10-1 versus 9-2 Fixed Odds

[ReplayRandall]

I'm going to give you a hypothetical betting situation on a weekend's worth of race-cards. Here's the deal: You must play 10 races only, and must bet either all 10-1 horses, or all 9-2 horses at fixed odds, with the pays being $22 or $11 respectively. The question is this: Which fixed odds horses, and why, would you choose as the best path to showing the highest ROI, if you played all 52 weeks of the year(520 bets), weekend cards only?

[Donttellmeshowme]

I'm going to give you a hypothetical betting situation on a weekend's worth of race-cards. Here's the deal: You must play 10 races only, and must bet either all 10-1 horses, or all 9-2 horses at fixed odds, with the pays being $22 or $11 respectively. The question is this: Which fixed odds horses, and why, would you choose as the best path to showing the highest ROI, if you played all 52 weeks of the year(520 bets), weekend cards only?



Great question. I would go with the 9/2 horse just because that horse probably has better form than the 10/1 horse and a better chance to win more than the 10/1 horse.

[ReplayRandall]

Great question. I would go with the 9/2 horse just because that horse probably has better form than the 10/1 horse and a better chance to win more than the 10/1 horse.

But the 9-2 horses have to win TWICE as much as the 10-1 horses, just to stay even. Do overall racing statistics show this to be the case, or can't this be verified?

[thaskalos]

My guess is that the choice we make wouldn't make a bit of difference in the end. The betting public as a whole is so proficient at the task of assigning win odds, that the long-term results would be the same either way.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I would go for 10-1. Because you mentioned this as Saturday cards which we know usually have quality fields, the 9/2 shots in those races are probably "cold" overlays so I'll go with 10-1

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I'm going to give you a hypothetical betting situation on a weekend's worth of race-cards. Here's the deal: You must play 10 races only, and must bet either all 10-1 horses, or all 9-2 horses at fixed odds, with the pays being $22 or $11 respectively. The question is this: Which fixed odds horses, and why, would you choose as the best path to showing the highest ROI, if you played all 52 weeks of the year(520 bets), weekend cards only?
Say you hit each bet at the tote percentage, so you hit 9.1% of the 10-1 shots and 18.2% at 9/2. The return would be the same. The flaw in the problem is whichever odds you pick, there may be more or less than 10 horses at those odds in your bettable races, so let's standardize the deal. If you assume there will be EXACTLY 10 horses at 10-1 to bet, or EXACTLY 10 horses at 9/2, the problem becomes a matter of the long term, since you couldn't hit 0.91 or 1.82 winners a day - you have to hit a whole number. So in your 520 races you hit 47 races at 10-1 ($1,034) and 94 at 9/2 ($1,034). So as long as you have the exact same number of races to bet each weekend at your preferred odds, the choice is equivalent.

If you had six 10-1 shots or fifteen 9/2 shots the proposition changes, since you would have to bet all the 10-1 horses but eliminate five of the 9/2 horses.

If you want a different answer than break even you have to change some assumptions regarding the number of bets or hit rate.

[raybo]

I'm going to give you a hypothetical betting situation on a weekend's worth of race-cards. Here's the deal: You must play 10 races only, and must bet either all 10-1 horses, or all 9-2 horses at fixed odds, with the pays being $22 or $11 respectively. The question is this: Which fixed odds horses, and why, would you choose as the best path to showing the highest ROI, if you played all 52 weeks of the year(520 bets), weekend cards only?

Without knowing how many 9/2 odds horses there are on the last click before the betting is closed, or how many 10/1 odds horses there are on the last click before the betting is closed, it would be tough to decide which set would be better, and even then it would depend on the handicapping ability of each player.

The more there are to choose from means you have more to pick and choose from, thus the more selective you can be.

The odds can change dramatically between the last click and the final odds, and the public hit rate is only based on final odds, so there is no way of knowing the public's hit rate on the last click before final odds are determined. It would be interesting to see how well the last click odds reflect actual win probabilities. We already know how well the final odds reflect win probabilities.

I would tend to think that in 520 plays you would have some very long losing streaks if betting only 10/1 odds horses, regardless of how well you handicap, unless there are many more 10/1 horses than 9/2 horses to choose from of course.

I'd probably take my chances with 9/2 fixed odds. At least the variance on those 9/2 horses should be lower than the 10/1 horses. Lower variance should mean more consistent results, even though you have to hit twice as many winners at 9/2.

[ReplayRandall]

The reason I started this thread, was to focus on the fact that everyone has to make a line, either their own or follow/buy a line that is of high quality and consistency. You see, the future of betting IS going to be fixed odds wagering via Betfair or other reliable established entities that will finally be legal in the US.

I looked at my own records for the last 5 years and saw that my 2 most consistent profitable value lines were at 9-2 and 10-1. For instance, my line for a horse would be 3-1 to 7-2, the +EV would then occur at 9-2 or above on these plays. Late tote-board fluxes are now a constant problem, never knowing what your price actually will be, so a buffer must be built in to the value-line to play around this dilemma.

When it comes to 10-1 and above, my line now doesn't need to be so precise as it does with the lower odds lines that I have. There's more room to be less accurate, but still be able to show a +EV on these plays. As was stated earlier by Raybo, variance in the lower odds horses, of course, win more often and cut down on prolonged droughts experienced with the 10-1 and up horses. But I find that my ROI is higher with the longer odds horses, thus my patience is rewarded for having the courage to last thru dry spells without losing my handicapping/line edge.

I want fixed odds platforms here in the US legalized as soon as possible, as off-shore is such a hassle, having my bets limited if I win too much, or having to give them sports action as a trade-off to keep my horse bets the same. Eventually though, I get cutoff completely and must end up having multiple accounts at different sites, just to be able to continue with no significant down time.

I've said enough for now, please feel free to comment or give your own trials and tribulations of line-making, betting and methodologies.....

[raybo]

The reason I started this thread, was to focus on the fact that everyone has to make a line, either their own or follow/buy a line that is of high quality and consistency. You see, the future of betting IS going to be fixed odds wagering via Betfair or other reliable established entities that will finally be legal in the US.

I looked at my own records for the last 5 years and saw that my 2 most consistent profitable value lines were at 9-2 and 10-1. For instance, my line for a horse would be 3-1 to 7-2, the +EV would then occur at 9-2 or above on these plays. Late tote-board fluxes are now a constant problem, never knowing what your price actually will be, so a buffer must be built in to the value-line to play around this dilemma.

When it comes to 10-1 and above, my line now doesn't need to be so precise as it does with the lower odds lines that I have. There's more room to be less accurate, but still be able to show a +EV on these plays. As was stated earlier by Raybo, variance in the lower odds horses, of course, win more often and cut down on prolonged droughts experienced with the 10-1 and up horses. But I find that my ROI is higher with the longer odds horses, thus my patience is rewarded for having the courage to last thru dry spells without losing my handicapping/line edge.

I want fixed odds platforms here in the US legalized as soon as possible, as off-shore is such a hassle, having my bets limited if I win too much, or having to give them sports action as a trade-off to keep my horse bets the same. Eventually though, I get cutoff completely and must end up having multiple accounts at different sites, just to be able to continue with no significant down time.

I've said enough for now, please feel free to comment or give your own trials and tribulations of line-making, betting and methodologies.....I had a feeling that you were pointing the thread towards fixed betting here in the US. However, I have a very hard time putting any confidence at all in fixed odds wagering happening in the US, in my lifetime (hopefully another 20 years, but the odds are against me on that). Even if it happens, horseplayers will face similar problems as the ones they face now with paramutuel wagering, that being the inability to create a good odds line. We already know who has the best ones, the large syndicates/whales, because they can afford the cost of specialized expertise in several fields, general labor, and expensive infrastructure. Fixed odds wagering will not change that.

Right now, most "value" players don't know what value odds are, in individual races and on individual horses, so they guess at it, or set a minimum odds level that they try to stick with. Yeah, they have to fudge the odds because of the late money hitting the pools, but they are still just guessing.

Yes, it sounds great to think that we wouldn't have to worry about the odds dropping after we make our bets, but with fixed odds we also wouldn't get the additional payouts on horses whose odds go up after we place our bets.

I don't see the number of profitable players increasing with fixed odds wagering, they will still include the same major entities with maybe a slight change in the identities of the others.

[ReplayRandall]

Bottom-line, the future is coming faster than most of us are aware of, and you have to start preparing NOW to take advantage of those who won't be using value-lines. BTW, if you don't keep records, START NOW, and by all means, try to get in the habit of watching replays, even if it's a few here or there....

[raybo]

LOL - I hear ya, but knowing how fast the US racing industry "gets with the program", I think I'll just stick with what I'm doing now. :lol:

[ReplayRandall]

LOL - I hear ya, but knowing how fast the US racing industry "gets with the program", I think I'll just stick with what I'm doing now. :lol:

Your way of doing things might be good, but my way is better $$$... ;)

[raybo]

Your way of doing things might be good, but my way is better $$$... ;)

I would never, ever say "my way is better", but some people actually believe it.

[ReplayRandall]

I would never, ever say "my way is better", but some people actually believe it.

The difference between us is I KNOW, and I try to actually put others on the right track....It's better for the future survival of players staying in the game, and that's why "my way is better".

[ultracapper]

The difference between us is I KNOW, and I try to actually put others on the right track....It's better for the future survival of players staying in the game, and that's why "my way is better".

There have been some bold statements on this board, but, WOW...........

[raybo]

The difference between us is I KNOW, and I try to actually put others on the right track....It's better for the future survival of players staying in the game, and that's why "my way is better".

I knew there was something I didn't particularly care for about your postings, now I don't feel so bad for having those feelings. Thank you for clearing it up for me!

Best of luck to you in the future, and I hope you get your wish for fixed odds in the US before you kick the bucket. Maybe that will help you out a bit. Personally, I do just fine with the paramutuel wagering we have now.

[ReplayRandall]

There have been some bold statements on this board, but, WOW...........

Thank you for noticing.....

[ReplayRandall]

I knew there was something I didn't particularly care for about your postings, now I don't feel so bad for having those feelings. Thank you for clearing it up for me!

Stunning reply....what did that take you, 18 hours?... :lol:

[raybo]

Stunning reply....what did that take you, 18 hours?... :lol:

Yeah, it took a while because I as trying to be as nice as I could, under the circumstances. Keep on strutting your stuff though. Are you related to Trump by any chance? If so, hope he loaned you some of his dough.

[ReplayRandall]

Yeah, it took a while because I as trying to be as nice as I could, under the circumstances. Keep on strutting your stuff though. Are you related to Trump by any chance? If so, hope he loaned you some of his dough.

You're a funny guy Raybo, and that's about it.......Conversation's over.

[Nitro]

The reason I started this thread, was to focus on the fact that everyone has to make a line, either their own or follow/buy a line that is of high quality and consistency. You see, the future of betting IS going to be fixed odds wagering via Betfair or other reliable established entities that will finally be legal in the US.
Not in your or my lifetime will "fixed odds" betting ever come close or take over the Mutual & Exotic betting pools. Where in the world did you come up with this nonsense? And that's the justification for making a personal betting line? Making lines based on what? Antiquated handicapping techniques that produce subjective conclusions? Because that's the accuracy that such derived lines will ultimately provide.

Your way of doing things might be good, but my way is better $$$... ;) I’m not sure how you can make that assessment of another player. I’ll take your word for it though, because maybe I missed seeing you share any of that grandeur in the Selection forum.
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[ReplayRandall]

Not in your or my lifetime will "fixed odds" betting ever come close or take over the Mutual & Exotic betting pools. Where in the world did you come up with this nonsense? And that's the justification for making a personal betting line? Making lines based on what? Antiquated handicapping techniques that produce subjective conclusions? Because that's the accuracy that such derived lines will ultimately provide.

I’m not sure how you can make that assessment of another player. I’ll take your word for it though, because maybe I missed seeing you share any of that grandeur in the Selection forum.
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You must have missed what happened in the UK, with people like you spouting the same nonsense before it became reality. Stick to Hong Kong and you'll be fine, as you have no idea what's on the immediate horizon for Nationalized sports wagering, poker and fixed odds horse racing platforms in the US, or have you missed the threads I've started on those topics too? BTW, this is my last conversation with you as well. You and Raybo are of the same ilk... :ThmbDown:

[Nitro]

You must have missed what happened in the UK, with people like you spouting the same nonsense before it became reality. Stick to Hong Kong and you'll be fine, as you have no idea what's on the immediate horizon for Nationalized sports wagering, poker and fixed odds horse racing platforms in the US, or have you missed the threads I've started on those topics too? BTW, this is my last conversation with you as well. You and Raybo are of the same ilk... :ThmbDown:Hey in case you missed it, this is America, not the UK. If you really believe that fixed odds betting is the way of the future for horse racing in N.A. based on what’s going on there what can I say except you’re dead wrong! I’m not going to try and convince you or anyone else about what bettors may or may not want, but this game is based on long standing traditions that supersede any wishful thinking. All I can say is that it's unfortunate some like you don't recognize that Hong Kong is the probably the most lucrative model from many perspectives for horse racing on the planet. If that means nothing to you, I'll concede to your dwelling on the aspirations of a hopeless cause!

I really don’t care about the other topics you mentioned because they’re as meaningful to me as playing an odds-choice. I could also care less about your pompous attitude toward anyone who might have a different opinion. I’ll be very careful in the future when it comes to posting on any of your threads. After all, based on your dialogue I would imagine that you believe everything you post must be taken authoritatively as “written in stone”. :rolleyes:
Keep dreaming! :ThmbUp:
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[CincyHorseplayer]

I knew there was something I didn't particularly care for about your postings, now I don't feel so bad for having those feelings. Thank you for clearing it up for me!

Best of luck to you in the future, and I hope you get your wish for fixed odds in the US before you kick the bucket. Maybe that will help you out a bit. Personally, I do just fine with the paramutuel wagering we have now.

Ray isn't this the president of your fan club? Always making friends and influencing people aren't ya?! :D

[raybo]

You're a funny guy Raybo, and that's about it.......Conversation's over.

Hey, you started it with the "my way's better" crap. If not for that absurdity, the conversation would have been just fine.

[raybo]

Ray isn't this the president of your fan club? Always making friends and influencing people aren't ya?! :D

I suppose so, although there are a couple of other guys who would give him a good fight for top honors. :lol:

[saddle sore]

I'm going to give you a hypothetical betting situation on a weekend's worth of race-cards. Here's the deal: You must play 10 races only, and must bet either all 10-1 horses, or all 9-2 horses at fixed odds, with the pays being $22 or $11 respectively. The question is this: Which fixed odds horses, and why, would you choose as the best path to showing the highest ROI, if you played all 52 weeks of the year(520 bets), weekend cards only?........Randall i'm starting to think your whole life is a hypothetical.....As usual a landslide of voters have come to your aid....Please stop this nonsense.....The racing industry actually needs people playing races instead of playing fantasy island boot camp...:lol: