DRF-Strange Rides by Watchmaker

[EMD4ME]

Anyone besides Watchmaker feel that there were some strange no sends this past weekend in stakes?

03/13/2016 11:42AM
Watchmaker: Strange rides in several major stakes
By Mike Watchmaker


The following, which has been addressed in this space before, is not jockey bashing. However, when jockeys alter the established running styles of horses, whether in concert with the connections they ride for or on their own, it has repercussions on the game that are far deeper than many might realize.

This is something that horseplayers encounter every single day – unfortunately – and is an endless source of frustration. But there were three examples of this in big stakes races on Saturday, and these examples present a good opportunity to explain to a perhaps more casual fan why this is such a big deal.

read the rest at this link:

http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-strange-rides-several-major-stakes

[Stillriledup]

Where are the judges ?

Nobody's watching and nobody cares.

And nobody's watching the watchers.

[EMD4ME]

I honestly don't know as I didn't bet those races/handicap those races.

CJ?

Pace Fig people?

[EMD4ME]

Where are the judges ?

Nobody's watching and nobody cares.

And nobody's watching the watchers.

Maybe I missed it but in all seriousness, when was the last time a jockey was fined for not sending a speed horse in the USA?

Last I remember was Flores in HK but obviously that wasn't in the USA.

[Stillriledup]

Maybe I missed it but in all seriousness, when was the last time a jockey was fined for not sending a speed horse in the USA?

Last I remember was Flores in HK but obviously that wasn't in the USA.

Doesn't happen. Well, at SRU downs it happens, our judges are home going over tapes to make sure the races are on the up and up, nowhere else is this going on.

Funny how the judges went into the Avila/berrio race video AFTER the fact, but they didnt even notice berrios 'handling' until an unusual circumstance played out, shows you they're not really watching.

[EMD4ME]

Doesn't happen. Well, at SRU downs it happens, our judges are home going over tapes to make sure the races are on the up and up, nowhere else is this going on.

Funny how the judges went into the Avila/berrio race video AFTER the fact, but they didnt even notice berrios 'handling' until an unusual circumstance played out, shows you they're not really watching.

Well, the NYRA channel needs to start negotiating with SRU downs to acquire their signal :lol: :lol: . Maybe Monmouth Joe can get a 2 for 1 special going :lol:

You can't be right. The Cali Stewards don't miss a thing. :lol: They are required to watch 60 hours of tape as part of their accreditation.

[SG4]

I honestly don't know as I didn't bet those races/handicap those races.

CJ?

Pace Fig people?

Awesome Banner seemed like a definite pacesetter, but considering it didn't sound like some of his connections were on board with him running in this race, maybe the jock played along to save him for another day? His entry just seemed out of place & the ride was a non-effort, so draw whatever conclusions you will.

Donworth I fully expected on the lead & hated the rating tactics, but in post-race comments it sounded like O'Neil took blame for him not settling well enough, so maybe that was just their plan to have him rate.

Bolo's race was tricky as it appeared to have several speeds, add in a questionable turf course & it was a recipe for at least someone having a ride you wouldn't expect. That west coast turf miler division is tough cause a lot of solid horses are confirmed front-runners, and Bolo is fast but not need the lead fast. Seems like he might have a tough year often having to chase down quality speed horses, hard to consistently run races similar to the one he made to start off the year.

[tanner12oz]

I've played donworth a few times and he has the feel like a horse that simply finds trouble

[Stillriledup]

Awesome Banner seemed like a definite pacesetter, but considering it didn't sound like some of his connections were on board with him running in this race, maybe the jock played along to save him for another day? His entry just seemed out of place & the ride was a non-effort, so draw whatever conclusions you will.

Donworth I fully expected on the lead & hated the rating tactics, but in post-race comments it sounded like O'Neil took blame for him not settling well enough, so maybe that was just their plan to have him rate.

Bolo's race was tricky as it appeared to have several speeds, add in a bquestionable turf course & it was a recipe for at least someone having a ride you wouldn't expect. That west coast turf miler division is tough cause a lot of solid horses are confirmed front-runners, and Bolo is fast but not need the lead fast. Seems like he might have a tough year often having to chase down quality speed horses, hard to consistently run races similar to the one he made to start off the year.

It's possible that Watchmaker could have done a better job at selecting races to illustrate his point, I'm sure he couldn't list all of them, surprising there were no nyra races that he mentioned, I think he dropped the ball a little bit by bringing up high profile graded races as his examples, jocks aren't 'stiffing' in these races, he should have done some research on overnight races in NY.

[ArlJim78]

I didn't realize there were people who thought that runstyles were sacred and should remain unchanged. If he'd have picked Melatonin this piece would never have been written. Having the winner is the best remedy for the games "endless source of frustration"
They don't come gift wrapped Mike. We can't just hang the "questionable" label on it any time we are wrong, or worse yet get the stewards involved.
I know what is meant by questionable too, but there are any number of valid reasons why the race would unfold differently than what we expected from looking at the PP's. It may be frustrating and often impossible, but it's up to us to try to explain why it happened.
You can't mandate the race shape.

[EMD4ME]

Awesome Banner seemed like a definite pacesetter, but considering it didn't sound like some of his connections were on board with him running in this race, maybe the jock played along to save him for another day? His entry just seemed out of place & the ride was a non-effort, so draw whatever conclusions you will.

Donworth I fully expected on the lead & hated the rating tactics, but in post-race comments it sounded like O'Neil took blame for him not settling well enough, so maybe that was just their plan to have him rate.

Bolo's race was tricky as it appeared to have several speeds, add in a questionable turf course & it was a recipe for at least someone having a ride you wouldn't expect. That west coast turf miler division is tough cause a lot of solid horses are confirmed front-runners, and Bolo is fast but not need the lead fast. Seems like he might have a tough year often having to chase down quality speed horses, hard to consistently run races similar to the one he made to start off the year.

Thank you for the feedback. I can see both sides of the argument with these tidbits.

[EMD4ME]

I didn't realize there were people who thought that runstyles were sacred and should remain unchanged. If he'd have picked Melatonin this piece would never have been written. Having the winner is the best remedy for the games "endless source of frustration"
They don't come gift wrapped Mike. We can't just hang the "questionable" label on it any time we are wrong, or worse yet get the stewards involved.
I know what is meant by questionable too, but there are any number of valid reasons why the race would unfold differently than what we expected from looking at the PP's. It may be frustrating and often impossible, but it's up to us to try to explain why it happened.
You can't mandate the race shape.

There was a race at the SPA last year, late in the meet, where the confirmed late runner of the race was allowed to walk up to the lead (while everyone else was in a supreme battle to cut oxygen from their mount's brains) and this horse walked around the course in pedestrian fractions.

TLG made some proper comments post race and Jason Blewitt looked like he was afraid of even sitting next to TLG as TLG calmly but sternly said his peace. The criticism of the jocks in that race was fully warranted. It just looked terrible.

That SPA race made me want to never look at another horse race again.

It was a 1 off, so of course, I continued to battle on.

Point is, I wanted to hear from you guys/gals, followers of major races/circuits and see what you thought of these races in question.

Although I agree, we as handicappers can't expect a race to play out exactly as we want (after all, many times it is a chess game) there is a fine line of 1) OK, I can see where this and that happened and 2) that just looks absolutely ridiculous.

There is nothing more frustrating than watching a horse with speed be shut down by a jock from the first stride, especially in a Stakes race, where as a customer, you expect things to be fully on the up and up.

Was just wondering if that was the case here. If not, great. If so, not so great.

[Stillriledup]

I didn't realize there were people who thought that runstyles were sacred and should remain unchanged. If he'd have picked Melatonin this piece would never have been written. Having the winner is the best remedy for the games "endless source of frustration"
They don't come gift wrapped Mike. We can't just hang the "questionable" label on it any time we are wrong, or worse yet get the stewards involved.
I know what is meant by questionable too, but there are any number of valid reasons why the race would unfold differently than what we expected from looking at the PP's. It may be frustrating and often impossible, but it's up to us to try to explain why it happened.
You can't mandate the race shape.

So just look the other way ? You'd make a great steward.

[FrankieFigs]

So just look the other way ? You'd make a great steward.

The last sentence of ArlJim's post made it clear to me:

You can't mandate the race shape.

Personally, I don't expect the jockeys, trainers or any connections to let their horses automatically get involved in a 'speed duel' just because it's his preferred running style. If they choose to try something else, so be it. They are trying to win, right?

It is a shitty deal as a bettor if you are involved in the race, but I'm not going to accuse anyone of chicanery or complain that the stewards are ignoring the situation. It's the chance we all take sometimes. It's part of the game.

[Tall One]

I didn't realize there were people who thought that runstyles were sacred and should remain unchanged. If he'd have picked Melatonin this piece would never have been written. Having the winner is the best remedy for the games "endless source of frustration"
They don't come gift wrapped Mike. We can't just hang the "questionable" label on it any time we are wrong, or worse yet get the stewards involved.
I know what is meant by questionable too, but there are any number of valid reasons why the race would unfold differently than what we expected from looking at the PP's. It may be frustrating and often impossible, but it's up to us to try to explain why it happened.
You can't mandate the race shape.


Well said, Jim, and the highlighted are significant. Been over 42 days now, but I took a flyer on a Levine/Carmouche charge at the A from the 3 hole. 1 and 2 both broke slow, Carmouche angled over...and that was your ballgame. Horse hadnt showed a need for the lead...on/near was my designation...and KC was probably more surprised than I was that he inherited the lead.

I didnt second guess it, nor pat myself on the back. That particular race, i caught a break. Rest of the card, not so much. Now, had the other two broke as I imagined, and set a pace, and my horse didnt overcome his spot...'eh, whattya gonna do, but that's for one of the other "questionable ride" threads.

[castaway01]

I didn't realize there were people who thought that runstyles were sacred and should remain unchanged. If he'd have picked Melatonin this piece would never have been written. Having the winner is the best remedy for the games "endless source of frustration"
They don't come gift wrapped Mike. We can't just hang the "questionable" label on it any time we are wrong, or worse yet get the stewards involved.
I know what is meant by questionable too, but there are any number of valid reasons why the race would unfold differently than what we expected from looking at the PP's. It may be frustrating and often impossible, but it's up to us to try to explain why it happened.
You can't mandate the race shape.

Unfortunately for the rest of us, for the two people who post constantly on this site, the answer is "the race was fixed". That's what every thread on this topic eventually devolves to.

[EMD4ME]

Unfortunately for the rest of us, for the two people who post constantly on this site, the answer is "the race was fixed". That's what every thread on this topic eventually devolves to.

Didn't say that, didn't imply that.

And thank god some people take the time to keep these threads moving.

If not, you could take a screen shot once a day and see all that's being said here in 1 second.

[CincyHorseplayer]

There was a race at the SPA last year, late in the meet, where the confirmed late runner of the race was allowed to walk up to the lead (while everyone else was in a supreme battle to cut oxygen from their mount's brains) and this horse walked around the course in pedestrian fractions.

TLG made some proper comments post race and Jason Blewitt looked like he was afraid of even sitting next to TLG as TLG calmly but sternly said his peace. The criticism of the jocks in that race was fully warranted. It just looked terrible.

That SPA race made me want to never look at another horse race again.

It was a 1 off, so of course, I continued to battle on.

Point is, I wanted to hear from you guys/gals, followers of major races/circuits and see what you thought of these races in question.

Although I agree, we as handicappers can't expect a race to play out exactly as we want (after all, many times it is a chess game) there is a fine line of 1) OK, I can see where this and that happened and 2) that just looks absolutely ridiculous.

There is nothing more frustrating than watching a horse with speed be shut down by a jock from the first stride, especially in a Stakes race, where as a customer, you expect things to be fully on the up and up.

Was just wondering if that was the case here. If not, great. If so, not so great.

"While everyone else was in a supreme battle to cut oxygen from their mount's brain". That is awesome! :lol:

We just have to accept this IMO. I don't think it's right to to tell the connections of a horse they have to do anything. Young and/or lightly raced horses are still learning and can develop versatility. Some horses have that versatility imbedded somewhere in their PP's. And older horses sometimes just don't run. There is no way to deal with this for us. Sometimes it works out(Ft Larned BC Classic!) and sometimes it doesn't. The "phenomenon" I think we are up against EMD is the "in awe" aspect of other connections. I saw a horse at GP last weekend trained by a top trainer dropping in class after being outrun in 47.6. Even with the class drop I didn't think he could hang with horses used to running halves in 45-45.4. This required no variant with a 2 second differential. Anyway I think connections are so in awe of a top trainer they don't or won't challenge his mount or think it is suicide to do so. Anyway with 5 horses in the race showing up close speed the dropper got a clear lead,loped along and won for fun. It was pathetic!

[cj]

The ride from the speed horse was baffling. I guess you could say he was buried going long while showing speed, so maybe try something different?

Bolo, only two things I can surmise. One is that the return race took a lot out of him. He ran huge and was returning fairly quickly. He looked a little dull to me. The other is that Smith was just trying to be smart. There was a lot of speed entered on paper.

Donworth I actually don't have a problem with to be honest. It isn't like the horse in front was walking on the lead. He was cutting serious fractions for a 10f race. What purpose would dueling with him up front in a 10f race serve? Sure, he didn't need to get jammed up like he did, but I understand not battling up front.

[Stillriledup]

The last sentence of ArlJim's post made it clear to me:

You can't mandate the race shape.

Personally, I don't expect the jockeys, trainers or any connections to let their horses automatically get involved in a 'speed duel' just because it's his preferred running style. If they choose to try something else, so be it. They are trying to win, right?

It is a shitty deal as a bettor if you are involved in the race, but I'm not going to accuse anyone of chicanery or complain that the stewards are ignoring the situation. It's the chance we all take sometimes. It's part of the game.

You can in harness racing. Drivers get fined and suspended for going too slow on the front end or not 'attempting to win' in certain situations when they drive too conservative on a heavy favorite. So they can be 'told' there are certain ways you have to do things, there's precedent for this.


If you have a speed horse and you wrangle him back, how is that 'trying to win'?

[cj]

I'd add I Will Score in the San Felipe as a horse that was not let run early.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Horse and rider must work as a team...the rider of Donworth looked like he was fighting the horse all the way around...maybe he didn't want to compromise Donworth's chances for the win...but in restraining the way he did, he totally compromised the horses chances for the win...doesn't make any sense...this horse wanted to run and wanted to win...But then again i'm not a jockey and don't know the kind of decision's must be made on the spot...I guess we will see if the same rider appears next time on Donworth...

[classhandicapper]

Some of these rides are clearly tactical errors, but I think a lot of them are trainer intent, changes in training, and changes in form.

If some horse is 6-5 and runs like crap, people will typically dismiss it as the horse going off form.

If some horse usually goes to the lead but didn't today, they automatically assume it was a choice when he may have just gone off form or be training to relax behind horses.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Some of these rides are clearly tactical errors, but I think a lot of them are trainer intent, changes in training, and changes in form.

If some horse is 6-5 and runs like crap, people will typically dismiss it as the horse going off form.

If some horse usually goes to the lead but didn't today, they automatically assume it was a choice when he may have just gone off form or be training to relax behind horses.

I agree with you generally, but in the case of Donworth, the Santa Anita Handicap is the end goal so what I'm left with is...that it was indeed a tactical mistake by the rider to handle him in this fashion....but what do I know?

In hindsight, it probably would have been better to angle him out early and try to get the three or at least 4 path for the run down the stretch...

Fractions:
:224, :461, 1:104, 1:362, 2:02
(:22.82, :46.28, 1:10.81, 1:36.47, 2:02.01)


http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?date=2016-03-12&track=SA&country=USA&race=10&type=inc&print=on

[classhandicapper]

I agree with you generally, but in the case of Donworth, the Santa Anita Handicap is the end goal so what I'm left with is...that it was indeed a tactical mistake by the rider to handle him in this fashion....but what do I know?

In hindsight, it probably would have been better to angle him out early and try to get the three or at least 4 path for the run down the stretch...

Fractions:
:224, :461, 1:104, 1:362, 2:02
(:22.82, :46.28, 1:10.81, 1:36.47, 2:02.01)


http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?date=2016-03-12&track=SA&country=USA&race=10&type=inc&print=on

If you don't mind the red board, when I analyzed the race I concluded there wasn't a lot of speed in the race. So I was searching for who might go and control the pace. I came up with two horses, Donworth and Melatonin (who had good back sprint speed) as the two most likely leaders (I had a very brief pre race conversation with some buddies on it). I was not shocked by the early development, but I expected Donworth to go. Obviously Donworth had a really tough trip. I'll have to watch it again, but I'd guess that no one was afraid of Melatonin when he went for it. They probably decided to let him go rather than wasting themselves chasing a longshot.

[outofthebox]

After watching the race numerous times, at the end of the day Donworth was his own worst enemy. He broke cleanly but was outrun the first 1/8th by an aggressively ridden Melatonin and a sharp General A Rod. When Smith guided Effinex on the outside of Donworth approaching the wire the first time, it put Guiterrez and Donworth in a seemingly sweat position saving ground behind two dueling leaders. Only problem as i see it, is that Donworth wanted no part of that scenario. He became extremely rank, and there aren't many 115 pound jockeys that can restrain a 1000 lb plus animal with a mind of his own. It's an easy toss race for Donworth, but he needs to mind his manners when in precarious situations. As for Melatonin, he deserves all credit for carving out the pace and being the only one who was still finishing strong at the wire.

[ultracapper]

The ride from the speed horse was baffling. I guess you could say he was buried going long while showing speed, so maybe try something different?

Bolo, only two things I can surmise. One is that the return race took a lot out of him. He ran huge and was returning fairly quickly. He looked a little dull to me. The other is that Smith was just trying to be smart. There was a lot of speed entered on paper.

Donworth I actually don't have a problem with to be honest. It isn't like the horse in front was walking on the lead. He was cutting serious fractions for a 10f race. What purpose would dueling with him up front in a 10f race serve? Sure, he didn't need to get jammed up like he did, but I understand not battling up front.

Also, a different rider, a rider notorious for wanting to get his horse to relax early. A rider known to always leave something in the gas tank for when they hit the quarter pole. My guess is Smith looked at the field, saw plenty of speed, and didn't want to get mixed up in it, probably wanted to be right behind it. I'm sure he didn't want to be at the tail, but that may have been, like you said, the horse may have been a little dull after the big comeback win against a horse that can cut wind like a knife.

[EMD4ME]

To The Hong Kong afficionados...

If a horse changes normal tactics, must it be announced to the public before hand?

I've watched some races in Australia and Europe. Is it my imagination? Don't they interview trainers before the race and trainers speak about change of tactics?

Why is it not like that here?

I'm really speaking about the speed horse in the Tampa Bay Derby, not the other 2 horses Watchmaker spoke of.

I can understand the SA Derby horse's decision to sit in the pocket after being outbroken.

I can see Bolo's tactics, be cute and sit back. The Tampa Bay horse was deceiving to the public. Maybe jurisdictions should make connections be more transparent, especially in high profile races?

How would anyone feel if AP was taken back to last like Zenyatta in the BCC and then finished rallying from 10 back in the lane to lose by a head? (Ridiculous example but making a point).

[Tom]

They are trying to win, right?

Win what, the race or their bet?

[FrankieFigs]

You can in harness racing. Drivers get fined and suspended for going too slow on the front end or not 'attempting to win' in certain situations when they drive too conservative on a heavy favorite. So they can be 'told' there are certain ways you have to do things, there's precedent for this.


If you have a speed horse and you wrangle him back, how is that 'trying to win'?

I don't think you're following my post. I was addressing ArlJim's comment about a "mandated race shape". I didn't say anything about going too slow on the front end or driving conservative. I was only referring to sometimes the race isn't run exactly like it looks on paper.

I understand there are bad rides and piss poor decisions in races. But just because a horse might be a 'want the lead' type doesn't mean it should always be sent to the lead if there are others in a race that could create a blistering pace and wear the horse down. Sometimes folks try something different to give their mount the best opportunity to win.

Just because a horse doesn't run a race like it looks on paper doesn't mean the fix is in.....

[outofthebox]

To The Hong Kong afficionados...

If a horse changes normal tactics, must it be announced to the public before hand?

I've watched some races in Australia and Europe. Is it my imagination? Don't they interview trainers before the race and trainers speak about change of tactics?

Why is it not like that here?

I'm really speaking about the speed horse in the Tampa Bay Derby, not the other 2 horses Watchmaker spoke of.

I can understand the SA Derby horse's decision to sit in the pocket after being outbroken.

I can see Bolo's tactics, be cute and sit back. The Tampa Bay horse was deceiving to the public. Maybe jurisdictions should make connections be more transparent, especially in high profile races?

How would anyone feel if AP was taken back to last like Zenyatta in the BCC and then finished rallying from 10 back in the lane to lose by a head? (Ridiculous example but making a point).After the FOY, Awesome Banners trainer was critical of the ride of his horse. Wasn't happy that the jockey took a big hold on the clubhouse turn and take advantage of his speed. He wanted one more route before he was convinced his colt was just a sprinter. So i was shocked to see no effort to go to the lead from the outside.

[classhandicapper]

After the FOY, Awesome Banners trainer was critical of the ride of his horse. Wasn't happy that the jockey took a big hold on the clubhouse turn and take advantage of his speed. He wanted one more route before he was convinced his colt was just a sprinter. So i was shocked to see no effort to go to the lead from the outside.

I didn't read anything, but that sounds like the horse went off form this time.