+++2016 Kentucky Derby Possible Winners+++

[SecretAgentMan]

Love this time of year, the weather is perfect, the prep races are getting down to the nitty gritty, & its time to buckle down & find a few horses that can, & will win the derby.

Will talk about some trends as well. As of now, these are the horses I'm looking at, & could & probably will add a few more to the list after watching the preps, & will eliminate a few as well. After watching Brody's Cause & Smokey Image get destroyed, all I can say is this is, these prep races show us the contenders from.the pretenders.



List of horses in no particular order of liking:


#1 Shagaf: Chad Brown the trainer & Ortiz rides him. Horses is 3 for 3 & pointing to the Wood Memorial. Going into the derby with only 4 starts will be tough, but it has been done, Big Brown did it with 3 starts, but Shagaf isn't Big Brown, so maybe that extra race will help.


#2 Gun Runner: Asmussen the trainer, Santana was the jockey until he faltered at CD in the slop. He's 3 for 4, his only loss 4th by 3 lengths after having the lead in the stretch. Makes me think he got tired on the sloppy track? He had lost that race being chased down by Mo Tom, but came back to beat Mo Tom in Louisiana after a 3 month layoff by 1 1/2 lengths. Mo Tom got into trouble in that race, but that part of the game, wait until there's 19 other horses in the race.


#3 Destin: trainer is Pletcher, horse is 3 for 5, his race at Louisiana wasnt good, it was his only bad race, & Leparoux rode him. When it comes to derby horses, trainers & owners should avoid Leparoux like the plague. He gives top notch horses terrible rides. It looks like Destin has awoken, & will possibly be racing in the Bluegrass, Wood or Arkansas, I guess Pletcher is waiting to see what Destin is doing during his workouts.


#4 Mo Tom: trainer Tom Amoss & jockey Corey Lanerie. This horse can't win 2 in a row. Will be very interesting to see how he pans out in the Louisiana derby in 2 weeks, he's also going up against Gun Runner.


#5 GreenPointCrusader: trainer Schettino, jockey Johnny V. This horse race 7th by 4 1/4 lengths to Nyquist last October in the Bredders Cup Juvenile. Didn't watch the race, so don't know if he got into trouble. Off the layoff, took the lead around the first turn but couldn't keep it as Mohaymen swept by to beat him by over 3 lengths. I want to watch his next race when he goes toe to toe with Gun Runner & Mo Tom. Louisiana derby should be a great race .


#6 Danzig Candy: trainer Clifford Sise, jockey Mike Smith. 3 for 3 at SA, 3 for 4 overall, with his only loss at Del Mar in his first race of career. Want to watch his SA derby race coming up in 3 weeks. Does he have War Emblem potential? We shall see!



These are the horses I'm looking to play in the KD. I will not play the favorite, especially after seeing a triple crown winner with the best trainer in a very long time, if not ever winning his 4th KD.

3 straight years of favorites as well since the point system started, call me a contrarian, but I don't see a Cali Chrome or AP in this years stock. Chromes year was mostly because the other horses were so bad, but Chrome also fit a lot of trends, etc...

Me fading AP last year wasn't good, because the talk from Baffert & others behind the scene was insane, like the horse couldn't lose, & Baffert stating it was the best horse he's ever seen, & I still tried to beat him, but I don't see that in this years stock.

Mohaymen is a good horse, & if he beats me, so be it. Maybe the breeding has gotten a ton better, hence the great horses past several years.

[SecretAgentMan]

If anyone has the list of horses that fit the Buckpasser angle, or the "large heart", x-chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud in the correct position for inheritance, please list the horses

12 of past 13 KD winners had the " large heart, x-chromosome" trait.

20 of past 33 derby winners trace their broodmare sire line back to Princequila, Nassrulah, Northern Dancer or Turn To.


Let's get down to business & get the KD winner.

[PowerUpPaynter]

If anyone has the list of horses that fit the Buckpasser angle, or the "large heart", x-chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud in the correct position for inheritance, please list the horses

12 of past 13 KD winners had the " large heart, x-chromosome" trait.

20 of past 33 derby winners trace their broodmare sire line back to Princequila, Nassrulah, Northern Dancer or Turn To.


Let's get down to business & get the KD winner.


Large heart??? First im hearing of this please explain... and where does one get this info?

Im liking Whitmore as a sleeper... at least to hit the board maybe and boost the exotic payouts seems like hes one of those horses to 'clunk up' as some have called it in the past

Cheers mate

[ReplayRandall]

I have OUTWORK, sired by Uncle Mo, trained by Todd Pletcher, who just finished 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby, as a future bet at 225-1:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1838325&postcount=3

[PowerUpPaynter]

I will toss out any horse from the Wood Memorial until one beats me. What a joke of a race that has turned out to be this millennium.

[SecretAgentMan]

I have OUTWORK, sired by Uncle Mo, trained by Todd Pletcher, who just finished 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby, as a future bet at 225-1:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1838325&postcount=3



I would bet those odds all day on that horse. He's gotta perform good in his next race tho to point him towards the derby.

[sbcaris]

Secret Agent Man: Here is a list of some of the horses that have raced well and actually may be on the Derby trail if they run a good race next month:

Zulu
Luna De Loco
Discreetness
Outwork
Nyquist
Mor Spirit
annual report
collected
swipe

If you are interested in any others just list them here and I will tell you whether or not they have Buckpasser in the X passing position

[SecretAgentMan]

I will toss out any horse from the Wood Memorial until one beats me. What a joke of a race that has turned out to be this millennium.




The Wood use to bring out a lot of derby winners, but its been a while tho. Go for Gin in 1994, Fusaichi Pegasus 2000, Monarchos 2001, Funny Cide 2003. So since 2004, the Wood has been.rotten! That's a 12 year dry run.

The hot tracks are Santa Anita & Florida derby, & Arkansas is right there as well.

[Huddy Goodjob]

"Oh geez...is it that time of year again?"

This is the question I'm asked by my wife every year around this time. I'm pumped this year...why?... because there is no TRUE standout in this year’s run up to the roses. Last year we saw many of the same horses winning the preps...this year, it’s a coin flip for which one will step up. Not to mention the string of derby favs going on to win as of late…Points System.

Gun Runner is on the top of my list. (pool 2 future wager- bet at 77-1, down to 25-1 at the close, Arrrgh!)

Mor Spirit- was against until his last. I re-watched last one and it still appears to me that Gary is just schooling him for the derby.

Mo Tom- may find trouble, but may also be learning from those troubled trips.

Suddenbreakingnews: Had my eye on Whitemore the whole time, was impressed by his move…but this horse can close, and fast.

Shagaf is intriguing as well. Dead fast track, no one closing all day…and this one came off the pace to win over the pace setter. Was impressed and similar to Orb in FL pulling off something similar.

Shhhhhh…but Adventist didn’t lose ground on Shgaf in that last…but was widest of all…only to loseby on 2. That run was sneaky good…




I’m a bris player, so those figs are important to me for the derby…

Off pace figs alone…Gun Runner stands out. Triple digit E1 and E2 figs in consecutive races…with increasing speed figs. Yes please. Got the pedigree too. Now just pop that 102 speed fig and we are good to go. (bullet work leading up to final prep)

Other stand outs with pace figs that stood out:

Danzing Candy

Destin

Exaggerator

Frank Coversation

Mohayman

Tip: Take last 2 preps…102+ bris speed fig matched with triple digit late pace fig= derby winners

[SecretAgentMan]

Secret Agent Man: Here is a list of some of the horses that have raced well and actually may be on the Derby trail if they run a good race next month:

Zulu
Luna De Loco
Discreetness
Outwork
Nyquist
Mor Spirit
annual report
collected
swipe

If you are interested in any others just list them here and I will tell you whether or not they have Buckpasser in the X passing position




Thanks Sbcaris!

I'm assuming the 6 horses I posted above don't fit?

[SecretAgentMan]

"Oh geez...is it that time of year again?"

This is the question I'm asked by my wife every year around this time. I'm pumped this year...why?... because there is no TRUE standout in this year’s run up to the roses. Last year we saw many of the same horses winning the preps...this year, it’s a coin flip for which one will step up. Not to mention the string of derby favs going on to win as of late…Points System.

Gun Runner is on the top of my list. (pool 2 future wager- bet at 77-1, down to 25-1 at the close, Arrrgh!)

Mor Spirit- was against until his last. I re-watched last one and it still appears to me that Gary is just schooling him for the derby.

Mo Tom- may find trouble, but may also be learning from those troubled trips.

Suddenbreakingnews: Had my eye on Whitemore the whole time, was impressed by his move…but this horse can close, and fast.

Shagaf is intriguing as well. Dead fast track, no one closing all day…and this one came off the pace to win over the pace setter. Was impressed and similar to Orb in FL pulling off something similar.

Shhhhhh…but Adventist didn’t lose ground on Shgaf in that last…but was widest of all…only to loseby on 2. That run was sneaky good…




I’m a bris player, so those figs are important to me for the derby…

Off pace figs alone…Gun Runner stands out. Triple digit E1 and E2 figs in consecutive races…with increasing speed figs. Yes please. Got the pedigree too. Now just pop that 102 speed fig and we are good to go. (bullet work leading up to final prep)

Other stand outs with pace figs that stood out:

Danzing Candy

Destin

Exaggerator

Frank Coversation

Mohayman

Tip: Take last 2 preps…102+ bris speed fig matched with triple digit late pace fig= derby winners



Huddy, good information. The last part where you do the figures to figures out who the possible derby winner is, if you don't mind, could you please do the math, etc...& post the horses after their final prep races? Thanks in advance!

[PowerUpPaynter]

gun runner... meh, dont excite me 1 bit


I question whether Mohaymen has even tried at all yet. Florida Derby hes going to have to so maybe we see the big beyer then but really it dont look like hes gone hard yet at all.

[sbcaris]

Secret Agent Man: These six do not carry Buckpasser in the X passing position: Shagaf, Gun Runner, Mo Tom, Destin, Greenpointcrusader, and Danzing candy.

However, one should note that my Buckpasser angle for the Derby ( although a very strong factor) in many years has NO qualifiers. For example: Last year none of the Derby runners had Buck in The X plus a fast final fraction in a 9 furlong prep race. The year before California Chrome carried Buck in the X and qualified on fast final fraction time. The year before that Orb carried Buck in the X and qualified on fast final fraction time. In 2010 Super Saver carried Buck in the X and qualified on fast final fraction time. In 2003 Funny Cide had Buck in the X. in 1998 Real quiet qualified, in 1990 Unbridled qualified etc.

The strength from the angle resides in its impact value--What percent of the runners carry Buck in the X and also run fast final fractions? The answer to that question is only 8%. What percent of the winners qualified on this factor? the answer is 31.6% (6 winners in 19 years when at least one derby runner qualified on this angle). The impact value is a strong 3.95. Horses with Buck in the X plus a fast final fraction at 9 furlongs are winning the roses nearly 4 times more often than statistical expectation.

If anyone is interested in reading an article that I wrote about this angle let me know your email address and I will send it to you free of charge.

[SecretAgentMan]

Thanks for all that information Sbcaris, really appreciate it!

[Huddy Goodjob]

What about...

ADVENTIST SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS FRANK CONVERSATION EXAGGERATOR

[f2tornado]

I would bet those odds all day on that horse. He's gotta perform good in his next race tho to point him towards the derby.

Outwork has a dosage index of 11.00. Would be the highest DI winner in history of Derby (Strike The Gold was 9.00). You also have to go back to 1988 to find a Nasrullah sire line winner. Perhaps this horse will be better suited for long sprints and miles. This causes me to at least question Destin's performance in the Tampa Derby despite the triple digit BSF and record time. I think both are solid plays against at 9F and certainly 10F. Nyquist pedigree similar to Outwork. DI of 7.00 (only 4 points... no Derby winner since 1943 w/4 or less) and Nasrullah line. Both have Buckpasser-x which is possibly why these horses are looking good to 8.5F. I'm skeptical they can carry that speed much longer than this.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Outwork has a dosage index of 11.00. Would be the highest DI winner in history of Derby (Strike The Gold was 9.00). You also have to go back to 1988 to find a Nasrullah sire line winner. Perhaps this horse will be better suited for long sprints and miles. This causes me to at least question Destin's performance in the Tampa Derby despite the triple digit BSF and record time. I think both are solid plays against at 9F and certainly 10F. Nyquist pedigree similar to Outwork. DI of 7.00 (only 4 points... no Derby winner since 1943 w/4 or less) and Nasrullah line. Both have Buckpasser-x which is possibly why these horses are looking good to 8.5F. I'm skeptical they can carry that speed much longer than this.

Orb and California Chrome go back to the Nasrullah line.

[ReplayRandall]

Outwork has a dosage index of 11.00. Would be the highest DI winner in history of Derby (Strike The Gold was 9.00). You also have to go back to 1988 to find a Nasrullah sire line winner. Perhaps this horse will be better suited for long sprints and miles. This causes me to at least question Destin's performance in the Tampa Derby despite the triple digit BSF and record time. I think both are solid plays against at 9F and certainly 10F. Nyquist pedigree similar to Outwork. DI of 7.00 (only 4 points... no Derby winner since 1943 w/4 or less) and Nasrullah line. Both have Buckpasser-x which is possibly why these horses are looking good to 8.5F. I'm skeptical they can carry that speed much longer than this.

F2T, go back to post #4 and click post link. Notate the date I first mentioned this horse, Outwork. I saw something special in this horse, along with Finnegan, who's still laid up....I rarely make these kind of comments.

[f2tornado]

Orb and California Chrome go back to the Nasrullah line.

Yes, but both via Bold Ruler. It seems as if Nasrullah not via Bold Ruler is not a strong Derby sire line.

[no breathalyzer]

i bet $20 on Forevamo at 70-1

[sbcaris]

Huddygoodjob: Adventist, Suddenbreakingnews, frank conversation, and exaggerator do NOT carry Buckpasser in the X passing position.

[SecretAgentMan]

Secret Agent Man: Here is a list of some of the horses that have raced well and actually may be on the Derby trail if they run a good race next month:

Zulu
Luna De Loco
Discreetness
Outwork
Nyquist
Mor Spirit
annual report
collected
swipe

If you are interested in any others just list them here and I will tell you whether or not they have Buckpasser in the X passing position




Of the list you typed above, Zulu is the only one that makes sense to me.

For instance, I like Mor Spirit, but don't see Baffert winning following the year he eon the triple crown. But Mor Spirit is definitely one of the most consistent horses in the derby, & if Baffert wins again, well, he's gonna go down as the best trainer ever! He's on the list already after AP's triple crown.

Nyquist is a solid horse but his dosage reeks. Real Quiet had a high dosage, & I was all over him because of Baffert was the hot trainer & Real Quiet was bout to peak. So don't know if Nyquist can get the distance, but think he already peaked, but will be watching the Florida derby in anticipation.

From your list, Zulu is the one I hope races well in his final race with nice fractions to give him the go. Nothing would be better for Pletcher than to get his 2nd KD win after seeing Baffert get his 4th & a triple crown.

[SecretAgentMan]

Only 2 horses in the past 98 years have won the KD with 4 career starts or less. Big Brown in 2008 with 3 starts & Animal Kingdom in 2011 with 4 starts, & neither ran a sprint race like Zulu or Outwork.

Lots of more angles coming!

[Huddy Goodjob]

I can see Baffert winning again, and right after looking over his shoulder to say-"It's just too easy".

He knows this race...and knows how to get a horse ready.

They have been teaching that horse in each of his races to have him ready to handle the race of his life in May.

[Huddy Goodjob]

I saw an angle about the Northern Dancer sire line...no derby winner carrying the ND sire line has won in...(long time)...amount of years or something. I can't remember where I saw it.

Anyone heard this one?

[f2tornado]

I saw an angle about the Northern Dancer sire line...no derby winner carrying the ND sire line has won in...(long time)...amount of years or something. I can't remember where I saw it.

Anyone heard this one?

The last one was Big Brown (2008) then Charismatic (1999), Sea Hero (1993), Ferdinand (1986). Raise A Native by far the best sire line the past few decades. Bold Ruler was hot in the 70's then was relatively quiet until past few years with Orb and Chrome.

[PowerUpPaynter]

if Nyquist cant beat Mohaymen in the Florida Derby he wont in the Kentucky Derby... However I can say that if he beats Mohaymen i can see Mohaymen beating him in Kentucky...

this obviously because of the Nyquist distance concerns Mohaymen looks like he can run all day, question is if he is fast enough which we have no idea truly how fast he can run because he hasnt really been pushed yet and usually being slowed toward the finish of his races

[sbcaris]

F2Tornado: Animal Kingdom, the 2011 Ky Derby winner carried the Nasrullah sire line (not going thru Bold Ruler). I still agree with your assessment in general. The Nasrullah sire line not going thru Bold Ruler has not been very good in generating Ky Derby winners.

A very interesting side note: Horses that have a dosage index of 4.00 to 5.65 that have run a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race (37 4/5 or less) have won way more than their expected share of Derbies. I think the impact value for such a horse is around 2.00. American Pharaoh fit this above rule and won the Triple Crown. A high DI (4.00 to 5.65) does not deter a horse from winning the roses if it runs a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong major prep race.

[PowerUpPaynter]

F2Tornado: Animal Kingdom, the 2011 Ky Derby winner carried the Nasrullah sire line (not going thru Bold Ruler). I still agree with your assessment in general. The Nasrullah sire line not going thru Bold Ruler has not been very good in generating Ky Derby winners.

A very interesting side note: Horses that have a dosage index of 4.00 to 5.65 that have run a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race (37 4/5 or less) have won way more than their expected share of Derbies. I think the impact value for such a horse is around 2.00. American Pharaoh fit this above rule and won the Triple Crown. A high DI (4.00 to 5.65) does not deter a horse from winning the roses if it runs a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong major prep race.


what does the dosage suggest about Mohaymen?

[f2tornado]

what does the dosage suggest about Mohaymen?

Mohaymen has this dosage line:
DP = 5-9-11-1-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69

I won't get into the gory details of the above but Mohaymen has 11 "Classic" points which is good and one "Solid" point which is extra good. His 26 total points is on par with the historical average of 31.

The long term trend line suggests the average Derby winner this decade will have a DI around 3.50. Mohaymen is right there at 3.00. CD stands for center of distribution where lower numbers suggest classic distance while higher numbers suggest a sprinter. Mohaymen at 0.69 is close to the long term trend line suggesting an average Derby winner this decade around 0.75.

Nutshell: Mohaymen satisfies the dosage angle. This has somewhat fallen out of favor but still relevant in my opinion. Roman came up with the "dual qualifier" concept to strengthen the dosage argument and Mohaymen satisfies that angle as well. This angle also falling out of favor but I believe it still has some use.

"Between 1973 and 2006 there have been 93 American classic races in which at least one DQ started. Of these, 53 (57.6%) were won by a DQ despite only 19.4% of the fields being comprised of DQs. The result is an Impact Value (IV) of 2.97" - Steven Roman

Thanks, Stanley, for the note on Animal Kingdom. Forgot about that one. Also another example of a Family 1 winner.

[sbcaris]

f2Tornado: The reason why the dual qualifier system is now out of favor is because in the last 20 years only 3 KY Derby winners fit the dual system:
Silver Charm in 1997, Street Sense in 2007 and Super Saver in 2010.

The impact value for this system over the last 20 years is probably less than 1.00 which makes it very weak over the last two decades.

[SecretAgentMan]

f2Tornado: The reason why the dual qualifier system is now out of favor is because in the last 20 years only 3 KY Derby winners fit the dual system:
Silver Charm in 1997, Street Sense in 2007 and Super Saver in 2010.

The impact value for this system over the last 20 years is probably less than 1.00 which makes it very weak over the last two decades.


Yeah, ever since the dual qualifying trend was followed by the public, it went down hill.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yes, but both via Bold Ruler. It seems as if Nasrullah not via Bold Ruler is not a strong Derby sire line.

Yeah AP Indy was about as deliberate of a resurrection mating as you could get. And it worked! The Uncle Mo's are looking good for Derby contenders though this year. Most of the Nasrullah's I'm looking at for influence are through the Grey Sovereign and Blushing Grooms for turf.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Since 1999(17 years) 10 Derby winners have come from the Raise A Native line. Only 2 direct through Maria's Mon. The other 8 through Mr Prospector. Nasrullah has 3 winners,2 going through Bold Ruler via AP Indy.2 Nearctics through Northern Dancer. 1 through Holy Bull or Rough N Tumble, famous for being Dr Fager's sire. The other was Barabaro through Dynaformer, the Turn-To or Royal Charger line.

[CincyHorseplayer]

How do you post links on here? I do the bloodlines on winners(and some marginal contenders)to root sires every year just out of habit. I don't have the browse option when you hit insert link to post them up through my documents. Just in case anybody want to see it anyway.

[SecretAgentMan]

How do you post links on here? I do the bloodlines on winners(and some marginal contenders)to root sires every year just out of habit. I don't have the browse option when you hit insert link to post them up through my documents. Just in case anybody want to see it anyway.



I just copy the URL page & paste it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I just copy the URL page & paste it.

IMG_20140304_0001

[CincyHorseplayer]

No dice. Not seeing a URL for a scanned document.

[SecretAgentMan]

What site are you going to to get this info if you don't mind sharing Cinci? Are you trying to copy & paste a document you've already downloaded?

[CincyHorseplayer]

What site are you going to to get this info if you don't mind sharing Cinci? Are you trying to copy & paste a document you've already downloaded?

No site. I do them by hand on a sheet with a very basic Excel outline and scan them to my documents for anybody that wants a peek. I have a website(non horseracing) and when you hit add attachments and hit browse it will go to your computer and you can retrieve it. This website doesn't have that so I'm not used to it.

[SecretAgentMan]

Oh, Ok. Yeah I can't help you there. Maybe someone that understands exactly what you're trying to do can help, thanks anyway.

[SecretAgentMan]

Which one will happen first, a horse wins the KD straight from LA derby, or the UAE derby?

I guess that long flight & quarantine from the UAE just puts too much on a horse. Horses use to run in the LA derby & then another race before the KD, but the LA derby was moved up, so now trainers go straight into the KD.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Which one will happen first, a horse wins the KD straight from LA derby, or the UAE derby?

I guess that long flight & quarantine from the UAE just puts too much on a horse. Horses use to run in the LA derby & then another race before the KD, but the LA derby was moved up, so now trainers go straight into the KD.


So weird they fly Frank Conversation from California to UAE...

[Stoleitbreezing]

So weird they fly Frank Conversation from California to UAE...

Not so weird. In 2013 Dice Flavor flew to Dubai after winning the El Camino Real Derby at 9.50-1. He proved no match for the local contingent and Ryan Moore and finished a well beaten 8th.

[SecretAgentMan]

So weird they fly Frank Conversation from California to UAE...



I hate the fact that trainers take a 3 yr old that is KD bound over to run in the UAE, & I got suckered into that last year playing Moob boob. Screw that crap!

[SecretAgentMan]

Gun Runner should come in 1st or 2nd in the LA Derby!

[SecretAgentMan]

Gun Runner should come in 1st or 2nd in the LA Derby!



Absolutely beautiful race by Gun Runner, 2 pretty races off the lay off! Mo Tom ran into trouble once again, what do you think will happen in the derby with 20 horses when Mo Tom tries to squeeze threw.

Gun Runner is my derby horse as of now unless Destin or Shagaf run spectacular & have me 2nd guessing my Gun Runner pick.

I have no interest in Mohaymen or Nyquist.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Anyone else think Mo Tom looks kinda skinny and maybe gets pushed around a little too easy?

[barahona44]

Anyone else think Mo Tom looks kinda skinny and maybe gets pushed around a little too easy?
I understand that around the paddock the other horses are taking his hay money before school starts. :)

[f2tornado]

That was slowest Louisiana Derby since going to a 9F race in 2010. Does not inspire much confidence a Derby winner will come from there. Dallas Stewart gets his usual goofball in Kentucky. Might as well bet ALL/Tom's Ready.

[SecretAgentMan]

That was slowest Louisiana Derby since going to a 9F race in 2010. Does not inspire much confidence a Derby winner will come from there. Dallas Stewart gets his usual goofball in Kentucky. Might as well bet ALL/Tom's Ready.



I've seen less inspiring times in.prep races before the derby & they won the derby. Its not always about who has the best times.

Animal Kingdom had a 1:52 in the Spiral. Orb a 1:50 in the Florida derby. We just had Chrome & AP rip off great times 2 years in a row in their preps, but 2016 is a different year.

I still want to see the Wood, Bluegrass & Ark derby. I could care less about the Florida derby!

[SecretAgentMan]

Florida derby is a match race, but I do think Mohaymen will beat Nyquist.

Mohaymen should be undefeated going into the KD. If so, he will be the big favorite on derby day. If Nyquist runs a good second, he will be 2nd choice.

I haven't seen the possible entrants for the Spiral yet, I'm assuming nothing spectacular will be running in there.

I hope Mor Spirit & Danzig Candy run super races in the SA derby, & run 1-2 to take money on KD day as well.

Destin should win his next race for Pletcher, which would make him 3 straight wins going into the KD. He's pointed to either the Wood or Bluegrass.

Shagaf is undefeated, 3 for 3, & will run in the Wood. I hope Shagaf doesn't run against Destin, want to see both Destin & Shagaf win their final prep races.

Cupid should beat the field in the Ark derby. His competitors are Whitmore & Suddenbreakingnews. Whitmore would be an interesting upset, but Cupid is clicking right now.

I don't see much competition in the Bluegrass if Pletcher decides to take Destin there.

[f2tornado]

Destin should win his next race for Pletcher, which would make him 3 straight wins going into the KD. He's pointed to either the Wood or Bluegrass.

I think that horse will be vulnerable at 9F. We also don't know if he's a horse for the Tampa course or something better. I'd probably take Zulu over him assuming both run same prep. Not a fan of the Storm Cat/Northern Dancer sire line either.

[SecretAgentMan]

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4


ML Odds

1 American Pioneer 50-1
2 Cherry Wine 20-1
3 Creator 30-1
4 Cupid 10-1
5 Danzing Candy 12-1
6 Dazzling Gem 50-1
7 Destin 12-1
8 Exaggerator 20-1
9 Flexibility 50-1
10 Gun Runner 15-1
11 Lani 50-1
12 Matt King Coal 50-1
13 Mo Tom 15-1
14 Mohaymen 7-2
15 Mor Spirit 12-1
16 Nyquist 8-1
17 Outwork 30-1
18 Shagaf 30-1
19 Suddenbreakingnews 30-1
20 Swipe 30-1
21 Tom's Ready 20-1
22 Whitmore 20-1
23 Zulu 30-1
24 mutuel field (all others) 10-1

[f2tornado]

I'll put $10 on Lani if he's close to the 50-1 ML. Dubai curse or not, breeding on that one is filthy good making for a reasonable recreation bet.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'll put $10 on Lani if he's close to the 50-1 ML. Dubai curse or not, breeding on that one is filthy good making for a reasonable recreation bet.



I'm gonna put $25 on him just bbecausei.played Mubtaahijlast year & would be pissed if he won.

Mo Tom should be 30-1 15-1 is a joke! I knew all the hype & excuses would bring low odds.

[Bennie]

Lots of questions on the futures pool for me. Like horses listed who have very few points and will be running in races against horses who are already far ahead in the point standings and will have to run their best just to finish in the money. Like Suddenbreaking to run in the Arkansas against the likes of Cupid, Destin and Whitmore and Flexibilty to run in the Wood or Bluegrass against the likes of Zulu, Outwork, Laoban and Shagaf. And why is Swipe still here? Has to come back and win a big race just to make it to the Derby
Weak field so far beyer wise as I believe only 3 horse have scored 100 and at least 3 have not even broken 90. Still time for a few to jump up in the next three weekends but from this pool, if they ran today, I could only use 4 horses tops.

[olddaddy]

Mo Tom should be 30-1 15-1 is a joke! I knew all the hype & excuses would bring low odds.


Same line as gun runner, which is crazy.

[SecretAgentMan]

Same line as gun runner, which is crazy.



Exactly!

[ultracapper]

If Nyquist finishes close to, or beats Mohaymen, you'll get better than 7/2 on Mohaymen on race day. That is a low future number with a prep still to go. On the other hand, if Nyquist proves to be legitimate competition for Mohaymen, that 8-1 in pool 4 will look rather juicy.

[f2tornado]

If Nyquist finishes close to, or beats Mohaymen, you'll get better than 7/2 on Mohaymen on race day. That is a low future number with a prep still to go. On the other hand, if Nyquist proves to be legitimate competition for Mohaymen, that 8-1 in pool 4 will look rather juicy.

The Future 4 odds are not fixed until the day after the FL Derby. Closing odds of the race winner will likely be lower than the ML and higher on the beaten one. No need to rush your Future wager. If you do like one or the other you might be better off first simply making a win or exacta bet in the FL Derby then parlaying your hopeful winnings into the Future. I'll probably make a minor $15 win bet on Mohaymen in the FL Derby if he's close to even money. If he wins then I can make a $30 win bet on him in the Future. If he tanks then a reasonable chance I would probably lose the $15 in the Future anyway.

[ultracapper]

The timing in closing the pool is everything then. Those numbers are almost useless if the FLA Derby results will ultimately influence them. I didn't realize that.

[SecretAgentMan]

The timing in closing the pool is everything then. Those numbers are almost useless if the FLA Derby results will ultimately influence them. I didn't realize that.



Looks like the tracks & casinos are gonna make money hand over fist since the bettors can bet Mohaymen or Nyquist after the Fla derby & if neither wins the KD.

If Mohaymen or Nyquist look spectacular this Saturday, the public will pound the winner in the futures pool.

[SecretAgentMan]

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-4




Here is the link for the updated odds on all pool 4 horses & exacta odds.

[SecretAgentMan]

Homebred horses have won the KD 8 of past 15 derby's, & 5 of past 6.

2004 Smarty Jones
2005 Giacomo
2007 Street Sense
2010 Super Saver
2011 Animal Kingdom
2013 Orb
2014 Chrome
2015 AP


All of these derby winners were homebred!


Will post which horses are homebred for the 2016 derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

Cherry Wine
Danzig Candy
Outwork
Shagaf
Fellowship




Just these 5 that I see.

[SecretAgentMan]

Does anyone think Gun Runner will be higher than 12-1 on derby day? I can get 12-1 right now.

[Mc990]

Does anyone think Gun Runner will be higher than 12-1 on derby day? I can get 12-1 right now.

Keep in mind this opinion is coming from someone who will likely have the horse on all his tickets. I love the way he's coming into the race and think he's sitting on an improvement... There is no chance he won't be higher than that derby day. He'll get lost in the shuffle with the 6 week break. Sheet players won't play to win (too slow). Beyer figs low. No obvious reasons for the once a year bettors to be on him.

I personally think he's too slow to win but he at least looks like he should bring his best race. Can't necessarily say that about many others yet...

[SecretAgentMan]

Keep in mind this opinion is coming from someone who will likely have the horse on all his tickets. I love the way he's coming into the race and think he's sitting on an improvement... There is no chance he won't be higher than that derby day. He'll get lost in the shuffle with the 6 week break. Sheet players won't play to win (too slow). Beyer figs low. No obvious reasons for the once a year bettors to be on him.

I personally think he's too slow to win but he at least looks like he should bring his best race. Can't necessarily say that about many others yet...



I think you're right about the odds on derby day being higher than 12-1. We still have 4 big prep races remaining, 3 run this coming Saturday.

Nyquist does have tactical speed just like Gun Runner. Nyquist is a good horse, & he may win, but I won't be playing him.

Is Mohaymen an average horse at best? Or is Nyquist that good after kicking his teeth in. O'Neil & Mario are a great team, but don't see them winning in the derby.

[Burls]

I think I'll try a TRI without Nyquist.
That's the only way to get a sizeable payout.
If he's in the money, he's in the money.

[SecretAgentMan]

My plays for April 9th:


Santa Anita derby: Mor Spirit to win & place

Wood: Shagaf to win & place

Bluegrass: your guess is as good as mine

[Huddy Goodjob]

Using the last 2 races only for my Derby handicapping.
Must have in 1 of last 2 preps:
102+ Bris Speed fig
100+ Late Pace (back to back 100+ LP = Board Hitter)
Speed not increase/decrease by more than 10 pts

*Gun Runner
104 Bris Speed (97, 2 back)
104 E2 fig
100 Late Pace (83, 2 back)
(Top Contender, Key Board Hit)

((((Nyquist does not qualify on this angle, his 103 Bris Speed was run in a 7fl sprint, posted a 103 LP in that race as well. I do not use sprints to cap the derby)))

[SecretAgentMan]

Using the last 2 races only for my Derby handicapping.
Must have in 1 of last 2 preps:
102+ Bris Speed fig
100+ Late Pace (back to back 100+ LP = Board Hitter)
Speed not increase/decrease by more than 10 pts

*Gun Runner
104 Bris Speed (97, 2 back)
104 E2 fig
100 Late Pace (83, 2 back)
(Top Contender, Key Board Hit)

((((Nyquist does not qualify on this angle, his 103 Bris Speed was run in a 7fl sprint, posted a 103 LP in that race as well. I do not use sprints to cap the derby)))



Good info Huddy, thanks! IMO, Gun Runner is gonna peak big time on derby day. I think he will be 13-1 or better on derby day.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Since were picking now I'll throw my BS into the ring along with yours!

I think Mohaymen bouncing to the moon is the greatest thing since sliced bread for a guy that likes to bet. Douchebags are making hardcore conclusions about the race and it's composition and minds are getting changed with each outcome like it's Revelations Judgement Day! Mor Spirit is my backup.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Good luck Cincy.

I'm still weeding out the pretenders.

[Huddy Goodjob]

I have a spreadsheet full of bits of Derby data I complete each year...I shared juat a few key elements.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Good luck Cincy.

I'm still weeding out the pretenders.


Thanks man. Me too!

[pele polo]

Since were picking now I'll throw my BS into the ring along with yours!

I think Mohaymen bouncing to the moon is the greatest thing since sliced bread for a guy that likes to bet. Douchebags are making hardcore conclusions about the race and it's composition and minds are getting changed with each outcome like it's Revelations Judgement Day! Mor Spirit is my backup.

I like that

[SecretAgentMan]

Since were picking now I'll throw my BS into the ring along with yours!

I think Mohaymen bouncing to the moon is the greatest thing since sliced bread for a guy that likes to bet. Douchebags are making hardcore conclusions about the race and it's composition and minds are getting changed with each outcome like it's Revelations Judgement Day! Mor Spirit is my backup.



Good luck with Mohaymen if you play him. A horse losing by almost 9 lengths in his prep race before the KD tells me he s gonna have a hard time getting 1 1/4

[SecretAgentMan]

As of now, I'm sticking with Gun Runner.

My long shot as of now is My Man Sam, liked the way he closed to get 2nd back to back races, & he came out of the 14th hole in the Bluegrass.

One offshore book has My Man Sam at 16-1 & I know I can get at least 20-1 on derby day on him.

Gun Runner is sitting at 12-1, should get that or higher on derby day.


Mohaymen is 10-1, Mor Spirit 8-1, & Nyquist at 7-2

[PowerUpPaynter]

As of now, I'm sticking with Gun Runner.

My long shot as of now is My Man Sam, liked the way he closed to get 2nd back to back races, & he came out of the 14th hole in the Bluegrass.

One offshore book has My Man Sam at 16-1 & I know I can get at least 20-1 on derby day on him.

Gun Runner is sitting at 12-1, should get that or higher on derby day.


Mohaymen is 10-1, Mor Spirit 8-1, & Nyquist at 7-2


Yup My Man Sam def can finish top 4

[SecretAgentMan]

Nyquist is 7 for 7, & Songbird is 7 for7, wouldn't it be wild if both were 8 for 8 going into the Preakness, that's if Songbird will be pointed towards the Preakness hoping both horses win the KD & KO.

Undefeated boy vs girl, its never happened to my knowledge where both horses were undefeated off the biggest races of their lives.

[Huddy Goodjob]

GR looks good per my numbers.

My Man Sam I got at 200-1 at the Wynn over a month ago.

Top 2 as of now...need to look at the numbers for others.

[SecretAgentMan]

GR looks good per my numbers.

My Man Sam I got at 200-1 at the Wynn over a month ago.

Top 2 as of now...need to look at the numbers for others.



I'm gonna play a triple, GR with MMS/ALL, GR with ALL/MMS

[Robert Fischer]

looks wide open

[SecretAgentMan]

looks wide open



I'm gonna put My Man Sam on top of several tickets as well, just in case its Mine That Bird or Giacomo time.

As for the other deep closers like Brody's Cause, he's a throw out for me. Don't like any horse from the Wood either.

[SecretAgentMan]

GR looks good per my numbers.

My Man Sam I got at 200-1 at the Wynn over a month ago.

Top 2 as of now...need to look at the numbers for others.



I would like to have $50 on MMS at 200-1. You have a live ticket there.


If the pace is too hot up front in the KD, does that hurt Gun Runner at all? I know he will be forwardly placed.

[Huddy Goodjob]

I would like to have $50 on MMS at 200-1. You have a live ticket there.


If the pace is too hot up front in the KD, does that hurt Gun Runner at all? I know he will be forwardly placed.

Unfortunately my ticket is 10% of that amount, but I’m live. This may be one of my better years for futures.

Gun Runner pool 1 @ 25-1 (bet him at 77-1, took money all closing day)

My Man Sam @ the Wynn 200-1

Adventist @ the Wynn 85-1

Dazzling Gem @ Wynn 125-1

Interested to see what Dazzling Gem does Saturday. I was hoping he would go the AK route.

I’m not disappointed in Adventist. He hated that track.

My Man Sam, well…I hope they make the move back to Ortiz. Feel he could have won that last one if the jock moved sooner.

As for Gun Runner, he is starting to remind me of Afleet Alex. That tactical speed, hit the gas he goes, let up, he idols, press on it and he give you another gear. Love that type.

With the long stretch of FG, he may have the wind to carry him if the pace is too hot, but like Afleet Alex, he may find himself passed late by closers.

[f2tornado]

Good luck with Mohaymen if you play him. A horse losing by almost 9 lengths in his prep race before the KD tells me he s gonna have a hard time getting 1 1/4

I generally agree but there have been exceptions. Go For Gin was spanked in the 1994 Florida Derby and had a nice bed of roses a month later. Sea Hero and Thunder Gulch tanked the Blue Grass. Mohaymen ran the best 8.5F prep I've seen this year. I'm assuming he had on off day last out and will be fresh for the Derby. I'm not hot on him anymore but won't toss.

[SecretAgentMan]

Unfortunately my ticket is 10% of that amount, but I’m live. This may be one of my better years for futures.

Gun Runner pool 1 @ 25-1 (bet him at 77-1, took money all closing day)

My Man Sam @ the Wynn 200-1

Adventist @ the Wynn 85-1

Dazzling Gem @ Wynn 125-1

Interested to see what Dazzling Gem does Saturday. I was hoping he would go the AK route.

I’m not disappointed in Adventist. He hated that track.

My Man Sam, well…I hope they make the move back to Ortiz. Feel he could have won that last one if the jock moved sooner.

As for Gun Runner, he is starting to remind me of Afleet Alex. That tactical speed, hit the gas he goes, let up, he idols, press on it and he give you another gear. Love that type.

With the long stretch of FG, he may have the wind to carry him if the pace is too hot, but like Afleet Alex, he may find himself passed late by closers.



I hate Leparoux, can't stand him as a jockey & my cousin pointed out he was on him Saturday. He gives top horses bad rides all the time. If Ortiz gets back on, MMS is very live.

Something about the FG track that gets the horses fit to run in the KD. Like you stated, GR has all the moves & gears to pull it off.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I generally agree but there have been exceptions. Go For Gin was spanked in the 1994 Florida Derby and had a nice bed of roses a month later. Sea Hero and Thunder Gulch tanked the Blue Grass. Mohaymen ran the best 8.5F prep I've seen this year. I'm assuming he had on off day last out and will be fresh for the Derby. I'm not hot on him anymore but won't toss.

Thank you. I felt like getting redneck when I saw that comment! Too many days betting at computer.

Anyway yes these rigid guidelines "oh he finished last prep in 39 it's over" don't perturb me one bit. When it comes to a horse who maybe struggled to get through non winners allowances then had maybe a minor stakes win or a few in money finishes in graded stakes I want to see another good race right before the derby. But a horse like Mohaymen who has proven his talents I'm not disturbed by him taking a bounce off a 10 foot diving board and hitting hard! Took some of the shine off the romance but not as a potential bet. I think he will be 4-1+ because of guys like Secret Agent Man seeing nothing but his last race. As you alluded to there are exceptions and Sea hero for example wasn't all that at the time of his derby.

The most important thing for me is I think the connections may have tried to do too much to keep him near the pace etc and not just run his race. No way of proving that but I believe his run may be part flop and part that. The most important thing is that he will just be allowed to settle and make one big run. He's not a plodder so this means probably mid pack. That happens this horse can unfurl some damage IMO and I will put my money where my mouth is.

[SecretAgentMan]

I generally agree but there have been exceptions. Go For Gin was spanked in the 1994 Florida Derby and had a nice bed of roses a month later. Sea Hero and Thunder Gulch tanked the Blue Grass. Mohaymen ran the best 8.5F prep I've seen this year. I'm assuming he had on off day last out and will be fresh for the Derby. I'm not hot on him anymore but won't toss.



If Mohaymen wins the KD, it wouldn't shock me, but would throw a wrench in my capping. He came in 4th by almost 9 lengths. None of the horses you've mentioned lost by more than 5 lengths.

I know the game is changing, & eventually every trend will be broken. Unless the jockey was told to make a move top of the stretch & then hold him back to keep him ready to go in the KD,, can't figure out why he just faded away.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If Mohaymen wins the KD, it wouldn't shock me, but would throw a wrench in my capping. He came in 4th by almost 9 lengths. None of the horses you've mentioned lost by more than 5 lengths.

I know the game is changing, & eventually every trend will be broken. Unless the jockey was told to make a move top of the stretch & then hold him back to keep him ready to go in the KD,, can't figure out why he just faded away.

Above average horses who were undefeated coming in, getting 1 loss, and bouncing back is not a new trend defying the laws of old! :D

[Mc990]

If Mohaymen wins the KD, it wouldn't shock me, but would throw a wrench in my capping. He came in 4th by almost 9 lengths. None of the horses you've mentioned lost by more than 5 lengths.

I know the game is changing, & eventually every trend will be broken. Unless the jockey was told to make a move top of the stretch & then hold him back to keep him ready to go in the KD,, can't figure out why he just faded away.

IMO the quantifiable reason he faded was the ground loss. We can also speculate he may have not liked the off track...

[f2tornado]

Mohaymen was winning with hand rides. His competition was questionable but I can say the same about Nyquist, Gun Runner, Destin, and many others. I felt the horse had an off day like AP in the Travrs last year. Sick, tired, track condition, whatever. He did not look the same. If he tanks the Derby then so be it but might be a live play at 8-1 or more. I've got enough Future bets on him so I can focus on others. I'll happily take the only Raise A Native to run a fast final 3/8th and that is Exaggerator. I'll use Moaymen too. I get the feeling Nyquist is Holy Bull Junior.

[SecretAgentMan]

Mohaymen was winning with hand rides. His competition was questionable but I can say the same about Nyquist, Gun Runner, Destin, and many others. I felt the horse had an off day like AP in the Travrs last year. Sick, tired, track condition, whatever. He did not look the same. If he tanks the Derby then so be it but might be a live play at 8-1 or more. I've got enough Future bets on him so I can focus on others. I'll happily take the only Raise A Native to run a fast final 3/8th and that is Exaggerator. I'll use Moaymen too. I get the feeling Nyquist is Holy Bull Junior.



Just have a feeling these hyped up horses this year won't do jack, Exxagerator does peak my interest way more than Nyquist & Mohaymen.

I want to see how Whitmore handles Cupid & the Ark derby. I would like to see Whitmore come in 2nd or win the race.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Just have a feeling these hyped up horses this year won't do jack, Exxagerator does peak my interest way more than Nyquist & Mohaymen.

I want to see how Whitmore handles Cupid & the Ark derby. I would like to see Whitmore come in 2nd or win the race.

I'm hoping you are right Secretagentman. It's been kind of anticlimactic the last 2 years IMO. You watch these horses when they start being wheeled out in earnest in mid summer then get to derby day and get 5/2 and last year's merry go round. 2011 and 2013 were fun!

[f2tornado]

I'm hoping you are right Secretagentman. It's been kind of anticlimactic the last 2 years IMO. You watch these horses when they start being wheeled out in earnest in mid summer then get to derby day and get 5/2 and last year's merry go round. 2011 and 2013 were fun!

The last two years were actually easier to wager however. You had a likely winner to single on top. I learned from 2013 and 2014 if you have a logical favorite then wheel it over about 10 horses in the tri, pass go, collect $1000. I tried that last year with AP but got the chalk. Unfortunately or fortunately depending on your perspective, there is not that easy Chrome or AP key this year. If you are all in on one horse then the strategy above makes for a very strong wager.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm hoping you are right Secretagentman. It's been kind of anticlimactic the last 2 years IMO. You watch these horses when they start being wheeled out in earnest in mid summer then get to derby day and get 5/2 and last year's merry go round. 2011 and 2013 were fun!



Last year the top 3 were the top 3 favs of the race. I talked myself out of playing AP & into playing a UAE derby winner, lol!

If the favorite Nyquist wins, I hope Songbird kicks him in the teeth in the Preakness.

I like Gun Runner, but for some reason I think we will see a long shot like Giacomo. I will have all the possible longshots that look like decent closers boxed in an exacta with Gun Runner.

Gonna also play some will Tris & supers with a few longshots on top like My Man Sam.

The Ark derby is the last of the gem preps. Racing should change the points in the Lexington & make it 20 points to the winner, that way it would attract better horses.

[SecretAgentMan]

The last two years were actually easier to wager however. You had a likely winner to single on top. I learned from 2013 and 2014 if you have a logical favorite then wheel it over about 10 horses in the tri, pass go, collect $1000. I tried that last year with AP but got the chalk. Unfortunately or fortunately depending on your perspective, there is not that easy Chrome or AP key this year. If you are all in on one horse then the strategy above makes for a very strong wager.



Tornado, let us know how you play your triples when the time comes. I know this year is a bit difficult for everyone.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm sure these odds will differ from Churchill w/o a doubt.


Nyquist 4-1
Mohaymen 10-1
Mor Spirit 8-1
Cupid 8-1
Exxagerator 9-1
Brody's Cause 12-1
Destin 10-1 (was 20-1 last week)
My Man Sam 12-1 (can't figure out why he's so low in odds, wise guy horse?)
Gun Runner 14-1
Whitmore 14-1
Lani 18-1
Mo Tom 18-1
Shagaf 25-1
Outwork 25-1
Fellowship 25-1
Majesto 45-1
Trojan Nation 54-1

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'm sure these odds will differ from Churchill w/o a doubt.


Nyquist 4-1
Mohaymen 10-1
Mor Spirit 8-1
Cupid 8-1
Exxagerator 9-1
Brody's Cause 12-1
Destin 10-1 (was 20-1 last week)
My Man Sam 12-1 (can't figure out why he's so low in odds, wise guy horse?)
Gun Runner 14-1
Whitmore 14-1
Lani 18-1
Mo Tom 18-1
Shagaf 25-1
Outwork 25-1
Fellowship 25-1
Majesto 45-1
Trojan Nation 54-1

6 horses at 10/1 or less. :D 10 horses at 14/1 or less. :lol:

This book has to be making cash hand over fist.

[SecretAgentMan]

6 horses at 10/1 or less. :D 10 horses at 14/1 or less. :lol:

This book has to be making cash hand over fist.




Yeah, freaking crazy low odds on some.

My Man Sam should be 25-1 on derby day.

A few others are way low also. Gun Runer is exactly where he should be tho.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Do you have an update to this list, with others now surfacing who may make the gate?

[SecretAgentMan]

Do you have an update to this list, with others now surfacing who may make the gate?



The rest are:


Danzig Candy 45-1
Oscar Nominated 53-1
Toms Ready 53-1
Majesto 46-1
Adventist 46-1
Dazzling Gem 86-1
Cherry Wine 73-1
SuddenBreakingNews 46-1
Creator 76-1
Descreetness 153-1



I think all these on this list are scrubs & have no shot if winning the derby.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Huddy, good information. The last part where you do the figures to figures out who the possible derby winner is, if you don't mind, could you please do the math, etc...& post the horses after their final prep races? Thanks in advance!

Our top contender is solid. May send it all in on him if I get 15-1 or better.

Play a small super- Key GR top and the Wood runners 4th.

The Cali horses look good to fill 2nd and 3rd.

Not done with the numbers but that's where I'm leaning.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Secret Agent Man: Here is a list of some of the horses that have raced well and actually may be on the Derby trail if they run a good race next month:

Zulu
Luna De Loco
Discreetness
Outwork
Nyquist
Mor Spirit
annual report
collected
swipe

If you are interested in any others just list them here and I will tell you whether or not they have Buckpasser in the X passing position

Do you have an update to this list?

[SecretAgentMan]

When do updated past performances come out for the top 25 point standings leaders?

[f2tornado]

When do updated past performances come out for the top 25 point standings leaders?

Wish I knew. We do have the Future wager PPs which includes everything through the end of March.
Future4 PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Derby16FW4.pdf)

[SecretAgentMan]

Wish I knew. We do have the Future wager PPs which includes everything through the end of March.
Future4 PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Derby16FW4.pdf)



I already have these, thanks tho. I'm assuming the updated PP will be out a week after the Ark derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

Arkansas derby:



(Whitmore) is the horse I'm gonna root for in this race. I think he can either get 1st or 2nd place. I want to watch & see if he can run down Cupid in the stretch.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The rest are:


Danzig Candy 45-1
Oscar Nominated 53-1
Toms Ready 53-1
Majesto 46-1
Adventist 46-1
Dazzling Gem 86-1
Cherry Wine 73-1
SuddenBreakingNews 46-1
Creator 76-1
Descreetness 153-1



I think all these on this list are scrubs & have no shot if winning the derby.

Creator at 76-1 is awfully interesting if you can lock him in at that price.

[SecretAgentMan]

Creator at 76-1 is awfully interesting if you can lock him in at that price.



He's 35th in the point standings but can improve this weekend I assume.

If he can beat out Cupid & Whitmore, I will be very surprised, but he is trained by Asmussen.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

He's 35th in the point standings but can improve this weekend I assume.

If he can beat out Cupid & Whitmore, I will be very surprised, but he is trained by Asmussen.

I'm foreseeing a pretty quick pace in the Arkansas Derby with Cupid coming out of the 10 hole. Gettysburg draws the far outside and will need to put on the early motor, and then you have Dazzling Gem, and Unbridled Outlaw that aren't going to give Cupid the early lead on his inside.

Asmussen also has another entry in Luna de Loco directly to Cupid's inside who I would not be surprised in the least if they sent him to press the pace. Gray Sky out of the 11 hole may well send as well and Discreetness undoubtedly needs to get involved earlier coming out of the 1 hole and will almost have to be on or near the lead if he can.

Creator gets a great post out of the 3 hole to lay back and pounce late along with Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore. American Pioneer with Bejarano on board is pretty interesting as well at an 8/1 ML. He could get the perfect setup for first run on the early speed. Be interesting in how his odds bounce during the tote process.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm foreseeing a pretty quick pace in the Arkansas Derby with Cupid coming out of the 10 hole. Gettysburg draws the far outside and will need to put on the early motor, and then you have Dazzling Gem, and Unbridled Outlaw that aren't going to give Cupid the early lead on his inside.

Asmussen also has another entry in Luna de Loco directly to Cupid's inside who I would not be surprised in the least if they sent him to press the pace. Gray Sky out of the 11 hole may well send as well and Discreetness undoubtedly needs to get involved earlier coming out of the 1 hole and will almost have to be on or near the lead if he can.

Creator gets a great post out of the 3 hole to lay back and pounce late along with Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore. American Pioneer with Bejarano on board is pretty interesting as well at an 8/1 ML. He could get the perfect setup for first run on the early speed. Be interesting in how his odds bounce during the tote process.



Nice breakdown of the race LDH. I would like to see a closer win this race.

I think there will be a lot of speed in the KD.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Nice breakdown of the race LDH. I would like to see a closer win this race.

I think there will be a lot of speed in the KD.

Cupid doesn't need the lead to win...I was surprised that he went wire to wire last time...Cupid looked like he'd run 2nd when Whitmore engaged him, but then something "magic" happened that I can't explain...Cupid will need to get first run on the leaders in the Arkansas Derby, keep ahead slightly of both Creator and Whitmore...I'm betting the "magic" continues...and Cupid wins!

[SecretAgentMan]

Cupid doesn't need the lead to win...I was surprised that he went wire to wire last time...Cupid looked like he'd run 2nd when Whitmore engaged him, but then something "magic" happened that I can't explain...Cupid will need to get first run on the leaders in the Arkansas Derby, keep ahead slightly of both Creator and Whitmore...I'm betting the "magic" continues...and Cupid wins!



Baffert owns the Rebel but not the Ark derby. I believe he's something like 2 for 6, still decent. AP & Bodemeoster are his winners.

Cupid may win the Ark derby, but he will not win the KD. I wish I could wager on which horses won't win the KD.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cupid doesn't need the lead to win...I was surprised that he went wire to wire last time...Cupid looked like he'd run 2nd when Whitmore engaged him, but then something "magic" happened that I can't explain...Cupid will need to get first run on the leaders in the Arkansas Derby, keep ahead slightly of both Creator and Whitmore...I'm betting the "magic" continues...and Cupid wins!

That "Magic" is a a :50+ half til the last 16th!

[VigorsTheGrey]

That "Magic" is a a :50+ half til the last 16th!

19Mar16OP¨ Rebel-G2 22 4/5 46 4/5 1:12 1:43 4/5


Where was the 50+ half ??

[CincyHorseplayer]

19Mar16OP¨ Rebel-G2 22 4/5 46 4/5 1:12 1:43 4/5


Where was the 50+ half ??

From the half mile to the mile mark he ran 50.8.

Then he "Magically" kicked it in for the last 16th! :D

That won't be allowed which is why I view him with a grain of salt. Most of the attention to his last race was the running style and the positives the first quarter and last 16th,but he was loose by the half mile and coasted through that next 50.8

[Lemon Drop Husker]

From the half mile to the mile mark he ran 50.8.

Then he "Magically" kicked it in for the last 16th! :D

That won't be allowed which is why I view him with a grain of salt. Most of the attention to his last race was the running style and the positives the first quarter and last 16th,but he was loose by the half mile and coasted through that next 50.8

Bingo.

Cupid will see much better front end speed as opposed to Siding Spring and Madtap this time around. He likely won't have the lead either and won't be getting any 4F breathers on Saturday. Post position isn't in his favor either. Lots of other speed entries in here that simply aren't going to gift him the lead, much less a walk for 4F mid-race.

Let us also not forget that trainers and owners would like nothing more than to beat a favored Baffert colt in the Arkansas Derby.

Cupid could end up winning from a stalking position, but he'll have to do it against non-Maidens this time over 9F. 2 things he has never done before.

[SecretAgentMan]

Was reading why Pletcher didn't run Destin again after Tampa. He's a biever in the "sheets" & the numbers pointed to a bounce his next race after Tampa. But an 8 week layoff & never running 1 1/8 & going into the derby is not good.

Destin has a few knocks against him angle wise going into the KD.

I do believe Pletcher will win another derby within next couple years, but will it be this year?

Will Pletcher send Outwork out early to battle the speed & have Destin close?

I'm ready for the Ark derby to be over already so we can get the KD early past performances & get down to business.

[Huddy Goodjob]

What about these?

Trojan Nation
My Man Sam
Majesto
Lani
Oscar Nominated
Cherry Wine
Laoban
Dazzling Gem
Creator

[SecretAgentMan]

What about these?

Trojan Nation
My Man Sam
Majesto
Lani
Oscar Nominated
Cherry Wine
Laoban
Dazzling Gem
Creator



Huddy, I'm not scared of Lani, Laoban or Dazzling Gem, IMO, these 3 won't win the KD. I want to see Ramsey pay $200k to enter Oscar Nominated.

One of these years, a UAE derby winner will win, but it won't be when I have money on them, because I'm done playing UAE horses.

My Man Sam IMO is the only live horse you have on.the list. Trojan Nation is well bred, but I'm not scared at all of him.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Huddy, I'm not scared of Lani, Laoban or Dazzling Gem, IMO, these 3 won't win the KD. I want to see Ramsey pay $200k to enter Oscar Nominated.

One of these years, a UAE derby winner will win, but it won't be when I have money on them, because I'm done playing UAE horses.

My Man Sam IMO is the only live horse you have on.the list. Trojan Nation is well bred, but I'm not scared at all of him.

Thanks for the comment SAM.

I'm not really looking at any of these...I guess the quote didn't pop, I was sending that to sbcaris to get feed back on the Buckpasser X.

I like MMS a lot...and as you know GR is my top. Still trying to fill in the slots.

Nyquist looks strong on the Buckpasser angle. I'm really curious about MMS.

[SecretAgentMan]

Thanks for the comment SAM.

I'm not really looking at any of these...I guess the quote didn't pop, I was sending that to sbcaris to get feed back on the Buckpasser X.

I like MMS a lot...and as you know GR is my top. Still trying to fill in the slots.

Nyquist looks strong on the Buckpasser angle. I'm really curious about MMS.



As of now, my top is also Gun Runner, with MMS 2nd & 3rd in triples & supers. Gotta figure out several other horses for Tris & Supers. I'm thinking Oscar Nominated, Cherry Wine, Whitmore & Mo Tom.

[f2tornado]

I'm really curious about MMS.

I didn't see Buckpasser-x on MMS. He does have fast fractions and conduit mare Cherokee Rose in tail female. Huge impact value over the years when a horse has fast fractions and one of of the conduit mares. Brody's Cause another that fits this angle (Bill and Coo).

[SecretAgentMan]

(Danzig Candy) will run in the KD May 7th. I'm starting to see quite a few horses that want to set the pace on derby, will we see a Palice Malice type first half mile? I think we will see a blazing pace possibly & the closer will be licking his chops.

[tanner12oz]

(Danzig Candy) will run in the KD May 7th. I'm starting to see quite a few horses that want to set the pace on derby, will we see a Palice Malice type first half mile? I think we will see a blazing pace possibly & the closer will be licking his chops.

I hope so..the closer derbys are more exciting then the just off the pace runs if the past few years

[Lemon Drop Husker]

He's 35th in the point standings but can improve this weekend I assume.

If he can beat out Cupid & Whitmore, I will be very surprised, but he is trained by Asmussen.

Did you send it in on Creator at 76/1?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Did you send it in on Creator at 76/1?

Man I had a meaty exacta with Creator today via Whitmore. Was sick when SBN blew by!

[SecretAgentMan]

Did you send it in on Creator at 76/1?



Nope, I wish I had! I should have put $20 on him. Asmussen has 2 decent paying horses running for the roses.

[f2tornado]

Nope, I wish I had! I should have put $20 on him. Asmussen has 2 decent paying horses running for the roses.

He's got fresh batteries in the zapper this year. Kind of a slow race though.

[SecretAgentMan]

He's got fresh batteries in the zapper this year. Kind of a slow race though.



Tell you the truth, I don't like much from the Ark derby. Maybe SBN in the super. I gotta study Creator a bit more, because I'm playing Asmussens other horse, GR, & would be pissed if Creator wins the roses.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Tell you the truth, I don't like much from the Ark derby. Maybe SBN in the super. I gotta study Creator a bit more, because I'm playing Asmussens other horse, GR, & would be pissed if Creator wins the roses.

Don't let him beat you twice.

[SecretAgentMan]

Don't let him beat you twice.



No doubt, I already played Gun Runner offshore at 12-1 & 14-1. He might be higher on derby day tho, maybe not, who knows. But I will stick GR, MMS & Creator on top of triples & supers.

But gotta wait to see the post positions, hoping all 3 get a post position #3 to #13. MMS can probably run from any post outside. Even a #20 post probably wouldn't bother him at 1 1/4 mile. Creator & GR IMO would benefit from post #3 to #13.

Now the waiting game & watching workouts & then 2.5 until the post draw.

[SecretAgentMan]

Creator received a 96 beyer.

[Huddy Goodjob]

100 Bris speed for Creator.

Only few accomplished a 100+ Bris speed in last.

[SecretAgentMan]

100 Bris speed for Creator.

Only few accomplished a 100+ Bris speed in last.



Yeah, my top horse is still Gun Runner.

[Secondbest]

Creator got a -57 pf from Dr.Roman which is the highest of any gr1 prep this year.And 2nd only to Danzing Candy in the San Felipe -59.

[SecretAgentMan]

Creator got a -57 pf from Dr.Roman which is the highest of any gr1 prep this year.And 2nd only to Danzing Candy in the San Felipe -59.



Interesting big number for a closer. I know Big Brown, AP & Chrome received big numbers, but you could tell they were great horses.

[davew]

For those feeling Cupid is the best from CA, Cupid had it rough again yesterday - was pinched back at the start, and then had rear pushed sideways, all before the first turn.

[SecretAgentMan]

For those feeling Cupid is the best from CA, Cupid had it rough again yesterday - was pinched back at the start, and then had rear pushed sideways, all before the first turn.



Between Cupid & Mo Tom, they can't get a out of trouble. If the jockey & trainer hasn't figured out how to keep the horse out of trouble by his last prep race, its not gonna happen in the KD

[SecretAgentMan]

Anyone have the latest past performances for the KD? Does brisnet have any out yet? I'm assuming they will be out within a week or so.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Anyone have the latest past performances for the KD? Does brisnet have any out yet? I'm assuming they will be out within a week or so.

Check out Downey Profile. He posts the Bris PPs. Yesterday results not included yet.

[SecretAgentMan]

Check out Downey Profile. He posts the Bris PPs. Yesterday results not included yet.



Thanks a lot Huddy!

[SecretAgentMan]

Does anyone remember an undefeated favorite going into the KD & never breaking a beyer of 100 like Nyquist?

I'm trying to figure out if he's like Bodemeister, but there's no chance. Bode reeled off 101, 101 & 108 beyers race before the KD, & his times were phenomenal. Nyquist is 7 for 7 & looks cheap compared to other past horses reeling off huge beyers Nyquist can't seem to even get close to.

IMO, if Nyquist wins this years derby, he does because the other horses are very bad. Nyquist just doesn't look the part of a beast like Chrome or AP going into the derby.

I might throw him underneath in an exacta & a few triples, but that's it.

[SecretAgentMan]

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURES - APR 18


2016 KENTUCKY DERBY

NYQUIST +385
MOHAYMEN +1045
MOR SPIRIT +1045
DESTIN +1045
CUPID +1615
BRODYS CAUSE +1021
EXAGGERATOR +785
OUTWORK +3099
DANZING CANDY +4250
OSCAR NOMINATED +6050
SHAGAF +2850
MO TOM +2277
TOMS READY +6050
MAJESTO +4250
FELLOWSHIP +6050
ADVENTIST +8550
TROJAN NATION +5250
MY MAN SAM +1215
LAOBAN +12550
WHITMORE +2277
GUN RUNNER +1426
LANI +2277
CHERRY WINE +12550
DAZZLING GEM +15250
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS +2250
CREATOR +1615

[SecretAgentMan]

I don't understand why My Man Sam is only 12-1

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Does anyone remember an undefeated favorite going into the KD & never breaking a beyer of 100 like Nyquist?

I'm trying to figure out if he's like Bodemeister, but there's no chance. Bode reeled off 101, 101 & 108 beyers race before the KD, & his times were phenomenal. Nyquist is 7 for 7 & looks cheap compared to other past horses reeling off huge beyers Nyquist can't seem to even get close to.

IMO, if Nyquist wins this years derby, he does because the other horses are very bad. Nyquist just doesn't look the part of a beast like Chrome or AP going into the derby.

I might throw him underneath in an exacta & a few triples, but that's it.

It seems like no one in this race really improved greatly in-form between last year to this year. I don't like Nyquist to win; given the small illness he had plus the way he swayed a bit in the stretch in his last race. I agree with all points, plus the betting strategy you are implementing.

I am still trying to figure out Lani and where I can find results charts at the point of call for his previous race(s) to see if maybe he is better than what we have now.

[SecretAgentMan]

It seems like no one in this race really improved greatly in-form between last year to this year. I don't like Nyquist to win; given the small illness he had plus the way he swayed a bit in the stretch in his last race. I agree with all points, plus the betting strategy you are implementing.

I am still trying to figure out Lani and where I can find results charts at the point of call for his previous race(s) to see if maybe he is better than what we have now.



I gotta put $20 on Lani on principle alone. I bet Mubby last year, so hence a play on Lani just in case.

[davew]

Does anyone remember an undefeated favorite going into the KD & never breaking a beyer of 100 like Nyquist?

I'm trying to figure out if he's like Bodemeister, but there's no chance. Bode reeled off 101, 101 & 108 beyers race before the KD, & his times were phenomenal. Nyquist is 7 for 7 & looks cheap compared to other past horses reeling off huge beyers Nyquist can't seem to even get close to.

IMO, if Nyquist wins this years derby, he does because the other horses are very bad. Nyquist just doesn't look the part of a beast like Chrome or AP going into the derby.

I might throw him underneath in an exacta & a few triples, but that's it.

The great horses have burst of speed that put the others away, they do not need to set course records or win by 20 lengths.

[SecretAgentMan]

The great horses have burst of speed that put the others away, they do not need to set course records or win by 20 lengths.



You're right, Nyquist has four G1 wins & two G2 wins, that's insanely good, but I can't wrap my mind around him winning the KD. His numbers don't resemble the cream of the crop of past years. An undefeated horse that's 7 for 7 & not cracking a beyer of 100 after winning 6 graded stakes races is insanity in my mind.

Something just doesn't feel right about him.

[PowerUpPaynter]

You're right, Nyquist has four G1 wins & two G2 wins, that's insanely good, but I can't wrap my mind around him winning the KD. His numbers don't resemble the cream of the crop of past years. An undefeated horse that's 7 for 7 & not cracking a beyer of 100 after winning 6 graded stakes races is insanity in my mind.

Something just doesn't feel right about him.


Maybe question the beyers. I see that as a flawed system that is in its tail end of relevance. Not that I'm sating nyquist is a world beater by any means.

[SecretAgentMan]

Maybe question the beyers. I see that as a flawed system that is in its tail end of relevance. Not that I'm sating nyquist is a world beater by any means.




Could be, but I don't see beyer figures ever leaving the drf

[f2tornado]

You're right, Nyquist has four G1 wins & two G2 wins, that's insanely good, but I can't wrap my mind around him winning the KD. His numbers don't resemble the cream of the crop of past years. An undefeated horse that's 7 for 7 & not cracking a beyer of 100 after winning 6 graded stakes races is insanity in my mind.

Something just doesn't feel right about him.

Agree but then I ask how many of these have a triple digit BSF? Two or three? It's gotta be the most BSF impaired crop in history. The 9F prep times back this up. Slow. I will have a saver bet on Nyquist only because the competition is lacking. I'm guessing Beyer himself will take Exaggerator which has been the kiss of death but even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while.

[SecretAgentMan]

Agree but then I ask how many of these have a triple digit BSF? Two or three? It's gotta be the most BSF impaired crop in history. The 9F prep times back this up. Slow. I will have a saver bet on Nyquist only because the competition is lacking. I'm guessing Beyer himself will take Exaggerator which has been the kiss of death but even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while.




What speed figs do you use to help you? There's quite a few, Timeforms, beyer, Tomlinson, etc.

[SecretAgentMan]

IMO, the winner of this years KD will run a beyer of 100 to 105.

[f2tornado]

What speed figs do you use to help you? There's quite a few, Timeforms, beyer, Tomlinson, etc.

I use everything but particularly like Brisnet pace figures. I'll be looking for a solid mid pace figure from the winner this year. Tomlinson numbers can occasionally identify a bomber for distance or condition but I use sparingly. I don't know what to think of Beyer numbers anymore. There is an obvious downward trend and the four Derby winners previous to Chrome did not achieve a 100+ in final 9F prep. Only a few winners in the past 15 or so years had a top 2 BSF. Based on this knowledge I would not factor them high in my handicapping but I won't ignore them either. I believe every Derby winner since 2003 was 8th best or better on BSF in 9F prep. This includes Mine That Bird. That's a quick way to toss 12 horses from the win slot.

[SecretAgentMan]

I use everything but particularly like Brisnet pace figures. I'll be looking for a solid mid pace figure from the winner this year. Tomlinson numbers can occasionally identify a bomber for distance or condition but I use sparingly. I don't know what to think of Beyer numbers anymore. There is an obvious downward trend and the four Derby winners previous to Chrome did not achieve a 100+ in final 9F prep. Only a few winners in the past 15 or so years had a top 2 BSF. Based on this knowledge I would not factor them high in my handicapping but I won't ignore them either. I believe every Derby winner since 2003 was 8th best or better on BSF in 9F prep. This includes Mine That Bird. That's a quick way to toss 12 horses from the win slot.



Thanks for the tidbit on the BSF.

[SecretAgentMan]

19 days left until the derby! Let's hope for sunny days leading up to the derby & a beautiful day on May 7th.

Cupid is out, Mo Tom squeezed in. I have a hard time wanting to put him underneath in the exotics because of how many times he gets into trouble, & in a 20 horse field, watch out!

The post draw will make a big difference for some horses. The deep closers won't mind coming from post #15 they #20. No trainer wants their horse coming out of post #1 or #2. Unless you have Big Brown speed, you don't want post #20.

[SecretAgentMan]

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY - MAY 7


NYQUIST +400
MOHAYMEN +626
MOR SPIRIT +1084
DESTIN +1084
BRODYS CAUSE +1040
EXAGGERATOR +797
OUTWORK +2736
DANZING CANDY +4100
OSCAR NOMINATED +6050
SHAGAF +2994
MO TOM +2370
TOMS READY +5636
MAJESTO +3857
FELLOWSHIP +6050
ADVENTIST +8550
TROJAN NATION +5250
MY MAN SAM +1244
LAOBAN +12550
WHITMORE +2370
GUN RUNNER +1464
LANI +2370
CHERRY WINE +9568
DAZZLING GEM +15250
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS +2339
CREATOR +1562

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Wow.

Cherry Wine at 95/1 while Trojan Nation is 52/1?

Danzing Candy 41/1?

[EMD4ME]

Wow.

Cherry Wine at 95/1 while Trojan Nation is 52/1?

Danzing Candy 41/1?

I'd take Adventist at 85/1 today. Sign me UP!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'd take Adventist at 85/1 today. Sign me UP!

Saw that too.

Some crazy odds on some horses that were coming forward in their 9F preps.

[SecretAgentMan]

Yeah, some if those odds are crazy!

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm looking at these 10 horses for underneath:



My Man Sam
Mo Tom
SuddenBreakingNews
Mor Spirit
Whitmore
Oscar Nominated
Majesto
Nyquist
Mohaymen
Shagaf (like the least)


I gotta shorten this list down to 6 to 8 horses.

[reckless]

Good luck SAM. There will be a bomb or two, I am sure too.

[Huddy Goodjob]

I'm looking at these 10 horses for underneath:



My Man Sam
Mo Tom
SuddenBreakingNews
Mor Spirit
Whitmore
Oscar Nominated
Majesto
Nyquist
Mohaymen
Shagaf (like the least)


I gotta shorten this list down to 6 to 8 horses.

Once Fellowship gets in I'll be set for my bomb super:
MMS/Fellowship/GR/Nyq

[SecretAgentMan]

Good luck SAM. There will be a bomb or two, I am sure too.




I'm sure you're right. Just gotta figure out which 6 to 8 I want to put underneath in my triples, quite a few longshots in my list.

Good luck to you as well Reckless!

[SecretAgentMan]

Once Fellowship gets in I'll be set for my bomb super:
MMS/Fellowship/GR/Nyq



Who do you think gets scratched for Fellowship to get in? I guess your boxing 4 horses?

[Huddy Goodjob]

Who do you think gets scratched for Fellowship to get in? I guess your boxing 4 horses?

I'm not sure who comes out, Destin...

This is a straight super, the bombs away.

I don't see how 2 off the pace horses come 1/2, I don't see a hot pace. But if this super comes in, boom!

I do think MMS will be up closer than we expect. If u watch the way he was tugging in the BG, and IOJ back on him...and recognizing the pace senerio, most who were in the back of the pack in last will most likely be closer.

Danzing Candy won't be lose like last time...but will be in the lead with a good post. He could steal it...his jock knows how to stretch speed. Oxbox Preakness.

I'm working with the pace right now but until they draw I am at a stand still.

Little speed doesn't bode well for closers.

This is looking more and more like it will set up for GR.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm not sure who comes out, Destin...

This is a straight super, the bombs away.

I don't see how 2 off the pace horses come 1/2, I don't see a hot pace. But if this super comes in, boom!

I do think MMS will be up closer than we expect. If u watch the way he was tugging in the BG, and IOJ back on him...and recognizing the pace senerio, most who were in the back of the pack in last will most likely be closer.

Danzing Candy won't be lose like last time...but will be in the lead with a good post. He could steal it...his jock knows how to stretch speed. Oxbox Preakness.

I'm working with the pace right now but until they draw I am at a stand still.

Little speed doesn't bode well for closers.

This is looking more and more like it will set up for GR.



I can't believe MMS is 12-1 offshore, that's nuts! He should be at least 25-1

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I can't believe MMS is 12-1 offshore, that's nuts! He should be at least 25-1

Looks and sounds like MMS will be this year's "Wise Guy" horse.

He beat Cherry Wine by a head last out. He is 12/1, Cherry Wine is 95/1.

[SecretAgentMan]

Looks and sounds like MMS will be this year's "Wise Guy" horse.

He beat Cherry Wine by a head last out. He is 12/1, Cherry Wine is 95/1.




Yeah, huge discrepancy in odds between those two. I was thinking the same thing, MMS might be the wise guy horse.

Forgot Cherry Wine is in 25th place & can't get in unless several horses scratch, that's why he's 95-1

[yankeelpn]

Who is riding Mo Tom, Lanerie? If it is isnt he also on Brodys Cause.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I'm looking at these 10 horses for underneath:



My Man Sam
Mo Tom
SuddenBreakingNews
Mor Spirit
Whitmore
Oscar Nominated
Majesto
Nyquist
Mohaymen
Shagaf (like the least)


I gotta shorten this list down to 6 to 8 horses.


Id cut Oscar Nominated (never raced on dirt) and Shagaf (slow)

[SecretAgentMan]

Id cut Oscar Nominated (never raced on dirt) and Shagaf (slow)



I think you're right, Shagaf is a throwout & so is the turf horse Oscar. Gotta throw out one more & stick in Creator.

[SecretAgentMan]

Post draw 13 days away, derby 16 days away. I do we contain ourselves, lol!

Espinoza will try & do what no jockey has ever done, win 3 straight derby's.

Leparoux has taken the mount on Oscar Nominated, & knowing how terrible he is on derby horses, he's a complete toss.

[SecretAgentMan]

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY -



NYQUIST +400
MOHAYMEN +705
MOR SPIRIT +1015
DESTIN +1086
BRODYS CAUSE +1042
EXAGGERATOR +800
OUTWORK +2746
DANZING CANDY +4050
OSCAR NOMINATED +6050
SHAGAF +3005
MO TOM +2377
TOMS READY +5636
MAJESTO +3550
FELLOWSHIP +6050
ADVENTIST +8550
TROJAN NATION +5250
MY MAN SAM +1246
LAOBAN +12550
WHITMORE +2257
GUN RUNNER +1467
LANI +2550
CHERRY WINE +9568
DAZZLING GEM +15250
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS +2550
CREATOR +1615

[SecretAgentMan]

Over the last ten years the average has been 4.3 weeks, with 5 weeks off being the most common with 4 winners.

5. Barbaro

3. Street Sense

5. Big Brown

5. Mine That Bird

3. Super Saver

6. Animal Kingdom

4. I'll Have Another

5. Orb

4. California Chrome

3. American Pharoah

[bks]

40-1 on Danzing Candy in a race with little pace is crazy. He had one bad race in the slop when he went way too fast. So now he's 40-1?

I'm buying some of that.

As I keep saying, the CA horses are dominant. Three also-ran maidens (Laoban, One More Round and Trojan Nation) have made this clear. Why ignore it?

Nyquist, Exaggerator, or Danzing Candy are the likeliest winners. Bet accordingly.

[SecretAgentMan]

40-1 on Danzing Candy in a race with little pace is crazy. He had one bad race in the slop when he went way too fast. So now he's 40-1?

I'm buying some of that.

As I keep saying, the CA horses are dominant. Three also-ran maidens (Laoban, One More Round and Trojan Nation) have made this clear. Why ignore it?

Nyquist, Exaggerator, or Danzing Candy are the likeliest winners. Bet accordingly.



If I was a book, I would give a 3-1 entry on Nyquist, Danzig & Exaggerator winning the KD, &I would clean house, because most bettors would bet that entry, & none of the three will win, jmo tho.

[SecretAgentMan]

Who's the best bred horse in the KD? Is it Outwork or Lani?

[Bennie]

Neither one but of the two Lani is better bred for the distance

[SecretAgentMan]

Neither one but of the two Lani is better bred for the distance




I meant to type Oscar Nominated & Lani?

I don't know why I was thinking of Outwork. My cousin told me Oscar is bred better.

[dballard125]

I just think this field is going to have a hard time beating Nyquist.

According to Trakus:

- Exaggerator's finish in the SA Derby wasn't nearly as impressive as it looked visually.

- Destin's finish in the TB Derby is indicative of a horse that will struggle to get 1 1/4 miles.

- Mohaymen is approximately 2 mph slower than Nyquist, in terms of top end speed, when comparing all of their lifetime efforts.

- Lani is approximately 2 mph slower than Nyquist, in terms of top end speed, and his final 1/8 of a mile in the UAE was slower than Nyquist's final 1/8 in the Florida Derby.

I dont have Trakus figures on Gun Runner but his final time in his final prep was slow.

I just don't see where an upset comes from in this field. Maybe one of the closers, if we get a hot pace? But it doesn't look like there's a lot of speed in here and Nyquist is very good at settling in and rating. So I'm not sure one of the closers (SBN, MMS, Creator, etc) will be able to get to him in time.

If Nyquist draws anywhere between 3-17, I think he's going to be a tough out. I'm one that's not necessarily looking forward to another favorite winning the KD, but it sure looks like that's where we headed again this year, to me.

[SecretAgentMan]

I just think this field is going to have a hard time beating Nyquist.

According to Trakus:

- Exaggerator's finish in the SA Derby wasn't nearly as impressive as it looked visually.

- Destin's finish in the TB Derby is indicative of a horse that will struggle to get 1 1/4 miles.

- Mohaymen is approximately 2 mph slower than Nyquist, in terms of top end speed, when comparing all of their lifetime efforts.

- Lani is approximately 2 mph slower than Nyquist, in terms of top end speed, and his final 1/8 of a mile in the UAE was slower than Nyquist's final 1/8 in the Florida Derby.

I dont have Trakus figures on Gun Runner but his final time in his final prep was slow.

I just don't see where an upset comes from in this field. Maybe one of the closers, if we get a hot pace? But it doesn't look like there's a lot of speed in here and Nyquist is very good at settling in and rating. So I'm not sure one of the closers (SBN, MMS, Creator, etc) will be able to get to him in time.

If Nyquist draws anywhere between 3-17, I think he's going to be a tough out. I'm one that's not necessarily looking forward to another favorite winning the KD, but it sure looks like that's where we headed again this year, to me.



Nyquist is a good horse, & is undefeated 7 for 7, but I'm not buying into him just yet. If he wins the derby, I lose money. I will have him underneath tho.

[dballard125]

You're right, Nyquist has four G1 wins & two G2 wins, that's insanely good, but I can't wrap my mind around him winning the KD. His numbers don't resemble the cream of the crop of past years. An undefeated horse that's 7 for 7 & not cracking a beyer of 100 after winning 6 graded stakes races is insanity in my mind.

Something just doesn't feel right about him.

According to Trakus, he's the fastest horse in the field. So many different speed figures out there now, it's hard to know which one to use. I personally feel that Beyers are becoming outdated, but that's just me. I don't think it gets more accurate than Trakus, in terms of straight data.

[SecretAgentMan]

According to Trakus, he's the fastest horse in the field. So many different speed figures out there now, it's hard to know which one to use. I personally feel that Beyers are becoming outdated, but that's just me. I don't think it gets more accurate than Trakus, in terms of straight data.



His daddy Uncle Mo had decent final times in his preps but got scratched. He actually had the best times out of the rest of the derby starters.

Maybe Nyquist gets scratched to because of a rise on his white count, but I doubt it. Imo, Uncle Mo wasn't gonna win that race anyway, but we will never know.

[bks]

If I was a book, I would give a 3-1 entry on Nyquist, Danzig & Exaggerator winning the KD, &I would clean house, because most bettors would bet that entry, & none of the three will win, jmo tho.

JMO too, obviously. I'm from the east coast. But CA horses have dominated three of the last four Derbies. They're even more dominant-seeming this time.

How do you account for the performance of the CA-based maidens in New York and Kentucky, if not by concluding that CA is vastly superior in horseflesh talent?

I see the Derby being a parade: Nyquist and DC up close, with a reasonable pace, and very few contenders able to challenge from behind.

And if the race doesn't go that way and falls apart, I'd rather have Exaggerator than any other closer.

[SecretAgentMan]

JMO too, obviously. I'm from the east coast. But CA horses have dominated three of the last four Derbies. They're even more dominant-seeming this time.

How do you account for the performance of the CA-based maidens in New York and Kentucky, if not by concluding that CA is vastly superior in horseflesh talent?

I see the Derby being a parade: Nyquist and DC up close, with a reasonable pace, and very few contenders able to challenge from behind.

And if the race doesn't go that way and falls apart, I'd rather have Exaggerator than any other closer.



You may get your wish on Exxagerator, because I saw the derby forecast, & they're calling for possible rain. So that favors Exxagerator & Brody

[SecretAgentMan]

Steven Asmussen, Rachel Alexandra & Zenyatta are in the Hall of Fame!

Now Asmussen will need Gun Runner or Creator to fulfill his dream of winning the KD.

[SecretAgentMan]

"Gun Runner was the first to appear under Florent Geroux, entering the racetrack near the five-eighths pole and moving off the right way immediately. He loped around to the front side with his workmate Gold Hawk and a stable pony, breaking off at the five-eighths pole to breeze to the seven-eighths, just after the wire. The pair began in unison with Gun Runner on the outside, marking splits of :12 2/5, :24 3/5 and :36 2/5 before the head of the lane. At that point, Gun Runner began to separate himself from his workmate, tugging hard on the bridle. After a half-mile in :48 1/5, Gun Runner crossed the wire five or six lengths in front of Gold Hawk in a split of :59 4/5, finishing his six-furlong work in 1:12 1/5. The chestnut son of Candy Ride galloped out strongly in 1:25 and 1:39."



Creator came onto the track at the same point with jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., but jogged backward to the wire with a second stable pony and his workmate Hundred Years. The pair turned around to gallop at the sixteenth pole, easing off slowly until the pony let loose just after the wire. Breaking off to work, Creator stayed with his workmate on the outside until just before the wire, easing through splits of :12 3/5, :25, :37 3/5 and :49 3/5 before finishing up in 1:02 2/5. The gray son of Tapit was timed in 1:15 1/5 and 1:28 4/5 for the gallop out, which he completed easily several lengths in front of a slowing workmate.

[f2tornado]

I just think this field is going to have a hard time beating Nyquist.

According to Trakus:

- Exaggerator's finish in the SA Derby wasn't nearly as impressive as it looked visually.

- Mohaymen is approximately 2 mph slower than Nyquist, in terms of top end speed, when comparing all of their lifetime efforts.

I just don't see where an upset comes from in this field. Maybe one of the closers, if we get a hot pace? But it doesn't look like there's a lot of speed in here and Nyquist is very good at settling in and rating. So I'm not sure one of the closers (SBN, MMS, Creator, etc) will be able to get to him in time.

If Nyquist draws anywhere between 3-17, I think he's going to be a tough out. I'm one that's not necessarily looking forward to another favorite winning the KD, but it sure looks like that's where we headed again this year, to me.

First lets consider that 2 mph. That is 16F per hour, 0.26F per minute, and 0.004F per second which is roughly 0.5F over two minutes. Nyquist hasn't beat anybody by a half panel. Now consider Nyquest has ran in 4 sprints and 3 routes versus Mohaymen's 1 sprint and 5 routes. Hmm? Of course the sprinter du jour is going to be faster.

When we look at Exaggerator, his final 3/8th at 9F was pretty much identical to Nyquist. Sure, the finish looked better since the leaders were slowing down but it was still a very fast finish.

Nyquist has to lug that 7.00 dosage another panel in Kentucky. Nyquist is my saver bet only. Even Stevie Wonder can easily see a potential upset here.

[SecretAgentMan]

My list as of now is:


Gun Runner to win

Whitmore, Oscar Nominated, & Nyquist as my underneath plays for sure, gonna add 5 more underneath.


8 days until the post draw!

[SecretAgentMan]

A local show on Saturday mornings called "Down The Stretch". During this past weekend's show, the host interviewed Dallas Stewart, who has Tom's Ready in the Kentucky Derby. For what it's worth, Dallas Stewart believes Gun Runner is the horse to beat in the Derby.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

My list as of now is:


Gun Runner to win

Whitmore, Oscar Nominated, & Nyquist as my underneath plays for sure, gonna add 5 more underneath.


8 days until the post draw!

Love it.

Haven't seen a post draw, haven't seen a PP, but you are locked in!

[SecretAgentMan]

Copied & pasted from another site:


Year-by-year, old and outdated axioms seem to be falling by the wayside in quick succession. If you don’t know what meaningful tips and trends to look for, you are bound to base your Derby theories on the wrong side of history, such as any of the following rules that were meant to be broken . . .

The dosage theory was all the rage in the 1990’s, but that has gone down in flames miserably ever since, and has become the source of many past articles by yours truly exposing this fraud “system.”

They said a filly couldn’t win the Derby until two fillies won the race in the decade of the 1980’s (more recently Eight Belles hit the exacta in 2008).

They said a gelding couldn’t win until Funny Cide blew that theory out of the water in 2003, along with the belief that a New York bred couldn’t win, either.

The wise guys said a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner couldn’t win the Derby because it hadn’t been done it in 23 years until Street Sense came along and put that theory to rest in 2007.

The wise guys also said a horse couldn’t win the Derby coming into the race with a layoff of five weeks or more, but that one went down in flames, too, starting when Barbaro won in 2006.

Those were probably the same wise guys who told us that Big Brown couldn’t win in 2008 because he was making only his fourth career start in the Derby, meaning he didn’t have enough “seasoning” since it had been 93 years since a horse had won the Kentucky Derby in only his fourth career race.

Speaking of Big Brown, some people also said he couldn’t win because he drew post 20, but the reality is that the outside posts are actually good, so they were wrong that year and then wrong again in 2012 when I’ll Have Another drew post 19 and still won the race.

At one point people even believed a favorite could never win the Derby again because such a long period of time had passed after Spectacular Bid scored as the chalk in 1979. If that one wasn’t put to rest by Fusaichi Pegasus in 2001, it has since been proven to be a dead and buried angle by subsequent winning favorites Smarty Jones, Street Sense, and Big Brown. Orb was even the favorite in 2013, despite going off at over 5-1 odds and paying $12.80 to win, California Chrome in 2014 at 5-2 & triple crown winner American Pharaoh at 5-2 in 2015.

[dballard125]

Copied & pasted from another site:


Year-by-year, old and outdated axioms seem to be falling by the wayside in quick succession. If you don’t know what meaningful tips and trends to look for, you are bound to base your Derby theories on the wrong side of history, such as any of the following rules that were meant to be broken . . .

The dosage theory was all the rage in the 1990’s, but that has gone down in flames miserably ever since, and has become the source of many past articles by yours truly exposing this fraud “system.”

They said a filly couldn’t win the Derby until two fillies won the race in the decade of the 1980’s (more recently Eight Belles hit the exacta in 2008).

They said a gelding couldn’t win until Funny Cide blew that theory out of the water in 2003, along with the belief that a New York bred couldn’t win, either.

The wise guys said a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner couldn’t win the Derby because it hadn’t been done it in 23 years until Street Sense came along and put that theory to rest in 2007.

The wise guys also said a horse couldn’t win the Derby coming into the race with a layoff of five weeks or more, but that one went down in flames, too, starting when Barbaro won in 2006.

Those were probably the same wise guys who told us that Big Brown couldn’t win in 2008 because he was making only his fourth career start in the Derby, meaning he didn’t have enough “seasoning” since it had been 93 years since a horse had won the Kentucky Derby in only his fourth career race.

Speaking of Big Brown, some people also said he couldn’t win because he drew post 20, but the reality is that the outside posts are actually good, so they were wrong that year and then wrong again in 2012 when I’ll Have Another drew post 19 and still won the race.

At one point people even believed a favorite could never win the Derby again because such a long period of time had passed after Spectacular Bid scored as the chalk in 1979. If that one wasn’t put to rest by Fusaichi Pegasus in 2001, it has since been proven to be a dead and buried angle by subsequent winning favorites Smarty Jones, Street Sense, and Big Brown. Orb was even the favorite in 2013, despite going off at over 5-1 odds and paying $12.80 to win, California Chrome in 2014 at 5-2 & triple crown winner American Pharaoh at 5-2 in 2015.

Agree. But how often? How many geldings have won in 142 tries? How many maidens? How many fillies? How many from Post 1? How many with a DI higher than 4? How many from the Louisiana Derby? How many that didn't break their maiden as a 2 yr old? And the list goes on?

Sure trends are broken, but percentages are created, and used for handicapping, for a reason.

[Huddy Goodjob]

My list as of now is:


Gun Runner to win

Whitmore, Oscar Nominated, & Nyquist as my underneath plays for sure, gonna add 5 more underneath.


8 days until the post draw!

Bris downgraded GR's last race speed fig from 104 to 100. Wtf!

[SecretAgentMan]

Agree. But how often? How many geldings have won in 142 tries? How many maidens? How many fillies? How many from Post 1? How many with a DI higher than 4? How many from the Louisiana Derby? How many that didn't break their maiden as a 2 yr old? And the list goes on?

Sure trends are broken, but percentages are created, and used for handicapping, for a reason.



The point is, every trend will be broken in time. And thing is, every year we will have one broken. If I could bet that a horse that hasn't raced as a 2 year old will win the derby by 2020, I would bet it if I received good odds, because I think it will be broken by then.

Am I confident in Gun Runner breaking several trends this year in winning the derby? Yes I am, will it happen, we shall see.

[SecretAgentMan]

Bris downgraded GR's last race speed fig from 104 to 100. Wtf!



Yeah, I seen that, but it doesn't bother me. I've seen beyer lower his numbers as well on horses after their last prep races, didn't happen a lot, but has happened.

[SecretAgentMan]

Extended forecast calls for sunny days on May 5th, 6th & 7th!

[dballard125]

Extended forecast calls for sunny days on May 5th, 6th & 7th!

It's always a beautiful day here in Louisville ;)

[Huddy Goodjob]

My list as of now is:


Gun Runner to win

Whitmore, Oscar Nominated, & Nyquist as my underneath plays for sure, gonna add 5 more underneath.


8 days until the post draw!

GR,EX

Creator
My Man
Sudden
Oscar

Mor Sp
Nyq

LS to incl on tickets
Danzing
Tom's R
Majesto
Lani

I may be best off just tri boxing all who ran fast closing 1/8 in last.
Creat, My Man, Sudden, Oscar, Nyq, Majesto ($60)

[SecretAgentMan]

GR,EX

Creator
My Man
Sudden
Oscar

Mor Sp
Nyq

LS to incl on tickets
Danzing
Tom's R
Majesto
Lani

I may be best off just tri boxing all who ran fast closing 1/8 in last.
Creat, My Man, Sudden, Oscar, Nyq, Majesto ($60)



I like Creator also, gonna put him in my underneath 8 horses. Gonna add Trojan Nation as well. Need 3 more.

[Huddy Goodjob]

I like Creator also, gonna put him in my underneath 8 horses. Gonna add Trojan Nation as well. Need 3 more.

Mojesto has been looking good on track per Byk.

Think I'll find a place to fit him in.

[SecretAgentMan]

Mojesto has been looking good on track per Byk.

Think I'll find a place to fit him in.




Yes, he came in 2nd to Nyquist, but everyone is saying he did it by default.

With the forecast looking to be sunny several days before & on derby day, won't Danzig Candy run better than in the slop? Makes me think Outwork & Nyquist will fight him a long way, paving the way for the further back stalkers & mid pack horses.

Think I will wait for the post draw to pick my final 3 horses underneath.

[tanner12oz]

There's so little separating the underneath horses. Its a challenge to confidently dump anymore then a handful.imo

[SecretAgentMan]

There's so little separating the underneath horses. Its a challenge to confidently dump anymore then a handful.imo



I know, its frustrating!

[SecretAgentMan]

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY -


NYQUIST +404
MOHAYMEN +715
MOR SPIRIT +1085
DESTIN +1177
BRODYS CAUSE +1136
EXAGGERATOR +710
OUTWORK +2115
DANZING CANDY +4050
OSCAR NOMINATED +6050
SHAGAF +3166
MO TOM +1833
TOMS READY +5636
MAJESTO +3773
FELLOWSHIP +6050
TROJAN NATION +5250
MY MAN SAM +1275
WHITMORE +2348
GUN RUNNER +1493
LANI +2666
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS +2166
CREATOR +1262

[SecretAgentMan]

Since 1985, only 5 Derby winners won a G1 Race at 2........American Pharoah, Sea Hero, Spend a Buck, Real Quiet and Street Sense.



This year, Nyquist and Brody's Cause fit that angle & are throwouts for the win spot!

[SecretAgentMan]

Over past 32 years, horses who ran 1st or 2nd in their final prep at odds of 7-1 or higher are 1 for 101 in the KY Derby.

This year go against these for the win spot:

Creator
Oscar Nominated

[Huddy Goodjob]

Over past 32 years, horses who ran 1st or 2nd in their final prep at odds of 7-1 or higher are 1 for 101 in the KY Derby.

This year go against these for the win spot:

Creator
Oscar Nominated

Be careful picking up data from that other form, those peps are notorious for planting misinformation to trip people up. They admitted directly to me. Personally since then, fact or not I discount any data they give.

[SecretAgentMan]

Be careful picking up data from that other form, those peps are notorious for planting misinformation to trip people up. They admitted directly to me. Personally since then, fact or not I discount any data they give.



Are you serious? I did get them.from another forum, butsoe I have posted that are mine, or have been around for a while.

The ones they posted make sense tho. Might look into them if I have time. I think everyone picks these angles up from others.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Yes, I have been verbally attacked by one person specificly from that forum because of the Derby grid I posted that used data that she willing and freely posted there. I figured everyone on these forums were friendly and it was like a family...not ego driven, competitive, bunch of bullies. But that aside I take what that person says with a grain of salt because I don't know what to trust. 2 of the main posters in that site admiting they posted fake data to catch people selling their information. I'm not here for profit, in here sharing a passion for the sport.

Anyway, I used to value all the information I gained from that forum, now...don't see it the same.

I like it here much better, although there are some who come with negativity, overall good group of posters.

Go Gun Runner!

[SecretAgentMan]

Yes, I have been verbally attacked by one person specificly from that forum because of the Derby grid I posted that used data that she willing and freely posted there. I figured everyone on these forums were friendly and it was like a family...not ego driven, competitive, bunch of bullies. But that aside I take what that person says with a grain of salt because I don't know what to trust. 2 of the main posters in that site admiting they posted fake data to catch people selling their information. I'm not here for profit, in here sharing a passion for the sport.

Anyway, I used to value all the information I gained from that forum, now...don't see it the same.

I like it here much better, although there are some who come with negativity, overall good group of posters.

Go Gun Runner!



Thanks for the heads up, I will have to watch what I copy & paste from that site from now on. I remember 2 years ago they had an angle that made no sense, so I researched it & they were way off, but I just thought someone made a mistake. We all make mistakes, but it was way off.

Yes, I prefer this forum to the others as well, seems we have more knowledgeable horse players on this site, although I'm only interested in the triple crown races, mainly the derby, I still prefer this site.

[señorclipclop]

Thanks for the heads up, I will have to watch what I copy & paste from that site from now on. I remember 2 years ago they had an angle that made no sense, so I researched it & they were way off, but I just thought someone made a mistake. We all make mistakes, but it was way off.

Yes, I prefer this forum to the others as well, seems we have more knowledgeable horse players on this site, although I'm only interested in the triple crown races, mainly the derby, I still prefer this site.

Do you remember what that was? I want to make sure Im not using it.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Do you remember what that was? I want to make sure Im not using it.

I don't. I was really surprised that: 1) Someone on a forum would put out fake data. 2) That they would admit it.

They are pretty arrogant over there.

[PowerUpPaynter]

what site?

[SecretAgentMan]

Do you remember what that was? I want to make sure Im not using it.



Actually I don't remember what it was, & I looked thru my notes to see if I could find it but I think I tire out the page because I had found it to be wrong. There are so many angles & trends, its hard to remember what it was.

[SecretAgentMan]

what site?



I don't think we're allowed to post the site name, if we are, let me know.

[hyipro]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-02/new-yorker-s-100-million-stud-is-taking-over-the-kentucky-derby

[SecretAgentMan]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-02/new-yorker-s-100-million-stud-is-taking-over-the-kentucky-derby




Good article, thanks. It seems the breeding has gotten a lot better past few years. Maybe we will start seeing more triple crown winners. If Nyquist does win the KD, I hope he wins the TC, but to me at least, he doesn't have that dominance like AP, then again, Nyquist doesn't have the competition AP had either.

[SecretAgentMan]

Article on Gun Runners workout Monday May 2nd:


Going out for trainer Steve Asmussen at 8:30 a.m., the time designated for Derby and Longines Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) runners, Gun Runner used his long stride to effortlessly complete four furlongs in :50 2/5 after splits of :12 3/5, :25, and :37 4/5. Exercise rider Carlos Rosas guided the smooth-running son of Candy Ride through the easy breeze.

Guiding Gun Runner back to the barn, Asmussen assistant Scott Blasi noted that you'd never guess Gun Runner had done anything that morning.

"He's not hot or anything," Blasi said. "He's not even sweating."

[Huddy Goodjob]

Shhhhhh...

We don't want this guy going off 2nd choice. Let the doubters doubt...and forget this one. We want 15-1 +.

[SecretAgentMan]

Shhhhhh...

We don't want this guy going off 2nd choice. Let the doubters doubt...and forget this one. We want 15-1 +.



Hope he pulls it off Huddy! I think he will be overlooked. I'm think 15-1 ML, & goes of 12-1

[coachv30]

I have $50 win on Exaggertor @ 24-1 in futures Pool 3 and after handicapping last night, he figures on top for me........

Exaggerator
Nyquist
Mor Spirit
Danzing Candy
Suddenbreakingnews

Bring em home!!

[Secondbest]

Baffert is pounding it into Mor Spirit. 3 works in 12 days. Did 5f today in 59 .4. in the SA derby he looked like he was ridden out for 2nd once EX passed him.Two other things SBN better get closer or he'll never make it with 12 collapsing horses in front of him.Also Danzing candy will outbreak everyone but Nyquist looks to be right behind him with outwork and gun runner also in top six or seven early. Waiting for the draw to really study the PPs. This is one tough race this year.

[SecretAgentMan]

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY -



NYQUIST +385
MOHAYMEN +718
MOR SPIRIT +1093
DESTIN +1187
BRODYS CAUSE +1144
EXAGGERATOR +713
OUTWORK +1935
DANZING CANDY +2450
OSCAR NOMINATED +6050
SHAGAF +3225
MO TOM +1853
TOMS READY +4860
MAJESTO +3857
FELLOWSHIP +6050
TROJAN NATION +5250
MY MAN SAM +1285
WHITMORE +2381
GUN RUNNER +1427
LANI +2708
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS +1820
CREATOR +1427



Tomorrow Mike Battaglia will have the odds for the KD after the post draw!

[SecretAgentMan]

There have been 6 undefeated runners in the Derby since 1991 who were North American-based and had competed as 2-year-olds. Three of those 6 won the Derby—Smarty Jones, Barbaro, and Big Brown—and two more ran third; only Gemologist in 2012 failed to hit the board.

[SecretAgentMan]

Since 1991, only one Derby was won by a horse with just a single lifetime win (Giacomo in 2005). Forty-eight others were unsuccessful in their attempt, although four did run second, including Golden Soul in 2013 and Commanding Curve in 2014

[SecretAgentMan]

Since 1991, 30 runners had never gone 1 1/8 miles before the Derby, and Eight Belles’s second-place finish in 2008 was the only in-the-money result. In that same time, only eight horses have attempted to win the Derby following a layoff of 45 days or more. None of those eight finished in the money, and the best finish was sixth place for Circular Quay in the 2007 Derby off an identical eight-week layoff for Destin’s trainer, Todd Pletcher.

[SecretAgentMan]

Lani enters this year’s Derby as the latest in a long line of foreign horses to compete in the Kentucky Derby, after running five times in Japan before winning the UAE Derby in Dubai last start. Canonero II in 1971 remains the only horse to win Kentucky Derby as a foreign shipper, although he did run twice at Del Mar as a juvenile. Since 1991, 19 horses ran in the Derby after competing overseas in their previous start; the best finish of any of them was fifth place by Master of Hounds in 2011, and the most notable flop was the eighth-place finish by Arazi in 1992 as the 4-5 favorite. Like Lani, eight of them were competing in North America for the first time, and 11 used the UAE Derby as a prep for the Kentucky Derby.

[ribjig]

> since X...only one...never won...etc etc on & on...

NOW...
"add up" all these teeny tiny slivers to get chance
that at least one WILL happen in :20: :16: ... :eek: :eek: :eek:
IT MIGHT BE GREATER THAN CHANCE OF FAVORITE WINNING...

[SecretAgentMan]

> since X...only one...never won...etc etc on & on...

NOW...
"add up" all these teeny tiny slivers to get chance
that at least one WILL happen in :20: :16: ... :eek: :eek: :eek:
IT MIGHT BE GREATER THAN CHANCE OF FAVORITE WINNING...



Trends are made to be broken. I like Gun Runner (he has a few trends going against him that are pretty big)

[Secondbest]

As the late Marty Zweig used to say ." The trend is your friend until it ends"

[SecretAgentMan]

Pending the post draw tomorrow, I think I'm playing one exacta, Gun Runner over Nyquist.

Gonna put a total of 8 horses underneath GR for the triple

[sbcaris]

Secret Agent Man: You said trends are made to be broken. There is some truth in that statement. However, a trend is also something that cappers should consider. For example: A recent trend shows that 7 of the last 10 Derby winners had only two starts at the age of 3. Not only is that a high percentage of winners but it is also a reverse of what used to be the case where most Derby winners started 3 or more times at age 3.

The above is just a tidbit of a trend over 10 years but serves as food for thought.

[VigorsTheGrey]

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY -



NYQUIST +385
MOHAYMEN +718
MOR SPIRIT +1093
DESTIN +1187
BRODYS CAUSE +1144
EXAGGERATOR +713
OUTWORK +1935
DANZING CANDY +2450
OSCAR NOMINATED +6050
SHAGAF +3225
MO TOM +1853
TOMS READY +4860
MAJESTO +3857
FELLOWSHIP +6050
TROJAN NATION +5250
MY MAN SAM +1285
WHITMORE +2381
GUN RUNNER +1427
LANI +2708
SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS +1820
CREATOR +1427



Tomorrow Mike Battaglia will have the odds for the KD after the post draw!

How do offshore odds work? GUN RUNNER +1427 what does + 1427 mean?

[señorclipclop]

How do offshore odds work? GUN RUNNER +1427 what does + 1427 mean?

Payouts for a $100 bet, so he is about 14-1.

[SecretAgentMan]

How do offshore odds work? GUN RUNNER +1427 what does + 1427 mean?



$100 win bet at +1427, you would receive $1,427 profit.

[dballard125]

How do offshore odds work? GUN RUNNER +1427 what does + 1427 mean?

Just divide all those odds by 100. 1427 = 14.27 to 1

Nyquist is 3.85 to 1

Etc, Etc.

[SecretAgentMan]

$200 on #5 Gun Runner to Win

$5 triple key #5 with #3 & #13

$1 super, #5 with #3 & #13 with #3 & #13 with ALL

$20 exacta #5 with #13



Will have one more triple.

[yankeelpn]

Playing my first Oak/Derby double and Pick 3:

Oaks/Derby Double: $1.00 = $35.00
Oaks: 3,5,6,11,13
Derby: 4,10,11,13,15,17,18

Pick 3: 0.50 cents = $87.50
Oaks: 3,5,6,11,13
Turf Classic: 3,8,10,11,12
Derby: 4,10,11,13,15,17,18

Derby Pick: #15 Outwork $25 win,pl and show
Long Shot pick: #10 Whitmore $25 pl and show

Good Luck everyone!

[SecretAgentMan]

$1 key, #5 Gun Runner with #3 Creator, #4 Mo Tom, #7 Oscar Nominated, #10 Whitmore, #11 Exaggerator, #13 Nyquist, #14 Mohaymen, #18 Majesto, with the same 8 horses for 3rd place as well......cost will.be $56

[SecretAgentMan]

#7 Oscar Nominated $20 to win

#10 Whitmore $20 to win


If Nyquist wins, I lose :)

[SecretAgentMan]

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/kentucky-derby-live-odds

[dballard125]

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/kentucky-derby-live-odds

2-1 on Nyquist????

As soon as all of the preps were complete, I said this horse wins the KD...but I never thought he would be bet down that low.