long shots sat at lrl

[jasperson]

Three big long shots won sat at lrl and I tried to figure out if anything pointed to improved performance. In the 6th Abiding Star had won a maiden race then an allowance race and then won the NG$75K stakes race and paid $39.40. No mystery there just we didn't allow for his improving form. In the 1st and 7th races both horses showed the same pattern in their last race.
In the first no. 4 Flash Heart a front runner with an E5 rating show in his last race a different style.
last race E1 E2 Lp next to last E1 E2 Lp
65 64 87 93 96 70
He went to the lead and won $55.60
In the 7th no 4 showed the same pattern with an E/P3 rating
last race E1 E2 Lp next to last E1 E2 Lp
60 61 93 89 86 78
He was steadied and still won and paid $121.40
Here is what I don't understand if the stable thought they were going to win they certainly didn't bet like they were sure of a win. I have never bet with a bookie and don't know if you can still lay money with off track.
If I had discovered this pattern prior to the races I still don't think I would have bet either horse without more tote action.

[Si2see]

I was in the handicapping contest Saturday at Laurel. I watched the replays from opening day friday while getting my plays prepared and saw what i thought was one of the biggest speed bias laurel main track that I have ever seen.

Not to my surprise I skipped race 1 in the contest where Flash Heart ( e5 stretch out ) wired the field at 25-1. Although feeling like a fool for not playing him, I felt very good about my play later which was Abiding Star who looked just as bad on paper. Abiding Star wires the field ( E8 stretch out ).

Sunday in the nhc optional tournament I found one laurel race that had the same scenario but the horse looked even worse on paper than the previous two ( 8 horse ). The horse wires the field at over 20-1. I didn't pull the trigger on this one. Another E stretch out. I ended up hitting a cap horse at Aqu and having this one also might have put me in position for nhc seat.

I am not much of a speed player, but if I ever find a scenario like this again I hope I am able to LOAD UP

Jason