Aq 8th - TomFool H-G3

[NorCalGreg]

Interesting and tough race, this one. For the less adventuresome--go ahead and hand this one to :9: Salutos Amigos@ 2-1. And while you're at it, don't forget to include :5: Dads Caps @ 4-1, and round out your trifecta with :8:
Stallwalkin' Dude @ 5-1 ML. Those are the easy picks that don't pay nuffin', and require even less handicapping. If that's all you got---just pass the race and be done with it.

For those of us that see a Salutos Amigos, and our first thought is--"I'm gonna see if I can beat this horse"--this is for you. I'm not about to concede anything to the :9: horse. This race is full of E/P TYPES....that prefer to let someone else lead, while they stalk.

Funny thing about "stalking" on this track--that doesn't work that well lately. This past week--15 of 23 of these inner dirt sprints, have been wire jobs. Maybe 'Amigos is so powerful--this is a mere annoyance--since he owns this race, he can run whatever way he feels today--and still dominate yet again.

I'm thinking not---not this time. My pick is the :2: Angry Moon 12-1 ML , who will look to grab that early lead and never look back. He's at the top of his game, should figure prominently for the win. :4: Alex The Terror's last 2 wins have come on off tracks, or he would get a bigger look.

Actually like all three of Chris Englehart's entries, today...including Angry Moon-- all look to be primed and coming up to a big race.

I give :6: Nubin Ridge 20-1 & :7: Mewannarose 10-1 a definite shot here.

My exacta: :2: :6: / :2: :6: :7: :9: $2 Exacta = $12

Trifecta :2: :6: / :2: :6: :7: :9: / :4: :5: :9: :10: 50cent tri = $11

Anyone else going to try to beat Salutos Amigos? ....it wasn't that hard for RUN HAPPY. :D
-NCG

[azeri98]

There is a lot of pace in this race, I think it will set up for a closer.I think the :2: :5: :7: :10: all want the lead. The :2: :7: :10: all stepping up in class. As Greg said I won't bet because I like the 9 and 8, and I would throw the :3: :4: :5: in the back end of tri or super with :9: being the key.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:11: Loki's Vengeance looks very interesting to me.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I've only taken a few stabs at the inner so far and definitely been a case of zigging when I should be zagging and vice versa. This is a really interesting betting race, I think. Which means it probably isn't. But, with Salutos Amigos looking like a heavy presence and the fact despite facing tons better for the most part still only has a single North American win since Dubai in the mud over a bad field in the Mr. P at Monmouth - it's an easy sort of race to start to see opportunity if you take a glass half empty view of a horse that has won 60% of his races over off-tracks, seems to always be left with just a little too much to do lately, hasn't won a race of any real significance since this spot last year, and has burned money like a Walter White charcoal grill the last three times that he's looked 'just a notch better'.

Unfortunately that assessment does little to help take a stand on anyone else hours before post time odds are able to help narrow the focus. But, the race does seem to break down into a few neat little boxes once you eliminate the favorite from the equation. You have the small group that are ambitiously placed - some with cause due to excellent current form and some with the kind of insight that generally comes from hallucinogens. You have a broader group that encompasses those that every agent on the backside could have probably predicted before nominations came out would be in the race since they've been knocking heads in the upper level optional claim conditioned allowance with regular forays into these kinds of spots.

Then you have the 'out of context' horse. I find myself, for better or for worse, getting stuck on the out of context horse when a race likes this seems to break down the way this does in terms of field composition.

In this case it is :3: Always Sunshine. Unlike most or maybe more accurately, the stereotype, he isn't a grizzled winter warrior staple on the inner. He's a young four-year-old, lightly raced, with no resume, not even a recorded breeze, over the surface. Conventional wisdom going back probably too far to be of any real value anymore was always to gravitate towards those with established inner form, so this guy is even more of an out of context type than my usual out of context love affairs at Aqueduct.

But you go back over his races, and granted I'm not sold on playing the race and haven't watched replays, but painting the picture off the PPs shows a pretty solid horse with what seems to be some legit rationale for his lesser finishes. For the most part, he seems to be a gamer. And he has a very useful style that doesn't seem to force him to run a race to some sort of precise plan that will be the sole way to yield a good effort. He plays the hands he's dealt and seems to play them well.

Hard horse for me to love, but really easy to find myself interested by in a field like this when I see a 10-1 M/L. I'm a little worried that the fact that his last two races kind of jump off the page - even if they are against entry level allowance runners and a minor stake at Laurel - and he may get a little of that old 'good last race' action that seems to be a staple of betting. But I also think that there are more than enough of those conventional wisdom sort of knocks against him that it probably compensates and he's every bit of the 10-1. Can't see 25-1 or anything like that, but I think the M/L is probably pretty sharp here. Somewhere in the 10-1 to 15-1 range. Yeah, I'll probably get sucked in and wonder what the hell I was thinking by the three-eighths pole.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

That is the greatest write up I've ever seen for a 10/1 shot in my life.

Congrats sir Hannibal, and Godspeed to the :3:!

[Stillriledup]

Fantastic Betting race, very wide open. I was looking at this Nubin Ridge to clunk up for 3rd or 4th to complete a healthy tri or super. I wouldn't talk anyone off anything in here.

[NorCalGreg]

Yeah...hard to just flat-out toss anyone here. The :9: appears so dominating---almost every other entrant, save for DADS CAPS--are overlays by default.
Find 'Amigos last actual WIN---it's been awhile.

That :11: horse LDH mentioned, could be right there to the surprise of no one,
as well as the :3: horse that JHS has so elequently documented.
The crazy pick no one has mentioned--the 50-1 shot SPARTIATIS, could just grab the lead and never look back.

These are the kinds of races that make this sport so fascinating.

[Stillriledup]

50 cent tri:

23479 w 2345789,10,11 w 6

58,10,11 w 23479 w 6

10 c super:

23479 w 2345789,10,11 w same as leg 2 w 6

5,8,10,11 w 23479 w 2345789,10,11 w 6

[classhandicapper]

He got a perfect setup, but Salutos Amigos is an easy horse to root for. That late run was fun to watch.