Belmont turf

[Valuist]

It seems like every single turf race at Belmont is run the same way. The gate opens and all the riders put a stranglehold on their mounts. They go the first quarter in :25 and the winner is either the leader on within a length. I don't think its so much a front running bias but a very unaggressive riding colony.

[Tom]

Normally, I do well on turf, but this year I cannot see too many winners even after the fact. I am no longer playing any NYRA turf races.

[Whitehos]

Are you guys watching the same turf races I am?

[Tee]

From what I have seen over the years, winners on the inner turf are very close or on the lead when the field turns for home.

The Widener turf course plays more like most turf races are run & won - from well off the pace.

[Valuist]

Here's some numbers for the past 3 weeks on the turf (either course) at Belmont:

42 races
24 races won by horses no more than 2 lengths from the lead after 1/4 mile
That's almost 60% won by speed or pressers. These are routes on grass, not SoCal sprints

Broken down between inner and regular courses, it doesn't make much difference:

inner: 10 out of 18 won by horses 2 lengths out or less after 1/4 mile
main turf: 14 out of 24

As for deep closers, they are almost automatic toss outs; only 5 out of 42 winners came from 7.5 lengths out (or more).

[Tee]

What exactly does a 42 race sample tell?

Take the example races & see where the winner(s) position were when the real racing takes shape? Say in the last 1/4 or 1/8th of the race not the early stages.

[Niko]

The jockeys found a way to make money. If there's a superior or very good early running horse all the other horses go slow up front allowing the best early horse to relax and then finish full of run. Then it's off to the cashiers window.
__Sorry, just a little cynical after watching how some races have been run lately and how those horses were bet.
I refuse to play a turf race with a lot of early speed now unless it's a stakes race.

[Turf2Dirt]

Originally posted by teeitup
What exactly does a 42 race sample tell?

Take the example races & see where the winner(s) position were when the real racing takes shape? Say in the last 1/4 or 1/8th of the race not the early stages.

I'm pretty sure 99% of the winners were very close to the lead at the eighth pole:rolleyes:

[Tee]

Originally posted by Valuist
Here's some numbers for the past 3 weeks on the turf (either course) at Belmont:

42 races
24 races won by horses no more than 2 lengths from the lead after 1/4 mile


Valuist,

I get the same numbers that you have. Over the last 42 races 24 have been one by horses no more than 2 lengths off the lead after a 1/4 mile has been run.

Now for the other 69 races that were run prior to the last 3 weeks. 31 of those races have been one using the same standard.

17 on the inner & 14 on the main.

From what I could see on the result charts, the recent activity could be a result of shorter fields - what do you think?

Anyway, for the most part I see the same patterns on the inner turf. The jocks know when to make their move to get their horses into position to win the race.

Shorter prices winners on the main track this year have very similar styles to the inner turf winners. The greater # of longshot winners have been coming from a bit further off the pace & the biggest longshot winners have surprised everyone with close to the pace victories(2 40/1+ horses.)

17 gate to wire winners
9 on the main
8 on the inner

Just about half of these gate to wire winners have come in the last 3 weeks - shorter fields again perhaps?

[Valuist]

I could be partly that but I think there's more to it than that. I have seen the Belmont turf get speed favoring in other years but I've never seen so many races at a US track look like they were being run European-style. Everyone crawls early, or "covers up", then sprints to the wire from the quarter pole. If its a bias, we won't necessarily see the same thing at Saratoga. If its the riders, it'll be more of the same.

[TravisVOX]

I too have noticed the "slow early, fast late" tendency of the Belmont lawn this season. I don't understand it. Turf racing has always had the generic tilt towards such a style, in that, closing times were more important than early pace figures. However, it does seem as though these jockey's have relegated themselves into this "groove." Might be the smaller fields, that's a good suggestion. Will have to keep an eye on this.

[cj]

Before you guys jump to conclusions, have you considered that maybe the runup has been shortened considerably as it has on the dirt course this year? Food for thought...

[Valuist]

I think all these closing types who've had no chance against dawdling paces could be good bets when they ship to tracks like Monmouth.

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Before you guys jump to conclusions, have you considered that maybe the runup has been shortened considerably as it has on the dirt course this year? Food for thought...

That may not be it, but if it is, the same thing happened at Monmouth Sunday. Only routers went down the homestretch in the runup, sprinters just galloped around the clubhouse turn and went into the backstretch a little. And two of the three turf races ran the way the Belmont turf has been described in this thread.

The other race, you ask? Why, the winner of the G1 Barbados Gold Cup set a track record. ;)

But the runup may be what's causing trends like this.

[andicap]

Have you guys also controlled for the rails being up and down.

The first fractions of the race are considerably slower depending on when the rail are up or not!

[Valuist]

No I hadn't looked at that. I really haven't focused much on the fractions because when the turf is rock hard, they can get very fast. I'm going by visual observation. When an entire field is bunched within 4-5 lengths down the backside and the riders are strangling their horses, I don't care what the teletimer says. I know its a slow pace. Running second on the outside on turf used to be a tough trip; now its a great trip.

[cj]

Maybe I'm missing something, but turf races are usually run this way. They generally favor come from behind horses. The stronger that factor becomes, the slower the front end types go until they are able to hang on. It happens all the time. From the stats you guys posted, it looks like things have evened out.

By the way, the inner course has always favored types who lay closer up than the Widener course. One more turn, and the turns are tighter.

[Tee]

Here's what I am finding in regards to the no more than 2 lengths after 1/4 mile "phenomenon.:)

I'll go from the start of the meeting thru to Sunday.

In no particular order
1) Yielding turf courses
2) MSW Races
3) Races won gate to wire
4)Smaller than average fields(I'm using less than 8.)
5) Combination of above factors

Out of the 55 races(I count) that have been won using the no more than 2 lengths out if it after 1/4 mile standard - approximately 39-40(I'm not counting again tonight lol) have been won with the above conditions.

I am concluding that there is nothing that far out of the ordinary happening on the turf course(s) at Belmont.

[Suff]

Originally posted by teeitup
Here's what I am finding in regards to the no more than 2 lengths after 1/4 mile "phenomenon.:)

far out of the ordinary happening on the turf course(s) at Belmont.

you left out the fact that you go goo-goo, ga ga for TONER on the NY lawn.


What? I don't pay attenion to you? I throw everything you say into my toolbox

[Tee]

Originally posted by Suff
you left out the fact that you go goo-goo, ga ga for TONER on the NY lawn.


Suff,

Don't give away all my secrets:) :)

The lawn - A Land of Dreams:D

[Valuist]

A new week and the first turf race of the week (finally) went to a closer. But after that, the other 3 turf races looked like the same old, same old. One wire job and two very up close horses completed the other 2 races. Royal Affirmed at $8.90 was a gift from the wagering gods.

[Valuist]

I think some of these closers who've had no chance to win the past (nearly) 3 months are going to make for some juicy overlays. Let's hope the rain stays away.