Big solar is heading for boom times in the US

[hcap]

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/03/our-long-awaited-solar-power-future-finally-here

The installed cost of big solar has fallen 50 percent since 2009, from $6.30/W to around $3.10/W at the end of 2014. Some projects were down as low as $2/W....The stretch goal of the Department of Energy's 2011 Sunshot Initiative is to drive installation costs down to $1/W, which it says "would make solar without additional subsidies competitive with the wholesale rate of electricity, nearly everywhere in the US."

The CEO of First Solar recently said that "by 2017, we'll be under $1.00 per watt fully installed on a tracker in the western United States." It appears costs are falling faster than almost anyone predicted.

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/10/11192022/big-solar-boom-times

[Tom]

Big Solar?
Like Soyndra? :lol:

Better shot for Big Moon!

[classhandicapper]

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/03/our-long-awaited-solar-power-future-finally-here

The installed cost of big solar has fallen 50 percent since 2009, from $6.30/W to around $3.10/W at the end of 2014. Some projects were down as low as $2/W....The stretch goal of the Department of Energy's 2011 Sunshot Initiative is to drive installation costs down to $1/W, which it says "would make solar without additional subsidies competitive with the wholesale rate of electricity, nearly everywhere in the US."

The CEO of First Solar recently said that "by 2017, we'll be under $1.00 per watt fully installed on a tracker in the western United States." It appears costs are falling faster than almost anyone predicted.

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/10/11192022/big-solar-boom-times

This is good news. As long as it makes economic sense, we should pursue and expand solar power. It's forcing it on us when it doesn't make economic sense that's a problem.

[davew]

Thank god Harry Reid finally got a job for his nephew with government help.

Does solar power work on carbon dioxide? The last little video has me scratching my head.

[rastajenk]

I agree completely with Classcapper.

But I have to wonder: how can any self-respecting Gaia-loving earth mother ever see these panel farms as anything other than a blight on the landscape? I can see some serious environmental in-fighting as these become more common.

[Inner Dirt]

Unfortunately all the panels are pretty much made in CHINA. The only new jobs created are at McDonalds. Same for the windmill turbines, made in CHINA. We need to get the manufacturing of green energy products in the USA.

[Tom]

So bottom line is, in order to install and these panels, we have to pay China to POLLUTE far more than we would using gas or oil instead of them.

A net outcome of MORE harm to the environment.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

[HalvOnHorseracing]

This is from the American Wind Energy Association

Wind Industry Manufacturing Facts

There are over 559 wind-related manufacturing facilities in the U.S.

In 2012, 8 new facilities came online in 8 different states

Wind-related manufacturing facilities are spread across 44 states

28 wind turbine manufacturers installed turbines in 2011

At least 10 R&D facilities conduct advanced wind turbine research

Wind-related manufacturing facilities employ more than 25,000 people

Since 2005, more than 89 percent of all U.S. wind capacity has been installed due to strong annual growth, creating a market and need for domestic wind energy manufacturing capabilities.

Prior to 2005, only one wind turbine original equipment manufacturer (OEM) assembled utility-scale turbines in the United States. By the end of 2012, a total of 12 nacelle assembly facilities were online. This growth in U.S. wind-related manufacturing has occurred across the entire value chain – there are currently 13 facilities producing blades and 12 tower manufacturing facilities.

Growing domestic production has resulted in a significant trickle-down effect as OEMs establishing a manufacturing presence in the United States have attracted supply chain companies capable of supplying the 8,000 components comprising a wind turbine. As a result, there are now at least 559 wind-related manufacturing facilities spread across 44 states supplying components to the wind energy industry.

The growing manufacturing capacity here is reflected in the increasing domestic content of turbines, with 67 percent of U.S.-deployed turbines’ value being manufactured domestically in recent years, up from less than 25 percent prior to 2005.

[Clocker]

Unfortunately all the panels are pretty much made in CHINA.

Trump will put an end to that with some hefty tariffs on the Chinese. ;)

[davew]

So bottom line is, in order to install and these panels, we have to pay China to POLLUTE far more than we would using gas or oil instead of them.

A net outcome of MORE harm to the environment.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

Out of site, out of mind. When I am in WA I see full coal train cars everyday - heading to Canada to put on a boat to China - not clean enough for us, but clean enough for them.....

[Tom]

not clean enough for us, but clean enough for them.....

...to build the crap we don't want to use. The old shell game.

And the tree-huggers bought it. China gets the jobs and we get the shaft.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Here's my energy plan

1. The highest priority use for natural gas would be home heating. Modern furnaces approach 95% efficiency, while a natural gas power plant isn't going to be much above 60% efficient

2. Power generation should shift to primary nuclear, and especially small, modular reactors. Military bases specifically should go off grid (to prevent problems in the case of a grid attack) to modular nukes and solar. Utility size solar should become more prevalent in areas with high solar radiation indices. Wind will remain a niche fuel until it develops more efficient storage. Solar is quickly approaching 24/7 status with salt storage.

3. There should be incentives to expand distributed (rooftop) solar, especially for new construction.

4. Autos should continue to see the fleet hybridized, although gasoline is around for a while. One thing to think about is that the more battery powered vehicles, the lower the gas tax revenues.

The shift to nuclear and solar deals with the carbon emission problem, and no the energy used to construct building materials for those energy sources doesn't approach the lifetime energy generated from them. Once nuclear plants are amortized you can generate power for less than 2 cents per kW hour. Obviously the waste strorage issue would have to be resolved once and for all, but there are options. And don't let anyone tell you current nuclear technology isn't safe. Natural gas becomes cheaper as supply increases and demand is focused on home heating instead of power generation. That essentially increases spendable income for Americans in colder climates. The grid becomes less vulnerable to attack because of more distributed (and believe me if terrorists want to disrupt things, messing with the grid is a scary option).

In the early 1900's all the horse and buggy manufacturers were crying about how autos would kill an industry. We adapted. Technological advances work out best for the economy and the world adapts. Lots of jobs created, DOMESTICALLY in the construction and operation of new plants.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Thank god Harry Reid finally got a job for his nephew with government help.

Does solar power work on carbon dioxide? The last little video has me scratching my head.
You can't generate carbon dioxide without burning something that contains carbon. That's just chemistry. For large solar the heat of the sun heats water that turns a turbine that generates electricity. When they talk about CO2 generation from solar they usually mean the industrial processes used to produce materials to construct solar, not generation once the facility is constructed.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Here's my energy plan

1. The highest priority use for natural gas would be home heating. Modern furnaces approach 95% efficiency, while a natural gas power plant isn't going to be much above 60% efficient

2. Power generation should shift to primary nuclear, and especially small, modular reactors. Military bases specifically should go off grid (to prevent problems in the case of a grid attack) to modular nukes and solar. Utility size solar should become more prevalent in areas with high solar radiation indices. Wind will remain a niche fuel until it develops more efficient storage. Solar is quickly approaching 24/7 status with salt storage.

3. There should be incentives to expand distributed (rooftop) solar, especially for new construction.

4. Autos should continue to see the fleet hybridized, although gasoline is around for a while. One thing to think about is that the more battery powered vehicles, the lower the gas tax revenues.



I agree with most of your plan, except I'd like to see the entire auto fleet transition to nat gas. The technology exist, just need to buildout the fueling infrastructure.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Trump will put an end to that with some hefty tariffs on the Chinese. ;)
You think he'll be slapping those tariffs on iPhones from China too? You might take a check on how many things you buy come from China. You don't have to be Secretary of the Treasury to figure out when you slap a tariff on something the cost goes up. How many of those red-blooded Americans will be whooping it up when the cost of thousands of items goes up? And if you think all those jobs will move from China to the U.S., take a quick check at our minimum wage, which is higher than what workers in China make.Even if the plan is to move jobs to the U.S., it still entails is paying higher prices for everything that was made in China, and I'm not sure that works for most people.

Unless you were just kidding, in which case, good one.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I agree with most of your plan, except I'd like to see the entire auto fleet transition to nat gas. The technology exist, just need to buildout the fueling infrastructure.
It's the fueling infrastructure and rapid recharging. Nobody is going to wait half an hour at a fueling station to recharge the battery.

[ElKabong]

(RE:Trump) You think he'll be slapping those tariffs on iPhones from China too? You might take a check on how many things you buy come from China. You don't have to be Secretary of the Treasury to figure out when you slap a tariff on something the cost goes up. How many of those red-blooded Americans will be whooping it up when the cost of thousands of items goes up? And if you think all those jobs will move from China to the U.S., take a quick check at our minimum wage, which is higher than what workers in China make.Even if the plan is to move jobs to the U.S., it still entails is paying higher prices for everything that was made in China, and I'm not sure that works for most people.

Unless you were just kidding, in which case, good one.

Shhh ! The Trump people don't want to hear details like this. Going forward , please use the phrases "make America great again", and "I'm going to make some really good deals in DC", and "I love the under-educated". Anything less vague confuses his masses.

You're on point with your post

[Saratoga_Mike]

It's the fueling infrastructure and rapid recharging. Nobody is going to wait half an hour at a fueling station to recharge the battery.

How long does it take to refuel a nat gas-powered car?

[Tom]

This is a job for Doctor Solar, aka Big Solarman....more BS than you can handle!

[_______]

How long does it take to refuel a nat gas-powered car?

I know this was rhetorical but the issues around infrastructure aren't small. The most efficient delivery of NG is via pipeline. Refueling stations are going to need to be tied into that network. Home refueling is possible but many utilities have high moisture content in their product. That isn't a problem in modern furnaces and stoves but becomes a much greater problem in an internal combustion engine. That needs to be fixed before wide adaptation.

And a large part of the population doesn't have access to NG. That doesn't prevent a build out to reach them but it has to make economic sense to do so.

When looking at NG prices today, this might make you shrug your shoulders but what happens to pricing when a substantial portion of the consumer fleet is running on NG?

NG requires much larger fuel tanks than gasoline to achieve still substantially shorter ranges. The consumer vehicle Honda sells gets 150-180 miles per tank and you have lost half the trunk you get in the gas version to accommodate the larger fuel tank.

[Clocker]

Unless you were just kidding, in which case, good one.

Thank you. :p

You are saying the same thing I have said here often, without impact on the Trumpsters.

The first principle of economics in this case is that exporters don't pay tariffs, customers do. This applies to tariffs on China for "fair" trade or tariffs on Mexico to pay for the wall.

The second point is that if China is priced out of the US market by tariffs on their exports to us, two things happen. One, China puts tariffs on our stuff. Like on GM, which sells more cars in China than in the US. And two, if Chinese solar panels, for example, get priced out of the US market, solar panel production will migrate to some more favorable off-shore location, and continue to be imported in the US at prices domestic companies can't compete with.

[delayjf]

Here's my energy plan

2. Power generation should shift to primary nuclear, and especially small, modular reactors. Military bases specifically should go off grid (to prevent problems in the case of a grid attack) to modular nukes and solar.
Interesting -

I have not yet heard of "modular nuclear"

4. Autos should continue to see the fleet hybridized, although gasoline is around for a while. One thing to think about is that the more battery powered vehicles, the lower the gas tax revenues.

CA - will then tax individuals on their mileage usage and not by the gallon.

The shift to nuclear and solar deals with the carbon emission problem, and no the energy used to construct building materials for those energy sources doesn't approach the lifetime energy generated from them. Once nuclear plants are amortized you can generate power for less than 2 cents per kW hour.

Californians are paranoid regarding nuclear energy, they recent forced the closure of 1 nuclear power plant close to Camp Pendleton. I always thought Nevada or Utah might be a good place to build underground reactors, not being a physicist, I have no idea how feasible that would be.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I have not yet heard of "modular nuclear"

Californians are paranoid regarding nuclear energy, they recent forced the closure of 1 nuclear power plant close to Camp Pendleton. I always thought Nevada or Utah might be a good place to build underground reactors, not being a physicist, I have no idea how feasible that would be.

You can get information on SMRs here. http://www.energy.gov/ne/nuclear-reactor-technologies/small-modular-nuclear-reactors They are exactly what they sound like. Small units that are built in a factory and transported to a site by traditional transport modes. The modular part means that they can be strung together to meet an energy need. So if the individual units are 50MW, you could connect four to generate 200MW. As a point of reference, 200MW will power 160,000 homes.

I'll point out that for decades, battleships and submarines have been nuclear powered, with no accidents. Built in accordance with current safety standards, nuclear is safer than, say, a chemical plant in Texas.

They could be installed underground, with proper heat dissipation. Californians are paranoid about large scale nuclear for a few reasons. One, it takes massive amounts of cooling water so they have generally been built on the coast, which makes people think of Tsunamis. Two, when Fukishima happened, it was related to a large scale plant built on a fault line and below the level of a tsunami. It would be an excellent idea to not build them in such areas, and California is full of fault zones.

This is where I would depart wholly from the stance of the enviros. If you want carbon free electricity to recharge you iPhones, iPads, and all your other devices, and you want that electricity to be 24/7 reliable, you don't have many choices.