Cupid

[magwell]

Very impressive today in the Rebel looks to be the real deal......;)

[CincyHorseplayer]

I was surprised to see him on the lead with a good amount of speed in the race. Let's see how it comes back!

[Stillriledup]

Very impressive today in the Rebel looks to be the real deal......;)

He ducked in and lost momentum entering the lane but then got really competitive when he sensed the other horse. I agree, that was strong.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Very nice win.

Arkansas Derby will tell the story.

[SecretAgentMan]

I hope Cupid wins wire to wire in the Ark derby & Danzig Candy does the same in the SA derby, & they both go nuts in the KD up front & burn everyone up there....wishful thinking!

[Robert Fischer]

Was over once he broke on top.
We knew he would duck in entering the lane as he always does(and that was the only real question), but horse and rider adjusted well.

Wasn't clear that he'd be controlling speed prior to the race. Baffert is a strong believer in taking the initiative and in the value of a forwardly placed runner, and his workouts may have revealed the intent.

Coming in, he seemed like he could win by default at 2-1/5-2 or so.

His faults could come back to haunt him down the road.

Congrats if you scored big on this square price today. :ThmbUp:

[CincyHorseplayer]

I hope Cupid wins wire to wire in the Ark derby & Danzig Candy does the same in the SA derby, & they both go nuts in the KD up front & burn everyone up there....wishful thinking!

Amen! :ThmbUp:

[SecretAgentMan]

Cupid received a 95 beyer

[PowerUpPaynter]

Cupid received a 95 beyer


and a 114 TimeFormUS figure

[PowerUpPaynter]

As per Jay Privamn he is headed home will point toward either Santa Anita Derby, Blurgrass or Arkansas Derby

[BIG49010]

Cupid received a 95 beyer

I thought that was a little low, considering he was faster than an all out to win Upstart who had run some 100's in the past.

The 11th race had an interesting 3yr old who ran a monster race eased up who was rolling slowly behind horses and got loose late, American Pioneer will be a horse to watch!

[PowerUpPaynter]

I thought that was a little low, considering he was faster than an all out to win Upstart who had run some 100's in the past.

The 11th race had an interesting 3yr old who ran a monster race eased up who was rolling slowly behind horses and got loose late, American Pioneer will be a horse to watch!


Upstarts 100's are throw out. Gulfstream last year was giving out huge beyers to not so good horses...

[BIG49010]

Upstarts 100's are throw out. Gulfstream last year was giving out huge beyers to not so good horses...

102 at Belmont & 92 with rough trip in BC, would think he is is deserving of a 100, as a 4 year old. I had no opinion on the race, but most thought he was a bad bet on TVG. Never worse than 3rd in all 7 starts, he's a real racehorse!

[burnsy]

Was over once he broke on top.
We knew he would duck in entering the lane as he always does(and that was the only real question), but horse and rider adjusted well.

Wasn't clear that he'd be controlling speed prior to the race. Baffert is a strong believer in taking the initiative and in the value of a forwardly placed runner, and his workouts may have revealed the intent.

Coming in, he seemed like he could win by default at 2-1/5-2 or so.

His faults could come back to haunt him down the road.

Congrats if you scored big on this square price today. :ThmbUp:


That's was my point in the Rebel thread. As the competition gets deeper, a horse won't get away with that. Its really not a good sign if its habitual. Whitmore seems like the kind of horse that hangs around after he makes a move. He will be facing much better soon and better get his act straight because the distances get longer and the competition gets stiffer.

[CincyHorseplayer]

That's was my point in the Rebel thread. As the competition gets deeper, a horse won't get away with that. Its really not a good sign if its habitual. Whitmore seems like the kind of horse that hangs around after he makes a move. He will be facing much better soon and better get his act straight because the distances get longer and the competition gets stiffer.

You bring up an interesting point and I would add Whitmore too. That one is always having bad breaks. In 4 of his 5 starts he has had a problem out of the gate.

[burnsy]

You bring up an interesting point and I would add Whitmore too. That one is always having bad breaks. In 4 of his 5 starts he has had a problem out of the gate.

Agreed, and that field looked mostly like horses that will probably run shorter races. Its almost April and some of the strong contenders are running straight and fast. Cupid and Whitmore will have to step it up to beat some of these others......IMO.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Agreed, and that field looked mostly like horses that will probably run shorter races. Its almost April and some of the strong contenders are running straight and fast. Cupid and Whitmore will have to step it up to beat some of these others......IMO.

Watching the replay I still cannot believe Whitmore did not blow by Cupid. But I've seen that type of move before. In other races it might be labled as the premature move but his timing was right, he just flattened out. As his first fast route race and 2nd around 2 turns(Delta is 3 t) and 3yo I don't bring the hammer of judgement down too quickly on ANY of these you know? This guy might very well be sitting on a huge race next out. Watchmaker was pointing out the final time and the 22.8 quarter by Cupid Saturday well what about those 3rd and 4th quarters of 25.2 and 25.6? With no pressure the race was won there.

[burnsy]

Watching the replay I still cannot believe Whitmore did not blow by Cupid. But I've seen that type of move before. In other races it might be labled as the premature move but his timing was right, he just flattened out. As his first fast route race and 2nd around 2 turns(Delta is 3 t) and 3yo I don't bring the hammer of judgement down too quickly on ANY of these you know? This guy might very well be sitting on a huge race next out. Watchmaker was pointing out the final time and the 22.8 quarter by Cupid Saturday well what about those 3rd and 4th quarters of 25.2 and 25.6? With no pressure the race was won there.

I saw the race the exact same way you are saying. I actually thought Whitmore could not lose when the race unfolded but I didn't use him either. I had Cupid with a couple others underneath. You can't toss these horses yet but in the next round they gotta do more.

[SecretAgentMan]

I saw the race the exact same way you are saying. I actually thought Whitmore could not lose when the race unfolded but I didn't use him either. I had Cupid with a couple others underneath. You can't toss these horses yet but in the next round they gotta do more.



You would think, Whitmore would have to run a huge race & win in his next race for him to be a play in May, then again, look at Giacomo, not many seen him coming.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You would think, Whitmore would have to run a huge race & win in his next race for him to be a play in May, then again, look at Giacomo, not many seen him coming.

I think Cupid needs to show more too. Letting it sink in a little more the horse ran from the 1/2 mile to the mile mark in 50.8 on an uncontested lead. Even if the time was fast that wasn't a completely heroic display of intestinal fortitude that last 16th of a mile.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Watching the replay I still cannot believe Whitmore did not blow by Cupid. But I've seen that type of move before. In other races it might be labled as the premature move but his timing was right, he just flattened out. As his first fast route race and 2nd around 2 turns(Delta is 3 t) and 3yo I don't bring the hammer of judgement down too quickly on ANY of these you know? This guy might very well be sitting on a huge race next out. Watchmaker was pointing out the final time and the 22.8 quarter by Cupid Saturday well what about those 3rd and 4th quarters of 25.2 and 25.6? With no pressure the race was won there.


Whitmore has gotten good experience his past 2 races navigating thru heavy traffic to make a move. That cant hurt for the derby. I just question his overall burst. I think its safe to say Whitmore will be a high odds horse and not able to win the derby but he could be a high odds horse landing in the super going off 35-1... Think Commanding Curve or Went The Day Well, Make Music For Me... etc

Sometimes finding that horse id more profitable then the winner

[pele polo]

Even with the soft second quarter, Cupid won this race much easier than what many thought his effort exuded.

IMO, the finest looking race I've seen thus far on the Derby Trail. I admire Mohaymen but have to give more due to a full field than a very short one.

[SecretAgentMan]

Whitmore has gotten good experience his past 2 races navigating thru heavy traffic to make a move. That cant hurt for the derby. I just question his overall burst. I think its safe to say Whitmore will be a high odds horse and not able to win the derby but he could be a high odds horse landing in the super going off 35-1... Think Commanding Curve or Went The Day Well, Make Music For Me... etc

Sometimes finding that horse id more profitable then the winner



Yup, you're right, there are some horses that will pay huge profits in the exotics, just have to find them. Commanding Curve coming in 2nd to Chrome paid $340 exacta, that's huge behind the favorite of a 20 horse field.

I really think we will see some big prices this year.

[delsully]

Whitmore has gotten good experience his past 2 races navigating thru heavy traffic to make a move. That cant hurt for the derby. I just question his overall burst. I think its safe to say Whitmore will be a high odds horse and not able to win the derby but he could be a high odds horse landing in the super going off 35-1... Think Commanding Curve or Went The Day Well, Make Music For Me... etc

Sometimes finding that horse id more profitable then the winner

I agree, I can't see him winning the derby, unless we have a total pace melt down. But stretching out will only help him.

I know I will be playing him on the bottom of my exotics.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I agree, I can't see him winning the derby, unless we have a total pace melt down. But stretching out will only help him.

I know I will be playing him on the bottom of my exotics.



yeah im a big fan of handicapping the derby from the bottom of the super up. Find the horses that can finish 2nd 3rd and 4th, even if its 6 or 7 different horses then zone in on a winner after all the big preps have been run.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Even though these are the raw times I still like to compare them. And for comparison's sake in 2 races that were ran nearly identical, Cupid and Danzing Candy. These are just the internal fractions added up after the first quarter. Both horses coincidentially ran an identical 22.8 to start.

Danzing Candy-48.2 + 32=80.2(23.2 +25 + 25.2 +6.8)(San Felipe)

Cupid-49.2 +31.8=81(24 +25.2 + 25.6 +6.2)(Rebel)

Danzing Candy ran 4 fifths of a second faster and did it without showing any greeness in the stretch. Right now when comparing just frontrunner to frontrunner DC gets the nod. But we don't know what else Cupid can do yet so it'll be interesting.