favorites in the Derby

[sbcaris]

Someone said that since the favorite has won 3 years in a row that this year the favorite is not likely to win the roses.

That statement is not true because what happened in 2013, 2014 and 2015 is irrelevant to what is likely to happen in 2016. Those favorites winning have no effect whatsoever on who is likely to win this year.

The above is similar to a craps shoot in the following way: if 3 sevens come out in consecutive order what is the probability that the next toss will be a seven? Answer 1 chance in 6. In fact it is always 1 chance in 6 regardless of what occurred before.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm the one that said it! I play the odds, & since I play other sports as well, I see it all the time. Yes, mathematically the favorite can win, but on a big stage like this, I like my odds betting against the favorite, especially after seeing 3 in a row, & a triple crown winner.

When was the last time 4 favorites won in a row? Was it in the 1970's or 1960's.....I don't have the results from back then to know.

[Mc990]

It's not that the favorite won't win... It's that the favorite(s) will be bet down more than they should based on the general public's recency bias. Even more so considering AP won the triple crown last year.

[EMD4ME]

Fav is doing better because of the new point system.

Less sprinters, less chaotic flow. Less chaotic winners.

Especially the last 2 years.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Fav is doing better because of the new point system.

Less sprinters, less chaotic flow. Less chaotic winners.

Especially the last 2 years.


correct, seems like the new norm, the best horse wins... obviously trip and post position can skew that

[f2tornado]

The favorites the past few years fit most of my angles so I am not surprised they have fared well. The upsets that have occurred were certainly not flukes in hindsight. Both Mine That Bird (Raise A Native sire line) and Animal Kingdom had female family 1 or 23b which has been hot. I'll Have Another with Raise A Native sire line was also 23b who won the SA Derby with a fast sub 1:48 time. I have a hell of a time making a case for Giacomo aside from some fast closing fractions in his SA Derby and a top rider in Mike Smith. It was really just a lousy ride by Jeremy Rose on Afleet Alex that opened the door. Horse racing will provide flukes. I see no reason to dismiss this year's current favorite provided he runs a good final prep.

[ribjig]

I like my odds betting against the favorite, especially after seeing 3 in a row, & a triple crown winner.
Enough bettors thinking same way = last flash of odds
FALSE FAVORITE!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

[PowerUpPaynter]

The favorites the past few years fit most of my angles so I am not surprised they have fared well. The upsets that have occurred were certainly not flukes in hindsight. Both Mine That Bird (Raise A Native sire line) and Animal Kingdom had female family 1 or 23b which has been hot. I'll Have Another with Raise A Native sire line was also 23b who won the SA Derby with a fast sub 1:48 time. I have a hell of a time making a case for Giacomo aside from some fast closing fractions in his SA Derby and a top rider in Mike Smith. It was really just a lousy ride by Jeremy Rose on Afleet Alex that opened the door. Horse racing will provide flukes. I see no reason to dismiss this year's current favorite provided he runs a good final prep.



what is female family 1 or 23b and where do you get that info

[SecretAgentMan]

Enough bettors thinking same way = last flash of odds
FALSE FAVORITE!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:



Can't wait for May 7th!!!

[EMD4ME]

correct, seems like the new norm, the best horse wins... obviously trip and post position can skew that

Last year was a perfect example of what happens when 10-12 horses lose all shot (by being closers or losing a step at the gate).

The Derby shouldn't run 3-2-1. At least not to me, it doesn't feel right.

I miss seeing a speedball go out in 45. Causing flow....

[PaceAdvantage]

I miss seeing a speedball go out in 45. Causing flow....How big of an ego must one have when one gets seriously upset that a race doesn't unfold just like you think it should? :lol:

NOW I understand why you post some of the stuff that you do.

[f2tornado]

what is female family 1 or 23b and where do you get that info

Head over to pedigreequery dot com and enter name of horse. The family number is in brackets.
http://www.plainschase.com/cards/23b.JPG

[PowerUpPaynter]

Head over to pedigreequery dot com and enter name of horse. The family number is in brackets.
http://www.plainschase.com/cards/23b.JPG


oh i see. so that is like the original family like traced back to the 1600's in europe?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Last year was a perfect example of what happens when 10-12 horses lose all shot (by being closers or losing a step at the gate).

The Derby shouldn't run 3-2-1. At least not to me, it doesn't feel right.

I miss seeing a speedball go out in 45. Causing flow....

We'll be good this year EMD,... trust me.

Easy fractions/lead or not, we'll get a real winner home this year. OK, maybe not a real winner, but one that the "regs" will not expect.

[EMD4ME]

How big of an ego must one have when one gets seriously upset that a race doesn't unfold just like you think it should? :lol:

NOW I understand why you post some of the stuff that you do.

No.

Respectfully, I have no unhealthy ego. I have a healthy ego when it comes to being proud of being a loyal friend, co-worker, family member.

What I was saying was I miss the days, you know the 100 of 143 or so beforehand, of having a hot pace in the Derby.

I want a horse with tactical speed to be able to stalk a hot pace AND win OVER a suck up deep closer.

I want a true championship caliber winner. I want a horse that wins and there is NO question who was best in a race like this.

Not an ego speaking but a passionate fan who wants to see greatness crush, with no doubters.

[SecretAgentMan]

No.

Respectfully, I have no unhealthy ego. I have a healthy ego when it comes to being proud of being a loyal friend, co-worker, family member.

What I was saying was I miss the days, you know the 100 of 143 or so beforehand, of having a hot pace in the Derby.

I want a horse with tactical speed to be able to stalk a hot pace AND win OVER a suck up deep closer.

I want a true championship caliber winner. I want a horse that wins and there is NO question who was best in a race like this.

Not an ego speaking but a passionate fan who wants to see greatness crush, with no doubters.



I agree, make it tough for the top horse. Point Given was a great horse but was too close to the pace stalking the rabbit & he faded to 5th while the deep close Monarchos won easily.

Thing is, the trainer & jockey both can cap the race & know how to ride their horse. Baffert & Stevens knew there was a rabbit n the race, so adapt. Stevens rode him bad in the derby, but Point Given destroyed the Preakness & Belmont.

Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Chrome & AP were all forwardly placed around the first turn, all 4 were tucked right behind the front runners. Thing is, rabbits were able to get into Smartys & Big Browns derby's, but nothing happened.

Maybe these 2 horses were much better than we thought? Who knows, maybe the favs will continue to win? Only time will tell!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I agree, make it tough for the top horse. Point Given was a great horse but was too close to the pace stalking the rabbit & he faded to 5th while the deep close Monarchos won easily.

Thing is, the trainer & jockey both can cap the race & know how to ride their horse. Baffert & Stevens knew there was a rabbit n the race, so adapt. Stevens rode him bad in the derby, but Point Given destroyed the Preakness & Belmont.

Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Chrome & AP were all forwardly placed around the first turn, all 4 were tucked right behind the front runners. Thing is, rabbits were able to get into Smartys & Big Browns derby's, but nothing happened.

Maybe these 2 horses were much better than we thought? Who knows, maybe the favs will continue to win? Only time will tell!

Point Given was sitting 7th in perfect stalking position, he wasn't setting any kind of fractions. He was stalking perfectly. Racing luck is sometimes racing luck. '

PG's biggest problem in the Derby was he was such a big horse that it took him a bit to recover. That and the entire field was looking to beat him.

IN all honesty, he was the best Baffert horse I've ever seen. That horse was a flat out specimen.

[SecretAgentMan]

Point Given was sitting 7th in perfect stalking position, he wasn't setting any kind of fractions. He was stalking perfectly. Racing luck is sometimes racing luck. '

PG's biggest problem in the Derby was he was such a big horse that it took him a bit to recover. That and the entire field was looking to beat him.

IN all honesty, he was the best Baffert horse I've ever seen. That horse was a flat out specimen.



Wasn't everyone out to beat AP & Chrome? I agree that Baffert best horse was Point Given, he was a monster & should have won the triple crown, but o couldn't play him in the KD, he seemed to have peaked too soon.

Of course Baffert will say AP was his best because he won the crown.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Wasn't everyone out to beat AP & Chrome? I agree that Baffert best horse was Point Given, he was a monster & should have won the triple crown, but o couldn't play him in the KD, he seemed to have peaked too soon.

Of course Baffert will say AP was his best because he won the crown.

Point Given won the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and Travers after the Kentucky Derby, so peaking too soon doesn't make any sense to me. He won the Belmont by 12 1/4 lengths.

Point Given was a bet against simply because his odds were too low for a 17 horse field.

[tanner12oz]

Fav is doing better because of the new point system.

Less sprinters, less chaotic flow. Less chaotic winners.

Especially the last 2 years.

wouldn't that also mean there's more viable winners with horses actually pointed in the right direction?

[EMD4ME]

wouldn't that also mean there's more viable winners with horses actually pointed in the right direction?

I would say so but I'm not looking to wager on a viable 3/1 shot in a 20 horse field :lol:

I'm looking for my next Monarchos at a good price. Not to bet the best horse at 3/1.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I would say so but I'm not looking to wager on a viable 3/1 shot in a 20 horse field :lol:

I'm looking for my next Monarchos at a good price. Not to bet the best horse at 3/1.

Still can't believe I didn't take Monarchos that day. :bang:

I was on AP Valentine and Congaree. Congaree probably ran the best that day for a hapless Show. :mad:

[EMD4ME]

Still can't believe I didn't take Monarchos that day. :bang:

I was on AP Valentine and Congaree. Congaree probably ran the best that day for a hapless Show. :mad:

No worries LDH. We've all been there. I'll never forget that zooming suck up move on the far turn. Chavez's body just sticks out on a horse. I remember hoping a bomb was 2nd and thankfully a bomb did get 2nd.

I was cursing that I didn't play tris.

But then again, there were times I never got a call or a thrill in the Derby :lol:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

No worries LDH. We've all been there. I'll never forget that zooming suck up move on the far turn. Chavez's body just sticks out on a horse. I remember hoping a bomb was 2nd and thankfully a bomb did get 2nd.

I was cursing that I didn't play tris.

But then again, there were times I never got a call or a thrill in the Derby :lol:

Ha!

My worst Derby ever was in 2006 when I thought Sweethnorthersaint was a virtual lock. I couldn't believe he went off as the favorite, and I certainly paid the price that day.

By the way, can we bring back horses like Balto Star, Sinister Minister, and Trinniberg to gobble up "sprinter's chance" money again?

[SecretAgentMan]

No worries LDH. We've all been there. I'll never forget that zooming suck up move on the far turn. Chavez's body just sticks out on a horse. I remember hoping a bomb was 2nd and thankfully a bomb did get 2nd.

I was cursing that I didn't play tris.

But then again, there were times I never got a call or a thrill in the Derby :lol:



Had a $100 exacta Monarchos with Congaree. Freaking long shot beat Congaree at the wire for 2nd by a nose. ButI had Monarchos big to win.

[SecretAgentMan]

Ha!

My worst Derby ever was in 2006 when I thought Sweethnorthersaint was a virtual lock. I couldn't believe he went off as the favorite, and I certainly paid the price that day.

By the way, can we bring back horses like Balto Star, Sinister Minister, and Trinniberg to gobble up "sprinter's chance" money again?


Lol, yup, those rabbits were awesome! How about the entry of multiples horses? They would always suck in public money. Everyone & their mother played they entry in Exactas & triples.

[burnsy]

Wasn't everyone out to beat AP & Chrome? I agree that Baffert best horse was Point Given, he was a monster & should have won the triple crown, but o couldn't play him in the KD, he seemed to have peaked too soon.

Of course Baffert will say AP was his best because he won the crown.

He didn't peak too soon, he didn't peak soon enough. By June there was not a horse in the land that could beat him (Point Given). Curlin was sort of the same way but he started late. Of the last three, AP was the only one that dominated through the season, Orb and Chrome kind of did not keep up with the top horses at the end of the season. The last 3 winners were favorites' but Orb paid 5-1. Its one of the reasons that future bet is so bad if you take chalk. The chalk is now usually 5-2 or better. People have become wary of over betting these favorites, there's tons more info and common sense out there now.

The point system does seem to have slowed the pace or flow. It seems to limit the "mad scramble" from the gate but if a speed horse or two does go fast it can lead to all kinds of different scenarios. Orb benefitted greatly from a deal like that but this used to be almost a yearly occurrence, not any more. There was a period from 1980 (Genuine Risk) - 2000 (Fu Peg) where no favorite won. But there were a few were 8-10 dollar horses during that period. Then after Fu Peg came Monarchos, War Emblem and Funny Cide all price horses. I think the favorite has a better chance at a good trip with the current system, but by no means is it a done deal with the distance and size of the field. More favorites will probably win but I would not "bank" that every year. Every race is essentially an entity of its own, even though people like us try to predict it......this changes like the weather and its really, really important to get the pace scenario right if weather is not a factor. Easier said than done in a Derby Race. That's why if you like the favorite, its better to do yourself a favor and at least have one or two others that you like and use them too. Essentially, that's how I play every race. Everyone knows who the chalk is.......Its always a question of "Who else you got?"

[SecretAgentMan]

Personally, I hope Nyquist beats Mohaymen in the Fla derby by a neck. Then both will bet heavy in.the KD. If Nyquist has a bad race, which I highly doubt, then he probably won't run in the KD.

I don't see a horse as of now that will be forwardly placed going around the first turn like Mohaymen this year, he's got the moves like past 2 years winners. Let's see his numbers in the Fla derby first, but as of now, I won't be playing him in the KD.

[tanner12oz]

Lol, yup, those rabbits were awesome! How about the entry of multiples horses? They would always suck in public money. Everyone & their mother played they entry in Exactas & triples.

Spanish chestnut