large heart X

[sbcaris]

Almost every horse entered in every prep will trace to one of the following known large heart progenitors: War Admiral, Blue Larkspur, Princequillo, Mahmoud or Sir Gallahad III. It is the rare exception that does not trace to any of the above 5 in the X passing position on the dam side.

The above angle is really not effective because the percent of starters qualifying is something like 90% and the percent of winners is around 90%. Therefore the impact value is around 1.00 which means these types are just winning their expected share of Derbies. No clout at all with this angle.

Similarly, one might say that around 92% of all Derby winners carry one of the following sire lines: Raise A Native, Nasrullah, Turn To, or Northern Dancer. This angle also has no clout because around 92% of all horses entered in the Derby carry one of the above 4 sire lines. An impact value of 1.00 or close to that has NO impact at all.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Almost every horse entered in every prep will trace to one of the following known large heart progenitors: War Admiral, Blue Larkspur, Princequillo, Mahmoud or Sir Gallahad III. It is the rare exception that does not trace to any of the above 5 in the X passing position on the dam side.

The above angle is really not effective because the percent of starters qualifying is something like 90% and the percent of winners is around 90%. Therefore the impact value is around 1.00 which means these types are just winning their expected share of Derbies. No clout at all with this angle.

Similarly, one might say that around 92% of all Derby winners carry one of the following sire lines: Raise A Native, Nasrullah, Turn To, or Northern Dancer. This angle also has no clout because around 92% of all horses entered in the Derby carry one of the above 4 sire lines. An impact value of 1.00 or close to that has NO impact at all.

Derby angles are dying.

Have been for the last 15 years.

Great breeding is great, but not needed. IMO, the in-breeding has become an issue.

"Other" influences and/or natural selection can and will take over.

[SecretAgentMan]

Derby angles are dying.

Have been for the last 15 years.

Great breeding is great, but not needed. IMO, the in-breeding has become an issue.

"Other" influences and/or natural selection can and will take over.



I agree. AP broke quite a few strong trends, then again, he did win the triple crown, & to break strong trends & angles, you need to be a special horse.

[CincyHorseplayer]

It's only good to realize overall and when bloodlines are dying out. If you were looking at male descent lines in 1966 before the Derby you would have known.

Kentucky Derby(1930-1965)

Bay Ronald-10

Isinglass-8

Teddy-8

Sundridge-3

Commando-3

4 others


Those were all the bloodlines that would trace many generations back to Eclipse. But that whole thing was dead. Phalaris was the new Eclipse. When we start to see new bloodlines emerge then we can get excited but it might not happen in our lifetimes. At least we have a basic overview of what bloodlines win. And being able to connect dots will lead you to what sires win on what surfaces. I remember thinking Big Brown was a cinch but wouldn't bet him as a favorite. Not in a race like the Derby. But I wouldn't have not bet him because he was a Northern Dancer! If you are a sorry ass handicapper pedigree isn't going to do much for you! In my derby bets I can't tell what mix of ability,pedigree,and running style I want. But I do know they should pay better than normal because this isn't a normal race and we are betting zit faced,temperamental teenagers! :)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

It's only good to realize overall and when bloodlines are dying out. If you were looking at male descent lines in 1966 before the Derby you would have known.

Kentucky Derby(1930-1965)

Bay Ronald-10

Isinglass-8

Teddy-8

Sundridge-3

Commando-3

4 others


Those were all the bloodlines that would trace many generations back to Eclipse. But that whole thing was dead. Phalaris was the new Eclipse. When we start to see new bloodlines emerge then we can get excited but it might not happen in our lifetimes. At least we have a basic overview of what bloodlines win. And being able to connect dots will lead you to what sires win on what surfaces. I remember thinking Big Brown was a cinch but wouldn't bet him as a favorite. Not in a race like the Derby. But I wouldn't have not bet him because he was a Northern Dancer! If you are a sorry ass handicapper pedigree isn't going to do much for you! In my derby bets I can't tell what mix of ability,pedigree,and running style I want. But I do know they should pay better than normal because this isn't a normal race and we are betting zit faced,temperamental teenagers! :)

Awesome.

At this point in time, you must know a horse or 3 that has the suggested "stuff" to get it done this year.

Would you be so kind to mention?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Awesome.

At this point in time, you must know a horse or 3 that has the suggested "stuff" to get it done this year.

Would you be so kind to mention?

I said it last week that only Mohaymen has really impressed me. But before the big preps I can't really say. You want a fast horse and you have to believe he hasn't peaked in one of those races and won't be damaged by a fast pace if he is up close early. By May I could like a couple of them and bet only the appetizing odds which I am more than happy to share. Just enjoying the ride right now. This is fun! I like sorting through all this stuff every spring. It never gets old!

[CincyHorseplayer]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/Thoroughbred-Pedigree-Weekly/?&utm_source=PedigreeNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20160317

This was an interesting little read.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I said it last week that only Mohaymen has really impressed me. But before the big preps I can't really say. You want a fast horse and you have to believe he hasn't peaked in one of those races and won't be damaged by a fast pace if he is up close early. By May I could like a couple of them and bet only the appetizing odds which I am more than happy to share. Just enjoying the ride right now. This is fun! I like sorting through all this stuff every spring. It never gets old!

No offense, but my 100 year old grandmother rolling into the track and picking up a form for the first time in over a decade can see Mohaymen.

Ray Charles can see Mohaymen.

I'll wait till May, I guess, to get a Mohaymen/Nyquist exacta. :D

[CincyHorseplayer]

No offense, but my 100 year old grandmother rolling into the track and picking up a form for the first time in over a decade can see Mohaymen.

Ray Charles can see Mohaymen.

I'll wait till May, I guess, to get a Mohaymen/Nyquist exacta. :D

None taken. I'm giving you an honest answer because other than the TB Derby none of the big preps have been run. If you are seeing Derby horses all over the place right now at this moment you might need to have your 100 yr old grandmother read you Jack and the Beanstalk because that fairy tale is right up your alley.

The Derby is 1 race. Plus it's March. Other than that we all love the chase who gives a $hit if we don't have a Derby horse right now?! :cool:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Here this is your 2016 Derby Guide!

https://i0.wp.com/marbellamarbella.es/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/nostradamus-m-ridge.jpg

[Lemon Drop Husker]

None taken. I'm giving you an honest answer because other than the TB Derby none of the big preps have been run. If you are seeing Derby horses all over the place right now at this moment you might need to have your 100 yr old grandmother read you Jack and the Beanstalk because that fairy tale is right up your alley.

The Derby is 1 race. Plus it's March. Other than that we all love the chase who gives a $hit if we don't have a Derby horse right now?! :cool:

The trail is fun. Really fun.

I apologize. I look back on my comments and they didn't quite read how I would have liked.

I guess I'll quit while I'm behind.

[PowerUpPaynter]

No offense, but my 100 year old grandmother rolling into the track and picking up a form for the first time in over a decade can see Mohaymen.

Ray Charles can see Mohaymen.

I'll wait till May, I guess, to get a Mohaymen/Nyquist exacta. :D


I got my Mohaymen/Nyquist exacta in November in futures pool 1 lol

[SecretAgentMan]

Here this is your 2016 Derby Guide!

https://i0.wp.com/marbellamarbella.es/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/nostradamus-m-ridge.jpg



Sorry, but I prefer to use the more time tested prognosticator, the sports almanac from Back to the Future :)

[SecretAgentMan]

Also, we shouldn't rush into picking a derby horse this early, because if you convince your mind into thinking you have the derby winner, you may miss out on.the real winner. Picking a horse right now will give you tunnel vision.

I didn't puck Funny Cide until 2 days before the derby. Monarchos I didn't pick until the night before. I think our capping was better before the internet days. We didn't rush, & we had to wait until.the racing form posted past performances of the top 20 possible derby runners a month before the derby.

The internet has great information, but it can also cause an overload of info sending our minds in 5 different directions.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The trail is fun. Really fun.

I apologize. I look back on my comments and they didn't quite read how I would have liked.

I guess I'll quit while I'm behind.

It's cool. We're just poking at each other a little. After watching races from noon to 9 and doing some follow ups it was just a long fun day!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Sorry, but I prefer to use the more time tested prognosticator, the sports almanac from Back to the Future :)

Yeah I'm not quite ready to go full on prophetic on 3/20!

I will say that last year I did have a Derby horse. Far From Over had the late kick of a turf horse and I was ready to roll on him. I really liked Orb in 2013. Other recent years including this one nothing is jumping out at me.

But.........That some of the races are coming up fast, 3 on Beyer have been clocked around 100 bodes well for us. A uniformity of contenders with equal abilities always gets the greed gene flowing. Let's call it Benjamins in the X! :D

And FG,TB,and OP thank god for them in their Derby preps with bettable fields. GP and SA might have the most concentrated batch of talent but I haven't bet $1 on their races.

[SecretAgentMan]

Only 2 horses that I picked early, which were right after the SA derby were Real Quiet & Chrome. Had both of those locked in & didn't care about anyt other horse except to puck the exacta & triple. But for me, those are far & few between.

One thing I would do if they had this betting opportunity, would be to bet against Baffert winning the derby this year. I'm.very confident in this bet.

[sbcaris]

Lemon Drop Hukster: You said that Derby angles are dying and have been for the last 15 years.

I only agree with you if your looking at some angles like the one I posted above about Large Heart X tracing to 5 major stallions but regarding other angles you would be wrong. The following examples prove that there are very reliable angles for the run for the roses:

1)Horses that race a final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less in a major prep race at 9 furlongs continue to win the roses with a statistical advantage. California Chrome, American Pharaoh, Orb and I'll Have Another (the last 4 winners fit this angle). This angle of mine has a very high impact value of around 2.00.

2) Horses who carry The Raise A Native sire line and demonstrate a fast final finish in a major prep at 9 furlongs continue to win the roses with a definite statistical edge.

3) Horses that carry a strong conduit mare in tail female continue to win the roses with a definite statistical edge.

4)Horses that achieve a 98 Beyer fig in a 9 furlong prep continue to win more than their expected share of Derbies.

5)Horses that are found in families 1 or 23 have won more than their expected share of Derbies.

6)Horses carrying Buckpasser in the X that finish fast in a 9 furlong prep race have won way more than their expected share of Derbies.

These are some of the angles in my book----Analyzing The Triple Crown--- which can be purchased at American Turf Monthly.

[raybo]

Almost every horse entered in every prep will trace to one of the following known large heart progenitors: War Admiral, Blue Larkspur, Princequillo, Mahmoud or Sir Gallahad III. It is the rare exception that does not trace to any of the above 5 in the X passing position on the dam side.

The above angle is really not effective because the percent of starters qualifying is something like 90% and the percent of winners is around 90%. Therefore the impact value is around 1.00 which means these types are just winning their expected share of Derbies. No clout at all with this angle.

Similarly, one might say that around 92% of all Derby winners carry one of the following sire lines: Raise A Native, Nasrullah, Turn To, or Northern Dancer. This angle also has no clout because around 92% of all horses entered in the Derby carry one of the above 4 sire lines. An impact value of 1.00 or close to that has NO impact at all.

While you may be correct that many horses can be traced back to one of those large heart progenitors, the large heart "gene" can never be passed from male to male, it can only be passed from male to female, or female to male or female. So, that takes a lot of horses out of the picture.

The large heart gene is passed on the x chromesome, but can only be passed in the above scenarios, male to female, or female to male or female, never from male to male. So, automatically, the large heart gene cannot be gained by a male horse from its sire side at all, only from its dam's side, and it's rare to get it from its dam's sire side (can't think of any male examples off the top of my head who could have gotten the large heart gene from it's dam's sire side). It is the dam's dam side that passes the large heart gene the vast majority of the time (and it's still rare from that line). So that dam's dam side must have the large heart gene progenitor in it for there to be much chance of inheriting the large heart gene at all.

And, after all that is said and done, just because it "could" be passed, it may not be. The only way to know for sure is by physical examination of the heart itself. So, just because there is the possibility of the large heart gene being present, through inheritance, there is no guarantee that it was passed, and there is no guarantee that it will produce a large heart even if it was passed.

[ultracapper]

Did Secretariat pass it to AP Indy?

[sbcaris]

Ultracapper: AP Indy probably has around 50% of Secretariat's X and 25% of Buckpasser's X. These were two outstanding broodmare sires. So AP Indy probably has superlative genes on his X chromosome and he too is becoming a very strong broodmare sire. I believe he leads the list this year as the number 1 broodmare sire in North America.

[raybo]

Did Secretariat pass it to AP Indy?

I believe you are talking about the "large heart" gene. Secretariat certainly possessed the large heart, as proven after his death. Secretariat, being a male, could indeed have passed that large heart gene to Weekend Surprise (AP Indy's dam), and Weekend Surprise could then have passed it to AP Indy. This is one of those far rarer examples, that I could not recall in my earlier post, where the dam's sire side could pass the large heart on. Usually, the large heart gene possibility comes from the dam's dam side.

So, not only does AP Indy have a portion of Buckpasser's x chromesome, he also has the possibility of possessing a larger than normal heart via his dam Weekend Surprise. He actually has an even better chance of having the large heart gene by having War Admiral in his dam's dam side (War Admiral to Busanda to Buckpasser to Lassie Dear to Weekend Surprise to AP Indy.

[sbcaris]

Raybo: You said, that AP Indy is one of those rarer examples where the dam's sire side could pass the large heart on. Then you said, "Usually the large heart gene possibility comes from the dam's dam side."

I've read all three of Marianna Haun's book on the X factor and nowhere does she ever make such a claim.

The probability that the large heart gene comes from the dam's sire is just as great as the probability that the large heart comes from the dam's dam.

[raybo]

Raybo: You said, that AP Indy is one of those rarer examples where the dam's sire side could pass the large heart on. Then you said, "Usually the large heart gene possibility comes from the dam's dam side."

I've read all three of Marianna Haun's book on the X factor and nowhere does she ever make such a claim.

The probability that the large heart gene comes from the dam's sire is just as great as the probability that the large heart comes from the dam's dam.

I didn't say that Haun stated that. In my research into large heart gene possibilities, in male horses, I find that, much more often, the possibility comes through the dam's dam side. Probabilities are just probabilities, and are usually based on large, and often aged, numbers, my research is much more recent.

Most of the time, when I find the possibility of the large heart gene being present, in a "male" horse, it is in the dam's dam side.

[sbcaris]

Raybo: I am interested in what kind of research you did to come up with the idea that the large heart is much more likely to be transmitted by way of the dam's dam than it is by the dam's sire? How can you even go about checking something like this.

[raybo]

Raybo: I am interested in what kind of research you did to come up with the idea that the large heart is much more likely to be transmitted by way of the dam's dam than it is by the dam's sire? How can you even go about checking something like this.

By looking at pedigrees of certain Kentucky Derby hopefuls who had shown the possibility of a large heart influence in their performances. Granted, there is a small number of Derby hopeful horses having both the possibility of inheriting the large heart gene, and also exhibiting typical large heart enhanced performances (running faster farther, etc..). But, of this research, most of the LH gene possibles, became possibles through their dam's dam side, rather than their dam's sire side.

Maybe it's just an anomaly of that small set of horses, but that is my assertion based on that research. My philosophy regarding the large heart gene is that, the farther back in the pedigree you go, the less likely the large heart gene was successfully passed all the way forward to present times. It's not a scientific approach, but then, even with a horse that has a large hearted dam, doesn't guarantee that the large heart gene gets passed on, or that it will result in a large heart if it did get passed on. Having the possibility of possessing the large heart gene, means nothing, if it is not expressed in actual performances.

[SecretAgentMan]

By looking at pedigrees of certain Kentucky Derby hopefuls who had shown the possibility of a large heart influence in their performances. Granted, there is a small number of Derby hopeful horses having both the possibility of inheriting the large heart gene, and also exhibiting typical large heart enhanced performances (running faster farther, etc..). But, of this research, most of the LH gene possibles, became possibles through their dam's dam side, rather than their dam's sire side.

Maybe it's just an anomaly of that small set of horses, but that is my assertion based on that research. My philosophy regarding the large heart gene is that, the farther back in the pedigree you go, the less likely the large heart gene was successfully passed all the way forward to present times. It's not a scientific approach, but then, even with a horse that has a large hearted dam, doesn't guarantee that the large heart gene gets passed on, or that it will result in a large heart if it did get passed on. Having the possibility of possessing the large heart gene, means nothing, if it is not expressed in actual performances.



Ray, what horses are in your list for this years running? Thanks in advance!

[raybo]

Ray, what horses are in your list for this years running? Thanks in advance!

None yet, 1 1/16th mile preps don't tell me enough regarding the possibility of large hearts being present and expressing themselves in performances. The 9f preps are better tests of that. And, there are still too many horses capable of making the Derby field. As I said, it's really the performances that point to the large heart, the inheritance portion is just a qualifier for the possibility.

[ultracapper]

Yes Raybo, it was the large heart gene I was questioning about.

So what you are suggesting is a filly out of Weekend Surprise would be most likely to pass on the large heart gene than Weekend Surprise would herself?

This is interesting.

[ultracapper]

Bad post. Re-thinking. AP Indy- Seattle Slew/Weekend Surprise-Secretariat, correct?

Was Slew/WS a one timer? I might have been inclined to try again, considering what came of it this time, wouldn't you?

[sbcaris]

Raybo: According to all the research that has been done in the field of genomics the gene that Haun proposed on the X chromosome that develops a large heart has never been discovered. In all three of her books she hypothesizes that a single gene on the X was responsible for large heart development. In light of all the research done so far no such gene has been found. However, the X chromosome carries a multitude of genes and some of them are superior variants that relate to broodmare sire success.

That is why in my analysis I prefer to use the phrase X-Line as opposed to heartline. The X passing position is important and since the X chromosome is transmitted from a sire to all his daughters and none of this sons the X Line is probably responsible for allowing a broodmare sire to be successful.

Based on fundamental patterns of genetics there is just as much chance for a broodmare sire to transmit his X chromosome to a foal as there is for a dam's dam to transmit it. In fact the percentage of the X chromosome passed on to a maternal grandson from the broodmare sire is actually greater than the percentage of the X passed on from a dam's dam. (50 versus 25). An explanation of that follows:

AP Indy receives 50% of Secretariat's X chromosome whereas Lassie Dear who is AP Indy's second dam transmits only 25% of Secretariat's X to AP Indy.

The first transmission works as follows: Secretariat sends 100% of his X chromosome to his daughter Weekend Surprise. Weekend Surprise because of recombination of genes in crossing over sends 50% of Secretariats X to AP Indy

The second transmission works as follows: Lassie Dear a daughter of Buckpasser is the second dam of AP Indy. Lassie Dear sends 50% of Buckpasssers X to her daughter Weekend Surprise and Weekend Surprise sends 25% of Buckpasser's X to her son AP Indy.

Conclusion: The broodmare sire of a male horse contributes twice as much of his X chromosome than does the second dam of the male horse. It is more likely that the sire of the dam is more influential in all ways than the second dam of that horse.

[sbcaris]

I made a mistake in my above post. in the fourth paragraph I meant to say that Lassie Dear transmits only 25% of Buckpasser's X chromosome to AP Indy.

[ultracapper]

Raybo: According to all the research that has been done in the field of genomics the gene that Haun proposed on the X chromosome that develops a large heart has never been discovered. In all three of her books she hypothesizes that a single gene on the X was responsible for large heart development. In light of all the research done so far no such gene has been found. However, the X chromosome carries a multitude of genes and some of them are superior variants that relate to broodmare sire success.

That is why in my analysis I prefer to use the phrase X-Line as opposed to heartline. The X passing position is important and since the X chromosome is transmitted from a sire to all his daughters and none of this sons the X Line is probably responsible for allowing a broodmare sire to be successful.

Based on fundamental patterns of genetics there is just as much chance for a broodmare sire to transmit his X chromosome to a foal as there is for a dam's dam to transmit it. In fact the percentage of the X chromosome passed on to a maternal grandson from the broodmare sire is actually greater than the percentage of the X passed on from a dam's dam. (50 versus 25). An explanation of that follows:

AP Indy receives 50% of Secretariat's X chromosome whereas Lassie Dear who is AP Indy's second dam transmits only 25% of Secretariat's X to AP Indy.

The first transmission works as follows: Secretariat sends 100% of his X chromosome to his daughter Weekend Surprise. Weekend Surprise because of recombination of genes in crossing over sends 50% of Secretariats X to AP Indy

The second transmission works as follows: Lassie Dear a daughter of Buckpasser is the second dam of AP Indy. Lassie Dear sends 50% of Buckpasssers X to her daughter Weekend Surprise and Weekend Surprise sends 25% of Buckpasser's X to her son AP Indy.

Conclusion: The broodmare sire of a male horse contributes twice as much of his X chromosome than does the second dam of the male horse. It is more likely that the sire of the dam is more influential in all ways than the second dam of that horse.

Just so I can follow along.

Weekend Surprise is by Sec out of Lassie Dear?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Raybo: According to all the research that has been done in the field of genomics the gene that Haun proposed on the X chromosome that develops a large heart has never been discovered. In all three of her books she hypothesizes that a single gene on the X was responsible for large heart development. In light of all the research done so far no such gene has been found. However, the X chromosome carries a multitude of genes and some of them are superior variants that relate to broodmare sire success.

That is why in my analysis I prefer to use the phrase X-Line as opposed to heartline. The X passing position is important and since the X chromosome is transmitted from a sire to all his daughters and none of this sons the X Line is probably responsible for allowing a broodmare sire to be successful.

Based on fundamental patterns of genetics there is just as much chance for a broodmare sire to transmit his X chromosome to a foal as there is for a dam's dam to transmit it. In fact the percentage of the X chromosome passed on to a maternal grandson from the broodmare sire is actually greater than the percentage of the X passed on from a dam's dam. (50 versus 25). An explanation of that follows:

AP Indy receives 50% of Secretariat's X chromosome whereas Lassie Dear who is AP Indy's second dam transmits only 25% of Secretariat's X to AP Indy.

The first transmission works as follows: Secretariat sends 100% of his X chromosome to his daughter Weekend Surprise. Weekend Surprise because of recombination of genes in crossing over sends 50% of Secretariats X to AP Indy

The second transmission works as follows: Lassie Dear a daughter of Buckpasser is the second dam of AP Indy. Lassie Dear sends 50% of Buckpasssers X to her daughter Weekend Surprise and Weekend Surprise sends 25% of Buckpasser's X to her son AP Indy.

Conclusion: The broodmare sire of a male horse contributes twice as much of his X chromosome than does the second dam of the male horse. It is more likely that the sire of the dam is more influential in all ways than the second dam of that horse.

This is good stuff. Can't wait to get your book in the mail. I am fresh out of what I call the dot to dot phase with pedigree. I can connect all the families via male line. I did a few projects like looking at the Triple Crown races male and female lines of winners to root sires going back to 1978. The Derby I went back to 1900 because I wanted to see when and how abruptly pedigree lines change and die out. I took all the top turf sires from Progressive's Sire Ratings and made family trees for all the lines in the entire book which is a great help when looking at horses that haven't raced on grass. But I really don't know much about genetics and how female history is viewed and it's practical applications in our game. People like yourself and Lauren Stitch I am in awe of because it takes almost encyclopedic knowledge to fully understand. These are my next steps. And I dig it. It's interesting.

[raybo]

Raybo: According to all the research that has been done in the field of genomics the gene that Haun proposed on the X chromosome that develops a large heart has never been discovered. In all three of her books she hypothesizes that a single gene on the X was responsible for large heart development. In light of all the research done so far no such gene has been found. However, the X chromosome carries a multitude of genes and some of them are superior variants that relate to broodmare sire success.

That is why in my analysis I prefer to use the phrase X-Line as opposed to heartline. The X passing position is important and since the X chromosome is transmitted from a sire to all his daughters and none of this sons the X Line is probably responsible for allowing a broodmare sire to be successful.

Based on fundamental patterns of genetics there is just as much chance for a broodmare sire to transmit his X chromosome to a foal as there is for a dam's dam to transmit it. In fact the percentage of the X chromosome passed on to a maternal grandson from the broodmare sire is actually greater than the percentage of the X passed on from a dam's dam. (50 versus 25). An explanation of that follows:

AP Indy receives 50% of Secretariat's X chromosome whereas Lassie Dear who is AP Indy's second dam transmits only 25% of Secretariat's X to AP Indy.

The first transmission works as follows: Secretariat sends 100% of his X chromosome to his daughter Weekend Surprise. Weekend Surprise because of recombination of genes in crossing over sends 50% of Secretariats X to AP Indy

The second transmission works as follows: Lassie Dear a daughter of Buckpasser is the second dam of AP Indy. Lassie Dear sends 50% of Buckpasssers X to her daughter Weekend Surprise and Weekend Surprise sends 25% of Buckpasser's X to her son AP Indy.

Conclusion: The broodmare sire of a male horse contributes twice as much of his X chromosome than does the second dam of the male horse. It is more likely that the sire of the dam is more influential in all ways than the second dam of that horse.

That's fine. You obviously are very well versed on the x chromesome and the probabilities of it being passed to future generations. I'll stick with my LH gene research coupled with actual performances that further point to the existence of a larger than normal heart.

The only reason I posted in this thread was because you named the topic specifically "large heart x", and went on to state that almost every horse in every prep race can trace their pedigrees back to 5 large heart progenitor sires. That statement would suggest to many here that sires are more important than dams, regarding the LH gene. When we are talking about Derby preps, we are primarily talking about male horses, and male horses can never receive the LH gene from their sires, only from their dams. I was just clearing that up. My own personal research results show that the possibility, backed by performances, of a Derby trail horse possibly possessing the LH gene happens more often through the dam's dam side than the dam's sire side. Take that as you will, but those are my results.

I'll just crawl back in my little hole and do my own thing. Carry on!

[sbcaris]

Raybo: Do you have any evidence that you could post here that backs up your claim that the LH-X (if it even exists) has much more chance of being transmitted by the dam's dam than the dam's sire?

[dilanesp]

Remember, a lot of Derby "angles" were the result of small samples in the first place.

There really isn't a lot you can conclude about any complex multivariable issue (and a horse race with 19 or 20 starters is a complex multivariable issue) with less than 150 events.

[dilanesp]

Secretariat certainly possessed the large heart, as proven after his death.

Bear in mind, the only actual proof of Secretariat's heart size is based on examinations while he was alive (which showed something like a 14 or 15 pound heart). The story of the necropsy is pretty obviously a fish story (the story tracked almost word for word a famous, real story about Phar Lap's heart, which was documented, the examiner did nothing at all to document Secretariat's supposed 22 pound heart, and he made a claim about Sham's heart which is just preposterous). Unfortunately, William Nack, a very gullible person, bought it hook line and sinker.

So any claims about X-factor based on the size of Secretariat's heart are rather shaky.

[raybo]

Bear in mind, the only actual proof of Secretariat's heart size is based on examinations while he was alive (which showed something like a 14 or 15 pound heart). The story of the necropsy is pretty obviously a fish story (the story tracked almost word for word a famous, real story about Phar Lap's heart, which was documented, the examiner did nothing at all to document Secretariat's supposed 22 pound heart, and he made a claim about Sham's heart which is just preposterous). Unfortunately, William Nack, a very gullible person, bought it hook line and sinker.

So any claims about X-factor based on the size of Secretariat's heart are rather shaky.

Last post in this thread for me. As I said, the possibility of a horse having the large heart gene is only a qualifier for my research. The horse must run like he has a larger than normal heart in order to catch my eye. Secretariat certainly ran, at least one race, as if his heart was huge (the Belmont), so based on his performances, and the definite possibility of his inheriting the LH gene, I believe what resulted from the necropsy, that being that his heart was well over twice the size of a normal thoroughbred heart. Believe or disbelieve what you wish.