Monday night madness at Mountaineer

[The_Knight_Sky]

Anyone here care to tackle the 8th race at challenging Mountaineer Park?
It's TVG televised and going off at 9:55 pm ET.

As I do on my other forum, I dole out a $100 cyberdollars to all players.
So let's see what you guys can come up with in this $10-8,000 claiming route.

MNR: 8th race past performances courtesy of BRIS (http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/mnrcomp0628.pdf)

[sq764]

8th race using Validator 3, I came up with 7/5/3 and 5 seems to be the best value.. So give me $50 WP on 5..

[Buckeye]

sq764,

Very impressive!

[Binder]

Great to see Val 3 nailed that 5 horse
$19 and $10
Nice going Sq


Binder
V/DC Messenger

[Buckeye]

Oops!
That would be a great pick in tonight's (Sunday) 8th race!
Were you picking for tonight or tomorrow? :)

[trying2win]

Before you give SQ credit, re-read the thread title again...also the past performances are for Monday, June 28/04, not Sunday, June 27/04.

T2W

[sq764]

Geez, tough crowd.. I was throwing them out for the 8th topnight, I didn't notice the Monday mention..

I don't use pp's for Mnr..

[The_Knight_Sky]

Hold off on those accolades fellas.
The race posted is going off on Monday night.

You're looking at Sunday's 8th results. :D

Having said that - I'll take the opportunity to correct my own little flub -
the claiming price range is from $10-9,000.

BTW: can anyone enlighten this newbie on The Validator?

[Buckeye]

Originally posted by sq764
I don't use pp's for Mnr..

I wouldn't change anything. :cool:

How about tonight's 10th? Use whatever you used before. :)

[sq764]

1) I didn't notice the Monday on the post (I used tonight's 8th)

2) I also didn't factor in the 7 being scratched, so the 5 actually was on top after the scratch:


MNR0627 8 8.3 D AL 3 F $25,000 RC=71 118 lbs
„¡„Ÿ„¦„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¦„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¦„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ „¦„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¦„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¦„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¦„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ „Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¦„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¦„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¢ „¡„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¦„Ÿ„¢
„_#„_PNcNAME Ld „_ SR„_ EPR„_ LPR„_ CPR„_ TT„_ HID„_ FW„_ FX„_ „_ TOT I„_R„_
„¥„Ÿ„©„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„©„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„©„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ „©„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„©„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„©„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„©„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ „Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„©„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„©„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„§ „¥„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„©„Ÿ„§
„_1„_ 2 JAZZ 1 „_ 55„_ 89.33„_ 89.83„_ 93.88„_ 93.58„_ 91.37„_ 95.13„_ 97.56„_ „_650.69„_4„_
„_2„_ 3 LEGEN3 „_ 59„_ 82.39„_100.00„_ 95.72„_ 98.33„_100.00„_100.00„_ 98.37„_ „_674.81„_2„_
„_3„_ 4 WILD 1 „_ 45„_ 81.80„_ 85.52„_ 87.71„_100.00„_ 92.69„_ 89.44„_ 94.58„_ „_631.74„_5„_
„_4„_ 5 LINNI2 „_ 65„_100.00„_ 90.98„_100.00„_ 93.58„_ 92.03„_ 99.64„_100.00„_ „_676.23„_1„_
„_5„_ 9 STAR 2 „_ 48„_ 87.14„_ 83.33„_ 89.30„_ 89.29„_ 85.12„_ 89.73„_ 96.59„_ „_620.49„_6„_
„_6„_10 J B'S2 „_ 56„_ 84.77„_ 95.40„_ 94.50„_ 89.84„_ 92.36„_ 97.54„_ 98.88„_ „_653.29„_3„_
„¤„Ÿ„¨„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¨„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¨„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ „¨„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¨„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¨„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¨„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ „Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¨„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¨„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„£ „¤„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„Ÿ„¨„Ÿ„£

[sq764]

Additionally... If anyone has any questions about the readout I posted, please email me privately (as I know they are not very legible, and I also am not trying to plug the program, just posting picks.. I have zero interest in anyone using Validator)

[trying2win]

Originally posted by The_Knight_Sky
[B]Anyone here care to tackle the 8th race at challenging Mountaineer Park?
It's TVG televised and going off at 9:55 pm ET.

As I do on my other forum, I dole out a $100 cyberdollars to all players.


Knight Sky,

I'm probably being naive in asking this, but are you offering real money and/or merchandise as prizes?...like they do on "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire"?

Does the player who makes the most money with cyber dollars, just get an ego trip with all the glory but no money, , or can he or she win a real trip with cash, to an exotic location etc?

T2W

[sq764]

I come up with 1/8/10.. All kinda short for me.. A Pass race..

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by trying2win
Knight Sky,

I'm probably being naive in asking this, but are you offering real money and/or merchandise as prizes?...like they do on "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire"?

Does the player who makes the most money with cyber dollars, just get an ego trip with all the glory but no money, , or can he or she win a real trip with cash, to an exotic location etc?

T2W
LOL you read me very well trying2win,
I'll trade my good looks for Regis' money though. :D

My other site is down right now and can't score the Queens Plate contest
I had up there, so thought I'd play with you guys in the interim.

Cyberdollars doled out of my own pocket - just the way
I know how to run these. No prize here as it's not a formal contest
but who knows what the future holds.

[Buckeye]

The 8 and 10 do look good. Also like 2 and 4.

Let's go with a $1 tri part-wheel: 4,8,10/1,2,4,6,8,10/1,2,4,6,8,10

[sq764]

1 mtp.. Give me the 1,8 over 1,8,10 over all over all super

[Buckeye]

sq764,

Very impressive!
I mean, you had all three in the money, and you were right about there being no value here.

My ticket cost $60 and the $1 tri only paid $53.40

[trying2win]

Knight Sky,

That's what I figured. No real money for prizes.

BTW...When Regis used to host "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire" on a regular basis, he used to say in his New Yawk accent..."The next question is for 2000 dollahs".

T2W

[sq764]

Buckeye, that would have been a nice bet..

The best bet would have been 1,8,10 with 1,8,10 with 1,8,10 with all super.. Cheap and would have gotten us $690..

[The_Knight_Sky]

The key for me in this race is to determine if the ML favorite
is as good as he looks on paper. Trainer Louis Ruberto jr. is no slouch
(especially off claims) and he's spotting them well.

Boy Genius won his last on a stretchout but he's been standing
around in the barn for a month. If this was Belmont Park,
I'd take a stand and play against. But with the lax workout reporting
at Mountaineer, I'd have to say Ruberto jr. is probably keeping him
sharp in the mornings. After all he's winning at a 50% clip!

Tough to play against those kind of numbers.
I'd say he's got half the race's probability in his favor and
doesn't look like fat mutuels will be on the board after this one.
Will wait for the scratches and track conditions posted on Monday night,
then concoct an action play of some sort.

[sq764]

Regardless, I like the initiative to focus on a race like this...

I stopped playing after the 5th tonight, (Unfortunately), but maybe tomorrow night the focus will be there..

[Jed]

$100 exacta 9 / 5

[Big Bill]

5-9-3

Big Bill

[azibuck]

How did you get comp PP's from Mnr? I've got a list for many other tracks, but don't know the "code" for Mnr. Thanks,

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by azibuck
How did you get comp PP's from Mnr?
I've got a list for many other tracks, but don't know the "code" for Mnr. Thanks,

From their website:
http://www.mtrgaming.com/racing/liveracing.html

the code is 631 :)

[azibuck]

$60 exacta 9-6
$16 exacta 6-9
$2 trifecta 9/6/All
$1 trifecta 6/9/All

The 5 will bounce, the 9 is at the right level and ready, and the 6 has had his form darkened for this opportunity.

[Hammerhead]

50 to w/p #1

[BIG RED]

What time will this go off about??

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by Hammerhead
50 to w/p #1

The scratches are up and #1 Callum is scratched.

Current Weather-Cloudy, Turf-Off, Dirt-Good

Let's offer up some in-depth analysis this evening, shall we? ;)

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by BIG RED
What time will this go off about??

slated for 9:55 Eastern time

[BIG RED]

I see 4 I like, get it down to 2 hopey. 1579:D

[The_Knight_Sky]

Okay so here's the dilemma:

We've got an even money ML favorite in Boy Genius
trained by Louis Ruberto jr. who's won 10 of 20 starts
and been in the exacta 15 of those times!

He sends out his 10 year old horse off a 34 day layup
after demolishing them at this level by 6 3/4 lengths
last out. So why not a class up, Lou?

Even though he looks to be the controlling speed
here, the wild card is the horse just inside of him
#4 Major Bay who's going sprint-sprint-route.
This same pattern led to a win last year at the Mountain.
A seasonal pattern also, as it occurred on July 18, 2003.
He may be sent hell-bent-for-leather, making Boy Genius
work a little bit.

The ones I like also have a pair of positive jockey switches
in #9 Lightening Ball and #10 Bandana who exit the same race
and figure to be cleverly placed in striking range.
Lightening Ball gets a switch to Oswald Periera
and Bandana gets Ricardo Feliciano both who've won
on their respective horses. They might be the ones that offer
hidden value here. I'll venture they'll both go off more than
5/1 and will split the C-note in half.

$50 win #9 and #10

[Crosley]

# 7 win $30
$8 Ex Box 47 $16
Tri 457/457810/4578910 $54

[BIG RED]

$15 exacta box 5-7-9 Don't like Dodie Duys personally, but, just hit the ex.

[SAL]

$2 tri

7, 9 / 4, 6, 7, 9 / 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10



7 / all / 4, 6, 9


$10 win 7

[azibuck]

Track is sloppy, but I'm sticking with what I picked based on lifetime best off track speed of the 6 and 9.

[BIG RED]

I guess we could be doing this in the war room:cool:

[tdthomas]

$5 exacta box 4-9-10
$1 tri 4-5-9-10/-4-5-6-9-10/4-5-6-7-9-10
$1 exacta box 4-9-10/6

[BIG RED]

Make mine $4 tri box 5-7-9-10

[Buckeye]

$1 tri 8,9/4,5,8,9/all ($54)
and
$46 win #8

[superfecta]

Watching it now (if you can call it that)couldn't tell squat about the race.

[BIG RED]

Looks like BIG BILL had the 3 there, if its official, Heck I couldn't see diddly

[tdthomas]

THATS why I don't play Mountaineer. The 3? HaHaHa. The old pull the worst horse out of the fog to break up my bets trick. LOL.

[The_Knight_Sky]

I hadn't the foggiest notion until the last 3 strides they appeared before the wire.
The #9 Lightening Ball opened at 5/1 but was hammered and paid an underlaid
$7.60 to win.

The order of finish 9-3-10
$2 exacta 209.20

I'd post the link to the chart, but I doubt the chartman
saw more than the track announcer who gave out a promo for a boxing match
during his call. LOL

My 100 cyberbucks yielded a return of 190 only.
Oh well, thanks for the response fellas.
We gotta do this again sometime. Perhaps in better weather in Chester, WVA.
;)

[Crosley]

My 7 was fouled at the top of the stretch by the 9.

[BIG RED]

Has anyone SEEN the #5 yet:D

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by BIG RED
Has anyone SEEN the #5 yet:D

In the opening stages #5 established position at the rail
but the #4 Major Bay was rushed up to challenge entering the turn.
Then the fog took over. I'm quite sure the duel ensued and had a
telling effect on the 10 year old favorite.

Tough to take a low price on a senile thoroughbred to repeat.:D

[Big Bill]

An exacta box on my three picks (5-9-3) would have returned $ 209.20.

The order of finish 9-3-10

Big bill

[Buddha]

Originally posted by Crosley
My 7 was fouled at the top of the stretch by the 9.

Kinda funny you say that. I heard one of the jocks say that if his horse didnt run good he was going to claim interference on the backstretch :)

[JustMissed]

Buddha, I couldn't take the fog and quit betting after the 6th race.

I played Flagler Dog Track betting off the tote board and won more money than I have the last three nights.

Brought back a lot of fun memories, playing the dogs.

JM
:)

[The_Knight_Sky]

As an icing on the cake, here's the chart of the race.

(make of it what you will) MNR: 8th race Monday (http://www.tsnhorse.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=MNR&date=2004-06-28&race=8)

Chalk one up for the seasonal pattern seekers.
The Capestro-Periera combo clicks again on the switcheroo.
They also won on an off track last year (July 4th 2003 paying $7.20)


Just for the record Big Bill what made you include the 35/1 horse?

[Big Bill]

The_Knight_Sky

The three horse had the second highest Brohammer/Sartin Average Pace rating the way I calculate them. The five had the highest and the nine the third best.

And the way I calculate them means using pace ratings and not fps calculations.

Big Bill