formula's bet size assistant

[formula_2002]

my bet size with out perform a flat bet (more than likely :) )

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
7

Post
6:57

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$6,281 "

42 on 3 or 5

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
7

Post
6:57

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$6,281 "

$42 play on 3 returns 96.60

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
4

Post
7:25

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,351 "


111 on 1,2 or 8

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
1

Post
7:30

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,906 "


40 on 2 or 5

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
1

Post
7:30

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,906 "

40 bet returns $68.00

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
10

Post
7:49

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$219,920 "


43 on 3 or 5

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
5

Post
7:53

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,299 "

94 on 1 or 2 or 5

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
9

Post
8:02

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,199 "


161 on 1 2 3 or8

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
9

Post
8:02

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,199 "


161 on 8 returned $853

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
5

Post
7:53

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,299 "


94 on 5 returned $375

[formula_2002]

after 4 winning races, a flat bet returned $3.28 on the dollar
my bet size returned $4.08

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
11

Post
8:26

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$201,199 "


55 on 1 or 9

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
4

Post
8:38

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,025 "


98 on 1 or 4 or 8

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine Harness
Race
4

Post
8:38

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,025 "

98 bet on 8 returned $588

[formula_2002]

after 5 winning races, a flat bet returned $3.82 on the dollar
my bet size returned $5.51.
a 1.43 to 1 advantage


though not the intent of this exercise, a bet on all races, 21 horses, returned a 3% profit

[formula_2002]

after 5 winning races, a flat bet returned $3.82 on the dollar
my bet size returned $5.51.
a 1.43 to 1 advantage


though not the intent of this exercise, a bet on all races, 21 horses, returned a 3% profit

[QUOTE=formula_2002]
correction

after 5 winning races, a flat bet returned $3.82 on the dollar
my bet size returned $4.51.
a 1.18 to 1 advantage

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
1

Post
7:15

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,759 "


42 on 4 or 6

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
4

Post
9:00

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,303 "


44 on 1 or 7

[formula_2002]

uk grey r 5


98 on 1 5 7

[formula_2002]

"SAF Greyville
Race
8

Post
11:15

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,301 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 14.70 31.28 45.98


46 on 2 or 3

[formula_2002]

"UK Market Rasen
Race
5

Post
12:30

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,690 "


10 on 2

[formula_2002]

"UK Kelso
Race
6

Post
12:40

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,650 "


101 on 3 4 or 5

[formula_2002]

through todays 4 winning games bet size advantage over flat bet is 1.06-1

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
6

Post
6:20

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,647 "


47.5 on 1 or 8

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
7

Post
6:42

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$67,958 "


107 on 3 6 or 7

[formula_2002]

"Santa Anita
Race
9

Post
7:43

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$86,540 "


61 on 7 and 9

[formula_2002]

"Golden Gate Fields
Race
9

Post
7:55

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$15,373 "

257 on 2 3 4 5 6

[formula_2002]

todays results, 7 winning races
bet size returned $3.44 for a $1 play
flat bet returned $3.17 for a $1 play

bet size advantage 1.09 to 1

totals for thread, 12 winning races
bet size returned $3.89 for a $1 play
flat bet returned $3.44 for a $1 play

bet size advantage 1.13 to1

races bet $1 fb bet ret
1 42.00 2.30 96.60
1 40.00 1.70 68.00
1 94.00 3.80 357.20
1 161.00 5.30 853.30
1 98.00 6.00 588.00
1 44.00 1.80 79.20
1 98.00 2.80 274.40
1 138.00 3.00 414.00
1 101.00 5.00 505.00
1 48.00 2.40 115.20
1 108.00 4.90 529.20
1 61.00 2.30 140.30




12.00 1033.00 41.30 4020.40
1.13 3.44 3.89

[formula_2002]

"SAF Flamingo
Race
9

Post
10:20

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,200 "

275 on 1 3 4 5 12

[formula_2002]

"UK Plumpton
Race
2

Post
10:40

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,288 "

40 on 2 or 3

[formula_2002]

"Parx Racing
Race
2

Post
1:21

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$9,402 "

90 on 2 3 or 5

[formula_2002]

"Parx Racing
Race
3

Post
1:48

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$7,400 "

92 on 4 5 or 6

[formula_2002]

"Parx Racing
Race
4

Post
2:17

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$9,126 "


41 on 1 or 2

[formula_2002]

"Fair Grounds
Race
4

Post
3:55

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$12,149 "


10 0n 2

[formula_2002]

a $1 bet size on the 4 winning races return is $3.24, a flat bet $2.73

The bet size outperformed the flat bet by a factor of 1.19-1

that would cut the track take from 17% down to less than 1 1/2 %

races bet $1 fb bet ret
1 14-Mar 90.00 4.60 414.00
1 92.00 2.40 220.80
1 41.00 2.60 106.60
1 10.00 1.30 13.00
4.00 233.00 10.90 754.40
1.19 2.73 3.24


this thread had 16 winning races. the bet size outperformed the flat bet by a factor of 1.17-1, cutting a 17 % track take out to less than 3%
I think I can improve upon that. I'll start a new thread.