betovernetcapper
03-22-2016, 09:19 PM
Race 1 cls 4 1650 meters yielding Turf
At the moment :8: is the 5 to 1 favorite. My guess is by post time the favorite will be :5: with Joe Moreira. Best trainer-decent post-good figs, in short logical. Only knock is the horse has a record of 19-1-3-1. Horse doesn't seem to have a burning desire to win.
:4: has similar figs-good post-average trainer & joc, to his credit he has a record of 41-5-2-2. This horse like to win. He's a 7 year old, but should have a few races left.
Race Shape 2 early speed types & 2 stone cold closeers. The rest are pretty much mid pack runners. There are three sucker horse types & they are :2: :5: :12: Think I'll use :5: as a Quinella banker as he may run 1st or 2nd & is also likly to offer no value in the win pool.
EARLY SPEED Conventional wisdom is early speed is no bargain on yielding turf.That's usually true. The ES horses are :7: & :12: . :12: breaks from the 11 hole (2% win rate) & has low figs and a joc that is 0 for 28. Pass
:7: has been running on or with the lead in shorter races. On surface glance, it would seem it can't get the distance. As a 3 year old, he ran 2nd by a 1/2 in the Rome Two Thousand Guineas on soft turf at 1600 meters. He was 5-1 and there were 13 horses in the race. He also won an unlisted stake at Milan on hard turf at 5 to 1, also at 1600 meters. If the :12: fails to cross over cleanly and run with him (probable) he may enjoy an uncontested lead. If the other jocs wait till the 6 furlong pole to pick him off, it may be too late.
Closers The two Silky Sullivan types are :2: (sucker horse) that's breaking from post 10 and :10: who breaks from the favorable 5 hole. Out of 61 starts, he's record is 6-5-6. He likes to win and his trainer is at least of average ability. If you go back far enough, he's run some very fast races. At 20-1 or so he's maybe worth a small bet.
I'll be dutching the :4: :7: :10: if I get the odds.
In the Q I'll use :5: with :1: :2: :3: :4: :7: :10: :12:
In the Q ,Ill toss combinations that don't offer much value or try to structure a Tri using them as a saver or back up.
good luck :)
At the moment :8: is the 5 to 1 favorite. My guess is by post time the favorite will be :5: with Joe Moreira. Best trainer-decent post-good figs, in short logical. Only knock is the horse has a record of 19-1-3-1. Horse doesn't seem to have a burning desire to win.
:4: has similar figs-good post-average trainer & joc, to his credit he has a record of 41-5-2-2. This horse like to win. He's a 7 year old, but should have a few races left.
Race Shape 2 early speed types & 2 stone cold closeers. The rest are pretty much mid pack runners. There are three sucker horse types & they are :2: :5: :12: Think I'll use :5: as a Quinella banker as he may run 1st or 2nd & is also likly to offer no value in the win pool.
EARLY SPEED Conventional wisdom is early speed is no bargain on yielding turf.That's usually true. The ES horses are :7: & :12: . :12: breaks from the 11 hole (2% win rate) & has low figs and a joc that is 0 for 28. Pass
:7: has been running on or with the lead in shorter races. On surface glance, it would seem it can't get the distance. As a 3 year old, he ran 2nd by a 1/2 in the Rome Two Thousand Guineas on soft turf at 1600 meters. He was 5-1 and there were 13 horses in the race. He also won an unlisted stake at Milan on hard turf at 5 to 1, also at 1600 meters. If the :12: fails to cross over cleanly and run with him (probable) he may enjoy an uncontested lead. If the other jocs wait till the 6 furlong pole to pick him off, it may be too late.
Closers The two Silky Sullivan types are :2: (sucker horse) that's breaking from post 10 and :10: who breaks from the favorable 5 hole. Out of 61 starts, he's record is 6-5-6. He likes to win and his trainer is at least of average ability. If you go back far enough, he's run some very fast races. At 20-1 or so he's maybe worth a small bet.
I'll be dutching the :4: :7: :10: if I get the odds.
In the Q I'll use :5: with :1: :2: :3: :4: :7: :10: :12:
In the Q ,Ill toss combinations that don't offer much value or try to structure a Tri using them as a saver or back up.
good luck :)