Pace projection opinion

[bello]

Let me try this a different way so I don't offend anyone or get called a troll.

I am serious here. I want honest opinions.

in race 7 today at Aqueduct, how did the folks who take pace into consideration
(as I do) view the pace projection in this race?

No nonsense, I really want to know where I may have misread the race.

PA feel free to delete my previous post

[NorCalGreg]

Let me try this a different way so I don't offend anyone or get called a troll.

I am serious here. I want honest opinions.

in race 7 today at Aqueduct, how did the folks who take pace into consideration
(as I do) view the pace projection in this race?

No nonsense, I really want to know where I may have misread the race.

PA feel free to delete my previous post


This is probably not the answer you expected, bello--but in a race so top-heavy with "want-the-lead" Hi Point "E's"...the E/P8 EASY COMPARISON is sitting pretty. I know it's easy to say after the race--but I did hit the exacta
I also liked the 8 for his S3 style..and only included the 6 because he was back so quick.

COMPLETED: 1d2dd-9e56fAQU#7 $1 ExactaBX,1, 6, 8 $6.00 $79.25+ $73.25

[bello]

Thanks NCG...Not looking for any particular answer. I will admit I single the 3 in the PA contest because I was expecting a dual and went for the stalker who I felt would sit a perfect trip on the rail.. Most of my PA contest picks I look for the lone speed who starts from or has the rail to start.
This was my best bet of the day #3 and I was shocked to see a Lone Speed in the race, particularly one that I missed.

[bello]

TimeForm guys? How did you rate the pace projection in this race?

If you saw the one getting a clear lead I just might get you product.

I really am curious.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

timeform had the :1: up top with the :5: under a fast pace....

[bello]

timeform had the :1: up top with the :5: under a fast pace....

Well they called the position, but a fast pace never developed. My own "script" called for a pretty significant dual with the sprinter likely winging out of the gate.

I script every race in my head. Of course crap happens in any given race and they don't "follow the script" . For me this occurs more often at NYRA for than anywhere else. Of course, getting involved in a speed dual could very well be the death of the cheaper horses in any given race, but so does taking a natural speed horse back and letting a lone speed type lope on the lead. Now if I could figure out who that lone speed will be on the inner track I would play it. But it simple eludes me here. And believe me, not for lack of trying.

Thanks for the input.

[cj]

Well they called the position, but a fast pace never developed. My own "script" called for a pretty significant dual with the sprinter likely winging out of the gate.

I script every race in my head. Of course crap happens in any given race and they don't "follow the script" . For me this occurs more often at NYRA for than anywhere else. Of course, getting involved in a speed dual could very well be the death of the cheaper horses in any given race, but so does taking a natural speed horse back and letting a lone speed type lope on the lead. Now if I could figure out who that lone speed will be on the inner track I would play it. But it simple eludes me here. And believe me, not for lack of trying.

Thanks for the input.


My best guess is the 5 just didn't have it yesterday. Despite the slow pace he backed out of it pretty badly and was done before the 6f mark. I don't think it was a strategy decision not to contest the lead. The race did come back very slow early as you can see in the attached chart.

[bello]

Thanks CJ....

Someone asked me on the handicapping thread why I play the minr league tracks and I said the horses and jocks run the way I project the pace more often than not. Gives me an edge on my own pace projection that I honestly do without software but the old fashion way.

I love speed favoring tracks and you would think I would love yhe Big A inner track, but my script is usually off so I lay off.

Have you found your Pace Projector is more "true to form" at some tracks than others?

[cj]

Thanks CJ....

Someone asked me on the handicapping thread why I play the minr league tracks and I said the horses and jocks run the way I project the pace more often than not. Gives me an edge on my own pace projection that I honestly do without software but the old fashion way.

I love speed favoring tracks and you would think I would love yhe Big A inner track, but my script is usually off so I lay off.

Have you found your Pace Projector is more "true to form" at some tracks than others?

I think the jockeys are more aggressive at smaller tracks and pace projections are easier. I also always find dirt is easier than turf, and sprints easier than routes.

[Stillriledup]

Thanks CJ....

Someone asked me on the handicapping thread why I play the minr league tracks and I said the horses and jocks run the way I project the pace more often than not. Gives me an edge on my own pace projection that I honestly do without software but the old fashion way.

I love speed favoring tracks and you would think I would love yhe Big A inner track, but my script is usually off so I lay off.

Have you found your Pace Projector is more "true to form" at some tracks than others?

I find CT a track where it's hard to go wire to wire, that colony is very aggressive there always seems to be some huge battle around the track, they aren't shy there about 'racing horses'