob]

I downgraded him for having two nice trips, but with the way the pace scenario is shaping up for the Derby, he may just get another.
I have changed my mind on this colt and now see him as a contender for the top slots.

He is the stand out of the crop and will prove so. His pace numbers are far more superior than all the others. Him and Creator are top ranked on my sheet. Just from a statistical standpoint Gun Runner stands out.

RAN sire line (sire line produces high % of winners)
AWD of Sire >6.7 (12 of 16 winners)
Bris LP 96+ (14 of 16 winners)
New top Bris in last (9 of 16 winners)
Won @ mile or more @ 2 (11 of 16 winners)
E2/LP/Speed all 100+ in last

Based on data I collect the top contenders are Gun Runner and Creator

Mor Spirit, Suddenbreakingnews, and My Man Sam look strong as well.

This thing could also explode and Oscar Nominated wins.

[SecretAgentMan]

He is the stand out of the crop and will prove so. His pace numbers are far more superior than all the others. Him and Creator are top ranked on my sheet. Just from a statistical standpoint Gun Runner stands out.

RAN sire line (sire line produces high % of winners)
AWD of Sire >6.7 (12 of 16 winners)
Bris LP 96+ (14 of 16 winners)
New top Bris in last (9 of 16 winners)
Won @ mile or more @ 2 (11 of 16 winners)
E2/LP/Speed all 100+ in last

Based on data I collect the top contenders are Gun Runner and Creator

Mor Spirit, Suddenbreakingnews, and My Man Sam look strong as well.

This thing could also explode and Oscar Nominated wins.



Dude, the only horse that scares me as a long shot is Oscar Nominated. He will be put underneath in all my tickets, & I hope he doesn't win the race to clock my tickets.

Gun Runner is working out great, & the trainer is looking to tighten the screws on him next Monday. Asmussen will have him ready for the derby!

[PowerUpPaynter]

Oscar nominated? I was tossing him. What an I missing?

[Huddy Goodjob]

Oscar nominated? I was tossing him. What an I missing?

For me its the who can't win, but after looking closer really can win factor.

He ran a 96+ LP in last (14 of 16 winners)
Has a winning AWD
Ran a new top Bris speed in last (9 of 16)
Won @ a mile @ 2
Won by 3 lengths or more @ 2
Prep race on AW, has shown in past these horses love CH

With this crop anything can happen.

When you have the favorite running in a 7fl prep in Feb, throw a dart.

[Parson]

I just missed being there, but he went 5f 1:00 flat and Steve generally does not work his horses that fast. Do we break the LA Derby jinx this year?

[Grits]

On Gunrunner and on Hall Of Fame nomination.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/210901/gun-runner-validates-reasons-for-partnership

"He worked very well this morning and settled into Churchill very nicely," Asmussen said. "I was very pleased with the work; he goes over the racetrack really well. I'm obviously excited about our opportunity. "He's a tremendous individual as far as conformation, pedigree-wise. He has got a great attitude—just the whole package. He accepts what he's doing and is very energetic as far as training. He has always been very effortless over the racetrack, like his work this morning. He goes around there in a minute and does it very kindly.

"In the Derby, (with) 20 runners, I don't think they're going to all love the surface. We don't have to worry about that."


Asmussen, who won the April 16 Arkansas Derby (gr. I) with WinStar Farm's Creator (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/creator/2013?source=BHonline), is on the ballot for election to the National Museum of Racing's Hall of Fame. Asked if he thought about it much, the trainer said: "I'd rather win the Derby. It's a wonderful honor, but right now our focus is definitely the Derby and the Oaks. I've been dreaming about (winning the Derby) for a long time, before I ever won a race. I feel extremely fortunate to have two excellent chances at it this year."

[SecretAgentMan]

I just missed being there, but he went 5f 1:00 flat and Steve generally does not work his horses that fast. Do we break the LA Derby jinx this year?




Yes sir!

[Huddy Goodjob]

On Gunrunner and on Hall Of Fame nomination.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/210901/gun-runner-validates-reasons-for-partnership

Steve A. should get his derby win this year. Both his horses are top contenders by my numbers. Will be perfect timing with the Hall of Fame induction.

[SecretAgentMan]

Steve A. should get his derby win this year. Both his horses are top contenders by my numbers. Will be perfect timing with the Hall of Fame induction.



I agree Huddy, 2016 is the year Asmussen wins the KD!

Question: what do you make of Oscar Nominated owner having someone else put up $200k to enter their horse.

I always thought if an owner puts up $200k to nominate their horse, there's a good chance it wins or gets a piece of the pie, BUT, knowing Ramsey has a ton of money & not putting it up himself makes me think he knows his horse can't win.

[Grits]

Steve A. should get his derby win this year. Both his horses are top contenders by my numbers. Will be perfect timing with the Hall of Fame induction.

Do you remember this quote from Andy Beyer's Washington Post column, during the problems of two years ago?

He has shamed thoroughbred racing so badly that the chairman of the Jockey Club, Ogden Mills “Dinny” Phipps, declared that there is “a dark cloud hovering over our sport” and that Asmussen ought to stay away from the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks. Asmussen is expected to ignore that suggestion by saddling his brilliant filly Untapable for Friday’s Oaks and his colt Tapiture for Saturday’s Derby. Phipps and other leaders of the industry surely shudder at the thought of Asmussen hoisting a trophy as a nationwide television audience watches.

I thought the late Mr. Phipps' remarks were unfortunate and premature, as at the time, these were accusations. Not to mention, from a group of rabid nutballs.

Anyway, of course, he didn't heed Mr.Phipps' admonition. Money talks, yes. But money, thankfully, doesn't always get its way!!

Steve A saddled his filly, and Untapable, handily, won the Oaks. Like you, I want him voted into the HOF. And I hope to be there to see it. :)

[Huddy Goodjob]

I agree Huddy, 2016 is the year Asmussen wins the KD!

Question: what do you make of Oscar Nominated owner having someone else put up $200k to enter their horse.

I always thought if an owner puts up $200k to nominate their horse, there's a good chance it wins or gets a piece of the pie, BUT, knowing Ramsey has a ton of money & not putting it up himself makes me think he knows his horse can't win.

Him asking someone else to fork up the dough is offensive. By his actions it definitely insinuates he doesn't think his contender can win. It's very confusing why he would even extend the invitation for another to pay the fee, if you don't think your contender can win...why enter. It's the Derby I get it...but geez...stop loading the gate with those who don't belong. I want to see a horse race...not an 80's Mike Tyson fight. I'm sick of the chalk running away with the roses. Lets see a battle, no more lay overs.

[Huddy Goodjob]

What do you think of this statistic I found?

Since 2000 only 1 horse who did not post a 100+ E2/LP/or Speed figure DID NOT place in the top 3.

That horse was Mucho Macho Man, who did post a 98LP.

This statistic will include a large % of the field but it may help with the wheel.

This year there are 9 horses that meet this angle.

Now, the tri last year paid a weak $200 or so. But lets talk Mine That Bird and Giacomo years...both years this angle would work. Issue is, would you be keying those horses on top?

Anyway, I found it interesting. Not sure what value it has.

**Cough** Our boy meets this angle and only one to post 100+ in all.

[SecretAgentMan]

Him asking someone else to fork up the dough is offensive. By his actions it definitely insinuates he doesn't think his contender can win. It's very confusing why he would even extend the invitation for another to pay the fee, if you don't think your contender can win...why enter. It's the Derby I get it...but geez...stop loading the gate with those who don't belong. I want to see a horse race...not an 80's Mike Tyson fight. I'm sick of the chalk running away with the roses. Lets see a battle, no more lay overs.



Ramsey wants his cake for free & eat it too. He cones across as a cheap millionaire.


I'm sticking with Gun Runner to win, but having a tough time finding my superfecta horses. I'm looking to key GR over 8 horses (the same) for 2nd, 3rd & 4th

[PaceAdvantage]

Ramsey wants his cake for free & eat it too. He cones across as a cheap millionaire.Non-cheap millionaires don't stay millionaires for very long.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Ramsey wants his cake for free & eat it too. He cones across as a cheap millionaire.


I'm sticking with Gun Runner to win, but having a tough time finding my superfecta horses. I'm looking to key GR over 8 horses (the same) for 2nd, 3rd & 4th

Could always just key the Wood runners in 4th, and fill in the middle.

Creator scores pretty high on my numbers as well. Steve is pretty loaded heading into both Oaks and Derby.

I'm in So Cal, so I'm more of a Baffert fan myself. I have Mor Spirit no better than 2nd right now.

[SecretAgentMan]

Could always just key the Wood runners in 4th, and fill in the middle.

Creator scores pretty high on my numbers as well. Steve is pretty loaded heading into both Oaks and Derby.

I'm in So Cal, so I'm more of a Baffert fan myself. I have Mor Spirit no better than 2nd right now.



Baffert made me good money with Silver Charm & Real Quiet, but didn't play his other 2. Baffert is always needed to thought of as a contender.

But I'm not too fond of the Cali horses this year.

[Huddy Goodjob]

What do you think of this statistic I found?

Since 2000 only 1 horse who did not post a 100+ E2/LP/or Speed figure DID NOT place in the top 3.

That horse was Mucho Macho Man, who did post a 98LP.

This statistic will include a large % of the field but it may help with the wheel.

This year there are 9 horses that meet this angle.

Now, the tri last year paid a weak $200 or so. But lets talk Mine That Bird and Giacomo years...both years this angle would work. Issue is, would you be keying those horses on top?

Anyway, I found it interesting. Not sure what value it has.

**Cough** Our boy meets this angle and only one to post 100+ in all.

Correction, 2 horses since 2000 did not meet this angle...MTB did not meet this angle either.

[señorclipclop]

Correction, 2 horses since 2000 did not meet this angle...MTB did not meet this angle either.

Is this lifetime? Exclude sprints?

[Huddy Goodjob]

Is this lifetime? Exclude sprints?

Soooo, it must have been late and I must have been on little sleep because I've now noticed several other winner that would not fit this angle. That's what I get for trying to find a tri angle. Lazy capper.

[Andrick]

Correction, 2 horses since 2000 did not meet this angle...MTB did not meet this angle either.

Is this just for the final prep, Huddy?

If so, Super Saver is another one that doesn't fit, although he had multiple races where his E2 was 100+ and had a 100 SPD figure in a previous race. But then again, so did Mucho Macho Man who had races where he scored 100+ in E2, LP, and overall SPD earlier in his career.

[SecretAgentMan]

Soooo, it must have been late and I must have been on little sleep because I've now noticed several other winner that would not fit this angle. That's what I get for trying to find a tri angle. Lazy capper.




Lol, I do stuff like this too when I'm tired & the next day I go thru everything again & wonder wtf was I looking at the previous day. Doesn't happen often, but its crazy when it does.

[minethatbird08]

Soooo, it must have been late and I must have been on little sleep because I've now noticed several other winner that would not fit this angle. That's what I get for trying to find a tri angle. Lazy capper.

I have some of this data (Unfortunately I am not sure if I updated for last years Derby, I will get around to checking into that).

Since 2000 I have 68 starters with a last race E2 and LP below 100. From those 68 you have 5 in the super. As has been stated two of those 5 were winners: SS and MTB with third place going to MMM. Probably interesting fact is that in SS win there were 14 starters with double below 100 last out, field average is around 4 over this time period. This year we are looking at about 10 such starters.

Also, because people will probably ask I have 25 starters with Double over 100 with 6 winners 3 seconds (10 total in the super). Of note here is you actually have 2 exactas. Gun Runner falls into this category this year.

Again I have to double check the info to see if I updated for last year.

[boys at tosconova]

i think this horse is cheap. however, he should have decent positioning..there's something about him that's preventing me from using him

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i think this horse is cheap. however, he should have decent positioning..there's something about him that's preventing me from using him

I was on him early, and I agree, he isn't a winner for me. In his two Derby preps he got perfect setups while many he ran against found trouble. Two races where he basically never broke stride.

While he does make his own trip, he is a first run horse that will need things to fall entirely in his favor to come out on top while relying upon others to not show up with their best. Anything less than 15/1, to me, is an underlay.

[boys at tosconova]

very nice work

https://youtu.be/FpfyqZSQNHw

[SecretAgentMan]

very nice work

https://youtu.be/FpfyqZSQNHw



One more breeze workout for Gun Runner next Monday May 2nd, Asmussen will have GR ready for the KD.

[boys at tosconova]

i like his work better than any horse so far.

i don't like that his competition looks cheap compared to many

[SecretAgentMan]

i like his work better than any horse so far.

i don't like that his competition looks cheap compared to many




Maybe Asmussen chose the Fairgrounds path knowing his horse wouldn't get beat up racing against Mohaymen or Nyquist until it was time, the derby. Remember these horses are still growing & filling out.

He ran against Mor Spirit & Mo Tom, & several others that ran G1.

[PoloUK6108]

Slowly but surely climbing aboard the GR train..just seems to have a knack for finding a good trip, super important in the KD. Geroux is as hot as anyone and hungry much like Rosario in 2013. Looking forward to his last work.

[Robert Fischer]

talent and style put him in the mix in just about every race.

can stalk the pace and take 1st run on the leaders.

can't make it through the stretch without switching to the (wrong) left lead.

His gallop out wasn't pretty in the La. Derby.

flaws raise valid questions about 10 Furlongs Grade 1.

record is inflated because of some good trips (most of which he made with his style).

layoff looks like a positive for him.

has trained well up to the derby staying on the proper leads so far.

style helps if Derby develops as projected.

Firing Line got a similar type of dream trip last year and also failed to change leads, yet almost beat American Pharaoh and his worse trip/off-race. I don't think Gun Runner is a toss. Wouldn't surprise me if he contends or finishes off the board.

[Speed Figure]

I like the numbers GR has been running! getting better in each race. If he gets a nice outside post and 10/1 or better he's a good bet!

[SecretAgentMan]

I like the numbers GR has been running! getting better in each race. If he gets a nice outside post and 10/1 or better he's a good bet!



Gun Runner is in beast mode in his workouts, & he should be higher than 10-1 on derby day. I think his ML odds will.be 15-1.

[dballard125]

Gun Runner is in beast mode in his workouts, & he should be higher than 10-1 on derby day. I think his ML odds will.be 15-1.

I've noticed that you're married to him in this years Derby, so I wish you luck good sir. Are you playing anyone else on top of your tickets, or are you all-in with GR?

[SecretAgentMan]

I've noticed that you're married to him in this years Derby, so I wish you luck good sir. Are you playing anyone else on top of your tickets, or are you all-in with GR?




Yeah, I'm all in on GR. The other horses don't scare me at all after seeing the workouts. Nyquist isn't working like he's about to race a 1 1/4, they're babying him.too much.

My problem is figuring the horses underneath. I will stick Nyquist underneath in the exotics, & several others. Don't see many closers that can get 2nd tho.

I won't put anyone else on top, I'm strictly Gun Runner to win!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I like the numbers GR has been running! getting better in each race. If he gets a nice outside post and 10/1 or better he's a good bet!

Honest question, did any of your numbers win a 9F Derby prep this year?

[ArlJim78]

Not for me. GR has had all inside posts and dream trips but finished up ugly against suspect competition in the last two. He tried CD once and that didn't go so well.
The only horse that interested me from the Fairgrounds was Mo Tom

[Huddy Goodjob]

He tried CD once and that didn't go so well.

Twice...1st try, broke maiden.

2nd try caught a sloppy track, ran 4th.

[ArlJim78]

Twice...1st try, broke maiden.

2nd try caught a sloppy track, ran 4th.
I meant he tried stakes competition outside of La once, and came up short.

Mor Spirit and Mo Tom caught that same sloppy track.

[SecretAgentMan]

Not for me. GR has had all inside posts and dream trips but finished up ugly against suspect competition in the last two. He tried CD once and that didn't go so well.
The only horse that interested me from the Fairgrounds was Mo Tom



He won at CD at a mile first time out. He had the lead in the stretch in his only loss on slop & Asmussen stated he didn't have him ready the way he should have going into that race, & the slop was no excuse.

Also, good horses with tactical speech & turn of foot make their own perfect trips w/o help from any other horse. You see the difference between GR & Mo Tom?

Mo Tom can't get away from his own shadow & gets I to serious problems, GR doesn't have that problem & to cappers like you, it always seems like horses like GR get the perfect trip, difference is, GR earns Hus perfect trips by being the horse he is.

[SecretAgentMan]

I meant he tried stakes competition outside of La once, and came up short.

Mor Spirit and Mo Tom caught that same sloppy track.



Why is it when Mo Tom gets into trouble, they always blame the jockey, or blame Danzig Candy's crazy speed on the slop?

You do know Gun Runner beat Mo Tom twice?

[ArlJim78]

I don't expect to change any minds. just sharing my thoughts.
I also warned people about Vicars In Trouble and International Star.
Horses that win the derby just don't finish up like that in their preps.

[SecretAgentMan]

I don't expect to change any minds. just sharing my thoughts.
I also warned people about Vicars In Trouble and International Star.
Horses that win the derby just don't finish up like that in their preps.



Who do you like Jim? And please just give me one horse, not 5 like most people on this site.

[ArlJim78]

Why is it when Mo Tom gets into trouble, they always blame the jockey, or blame Danzig Candy's crazy speed on the slop?

You do know Gun Runner beat Mo Tom twice?
I don't know who "they" are. I'm not blaming anyone, I simply stated that Mo Tom to me is a far more interesting derby prospect than GR.

[ArlJim78]

Who do you like Jim? And please just give me one horse, not 5 like most people on this site.
Honestly I haven't totally settled in yet. I got a late start on this derby.
I have some favorable opinions that involve 3-4 horses, but have not reached a decision so today I can't give you one horse. Give me a week and I'll name one.

[SecretAgentMan]

I don't know who "they" are. I'm not blaming anyone, I simply stated that Mo Tom to me is a far more interesting derby prospect than GR.



They is the whole world, whether I read comments on this site, drf, etc. Everyone states the same stuff about Mo Tom, why he's always getting I to trouble. I've seen ma.y horses get into trouble in the past & they never do anything in the derby, its just a bad habit of tripping over themselves.

[SecretAgentMan]

Honestly I haven't totally settled in yet. I got a late start on this derby.
I have some favorable opinions that involve 3-4 horses, but have not reached a decision so today I can't give you one horse. Give me a week and I'll name one.



Fair enough, I'm assuming like most, you need to see the post positions, which makes sense.

[Speed Figure]

Honest question, did any of your numbers win a 9F Derby prep this year?
I don't understand your question.

[PowerUpPaynter]

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/derby/2016/04/27/kentucky-derby-2016--gun-runners-louisiana-derby-speed-figure-dropped-by-brisnet/83599706/


Brisnet drops Gun Runners LA Derby speed figure

[SecretAgentMan]

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/derby/2016/04/27/kentucky-derby-2016--gun-runners-louisiana-derby-speed-figure-dropped-by-brisnet/83599706/


Brisnet drops Gun Runners LA Derby speed figure




This makes me want to double up on Gun Runner!

[PoloUK6108]

Surprised that's even in the Courier..Brisnet fig was too high to begin with

[Longshot]

Bris has down graded the Louisiana Derby for some reason in their latest PPs.
The E1, E2, LP and Sp have all changed


Gun Runner.....95 E1..104 E2...100 LP...104 Sp Newest 90 E1...98 E2..98 LP....100 SP

Tom's Ready...88 E1..99 E2..96.LP..99 SP Newest 84 E1...93 E2..94 LP...95 SP
Mo Tom.......80 E1...95 E2..97 LP..98 SP Newest 76 E1...89 E2..95 LP...93 SP

[PowerUpPaynter]

Noisy Gun Runner: It was most noticeable in his workout, but the Louisiana Derby winner breathes louder than most horses when moving. Jockey Florent Geroux says he's always been that way. "If it was something new, it would be concerning," Geroux said.


maybe he's a smoker.

[delsully]

Noisy Gun Runner: It was most noticeable in his workout, but the Louisiana Derby winner breathes louder than most horses when moving. Jockey Florent Geroux says he's always been that way. "If it was something new, it would be concerning," Geroux said.


maybe he's a smoker.

I hope it's medicinal!

[bobbyt62]

talent and style put him in the mix in just about every race.

can stalk the pace and take 1st run on the leaders.

can't make it through the stretch without switching to the (wrong) left lead.

His gallop out wasn't pretty in the La. Derby.

flaws raise valid questions about 10 Furlongs Grade 1.

record is inflated because of some good trips (most of which he made with his style).

layoff looks like a positive for him.

has trained well up to the derby staying on the proper leads so far.

style helps if Derby develops as projected.

Firing Line got a similar type of dream trip last year and also failed to change leads, yet almost beat American Pharaoh and his worse trip/off-race. I don't think Gun Runner is a toss. Wouldn't surprise me if he contends or finishes off the board.
.....can you elaborate on gr's gallop out ? what happened or was observed ? i hear a lot about gallop outs , but i've never been able to ask ? whats good..whats bad..? what did gr display that was not pretty ? what should he have displayed ? thanks in advance , if you have the time to answer ...

[Robert Fischer]

.....can you elaborate on gr's gallop out ? what happened or was observed ? i hear a lot about gallop outs , but i've never been able to ask ? whats good..whats bad..? what did gr display that was not pretty ? what should he have displayed ? thanks in advance , if you have the time to answer ...

It was tough to see in the Louisiana Derby but it wasn't a pretty gallop out to my eye.

It looked like Gun Runner may have switched the wrong(right) lead, or may have simply shortened stride.

You'd prefer the horse be on the right lead through the stretch, and then switch to the left lead on the turn.

The effort the horse just gave in the race and the degree to which the jock is pulling up the horse affect the gallop out a lot.

Preferably you'd like to see the horse full of run and almost seem to 'get a 2nd wind' as he gallops out.

good comparison is Nyquist Florida Derby vs. Gun Runner Louisiana Derby.
Both switched to the wrong(left) lead mid-stretch. Nyquist however, galloped out very well.

Footwork has been an issue for GR. It's been a habit for Gun Runner to go left-lead in the stretch, but it's a positive sign that he's stayed righty in his workouts thus far.

[SecretAgentMan]

.....can you elaborate on gr's gallop out ? what happened or was observed ? i hear a lot about gallop outs , but i've never been able to ask ? whats good..whats bad..? what did gr display that was not pretty ? what should he have displayed ? thanks in advance , if you have the time to answer ...




From what the clickers & everyone else us saying from GR's workouts, they've fixed the lead change problems & his gallop outs are strong & this horse is coming into his own.

Wait & read about his last workout on Monday, this horse had 6 weeks off for a reason, Asmussen knows what this horse is capable of, & he's been working with him for 6 weeks, this horse is getting better & better.

[Grits]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzbjFaeqO2k&feature=youtu.be

[Huddy Goodjob]

It was tough to see in the Louisiana Derby but it wasn't a pretty gallop out to my eye.

It looked like Gun Runner may have switched the wrong(right) lead, or may have simply shortened stride.

You'd prefer the horse be on the right lead through the stretch, and then switch to the left lead on the turn.

The effort the horse just gave in the race and the degree to which the jock is pulling up the horse affect the gallop out a lot.

Preferably you'd like to see the horse full of run and almost seem to 'get a 2nd wind' as he gallops out.

good comparison is Nyquist Florida Derby vs. Gun Runner Louisiana Derby.
Both switched to the wrong(left) lead mid-stretch. Nyquist however, galloped out very well.

Footwork has been an issue for GR. It's been a habit for Gun Runner to go left-lead in the stretch, but it's a positive sign that he's stayed righty in his workouts thus far.

Best gallop out in Fl Derby would have been Majesto as he pasted Nyq by lengths.

[Robert Fischer]

Best gallop out in Fl Derby would have been Majesto as he pasted Nyq by lengths.

Majesto definitely had the best gallop out. They have to be looked at relative to the trip as well.

distance traveled = Nyquist ran 31 more feet (or approx 3 more lengths) during the running of the race.

peak speed = Nyquist ranked 2/10 with 39.9mph , Majesto ranked 9/10 with 38.7mph (the slowest peak speed was the other stretch runner in the race Fellowship)

Majesto is a very nice horse, but he ran a much different race than Nyquist and Mohaymen.

[Robert Fischer]

peak speed = Nyquist ranked 2/10 with 39.9mph

*2/10 with 39.7mph

[glengarry]

Noisy Gun Runner: It was most noticeable in his workout, but the Louisiana Derby winner breathes louder than most horses when moving. Jockey Florent Geroux says he's always been that way. "If it was something new, it would be concerning," Geroux said.


maybe he's a smoker.

Frosted was noisy even after the surgery, both before the Wood and a few other races where I got feedback on his works. If it's just his way, that's fine.

[dballard125]

Majesto definitely had the best gallop out. They have to be looked at relative to the trip as well.

distance traveled = Nyquist ran 31 more feet (or approx 3 more lengths) during the running of the race.

peak speed = Nyquist ranked 2/10 with 39.9mph , Majesto ranked 9/10 with 38.7mph (the slowest peak speed was the other stretch runner in the race Fellowship)

Majesto is a very nice horse, but he ran a much different race than Nyquist and Mohaymen.

That's the one thing about Nyquist. He can cruise at 40 mph, as shown in the FD...or gun it to 43 mph, as shown in the San Vicente. The only question that I have at this point is, can he get 1 1/4 miles. He's by far the class of this field. He runs fast enough to win races. He can rate and is a professional. It all comes down to the distance. His DI suggests it will be a problem...but I am inclined to think he is good enough to overcome it against this field.

[ArlJim78]

From what the clickers & everyone else us saying from GR's workouts, they've fixed the lead change problems & his gallop outs are strong & this horse is coming into his own.

Wait & read about his last workout on Monday, this horse had 6 weeks off for a reason, Asmussen knows what this horse is capable of, & he's been working with him for 6 weeks, this horse is getting better & better.
Did the clickers mention if they have fixed it now so that he doesn't run a Z pattern in the stretch like he did last time?

[SecretAgentMan]

Did the clickers mention if they have fixed it now so that he doesn't run a Z pattern in the stretch like he did last time?




Asmussen stated he looked really good running down the stretch, & the clockers agreed. Let's watch his last workout coming up Monday.

[Robert Fischer]

Best gallop out in Fl Derby would have been Majesto as he pasted Nyq by lengths.

http://stevebyk.com/broadcast/hour-3-steve-haskin-2/

'23:40 - 25:30' on the recording: Steve Haskin discusses MAJESTO'S impressive gallop-out

[Secondbest]

That's the one thing about Nyquist. He can cruise at 40 mph, as shown in the FD...or gun it to 43 mph, as shown in the San Vicente. The only question that I have at this point is, can he get 1 1/4 miles. He's by far the class of this field. He runs fast enough to win races. He can rate and is a professional. It all comes down to the distance. His DI suggests it will be a problem...but I am inclined to think he is good enough to overcome it against this field.
Your right about his breeding.It says no to the distance but this field looks weak so Maybe no one Will be able to run him down.
Tough call.