**Pace Spot Plays 03/09

[NorCalGreg]

These are horses I've found, all with some sort of PACE ANOMALY--either led early and had the highest late pace fig--or closed late and had the high E-1 figure...or similar situation.
Usually, horses that show this potentially powerful combination--are at short odds. The following are horses I've found that are 8-1 or better--with a possibly powerful pace-situation.
All are back w/in in 30 days--Trainer Win Min 10%--unless an extreme pace situation calls for relaxing that requirement:

--CHARLESTOWN

2ND :7: SOUPER FUNNY 10-1

6TH :3: KILMORE BOUND 15-1

--DELTA DOWNS

2ND :6: DIAMOND CHASER 20-1

5TH :2: SNEAKY CHOICE 20-1

--MAHONING VALLEY

7TH :8: I'M MR RIGHT 8-1

8TH :5: MIGHTY HUTCH 10-1

--PENN NATIONAL

3RD :6: ATHENA IN FLIGHT 8-1

--TURF PARADISE

4TH :5: KOZANI 10-1

6TH :1: MAKINGFUNINTHESUN 12-1

**More plays, methods testing, and horses to watch- can be found on the *Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc thread.
If you'd like to test out your own methods--you're welcome to post them there. Please include an explanation of any method being tested --thanks

have a good day

✨NCG

[bello]

NCG, I only handicap Charlestown on the tracks you listed so I looked at the CT selections.

As an aside, I never used software or computerized systems in horse racing just good old fashion 4 decades of playing and learning.

In first look in race 2 my own pace projections and race styles show the 7 as a need to lead type, and he will never get it with the very fast 3 in the race. If the 3 was not in the race the 7 would have a great shot, but I eliminated him due to a likely speed dual. This projects to be such a significant speed dual if they are both in, I would be more inclined to toss the 3 at 6-5 as well.

Does your formula not take into account a speed dual. Not trying to bust on you, but trying to understand.

And in race 6 you went with #3 Kilmore Bound who seems to be a need the lead type turning back to 4.5 furlongs. Some others will outbreak him, but if he can find a way to come from way off the pace he could be dangerous.

Anyways, I am curious how these selections came about and best of luck. I am not betting tonight so if you win you wont be beating anything but my selections.

BTW, I don't bet much anyways. I handicap, and follow along with a handful of tracks, and really send it in when I get to those tracks live. I am an at home handicapper but not an at home bettor. I save the gambling for the live experience only. Less stress that way.

Good Luck

[NorCalGreg]

NCG, I only handicap Charlestown on the tracks you listed so I looked at the CT selections.

As an aside, I never used software or computerized systems in horse racing just good old fashion 4 decades of playing and learning.

In first look in race 2 my own pace projections and race styles show the 7 as a need to lead type, and he will never get it with the very fast 3 in the race. If the 3 was not in the race the 7 would have a great shot, but I eliminated him due to a likely speed dual. This projects to be such a significant speed dual if they are both in, I would be more inclined to toss the 3 at 6-5 as well.

Does your formula not take into account a speed dual. Not trying to bust on you, but trying to understand.

And in race 6 you went with #3 Kilmore Bound who seems to be a need the lead type turning back to 4.5 furlongs. Some others will outbreak him, but if he can find a way to come from way off the pace he could be dangerous.

Anyways, I am curious how these selections came about and best of luck. I am not betting tonight so if you win you wont be beating anything but my selections.

BTW, I don't bet much anyways. I handicap, and follow along with a handful of tracks, and really send it in when I get to those tracks live. I am an at home handicapper but not an at home bettor. I save the gambling for the live experience only. Less stress that way.

Good Luck


Heya Bello:

I admit my handicapping is unconventional, in that--with this method I only see the last-race pace figures E-1, E-2, & LATE. Also--first call position & lengths behind. I've found that more "honest" pace numbers come from horses that were part of the pace--which means they were close up early (or leading, is even better)
If a horse is midpack or worse--he wasn't part of the pace--so his numbers are ignored, no matter what they may be.
As you pointed out--I could incorporate running-styles and quirin points--for a more complete pace picture, and that is next on my list to do.

In the 2nd @ CTX--the :7: SOUPER FUNNY 10-1 ML ..has identical E-1 E-2 figs as the overwhelming fav :3: RAZZLE DAZZLE MAN --and they are the only 2 horses in the race to have led 1ST CALL --last out.
'SOUPER is back in 19 days, 12% Trainer...so I give that one a better than 10-1 chance of pulling an upset.

The 6TH race pick--KILMORE BOUND 15-1 ML ...has the highest E-1 pace figure for this 4.5F dash---and is the only horse in the race to have the lead, 1st call--last out. Since there is no 2ND CALL fig for short sprints--'Kilmore evidently raced at a longer distance last--because he shows an impressive 100 E-2 figure--the rest, having run at this distance last out, don't show a 2nd call fig.

Kilmore has one red flag--he's not back in the 30 days requirement. But most in this race aren't either...so at 15-1 I left Kilmore in play.

I hope this makes sense, bello...if not it's because my handicapping doesn't make complete sense. I want only the absolutely essential info--the more info I have--the closer to the favorite I seem to get.

I know you're a sharp capper, bello...I see you winning the pick-4 contest almost every week, so far be it for me, to give YOU any lessons on 'capping--you could give me some.
I honestly thought you bet horizontals every day--since you do so well with them.

Post up any "live" plays you might care to--in the other thread we have going
--we can always use another thoughtful handicapper's ideas.

-NCG

[bello]

I appreciate the feedback NCG. Always curious on how other get to their selections in case I am missing something.

Got lucky on a couple in the Big A contest. I better hit one next weekend or I may fade into oblivion.

[bello]

CTown,,,early numbers
Race 1
P4 3/26/36/129

[dartman51]

CTown,,,early numbers
Race 1
P4 3/26/36/129

I wouldn't totally discount the 1 in the first at C Town. Trainer is 29% with FTS, 30% at the track, and T/J hit @ 35%. This FTS has the numbers to be in the mix. The other FTS, the 10, isn't far behind. GL with you P4. :ThmbUp:

[bello]

NCG....I hope you are a show player.....Nice selection on the 7

[pandy]

These are horses I've found, all with some sort of PACE ANOMALY--either led early and had the highest late pace fig--or closed late and had the high E-1 figure...or similar situation.
Usually, horses that show this potentially powerful combination--are at short odds. The following are horses I've found that are 8-1 or better--with a possibly powerful pace-situation.
All are back w/in in 30 days--Trainer Win Min 10%--unless an extreme pace situation calls for relaxing that requirement:

--CHARLESTOWN

2ND :7: SOUPER FUNNY 10-1

6TH :3: KILMORE BOUND 15-1

--DELTA DOWNS

2ND :6: DIAMOND CHASER 20-1

5TH :2: SNEAKY CHOICE 20-1

--MAHONING VALLEY

7TH :8: I'M MR RIGHT 8-1

8TH :5: MIGHTY HUTCH 10-1

--PENN NATIONAL

3RD :6: ATHENA IN FLIGHT 8-1

--TURF PARADISE

4TH :5: KOZANI 10-1

6TH :1: MAKINGFUNINTHESUN 12-1

**More plays, methods testing, and horses to watch- can be found on the *Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc thread.
If you'd like to test out your own methods--you're welcome to post them there. Please include an explanation of any method being tested --thanks

have a good day

✨NCG


This is a good use of pace handicapping. Extremes are always dangerous.

[paddy79]

Bello why do you prefer Charles town? I remember you posted a lot of finger lakes selections and they were quite good. You seem like a chalk player, am I right? I'm just wondering what specific tracks you find best for handicapping?

[bello]

I like horizontal plays which can turn chalk into ok payoffs. This allows me to single chalk I really like as in race 1 tonight. Notice though I didn't even use the 1-5 shot in race 2 as I felt he would be compromised bug time my NCG's selection.

At both Finger Lakes and Charletown, the race riding is very predictable. If there looks like there will be a speed dual, there likely will be a speed and the frontrunners will be compromised. If there looks to be a lone speed, well there likely will be a lone speed, and he will likely be chalk and likely win.

In the general board there is a discussion going on about pace at NYRA and the lack of competition for the early lead. And it is very true. The jocks there do not challenge each other and I cannot even guess which will get the lead. They do not run true to form. Just not as consistent to handicap as the jocks at the lower level tracks. Same to an extent with the lower level horses. They may be too slow to make it at the "a" tracks, but I find the lower level horses to be more consistent that the top horse flesh on any given card.
To summarize, I find it easier to handicap the least worst of a bad bunch that the bes of a good bunch.

[bello]

And despite our best handicapping...you can be live with 3 horses as I was in race 4 and two can break 5 lengths slow and the third hangs. It is a tough game.

[NorCalGreg]

NCG....I hope you are a show player.....Nice selection on the 7


Unfortunately, I play these pace plays W/P only.