Louisiana Derby

[NorCalGreg]

Thought there was already a LA Derby thread--if so, I can't find it.

This is the Crown Jewel of them all--with the winner looking straight at Kentucky. I've looked at every angle of the probable pace set-up here--this 9F dirt affair has plenty of early pace pressure, setting up for a johnny-come-lately.
:2: Greenpointcrusader @ 7/2 figures right there--but I'm looking for a larger slice of this pie. You can have Mo Tom @ 5/2--I'm looking dead at the Pletcher/Castellano 10-1ML :3: BATTERY to have a good shot today. With a good trip, this sets up well for him to come on and take this thing.

:3: Battery to win--and a swing for the fences with that one keyed up in exacta W/ :2: Greenpointcrusader & 15-1 shot :5: Candy My Boy

Good Luck All

-NCG☮

[mannyberrios]

Good luck

[Robert Fischer]

Race looks wide open to me, NCG.

No superstar here (at least none that has blossomed yet).

:6: Mo Tom reminds me of a poor man's Street Sense a little bit. His price will not be great, and he's pace/trip dependent(aren't we all...), but he's my consideration as a 'key' horse among the lower odds horses in the dime supers and .50Tris


'Salt' with your obvious contenders and/or some of these longer shots:

:5: Candy My Boy - Ran against the grain last time and ran perfectly respectable considering. Probably needs a DREAM trip to contend for a win here, but he's a price that wants a piece.

:9: Dazzling Gem - is 3X the price of :2: Greenpointcrusader and they look similar to me today. Dazzling Gem has the added temptation of an unknown ceiling potential...

:8: Uncle Walter - Fired a 'Dud' last time. Was that an anomaly? Big price in a wide open race...

:3: Battery - On the road to the Queen's Plate?? Would be a big surprise here, but he's got stamina. Could certainly get a piece with a great trip and his 'A' game...

[Dr Gonzo]

No respect for :1: GUN RUNNER ?

[PressThePace]

I personally think :1: Gun Runner is the horse to beat, but I'm intrigued a little by the :4: Conquest Windycity .

I'll play an Ex Wheel :1: , :4: / :3: , :9: for 4 units and reverse it for 2 units.

[NorCalGreg]

No respect for :1: GUN RUNNER ?


It's early yet, Dr G...someone will come along championing the :1:

I find it hard to believe DRF is still hanging on to Uncle Walter, after that horse embarrassed himself, his lineage, his connections, and probably the stable boy...after that last debacle.

[Robert Fischer]

I personally think :1: Gun Runner is the horse to beat, but I'm intrigued a little by the :4: Conquest Windycity .

I'll play an Ex Wheel :1: , :4: / :3: , :9: for 4 units and reverse it for 2 units.

Your 4 looks pretty good.

[Nitro]

FG – early picks
R#10 – 1-6 W/ 9-3-4

[no breathalyzer]

:11: Forevamo i will be betting w/p

[Winger]

:1: , :11:
:1: , :11: , :6: , :5:
:1: , :11: , :6: , :2: , :5:
:1: , :11: , :6: , :2: , :5: , :9:

Nothing exciting here. I'll do a 10 cent super for $5.40

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:3::5:/:3::5::6:/:3::5::6::9::11:

[Speed Figure]

One highlighted overlay with the #9. Top 3 projected pace horses are #9,#4,#2,#5,#11 top 3 late horses are #8,#2,#6.

[Michael]

I think Gun Runner's the one to beat. at 6/1 atm... seems like a deal. Imagine I'd take 4/1 and be happy.

[barahona44]

When I saw that Robby Alvarado got Uncle Walter, I got interested.I rarely bet jockeys unless it's an eeny-meeney-miney-moe situation, but I've gotten some good prices out of Alvarado in the past .Don't think he"ll win but could be worth a show bet.

[NorCalGreg]

One highlighted overlay with the #9. Top 3 projected pace horses are #9,#4,#2,#5,#11 top 3 late horses are #8,#2,#6.

So no love for :3: Battery?

[Nitro]

FG – early picks
R#10 – 1-6 W/ 9-3-4


FG –
R#10 – 6-2 W/ 1-9-3 @ 10 mins to post

[barahona44]

So no love for :3: Battery?
Looks like "Battery's Not Included". :)

[Speed Figure]

So no love for :3: Battery?
Depends on which line is used. The software used 3rd back. Using his last line he doesn't make it into the top 5.

[Speed Figure]

pp's for #3.

[ctownraces@bp]

playing #8 and #11 to win and using the #4 and #6 in the exotics with them

[Tee]

Can :8: Uncle Walter get a decent trip from the outside post?

Let's see how much kick :11: Forevamo has late.

[Robert Fischer]

26 /26/7/13459
26/26/13459/7

dime super = $2

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm on the crowds top 4. No bet. Next!

I do think Greenpointcrusader is best. Mo Tom is too slow. Gun Runner might bounce, And Candy My Boy might run off only to get caught. Will take a minor play on :2: :5: box top heavy.

[Robert Fischer]

Thought :1:Gun Runner would lug-in and tire.
He lugged in but won easily.

My 'toss-horses' are killing me this Derby prep season..

[PressThePace]

I personally think :1: Gun Runner is the horse to beat, but I'm intrigued a little by the :4: Conquest Windycity .

I'll play an Ex Wheel :1: , :4: / :3: , :9: for 4 units and reverse it for 2 units.


It's like losing a game by a point. You're still a loser. I'd rather lose by 20.

[Nitro]

FG – early picks
R#10 – 1-6 W/ 9-3-4


FG –
R#10 – 6-2 W/ 1-9-3 @ 10 mins to post

Results:

R #10 = 1-7-9-6 - - No clues on the LS Placer
.
.

[NorCalGreg]

Looks like "Battery's Not Included". :)


haha that was cold, barahona :D I got no business trying to handicap these classy races anyway--everyone is TRYING to win at this level.

[Dr Gonzo]

haha that was cold, barahona :D I got no business trying to handicap these classy races anyway--everyone is TRYING to win at this level.

Don't feel bad, Greg. That charlatan, Michael Pizzolla, had Gun Runner's fair odds at 11-1.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL-CcKzrdkg

[letswastemoney]

Mo Tom always finds trouble.

I wonder if it would have been better for Lanerie to try for a sweeping outside move turning for home, even if it meant losing ground.

[zico20]

Mo Tom always finds trouble.

I wonder if it would have been better for Lanerie to try for a sweeping outside move turning for home, even if it meant losing ground.

So you don't think it was Lanerie's fault for that awful ride? He should have never went to the rail. No doubt that was the last time he will ever ride the horse.

[letswastemoney]

So you don't think it was Lanerie's fault for that awful ride? He should have never went to the rail. No doubt that was the last time he will ever ride the horse.I actually agree. Twice in a row now...connections need to give someone else a chance on him.

[Speed Figure]

Don't feel bad, Greg. That charlatan, Michael Pizzolla, had Gun Runner's fair odds at 11-1.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL-CcKzrdkgIs that a bad thing?

[thespaah]

Thought there was already a LA Derby thread--if so, I can't find it.

This is the Crown Jewel of them all--with the winner looking straight at Kentucky. I've looked at every angle of the probable pace set-up here--this 9F dirt affair has plenty of early pace pressure, setting up for a johnny-come-lately.
:2: Greenpointcrusader @ 7/2 figures right there--but I'm looking for a larger slice of this pie. You can have Mo Tom @ 5/2--I'm looking dead at the Pletcher/Castellano 10-1ML :3: BATTERY to have a good shot today. With a good trip, this sets up well for him to come on and take this thing.

:3: Battery to win--and a swing for the fences with that one keyed up in exacta W/ :2: Greenpointcrusader & 15-1 shot :5: Candy My Boy

Good Luck All

-NCG☮
Following up on your comment regarding this particular prep being the one that looks stright at the Derby..
I rolled back the DVR a few times to look at Gun Runner in the stretch.
The horse needs additional work. He was trying to get in to the rail in mid stretch. At this point, 9 furlongs looks to be this one's limit. The gallop out looked ok. Nothing to write home about.
with 6 weeks to go, no reason to dismiss this one. I think Gun Runner is a good one....