Win% by Win, Place and Exacta Pools

[Ray2000]

OK, just a bit of fun here, I'm testing out ... "Looking for Strangeness" on the toteboard at 0 MTP (or slightly after it)
Some races will have nothing remarkable, some may show heavy over-betting, others may show overlooked horses in some pool.

This is a test on Fraser but I'll be doing BigM, Yonkers and/or Woodbine later.
I'll include Robot's numbers on chance to Place ... finish 1st or 2nd, not just second.

Just testing how this post formats. Feel free to add your picks, comments...

Here's Fraser R5 as an example, #7 seems a overlay in the place pool


Pool Probs: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Win pool 24% 6% 15% 3% 4% 5% 27% 10% 6%
Place Pool 22% 6% 18% 5% 5% 6% 19% 13% 6%
Exacta Pool 27% 6% 6% 2% 2% 9% 26% 15% 8%

Chance to Place 47% 13% 26% 5% 8% 13% 50% 24% 14%

Pools MTP 0 Minutes
Win 2,366
Place 1,070
Exacta 5,713

[Ray2000]

Yonkers 1
Win Prob's by: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Win pool 29% 34% 5% 6% 23% 2% 2%
Place Pool 22% 30% 10% 9% 22% 5% 2%
Exacta Pool 31% 34% 2% 4% 22% 4% 3%

Place Chance 57% 63% 9% 12% 47% 6% 5%

Pools MTP 0 Minutes
Win $2,826
Place $640
Exacta $6,740

#1 horse to place

[Ray2000]

Meadowlands 2
Win Prob's by: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Win pool 2% 10% 32% 3% 18% 4% 2% 17% 11% 2%
Place Pool 1% 13% 31% 4% 12% 5% 2% 18% 14% 1%
Exacta Pool 5% 17% 21% 2% 11% 5% 4% 14% 19% 3%

Place Chance 6% 25% 53% 5% 33% 9% 6% 33% 27% 5%

Pools MTP 0 Minutes
Win $4,153
Place $1,471
Exacta $13,000


#9 being used a lot in the Exacta, E box 953, place 9

[Ray2000]

Meadowlands 3
Win Prob's by: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Win pool 7% 3% 4% 8% 19% 12% 19% 10% 16% 2%
Place Pool 5% 4% 6% 10% 18% 13% 17% 8% 19% 2%
Exacta Pool 9% 5% 3% 4% 16% 13% 18% 9% 21% 2%

Place Chance 16% 8% 8% 14% 36% 25% 36% 20% 34% 4%

Pools MTP 0 Minutes
Win $8,748
Place $3,256
Exacta $31,287



same as before ...#9 being used a lot in the Exacta, E box 579, place 9

[Ray2000]

Meadowlands 4
Win Prob's by: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Win pool 20% 5% 17% 7% 18% 18% 9% 2% 4%
Place Pool 19% 8% 18% 6% 18% 15% 8% 2% 6%
Exacta Pool 17% 8% 10% 4% 20% 20% 11% 3% 6%

Place Chance 38% 12% 30% 14% 36% 36% 20% 4% 10%

Pools MTP 0 Minutes
Win $15,180
Place $5,163
Exacta $38,340



Ex box 761, place 7

[Ray2000]

That's all folks, Happy Easter

[davew]

I am curious on how you calculate the exacta % or is it a number that you get from your ADW?

The reason I ask is you can theoretically calculate the percentage of exactas with a horse in win position as well as place position.

There were a couple books in the 80's with the Dr Z's formula (Ziemba?) and it is good in theory but hard n practice. Just a couple guys watching the pools can correct any inefficiency's. It has become harder since then as race betting interests have gotten lower and track take has gotten larger. Simultcasting also has a big chunk of bets that do not become visible in the pool until it is too late to do anything about it.

I also find it interesting the size of pools - at AQU there may be 8-10X in win pool vs show poll and at OP the win pool may be 2-4X higher.

[hyipro]

To use keys in betting ? for example a .50 tri with 1/234/234/ is $18.00
yet the same bet with a box of 1-2-3-4 is $12.00 so what is the point of
using keys in betting ???

[EdZone]

To use keys in betting ? for example a .50 tri with 1/234/234/ is $18.00
yet the same bet with a box of 1-2-3-4 is $12.00 so what is the point of
using keys in betting ???

A $1.00 tri with 1/234/234/ is $6.00
A .50 tri with 1/234/234/ is only $3.00

[Nitro]

Meadowlands 3
Win Prob's by: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Win pool 7% 3% 4% 8% 19% 12% 19% 10% 16% 2%
Place Pool 5% 4% 6% 10% 18% 13% 17% 8% 19% 2%
Exacta Pool 9% 5% 3% 4% 16% 13% 18% 9% 21% 2%

Place Chance 16% 8% 8% 14% 36% 25% 36% 20% 34% 4%

Pools MTP 0 Minutes
Win $8,748
Place $3,256
Exacta $31,287



same as before ...#9 being used a lot in the Exacta, E box 579, place 9Hi Ray I've been recently experimenting at Meadowlands with the tote analysis I use and I came across your interesting thread. I wanted to compare what you did in Race#3 to what the analysis showed:
# Name.......... Driver M/L OD1 OD2 OD3 111
1 Giant T Davis, Bob 8 9 110
2 Mr Ridgetaker Yarock, David 10 21 118
3 Only In My Dreams Beltrami, Tony 12 25 176
4 Tagmaster Ciuffetelli, A 10 10 156
5 Celebrity Stimulus Glasser, David 5 2.5 96
6 Magglio Sisco, Allen 8 10 102
7 Baby Boy Grin Spriggs, Dein 4.5 3 98
8 King's Cavalier Offenberg, Dav 6 7 122
9 Cup Day Spur N Miller, Hannah 3.5 3.5 97
10 Swift Blizzard Minore, Paul 10 60 255
At each of the betting intervals the actual analysis provides a PAR value for the combined betting from all of the available pools on all the entries. At the same time a value is established for each entry. Then it just becomes a matter of comparing the PAR value with each Entry value for each of the Betting intervals. When viewing all of this information together, the betting patterns in most cases become very obvious because there's a definite relationship between the PAR value and the Entry values. That relationship and whether or not it changes during the betting cycle becomes the primary focus of each race. From there I’m able to determine at least 2 Key entries along with 2 or 3 others of betting interest. Very often the Entry values closest to PAR suggest the 2 Key entries.

Results:
1st 6-Magglio……….. $23.20 $12.00 $7.60
2nd 1-Giant T………............ - $8.80 $6.00
3rd 9-Cup Day Spur N……..........- - $4.00
4th 4-Tagmaster
$1.00 EXACTA 6-1 $113.30
$1.00 TRIFECTA 6-1-9 $716.30

So far it looks promising.

[Ray2000]

hyipro

Boxing 4 horses in the tri gives you 24 different combinations (tickets) of the 4 numbers

Keying a horse eliminates all combinations that don't have the 'Key' included so you're only buying 18 tickets.

Saves money if you're sure of the Key

This post back in Aug-2012 shows some ROIs on different ways to play 4 picks in the tri

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=96835


davew

The Win probabilities by the Exacta pool is calculated by using all the money bet on a horse in the Exacta pool, both top and bottom combo's, divided by the total pool amount.

This dollar figure has to be backed out of the current "Will-Pays" using the Exacta take-out for that track.

You're right about the robots watching the pools for any inefficiencies. Dr Z's formula:

0.319+0.559*(Ww)/(Wp)+(2.22-1.29*(Ww)) *(1-Take-0.829)) for Place Bet Expectation has been worked to death.

I'm calculating "Place Chance" by the old Harville way to calculate the chance of each horse to beat the field if the money on any entry is removed. Summing those cases gives the chance of finishing exactly 2nd.

Chance Placing, finishing 1st or 2nd, is then the prob of winning + prob of finishing 2nd - the product of the 2



Nitro
Interesting approach. PAR value (111 in example) is using total $$ in Win, Place and Exacta pools. I did this about the same way but used the average of the 3 Win% values. Total action / Total Pools is probably a better method.

[davew]

thanks for the explanation, but it brings another question

In a 8 horse race, their are 56 Exacta combinations - does your ADW give you a format you can get into a program to calculate things for you? I have tried the manual input way, and it takes me too much time.

[EdZone]

http://www.thoro-bet.com/cost-exotic-wager.html
or
Exotic Wager Calcular

[Ray2000]

Dave

I made a spreadsheet sometime back that I posted here, that gets live tote info from ebet.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=96664


It's been updated a few times, including an 'alternate' Win odds which uses the Exacta pool amounts on each horse and a Dr Z Expected Value for each entry.

Unfortunately that old sheet no longer works. (It had a weather report included and when intellicast changed their format, it overwrote some important cells.)

The version I'm using now (Boardwatch.xlsm) can be found at:
Weather info is N/A

http://ge.tt/2ssrjDZ2

It's main fault is the delay time it takes to update when you refresh queries. Sometimes as long as 20-30 seconds. You might still find it useful to see how I calculated the odds.




Ed
Does that site have live toteboard ?

[EdZone]

Ed
Does that site have live toteboard ?

I don't know. Itry goto www.thoro-bet.com to find out but it's down

[DeanT]

Ray,

Wondering, have you ever compared AB straight ex with A-B-all and A-All-B trifectas? Ex boxes with ab-ab-all etc?

I know (think I know, from what I've studied) they're poorer value, but I wonder what they are in harness, say at the Big M, with fields 9 or more.

I still hit the all button at the Big M at times, when I think we're looking at chaos, or I hate the fave and do just ok. I wonder if I need to find a better way to play those races.

[Ray2000]

Dean

I've never done the combo's using "All"

I've posted a link in Reply #7 to the result comparisons for some ticket structures I've done but accounting for scratches when using "ALL" has always stopped me :)

I could look at races with no scratches I guess, or use the full charts if they weren't so expensive.

[EdZone]

http://www.thoro-bet.com/cost-exotic-wager.html
or
Exotic Wager Calcular

You can also do your own math. I have wrote the formula. I hope it's right. Pls correct me if you find any mistake.

Formula:-
x = Multiply
T = Total number of horses
W = Number of horses Wheel by a key horse

Exacta Box T x T-1
Example:-
3 horses box = 3 x 2 = $6
5 horses box = 5 x 4 = $20
7 horses box = 7 x 6 = $42

Trifecta Box T x T-1 x T-2
Example:-
3 horses box = 3 x 2 x 1 = $6
5 horses box = 5 x 4 x 3 = $60
7 horses box = 7 x 6 x 5 = $210

Trifecta Key W x W-1
Example:-
1 Key horse wheel 3 horses = 3 x 2 = $6
1 Key horse wheel 5 horses = 5 x 4 = $20
1 Key horse wheel 7 horses = 7 x 6 = $42

Superfecta Box T x T-1 x T-2 x T-3
Example:-
4 horses box = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = $24
5 horses box = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 = $120
7 horses box = 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 = $840

Superfecta Key W x W-1 x W-2
Example:-
1 Key horse wheel 4 horses = 4 x 3 x 2 = $24
1 Key horse wheel 5 horses = 5 x 4 x 3 = $60
1 Key horse wheel 7 horses = 7 x 6 x 5 = $210

Pick3, 4, 5, 6...n
Just multiply total number of horses with each leg.

[DeanT]

Dean

I've never done the combo's using "All"

I've posted a link in Reply #7 to the result comparisons for some ticket structures I've done but accounting for scratches when using "ALL" has always stopped me :)

I could look at races with no scratches I guess, or use the full charts if they weren't so expensive.

Thanks for the response.

I have looked cursorily at it and sense it's a poor bet in many cases. But I don't have a lot of hard numbers to back that up (esp by field size)