Pic 3s

[Valuist]

Am I crazy, or have these become bad bets over the years? I remember when the bet came out in the early 90s, being alive going into the 3rd leg was exciting; you really had no idea how crazy the will pays would be. I remember hitting one with two 4-1s and a 7-2 and a $2 ticket returned about $500. If you could beat two favorites, or just one heavy favorite, even if it was just the second or third choices, the payoff would far exceed the parlay.

So what has changed? Has it been the public figured out that you had to spread and not just try to hammer 2 or 3 tickets? Or has it been the lower bet limits have caused the public to spread far greater than they used to? Are the fields smaller?

My advice to any new bettor? Learn win, exacta and trifecta wagering. Some races, you can really get a good handle on. But within three consecutive races, chances are very good there's at least one race you don't have a great grasp on, or are chaotic. Don't listen to the talking heads at TVG who keep preaching Pic 4s.

[Speed Figure]

Pick 3's are still good, but you need a nice price to make some money. I believe it all depends on the size of your ticket. I try to keep my tickets at $45 and below. I'm always trying to get no less then 3.5 times ticket cost.

[SG4]

The pick 3 was my go to bet for a long time, and now I've almost abandoned it. I agree that for whatever reason I used to see a lot better payoffs when compared to the parlay, and I don't feel that same way nowadays. This is mainly aimed at NY & Cal tracks, who just happen to have the highest takeouts as well so that has to account for some of it. Keeneland I still feel like the pick 3 has value, and GP payouts aren't bad either, but with the rolling pick 3's it's hard to find large enough pools all the time to be attractive.

[Robert Fischer]

Single?

P3 is a 'singles' bet

When you can beat a 'public-single', or 'single' a race where the public has to spread, you have a big advantage.

Some good reasons to build a P3 sequence:
A-Do you see vulnerable heavy-favorite that the public will single?
B-Do you have a non-favorite that you feel is a single?

Just one of these races makes for a strong reason for a Weekend Warrior to construct a P3. (Pros will wait for multiple occurrences in the same sequence to create a 'Lollapalooza Effect').

When there is a heavy favorite that you hate and plan to play against, you can use several horses in a 'spread' for that race.



Additional Trick Play for Weekend Warriors:
Consider using your 'Single' or 'Play-Against' legs as your 1st and/or 2nd legs of the pick-3 and then Singling a heavy Favorite(or using the 2 Co-Favorites) for the final leg.
Now if you are alive to the final leg, you have the option of hedging with some decent priced horses on top in the Exacta.



Example Tickets:

LEG1/LEG2/LEG3
BCDE/ABC/AB
^^I think the favorite in the first leg will not win. I feel the 2nd leg is chalky. I used the favorites in the last leg to set up a hedge.

LEG1/LEG2/LEG3
ABC/C/AB
^^I think a non-favorite is strong enough to single in the 2nd leg.

[NorCalGreg]

Single?

P3 is a 'singles' bet

When you can beat a 'public-single', or 'single' a race where the public has to spread, you have a big advantage.

Some good reasons to build a P3 sequence:
A-Do you see vulnerable heavy-favorite that the public will single?
B-Do you have a non-favorite that you feel is a single?

Just one of these races makes for a strong reason for a Weekend Warrior to construct a P3. (Pros will wait for multiple occurrences in the same sequence to create a 'Lollapalooza Effect').

When there is a heavy favorite that you hate and plan to play against, you can use several horses in a 'spread' for that race.



Additional Trick Play for Weekend Warriors:
Consider using your 'Single' or 'Play-Against' legs as your 1st and/or 2nd legs of the pick-3 and then Singling a heavy Favorite(or using the 2 Co-Favorites) for the final leg.
Now if you are alive to the final leg, you have the option of hedging with some decent priced horses on top in the Exacta.



Example Tickets:

LEG1/LEG2/LEG3
BCDE/ABC/AB
^^I think the favorite in the first leg will not win. I feel the 2nd leg is chalky. I used the favorites in the last leg to set up a hedge.

LEG1/LEG2/LEG3
ABC/C/AB
^^I think a non-favorite is strong enough to single in the 2nd leg.

A-Do you see vulnerable heavy-favorite that the public will single?

Good post. We saw this in action yesterday, with CONSTELLATION @ AQ

Maybe wasn't so obvious he was vulnerable--but was certainly obvious he was going to be a singleton on 75%+ of tickets. Had to go against that one--it paid off.