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PIC6SIX
03-17-2016, 08:00 PM
Most everyone can handicap and pick intermittent winners or possibly more often. To win at this game YOUR MONEY HAS TO BE IN THE RIGHT POOL. End of story.

EMD4ME
03-17-2016, 08:10 PM
Most everyone can handicap and pick intermittent winners or possibly more often. To win at this game YOUR MONEY HAS TO BE IN THE RIGHT POOL. End of story.

What if your money is in the right pool but you construct tickets poorly?

BELMONT 6-6-09
03-17-2016, 08:29 PM
Most everyone can handicap and pick intermittent winners or possibly more often. To win at this game YOUR MONEY HAS TO BE IN THE RIGHT POOL. End of story.

There are edges in virtually every pool. The key is to always wager with an edge, and the edge must be something that you can validate based on statistics and past plays that you have made. basically NEVER AGAIN MAKE A BAD PERCENTAGE PLAY if you want to have a chance to succeed.

VigorsTheGrey
03-17-2016, 11:52 PM
There are edges in virtually every pool. The key is to always wager with an edge, and the edge must be something that you can validate based on statistics and past plays that you have made. basically NEVER AGAIN MAKE A BAD PERCENTAGE PLAY if you want to have a chance to succeed.

How so? Can you expand on this a bit more? I think what you say is true, but how do you go about finding specifically what these edges are in the short time we have prior ot the start of the race. I assume these edges that you speak of are PECULIAR to each pool...so how do you go about identifying these peculiarities?

VigorsTheGrey
03-18-2016, 12:12 AM
Most everyone can handicap and pick intermittent winners or possibly more often. To win at this game YOUR MONEY HAS TO BE IN THE RIGHT POOL. End of story.

There is truth in what you say here. How do you organize you pool selection process and winnow out which pools you want to bet into? I assume it is the pools of "A" tracks that have the larger pools...I don't like betting into exotics that have small pools, but then again sometimes it is easier to "scoop the pool" when there are less bettors betting less combinations...It is hard enough to hit a superfecta but to get paid really poorly for it is horrible....the dime super gets hammered sometimes to the point of ridiculousness..

.There's so many factors of selection and limitation in this game it is mind boggling...Yet we can not play all the races nor should we....deciding when and where and how to "pull the trigger" is key...I know that I must change my game...showing up, form in hand, and scanning for 30 minutes each race then betting is disastrous to the pocketbook...

Much have I learned here, but it is the commitment to alter unsuccessful patterns and implementing more successful ones that is critical....What are your major guide posts that you organize your game around? Some players focus on single tracks, types of distances, conditions, trainers, jockeys, etc. Others focus more on money management, record keeping, wagering structure....

There are so many factors to consider and each of us approaches the game from a different angle...What's yours?

Nitro
03-18-2016, 01:17 AM
Most everyone can handicap and pick intermittent winners or possibly more often. To win at this game YOUR MONEY HAS TO BE IN THE RIGHT POOL. End of story.
Okay I’ll bite, but you really can’t argue with this premise, because it makes no sense. That is unless of course it’s referring to a fictional “story”. Besides any reference to picking intermittent winners can only come from one pool.

First of all not everyone can handicap, and believe it or not it’s not a mandatory requirement to play this game. Better yet, the process of handicapping is certainly not a prerequisite to winning (or profiting) no matter which method might be preferred. Besides who came up with the brilliant idea that in order to profit that you had to pick winners? This game is not about picking winners! It’s about making winning plays, and a winning play can come from any pool be it Mutual or Exotic (either horizontal or vertical). There is no “right” or wrong betting pool, because the choice is up to the individual, who may in fact be playing in multiple pools in the same race.

To win (or profit) at this game is really a very simple concept: Bet on your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, accept profits and losses with equal demeanor, and finally play within your means.
In other words, stay in your comfort zone.
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VigorsTheGrey
03-18-2016, 01:41 AM
Okay I’ll bite, but you really can’t argue with this premise, because it makes no sense. That is unless of course it’s referring to a fictional “story”. Besides any reference to picking intermittent winners can only come from one pool.

First of all not everyone can handicap, and believe it or not it’s not a mandatory requirement to play this game. Better yet, the process of handicapping is certainly not a prerequisite to winning (or profiting) no matter which method might be preferred. Besides who came up with the brilliant idea that in order to profit that you had to pick winners? This game is not about picking winners! It’s about making winning plays, and a winning play can come from any pool be it Mutual or Exotic (either horizontal or vertical). There is no “right” or wrong betting pool, because the choice is up to the individual, who may in fact be playing in multiple pools in the same race.

To win (or profit) at this game is really a very simple concept: Bet on your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, accept profits and losses with equal demeanor, and finally play within your means.
In other words, stay in your comfort zone.
.
.
Yes, I agree Nitro, but one simply must know what those strengths and weaknesses are to begin with....and for this I assume one must keep records. which most players do not...Being successful means to REALLY commit to being successful and with that comes a lot of personal responsibility to do the things we know we should be doing YET DON'T. It is easier to be lazy, and lazy horse players like so many other things in life are losing horse players..

BELMONT 6-6-09
03-18-2016, 08:23 AM
How so? Can you expand on this a bit more? I think what you say is true, but how do you go about finding specifically what these edges are in the short time we have prior ot the start of the race. I assume these edges that you speak of are PECULIAR to each pool...so how do you go about identifying these peculiarities?

One of the biggest edges is identifying a bad favorite and/or second choice in a race then with this premise you can take advantage of a race provided you have a selection in the race that meets your criteria for a risk of capital. Yes, this does not come along every race, however, when you can eliminate a bad favorite who has a good chunk of the pool you have a built in edge and you can take advantage in a few pools provided you are not guessing, hoping or wishing. YOU HAVE TO KNOW YOUR KEY SELECTION IS SOLID. The only way to know is to keep accurate records and do your homework.

raybo
03-18-2016, 12:11 PM
There is profit to be made in all the pools. But, the individual player decides which pools they play, and the individual player, more often than not, hasn't a clue which pools they should be playing. So, even though profit can be made in any of the pools, record keeping and analyzing each future race as to its profit making potential is extremely important. Yeah, it is "possible" to make profit without keeping records, just look at the amount bet versus the amount won. But, once you do that and find, in 98+% of cases, that you are actually not making money, then you must make a decision, either keep losing money, or start keeping records and find out where your money is best spent. The latter decision seems the only answer, if one is single minded in the goal of making profit. What happens often is that players finally decide that they want to make profit, but they lack the discipline and motivation to do what is necessary to make that profit, so they just keep losing money, blaming it on anything and everything except where the blame should be placed, on themselves and their lack of commitment and discipline.

PIC6SIX
03-18-2016, 05:08 PM
Yes, you must construct the ticket correctly. Let me explain my situation at SA on Thursday 3/17 in 8th race. I bet an exacta 2.6/4 and some SUs with the #4 3rd and 4th with the #2 and #6 as winners. The result was #2 winner, #4 second, and #6 third. The exacta paid $89 and the Tri box 2-4-6 paid $484 for $2. If I had boxed my horses for $1 I would have won $242 for a $6 bet. I also hedged and bet the #4 (24:1) WP. Place paid $20.

My point is that unless you are solely a W/P better this game is VERY tuff to bet in the exotics. Examply, how many times have you had the first 2 legs of a P3 but did not bet the rolling double. Had the winner in an exacta but did not have the place horse and did not bet your 5:1 winner straight up or WP ????? And this sorry goes on and on and YADDDAYADDDA. End of my ranting. To all, Please have a good day.

betovernetcapper
03-18-2016, 05:38 PM
OP is correct that there may be valve in any of the pools, It helps to have a tool like ATR to monitor what is happening in each pool. At tracks with small pools, your $20 bet in the place pool could wipe out your advantage. Then there are occasions when you've done everything right & got your bets in as they are entering the gate, only to find that the odds have shifted dramatically :bang: