FORMULA'S WIN PLAY, OUTPERFORMING THE PUBLIC

[formula_2002]

OUTPERFORMING THE PUBLIC WIN POOL BETTING BY USING LIVE TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS


RESULTS FROM THREE PREVIOUS THREADS

STRUCTURED BETS
85 RACES HAD A $1 RETURN OF $0.96

THE PUBLIC FLAT BETS
85 RACES HAD A $1 RETURN OF $0.76

[formula_2002]

"UK Kelso
Race
1

Post
10:00

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,636 "

bet size 943
RETURN ON $1 0.00
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.00
NUMBER OF RACES 1
NUMBER OF WINS 0
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET #DIV/0!
RETURN ON $1 FOR
EXP(BET SIZE) $1 return 0.00
:1:

[formula_2002]

"UK Taunton
Race
1

Post
10:10

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,418 "

bet size 1587
RETURN ON $1 0.00
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.00
NUMBER OF RACES 1
NUMBER OF WINS 0
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET #DIV/0!
RETURN ON $1 FOR
EXP(BET SIZE) $1 return 0.00
:1:

[formula_2002]

"UK Southwell
Race
1

Post
10:20

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,123 "

bet size 880
RETURN ON $1 0.00
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.00
NUMBER OF RACES 1
NUMBER OF WINS 0
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET #DIV/0!
RETURN ON $1 FOR
EXP(BET SIZE) $1 return 0.00
:1:

[formula_2002]

"UK Southwell
Race
2

Post
10:50

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$727 "

bet size 2470
RETURN ON $1 1.48
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 1.15
NUMBER OF RACES 4
NUMBER OF WINS 2
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.29
RETURN ON $1 FOR
EXP(BET SIZE) $1 return 1.57
:2:

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
7

Post
7:12

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$8,208 "

bet size 591
RETURN ON $1 0.51
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.51
NUMBER OF RACES 9
NUMBER OF WINS 2
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 FOR
EXP(BET SIZE) $1 return 0.78
:2:

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
1

Post
7:30

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,480 "

bet size 2200
RETURN ON $1 0.48
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.46
NUMBER OF RACES 10
NUMBER OF WINS 2
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.05
RETURN ON $1 FOR
EXP(BET SIZE) $1 return 0.42
total of all steuctural bets 10867.31949
this race % of total bets 20.25%
flat bet % 10.00%
:3:

very important win

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
8

Post
7:41

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$20,899 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 7.1
bet size 8439
RETURN ON $1 0.71
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.59
NUMBER OF RACES 11
NUMBER OF WINS 3
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.21
:8:

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
8

Post
7:41

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$20,899 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 7.1
bet size 8439
RETURN ON $1 0.71
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.59
NUMBER OF RACES 11
NUMBER OF WINS 3
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.21
:8:


thought the 2 would be dq'd, giving the win to 8 :eek:

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
4

Post
8:31

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,850 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.6
bet size 1020
RETURN ON $1 0.43
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.54
NUMBER OF RACES 12
NUMBER OF WINS 3
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 0.81
:8:

a win here will be best for the flat bet

[formula_2002]

"Yonkers
Race
6

Post
8:49

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$823 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.9
bet size 1553
RETURN ON $1 0.41
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.50
NUMBER OF RACES 13
NUMBER OF WINS 3
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 0.83


:6:
a win here slightly favors the flat bet size

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
5

Post
8:54

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,768 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.7
bet size 1275
RETURN ON $1 0.41
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.50
NUMBER OF RACES 13
NUMBER OF WINS 3
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 0.83
:5:

[formula_2002]

"Yonkers
Race
7

Post
9:09

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,486 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.6
bet size 1029
RETURN ON $1 0.37
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.43
NUMBER OF RACES 15
NUMBER OF WINS 3
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 0.85
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
6

Post
9:17

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,257 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 1.0
bet size 1610
RETURN ON $1 0.37
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.43
NUMBER OF RACES 15
NUMBER OF WINS 3
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 0.85
:2:

[formula_2002]

"Yonkers
Race
8

Post
9:27

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,436 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 5.1
bet size 8460
RETURN ON $1 0.40
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.49
NUMBER OF RACES 17
NUMBER OF WINS 4
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 0.82
:1:

win one for the structural bet size

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
9

Post
10:17

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,387 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.4
bet size 590
RETURN ON $1 0.40
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.49
NUMBER OF RACES 17
NUMBER OF WINS 4
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 0.82
RETURN ON $1 FOR
EXP(BET SIZE) $1 return 0.00
total of all steuctural bets 27994.0461
this race % of total bets 2.11%
flat bet % 5.88%
:4:

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
10

Post
10:37

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,007 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.3
bet size 513
RETURN ON $1 0.65
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.47
NUMBER OF RACES 21
NUMBER OF WINS 5
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.38
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Yonkers
Race
12

Post
10:44

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,501 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.4
bet size 719
RETURN ON $1 0.65
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.47
NUMBER OF RACES 21
NUMBER OF WINS 5
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.38
:7:

[formula_2002]

I'll close this thread, once again beating the public's $1 return, $0.68 to $0.54

a 1.24 to 1 advantage


RETURN ON $1 0.68
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.54
NUMBER OF RACES 23
NUMBER OF WINS 6
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.24

in the next tread I'll point out when a structural bet size $1 return exceeds a flat bet size $1 return if it wins.

[formula_2002]

"UK Southwell
Race
4

Post
12:00

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,000 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 1.1
bet size 1984
RETURN ON $1 0.68
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.54
NUMBER OF RACES 23
NUMBER OF WINS 6
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.24
:5:

[formula_2002]

"Yonkers
Race
11

Post
4:18

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,147 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 3.9
bet size 6584
RETURN ON $1 0.76
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.70
NUMBER OF RACES 29
NUMBER OF WINS 10
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.09
:4:

this is a big one if it wins

[formula_2002]

:5: "Sunland
Race
3

Post
4:22

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,628 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 1.4
bet size 2324
RETURN ON $1 0.76
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.70
NUMBER OF RACES 29
NUMBER OF WINS 10
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.09

[formula_2002]

"Sunland
Race
5

Post
5:15

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$6,342 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 4.3
bet size 7842
RETURN ON $1 0.94
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.72
NUMBER OF RACES 32
NUMBER OF WINS 11
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.31
:2:

another big one if it wins

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
3

Post
5:24

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,051 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.9
bet size 1766
RETURN ON $1 0.83
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.69
NUMBER OF RACES 33
NUMBER OF WINS 11
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.19
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Sunland
Race
7

Post
6:10

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,398 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.7
bet size 1424
RETURN ON $1 0.80
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.67
NUMBER OF RACES 34
NUMBER OF WINS 11
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.19
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
5

Post
6:24

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$6,984 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.3
bet size 599
RETURN ON $1 0.79
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.65
NUMBER OF RACES 35
NUMBER OF WINS 11
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.20
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Sunland
Race
8

Post
6:37

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,543 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.6
bet size 1144
RETURN ON $1 0.78
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.64
NUMBER OF RACES 36
NUMBER OF WINS 11
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.23
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Northfield
Race
8

Post
8:43

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,530 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.8
bet size 1712
RETURN ON $1 0.69
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.66
NUMBER OF RACES 40
NUMBER OF WINS 12
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.04
:2:

[formula_2002]

"Northfield
Race
12

Post
10:09

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,256 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.3
bet size 612
RETURN ON $1 0.76
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.75
NUMBER OF RACES 44
NUMBER OF WINS 15
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.00
:7:

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
1

Post
7:10

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,550 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.9
bet size 1651
RETURN ON $1 0.75
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.74
NUMBER OF RACES 45
NUMBER OF WINS 15
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.02
:4:

[formula_2002]

"UK Southwell
Race
5

Post
12:10

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,897 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.1 0.89 ratio rfi
bet size 143
RETURN ON $1 0.78
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.76
NUMBER OF RACES 53
NUMBER OF WINS 18
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.03
:11:

[formula_2002]

"UK Southwell
Race
5

Post
12:10

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,897 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.1 0.89 ratio rfi
bet size 143
RETURN ON $1 0.78
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.76
NUMBER OF RACES 53
NUMBER OF WINS 18
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.03
:11:

there is another bet size calculation which is currently returning $0.89 on a $a bet. its highlighted a "0.89 ratio rif" and is performing 1.17 better than a flat bet

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
1

Post
12:25

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$14,506 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.4 0.88 ratio rfi
bet size 671
RETURN ON $1 0.77
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.72
NUMBER OF RACES 56
NUMBER OF WINS 18
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.07
:1:

[formula_2002]

"UK Southwell
Race
6

Post
12:40

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$991 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.2 0.87 ratio rfi
bet size 290
RETURN ON $1 0.77
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.71
NUMBER OF RACES 57
NUMBER OF WINS 18
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.08
:9:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
6

Post
3:07

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$47,954 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 3.3 0.82 ratio rfi
bet size 5379
RETURN ON $1 0.73
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.64
NUMBER OF RACES 63
NUMBER OF WINS 18
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.14
:1:

good value if it wins

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
8

Post
4:09

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$35,911 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 1.0
bet size 1721
RETURN ON $1 0.80
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.66
NUMBER OF RACES 64
NUMBER OF WINS 19
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.21
:2:

[formula_2002]

if you like then 5 then 5/all exacta

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
9

Post
4:40

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$21,521 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 1.4 0.87 ratio rfi
bet size 2318
RETURN ON $1 0.78
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.64
NUMBER OF RACES 66
NUMBER OF WINS 19
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.21
:2:

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
2

Post
4:54

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,785 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 1.0 0.91 ratio rfi
bet size 1644
RETURN ON $1 0.81
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.67
NUMBER OF RACES 67
NUMBER OF WINS 20
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.21
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
10

Post
5:11

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$71,372 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.5 0.91 ratio rfi
bet size 843
RETURN ON $1 0.81
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.67
NUMBER OF RACES 67
NUMBER OF WINS 20
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.21
:4:

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
3

Post
5:25

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,062 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 6.7
bet size 11479
RETURN ON $1 0.81
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.67
NUMBER OF RACES 67
NUMBER OF WINS 20
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.21
:6:

a lock. else some big money will be hurting

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
3

Post
5:25

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,062 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 6.7
bet size 11479
RETURN ON $1 0.81
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.67
NUMBER OF RACES 67
NUMBER OF WINS 20
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.21
:6:

a lock. else some big money will be hurting

the lock won and put my ratio bet size roi to 1.02

[formula_2002]

results for last 75 races
*bet size ratio 0.3 0.95 ratio rfi
bet size 507
RETURN ON $1 0.87
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.66
NUMBER OF RACES 75
NUMBER OF WINS 22
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.32

$1 return for a flat bet was $0.66
$1 return for the structural bet size was $0.87
$1 return for a bet size ratio was $0.95
*A few races ago I noticed this ratio was worth further record keeping.
I applied it to all 75 races and decided it was worth further review
it outperforms a flat bet $1 return by a factor of 1.43.

the thought here is that the flat bet $1 return will approach $0.83, raising the $1 return for a ratio bet accordingly. Hopefully a profit!!! :cool:

[formula_2002]

"Charles Town
Race
8

Post
10:14

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$8,248 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 1.28 0.94
bet size 2317
RETURN ON $1 0.85
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.65
NUMBER OF RACES 76
NUMBER OF WINS 22
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.32
:1:

[formula_2002]

composite results for last several days. 117 races 34 wins

$1 return for a flat bet was $0.65
$1 return for the structural bet size was $0.78
$1 return for a bet size ratio was $0.88


bet size ratio is ( current structured bet size/sum of all structured bets) /(1/total of all bets) :sleeping:

[formula_2002]

"SAF Vaal
Race
8

Post
9:45

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,650 "

pgno 4
bet size 63
number of races 117
win % 29.06%
MY ROI 0.88
FLAT BET ROI 0.65
:4:

[formula_2002]

"UK Chepstow
Race
6

Post
1:00

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,478 "

pgno 10
bet size 430
number of races 118
win % 28.81%
MY ROI 0.88
FLAT BET ROI 0.64
:10:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
2

Post
1:05

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$23,365 "

pgno 6
bet size 2656
number of races 118
win % 28.81%
MY ROI 0.88
FLAT BET ROI 0.64
:6:

[formula_2002]

"UK Chepstow
Race
7

Post
1:30

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$787 "

pgno 3
bet size 808
number of races 125
win % 28.00%
MY ROI 0.83
FLAT BET ROI 0.63
:3:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
3

Post
1:35

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$38,104 "

pgno
bet size 2108
number of races 125
win % 28.00%
MY ROI 0.83
FLAT BET ROI 0.63
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
4

Post
2:05

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$23,744 "

pgno 1
bet size 415
number of races 127
win % 28.35%
MY ROI 0.83
FLAT BET ROI 0.64
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
8

Post
4:09

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$40,185 "

pgno 5
bet size 4377
number of races 129
win % 28.68%
MY ROI 0.81
FLAT BET ROI 0.65
:5:

a big one

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
7

Post
4:20

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$28,516 "

pgno 2
bet size 602
number of races 129
win % 28.68%
MY ROI 0.81
FLAT BET ROI 0.65
:2:

[formula_2002]

"Fair Grounds
Race
5

Post
4:25

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,543 "

pgno
bet size 909
number of races 130
win % 28.46%
MY ROI 0.78
FLAT BET ROI 0.65
:10:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
9

Post
4:40

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$22,574 "

pgno
bet size 738
number of races 132
win % 29.55%
MY ROI 0.81
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:4:

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
3

Post
4:45

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,797 "

pgno 6
bet size 806
number of races 132
win % 29.55%
MY ROI 0.81
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
3

Post
5:01

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$21,228 "

pgno
bet size 983
number of races 134
win % 29.10%
MY ROI 0.80
FLAT BET ROI 0.67
:2:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
10

Post
5:11

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$45,580 "

pgno
bet size 439
number of races 134
win % 29.10%
MY ROI 0.80
FLAT BET ROI 0.67
:4:

[formula_2002]

"Yonkers
Race
1

Post
7:10

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,822 "

pgno 6
bet size 711
number of races 140
win % 29.29%
MY ROI 0.93
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Fair Grounds
Race
11

Post
7:19

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,929 "

pgno 5
bet size 164
number of races 140
win % 29.29%
MY ROI 0.93
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:5:

[formula_2002]

from note #32

there is another bet size calculation which is currently returning $0.89 on a $a bet. its highlighted a "0.89 ratio rif" and is performing 1.17 better than a flat bet

the "ratio" rfi is now up to 0.93 and performing 1.35 better than a flat bet.
What does all of his mean? It's simple. My bet size outperforms a flat bet.
NO SMALL CHANGE.
I think I can improve the roi by giving more weight to certain bets than others

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
8

Post
7:36

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$78,363 "

pgno 1
bet size 212
number of races 142
win % 29.58%
MY ROI 0.93
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
5

Post
7:52

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$2,942 "

pgno 1
bet size 3008
number of races 143
win % 29.37%
MY ROI 0.93
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:1:

big bet

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
6

Post
9:10

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,830 "

pgno
bet size 573
number of races 146
win % 28.77%
MY ROI 0.90
FLAT BET ROI 0.66
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Charles Town
Race
6

Post
9:22

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$6,402 "

pgno
bet size 2371
number of races 147
win % 28.57%
MY ROI 0.90
FLAT BET ROI 0.66
:5:

another big one

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
8

Post
9:29

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$6,016 "

pgno
bet size 2081
number of races 147
win % 28.57%
MY ROI 0.90
FLAT BET ROI 0.66
:4:

perhaps this one willwin

[formula_2002]

"Yonkers
Race
9

Post
9:50

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,577 "

pgno 1
bet size 807
number of races 149
win % 28.19%
MY ROI 0.87
FLAT BET ROI 0.65
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Charles Town
Race
7

Post
9:55

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$12,466 "

pgno
bet size 7728
number of races 149
win % 28.19%
MY ROI 0.87
FLAT BET ROI 0.65
:2:

hopefull

[formula_2002]

"Yonkers
Race
12

Post
10:50

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,405 "

pgno
bet size 974
number of races 151
win % 27.81%
MY ROI 0.82
FLAT BET ROI 0.64
:3:

[formula_2002]

the win % is only 27%. 42 wins/ 154 races (1 bet per race) = 27%
I only keep track of the win odds. I don't log in the losing odds.

all plays are mostly favorites, some times, second choice.
if the win odds and losing odds are about the same, the expected win % is 36%

If and when the win selections approach what is expected (adjusted for track take out), I would hope to see the roi increase accordingly from 0.81 to
(36/27) x .81 = 1.08 roi

currently, a flat bet roi is 0.63
I would expect that to increase to (36/27) x .63 = 0.84 which would be about correct for a 17% take out

[formula_2002]

"UK Wolverhampton
Race
3

Post
10:55

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,534 "

pgno
bet size 2726
number of races 154
win % 27.27%
MY ROI 0.81
FLAT BET ROI 0.63
:4:

[formula_2002]

"UK Lingfield
Race
4

Post
11:15

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$11,651 "

pgno 8
bet size 211
number of races 154
win % 27.27%
MY ROI 0.81
FLAT BET ROI 0.63
:8:

[formula_2002]

"UK Wolverhampton
Race
4

Post
11:30

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,524 "

pgno 7
bet size 348
number of races 154
win % 27.27%
MY ROI 0.81
FLAT BET ROI 0.63
:7:

[formula_2002]

"UK Lingfield
Race
5

Post
11:45

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$8,087 "

pgno
bet size 2348
number of races 154
win % 27.27%
MY ROI 0.81
FLAT BET ROI 0.63
4

[formula_2002]

"UK Wolverhampton
Race
5

Post
12:00

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,328 "

pgno
bet size 2104
number of races 154
win % 27.27%
MY ROI 0.81
FLAT BET ROI 0.63


1

[formula_2002]

"UK Lingfield
Race
6

Post
12:15

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,404 "

pgno
bet size 666
number of races 161
win % 28.57%
MY ROI 0.86
FLAT BET ROI 0.68

3

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
1

Post
12:25

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$18,447 "

pgno
bet size 882
number of races 162
win % 28.40%
MY ROI 0.85
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:8:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
1

Post
12:35

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$21,696 "

pgno
bet size 2508
number of races 162
win % 28.40%
MY ROI 0.85
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:9:

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
2

Post
12:54

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$18,519 "

pgno
bet size 557
number of races 162
win % 28.40%
MY ROI 0.85
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:7:

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
1

Post
1:20

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$18,072 "

pgno
bet size 15384
number of races 162
win % 28.40%
MY ROI 0.85
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:2:


MOTHER OF ALL BET SIZES

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
4

Post
1:58

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$19,030 "

pgno
bet size 719
number of races 162
win % 28.40%
MY ROI 0.85
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:4:

[formula_2002]

"Fair Grounds
Race
2

Post
2:55

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,678 "

pgno
bet size 717
number of races 170
win % 28.24%
MY ROI 0.74
FLAT BET ROI 0.67


1 and 4

[formula_2002]

"Oaklawn
Race
2

Post
3:00

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$26,189 "

pgno
bet size 800
number of races 170
win % 28.24%
MY ROI 0.74
FLAT BET ROI 0.67

:4: :7:

[formula_2002]

"Oaklawn
Race
3

Post
3:30

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$40,630 "

pgno
bet size 467
number of races 174
win % 27.59%
MY ROI 0.73
FLAT BET ROI 0.65
:11:

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
7

Post
3:41

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$14,130 "

pgno
bet size 547
number of races 174
win % 27.59%
MY ROI 0.73
FLAT BET ROI 0.65
:2: :7:

[formula_2002]

"Oaklawn
Race
4

Post
4:00

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$30,027 "

pgno
bet size 487
number of races 177
win % 27.68%
MY ROI 0.73
FLAT BET ROI 0.65


6
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Sunland
Race
4

Post
4:48

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,029 "

pgno
bet size 445
number of races 179
win % 27.93%
MY ROI 0.74
FLAT BET ROI 0.66
:4:

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
1

Post
5:59

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$2,329 "

pgno
bet size 389
number of races 179
win % 27.93%
MY ROI 0.74
FLAT BET ROI 0.66
:4:

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
8

Post
7:37

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$75,921 "

pgno
bet size 627
number of races 179
win % 27.93%
MY ROI 0.74
FLAT BET ROI 0.66

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
2

Post
7:50

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,183 "

pgno
bet size 6625
number of races 179
win % 27.93%
MY ROI 0.74
FLAT BET ROI 0.66
:3:

the uncle of all bets

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
4

Post
8:37

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,042 "

pgno
bet size 5122
number of races 179
win % 27.93%
MY ROI 0.74
FLAT BET ROI 0.66
:7:

[formula_2002]

status after 184 races

number of races 184
win % 27.72%
MY ROI 0.75
FLAT BET ROI 0.65



from here on in I'm changing the bet size factor somewhat (code note bk1569 multiplier)

[formula_2002]

"New Zealand Tauranga
Race
4

Post
9:05

MTP
1

$1 Quinella Pool
$4,371 "

pgno
bet size 313
number of races 184
win % 27.72%
MY ROI 0.75
FLAT BET ROI 0.65
:8:

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
8

Post
9:14

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$6,431 "

pgno
bet size 974
number of races 184
win % 27.72%
MY ROI 0.75
FLAT BET ROI 0.65
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Charles Town
Race
6

Post
9:28

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$4,648 "

pgno
bet size 1063
number of races 186
win % 28.49%
MY ROI 0.75
FLAT BET ROI 0.67
:2:

[formula_2002]

"Yonkers
Race
8

Post
9:37

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,404 "

pgno
bet size 810
number of races 186
win % 28.49%
MY ROI 0.75
FLAT BET ROI 0.67
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
7

Post
9:42

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,680 "

pgno
bet size 441
number of races 186
win % 28.49%
MY ROI 0.75
FLAT BET ROI 0.67
:4:

[formula_2002]

"Turfway
Race
8

Post
9:49

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$7,617 "

pgno
bet size 553
number of races 186
win % 28.49%
MY ROI 0.75
FLAT BET ROI 0.67
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Yonkers
Race
10

Post
10:21

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,368 "

pgno
bet size 125
number of races 191
win % 28.80%
MY ROI 0.76
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:4:

[formula_2002]

"Los Alamitos QH
Race
2

Post
10:27

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,001 "

pgno
bet size 374
number of races 191
win % 28.80%
MY ROI 0.76
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Los Alamitos QH
Race
4

Post
11:20

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,296 "

pgno
bet size 620
number of races 194
win % 28.87%
MY ROI 0.75
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:4:

[formula_2002]

REVERTING TO 3-23-2016 CALULATIONS

"SAF Turffontein
Race
2

Post
7:25

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,943 "

pgno
bet size 33
number of races 158
win % 28.48%
MY ROI 0.77
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:1:

[formula_2002]

"SAF Kenilworth
Race
2

Post
7:35

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$891 "

pgno
bet size 565
number of races 159
win % 28.30%
MY ROI 0.77
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:6:

[formula_2002]

"SAF Turffontein
Race
5

Post
9:10

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,290 "

pgno
bet size 275
number of races 159
win % 28.30%
MY ROI 0.77
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:8:

[formula_2002]

"*Dubai World Cup
Race
6

Post
10:44

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$50,637 "

pgno
bet size 667
number of races 163
win % 28.22%
MY ROI 0.76
FLAT BET ROI 0.67
:3:

[formula_2002]

"SAF Turffontein
Race
8

Post
11:00

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,343 "

pgno
bet size 200
number of races 164
win % 28.05%
MY ROI 0.76
FLAT BET ROI 0.67
:4:

[formula_2002]

"UK Carlisle
Race
4

Post
11:30

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$579 "

pgno
bet size 1591
number of races 165
win % 28.48%
MY ROI 0.76
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:5:

[formula_2002]

"SAF Turffontein
Race
9

Post
11:35

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,863 "

pgno
bet size 62
number of races 165
win % 28.48%
MY ROI 0.76
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:5:

[formula_2002]

"*Dubai World Cup
Race
7

Post
11:44

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$102,067 "

pgno
bet size 406
number of races 165
win % 28.48%
MY ROI 0.76
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:2:

[formula_2002]

"*Dubai World Cup
Race
8

Post
12:19

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$54,097 "

pgno
bet size 464
number of races 168
win % 27.98%
MY ROI 0.75
FLAT BET ROI 0.67
:7:

[formula_2002]

"*Dubai World Cup
Race
9

Post
12:59

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$255,568 "

pgno
bet size 984
number of races 170
win % 28.82%
MY ROI 0.77
FLAT BET ROI 0.68
:11:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
3

Post
1:40

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$47,575 "

pgno
bet size 475
number of races 171
win % 29.24%
MY ROI 0.77
FLAT BET ROI 0.69
:2:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
5

Post
2:42

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$55,809 "

pgno
bet size 427
number of races 174
win % 29.31%
MY ROI 0.78
FLAT BET ROI 0.69
:4:

[formula_2002]

"Oaklawn
Race
4

Post
3:38

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$38,666 "

pgno
bet size 628
number of races 175
win % 29.71%
MY ROI 0.78
FLAT BET ROI 0.70
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
9

Post
5:04

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$83,374 "

pgno
bet size 35
number of races 178
win % 29.21%
MY ROI 0.78
FLAT BET ROI 0.69
:11:

[formula_2002]

"Oaklawn
Race
7

Post
5:09

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$40,996 "

pgno
bet size 74
number of races 178
win % 29.21%
MY ROI 0.78
FLAT BET ROI 0.69
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
9

Post
5:23

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$65,721 "

pgno
bet size 20
number of races 180
win % 28.89%
MY ROI 0.78
FLAT BET ROI 0.69
:3:

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
6

Post
6:25

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,536 "

pgno
bet size 20215
number of races 183
win % 28.42%
MY ROI 0.67
FLAT BET ROI 0.67
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
7

Post
6:45

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$68,714 "

pgno
bet size 370
number of races 184
win % 28.26%
MY ROI 0.62
FLAT BET ROI 0.67
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
4

Post
7:23

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,411 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.58
bet size 1504
RETURN ON $1 0.72
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.67
NUMBER OF RACES 185
NUMBER OF WINS 52
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.08
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
8

Post
7:29

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$14,697 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 8.00
bet size 5563
RETURN ON $1 0.72
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.67
NUMBER OF RACES 185
NUMBER OF WINS 52
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.08
RETURN ON $1 FOR
:5:

[formula_2002]

"Turfway
Race
6

Post
8:41

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$8,528 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.53
bet size 1430
RETURN ON $1 0.72
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.67
NUMBER OF RACES 185
NUMBER OF WINS 52
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.08
:3:

[formula_2002]

"Charles Town
Race
5

Post
9:10

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$6,186 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.05
bet size 424
RETURN ON $1 0.71
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.67
NUMBER OF RACES 189
NUMBER OF WINS 53
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.06
:1:

[formula_2002]

"Turfway
Race
7

Post
9:13

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$10,989 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.63
bet size 1570
RETURN ON $1 0.71
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.67
NUMBER OF RACES 189
NUMBER OF WINS 53
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.06
:2:

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
8

Post
9:16

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$7,013 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 0.64
bet size 1578
RETURN ON $1 0.71
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.67
NUMBER OF RACES 189
NUMBER OF WINS 53
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.06
:6:

[formula_2002]

"Los Alamitos QH
Race
2

Post
9:43

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,998 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 2.23
bet size 1776
RETURN ON $1 1.76
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 2.77
NUMBER OF RACES 3
NUMBER OF WINS 2
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 0.63
:4:

[formula_2002]

"Los Alamitos QH
Race
6

Post
11:28

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,667 "
bet size ratio wrt to fb 2.10
bet size 2843
RETURN ON $1 0.74
FLAT BET 1.00
RETURN ON $1 0.72
NUMBER OF RACES 196
NUMBER OF WINS 57
ADVANTAGE OVER FLAT BET 1.03
:5: