San Felipe and Tampa Bay Derby

[PowerUpPaynter]

Good Day,

The stars come out this weekend. Can't wait to see Brody's Cause and also interested to see how Smokey Image handles the step up. I still think Mor Spirit is very vulnerable and not a top notch horse.

[Spiderman]

Only eight nominated for San Felipe. Mor Spirit not among them:

AMERICAN DUBAI dk b/.c.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
BLACK OPS dk b/.g.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
FLEXIBILITY b.c.3 Klaravich Stables, Inc. & Lawrence Chad C. Brown
IFYOUSNOOZEYOULOSE b.c.3 Loooch Racing Stable, Inc. Peter R. Walder
SATURDAY SHOCKWAVE b.c.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
SUNNY RIDGE gr/ro.g.3 Dennis A. Drazin Jason Servis
TITANIUM POINT gr/ro.c.3 Sawyer Cattle Company Dan L. McFarlane
TUSK gr/ro.g.3 Flaxman Holdings, Ltd. H. Graham Motion
CLOSED THURSDAY, MARCH 3, 2016 WITH 8 NOMINATIONS*
*PENDING LATE MAIL

Sunny Ridge will be scratched, leaving possible seven horse field that includes one maiden, one maiden winner last out. More like a NW1x than a G2

[sammy the sage]

Interesting tho...no "Baffert" or 4 "Baffert(s)".... :faint:

[Spiderman]

Interesting tho...no "Baffert" or 4 "Baffert(s)".... :faint:

Baffert's gravy train at Sunland has also ended with the cancellation of Sunland Derby.

At end of nominations for San Felipe, it stated, "Pending Late Mail." Could be a surprise entrant or two for $400k purse.

[illinoisbred]

Only eight nominated for San Felipe. Mor Spirit not among them:

AMERICAN DUBAI dk b/.c.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
BLACK OPS dk b/.g.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
FLEXIBILITY b.c.3 Klaravich Stables, Inc. & Lawrence Chad C. Brown
IFYOUSNOOZEYOULOSE b.c.3 Loooch Racing Stable, Inc. Peter R. Walder
SATURDAY SHOCKWAVE b.c.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
SUNNY RIDGE gr/ro.g.3 Dennis A. Drazin Jason Servis
TITANIUM POINT gr/ro.c.3 Sawyer Cattle Company Dan L. McFarlane
TUSK gr/ro.g.3 Flaxman Holdings, Ltd. H. Graham Motion
CLOSED THURSDAY, MARCH 3, 2016 WITH 8 NOMINATIONS*
*PENDING LATE MAIL

Sunny Ridge will be scratched, leaving possible seven horse field that includes one maiden, one maiden winner last out. More like a NW1x than a G2
This can't be correct. From what I've read,the probables are...
Mor Spirit
Danzing Candy
Smokey Image
Uncle Lino
Exaggerator
Cupid

[PowerUpPaynter]

Only eight nominated for San Felipe. Mor Spirit not among them:

AMERICAN DUBAI dk b/.c.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
BLACK OPS dk b/.g.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
FLEXIBILITY b.c.3 Klaravich Stables, Inc. & Lawrence Chad C. Brown
IFYOUSNOOZEYOULOSE b.c.3 Loooch Racing Stable, Inc. Peter R. Walder
SATURDAY SHOCKWAVE b.c.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
SUNNY RIDGE gr/ro.g.3 Dennis A. Drazin Jason Servis
TITANIUM POINT gr/ro.c.3 Sawyer Cattle Company Dan L. McFarlane
TUSK gr/ro.g.3 Flaxman Holdings, Ltd. H. Graham Motion
CLOSED THURSDAY, MARCH 3, 2016 WITH 8 NOMINATIONS*
*PENDING LATE MAIL

Sunny Ridge will be scratched, leaving possible seven horse field that includes one maiden, one maiden winner last out. More like a NW1x than a G2


obviously some type of mistake there. thats a different race and i jhave no clue what race

[Spiderman]

obviously some type of mistake there. thats a different race and i jhave no clue what race

List of nominees was copy/pasted from Santa Anita website. Hope that there is a mistake.

I found list by clicking Horsemen, Stakes Schedule, San Felipe Nominations. There was not a url at top of page to paste here.

[bks]

clearly some sort of mistake. From DRF today;

the San Felipe for 3-year-olds, which should have a star-studded line-up including Mor Spirit, Exaggerator, Smokey Image, Danzing Candy, and Uncle Lino, all five being current members of Derby Watch

[delsully]

Only eight nominated for San Felipe. Mor Spirit not among them:

AMERICAN DUBAI dk b/.c.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
BLACK OPS dk b/.g.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
FLEXIBILITY b.c.3 Klaravich Stables, Inc. & Lawrence Chad C. Brown
IFYOUSNOOZEYOULOSE b.c.3 Loooch Racing Stable, Inc. Peter R. Walder
SATURDAY SHOCKWAVE b.c.3 Richard Keith Rodney C. Richards
SUNNY RIDGE gr/ro.g.3 Dennis A. Drazin Jason Servis
TITANIUM POINT gr/ro.c.3 Sawyer Cattle Company Dan L. McFarlane
TUSK gr/ro.g.3 Flaxman Holdings, Ltd. H. Graham Motion
CLOSED THURSDAY, MARCH 3, 2016 WITH 8 NOMINATIONS*
*PENDING LATE MAIL

Sunny Ridge will be scratched, leaving possible seven horse field that includes one maiden, one maiden winner last out. More like a NW1x than a G2

Black Ops finished 9th in Alw race @ Oaklawn Friday.

[delsully]

San Felipe S. (gr. II)

Santa Anita Park , Saturday, March 12, 2016, Race 7
1 1/16mDirt$400,0003 yo3:00 PM (local)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 Uncle Lino (KY) Fernando Hernandez Perez 120 Gary Sherlock -
2 Danzing Candy (KY) Mike E. Smith 120 Clifford W. Sise, Jr. -
6 Smokey Image (CA) Victor Espinoza 120 Carla Gaines -
5 I Will Score (KY) Rafael Bejarano 120 Jerry Hollendorfer -
3 Mor Spirit (PA) Gary L. Stevens 124 Bob Baffert -
4 Cupid (KY) Martin Garcia 120 Bob Baffert -
7 Exaggerator (KY) Kent J. Desormeaux 122 J. Keith Desormeaux -

[CincyHorseplayer]

It's just startin to get fun ain't it?! I love this time of year.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

It's just startin to get fun ain't it?! I love this time of year.

No doubt. These are 2 really really good races. Not only for the Kentucky Derby Trail, but for the horseplayer as well.

You can make a case for every horse in the San Felipe. While there are only 7 entries, all 7 bring something to the table. Danzing Candy and Smokey Image dip their toes into the Derby waters, while Mor Spirit and Exaggerator look to establish themselves among the leading contenders in the Run for the Roses. Also can't overlook the recent Maiden winner in Cupid with Baffert and Martin Garcia as well as the King with Bejarano on board after a solid effort in the Robert B Lewis in I Will Score.

The Tampa Bay Derby just screams pace meltdown as half the field enlists E type runners. Really looking forward to Brody's Cause's 3YO debut as well as to see if Destin can move forward off of his Sam F Davis win last month. Throw in interesting newcomers to the fold in Outwork, Economic Model, and Tale of S'avall and this is a really solid 10 horse field. Riker is also intriguing with the trainer and jockey change, and I'm wondering if they change up tactics a bit after hitting the wall on the front end in the BC Juvenile?

Whoever wins these races will earn their spot in the starting gate of the Derby.

[arw629]

I hope saturday isn't a gold rail day like it is today!

[plainolebill]

I'd say Baffert is the King among that bunch of trainers. Certainly at this time of year.

Nice betting race with lots of horses that seem to want to be up front, Cupid looks like he can lay a little off the pace and I can make a bit of a case against both Exaggerator and Mor Spirit.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I'm looking forward to seeing how Danzing Candy does in here, his allowance win was impressive and despite wiring the field that day, he doesn't seem to need the lead and had a relaxed action while setting the pace. Like his chances at a modest price. I like Mor Spirit as well and think he's a good horse, but he doesn't necessarily need to win this one. It will be interesting to see how he does when drawn inside of horses.

Smokey Image is a nice horse as well, but I question how far he wants to go. He appears to have a high leg action while running and I have to wonder how much that takes out of him going forward as the distances get longer. I have a hard time seeing him get 10F with that high leg action and his running style. Probably when its said and done he'll be a miler turf horse.

[bks]

It's just startin to get fun ain't it?! I love this time of year.

Me too. The San Felipe is a great, great race despite just 7 entrants. Every one of them can win on paper.

Maybe I'm still Chromed up, but I like Smokey Image. He has proven he can adapt to any race shape, and that he can route. He's never faced this sort of pace scenarios going long, obviously, nor this sort of class, but he gives the impression of a colt who can run faster than his figures thus far. He was completely geared down for the last 3/32 of the race.

Here's the kicker for me: take a look at where the horse nearest to the pace in the Cal Cup Derby finished (Glory Bound). He was the second choice, and he swallowed up by a horse that came from last, and passed by another who sat right behind him.

Point being: it wasn't just that the track carried Smokey Image to a crushing win. He was utterly dominant on a fair track, setting honest fractions (23.2, 47.2, 1.11.3) completely on his own, but fractions which did in his closest pace rival.

At 6-1 or so, he's very much worth a swing.

The other realistic possibility is that Danzing Candy just runs them all off their feet. He won't be better than 3rd choice, right? He could be 7-2 or so. That's juicy for a horse that simply might be the most talented of these.

[f2tornado]

Tough wagering races for me as I don't have strong convictions in either. I'm leaning toward Danzing Candy and Exaggerator in the SP with Mor Spirit, Uncle Lino and Cupid underneath in the trifecta. Exaggerator fared well with Nyquist setting ridiculous fractions in the San Vicente. I suspect a little slower pace this time around which should suit the horse well. Danzing Candy has pace figures that are par for the race provided the extra half doesn't hinder. Hard to not like Mor Spirit but this appears to be a more game crew than the Robert B and the performance was not visually great to me (though others suggested otherwise). He should still be good enough to hit the board if not an outright win. The horse he beat, Uncle Lino, by only a little more than a length is back so one of those "if you use one might as well use the other" deals. I'm not convinced Cupid will be any faster in the stretch than others here but I don't ignore improving Baffert ponies posting bullets. I think Smokey Image is overmatched here and would put on the bottom of a super ticket.

[Michael]

Can't see how everyone thinks the San Felipe is a good betting race. :confused: Exaggerator seems head and shoulders. Guess, I can make a case for Smokey Image too. Going to toss Mor out of the picture.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Can't see how everyone thinks the San Felipe is a good betting race. :confused: Exaggerator seems head and shoulders. Guess, I can make a case for Smokey Image too. Going to toss Mor out of the picture.

Im looking to see if today confirms my suspicions that Mor Spirit is a 2nd tier horse.

[andtheyreoff]

Can't see how everyone thinks the San Felipe is a good betting race. :confused: Exaggerator seems head and shoulders. Guess, I can make a case for Smokey Image too. Going to toss Mor out of the picture.

If you like a horse that much, and he probably won't be the favorite, it is in fact an excellent betting race.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Can't see how everyone thinks the San Felipe is a good betting race. :confused: Exaggerator seems head and shoulders. Guess, I can make a case for Smokey Image too. Going to toss Mor out of the picture.

It is a great betting race because :7: Exaggerator is 5/2 ML, and before the Cali crowd gets done, he will be 7/2 or 9/2 and maybe even the 4th choice. I'm on Exaggerator like SRU is on DQs.

As for the Tampa Bay Derby, I like :8: Brody's Cause over :6: Riker, :7: Destin and :9: Tale of S'avall. Putting a little across the nose on :6: Riker.

[Robert Fischer]

Tampa Bay Derby

:3: OUTWORK - pointed to this race for a top barn. Way better than stablemate Destin and way better odds. Overlay.

:4: ECONOMIC MODEL - Needs a mediocre race to contend for a top spot, but that may well develop today. Irad Ortiz will do a much better job of judging the pace with timing and placement today in the Tampa Bay Derby, than Rosario did in Swale. Fundamentally sound gives a chance to 'trip into' contention at a Fair Price.

:8: BRODY'S CAUSE - Fits a pattern for hitting the board underneath. Underlay.

[delsully]

I'm all over :7: Exaggerator if he goes off near 4-1.

:4: Cupid has scratched.

[azeri98]

I like Economic Model in the TB derby and Exaggerator in the SF.

[Michael]

If you like a horse that much, and he probably won't be the favorite, it is in fact an excellent betting race.

Fair enough. I just consider that a good bet, and not an excellent betting race.

7/2 is about how much I like the horse.

[Raider]

Does the fact that SA closed down yesterday due to rain factor in? I will be going with a boxed exacta 3,6,7

[Tee]

Let's see what the :4: Economic Model has stretching out from 7/8's.

:2: Rafting should enjoy a nice trip imo.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Taking a stand against :8: and his top in the slop and deep closing style off a layoff. That 58 and change work raises the eyebrows though. :7: Destin had a lifetime top while making his 3rd start in a row and he apparently did it with ease. But he could regress slightly. At 7-1 I will be betting :2:.Making 2nd start off layoff and 2nd start at 2 turns he roughly equaled his Smooth Air figure and could make a big leap forward and I got him a P6 sitting off a 35 x 4 pace that looks wicked hot! Will play lightly some exactas with the aforementioned two and :10: in case he runs off.

[bks]

Was a distinct possibility :). And juicy.

[Robert Fischer]

Destin beat me today :ThmbUp:

[mostpost]

It would appear that Smokey Image is not the new California Chrome.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Danzing Candy and Destin.

Interesting.

Throws a huge loop into the Derby trail.

[burnsy]

Did not bet Tampa yesterday but I thought Danzig Candy and Mor Spirit ran good. Plenty left at the end for both and I thought Mor Spirit looked like he was prepping to go longer, he finished strong. Exaggerator ran ok, the rest looked like the second tier. The way Mor Spirit took the route made it look like a true prep.

[PowerUpPaynter]

What the heck happened to Brody's Cause

[Lemon Drop Husker]

What the heck happened to Brody's Cause

Didn't run a step. The 2 race prep theory took a major hit yesterday for Mr. Romans.

:3: Outwork was really impressive and can move forward off this one, but the :7: Destin was spectacular. Those two lapped the field.

Destin is now a big time major contender after that race.

[Robert Fischer]

What the heck happened to Brody's Cause

His record/form was extremely dressed-up entering the race.

In addition to his fortuitous lump-up style, he also fits a pattern of a type of runner that Romans often produces, strengthening that impression.

All things considered, he was expected to run a late 3rd or 4th yesterday, so he still ran worse than expected.
With Economic Model also a no-show, and forwardly placed speed holding fairly well, there's some hope that Brody's Cause was a bit against the grain.
-That's from yesterday's chart, I haven't re-watched the race to find him.

If he runs well in another prep he could still be back into that pattern of Roman's Runner for one of the triple crown races and come up and get 3rd or 4th in a big race down the road. He's not completely out (unless an injury report has surfaced)

[f2tornado]

I was impressed with both Destin and Danzing Candy. I even collected on the San Phillipe superfecta but did not bet it with authority. We will certainly know more about these two horses after their 9F preps but I had to add them to my assortment of Mohaymen exacta future wagers in the mean time. Unfortunately the exacta payouts were reduced by 2/3 after those preps while the straight up win odds got hacked in half. Both horses are both from female family 1 which has been hot in the Derby. Danzing Candy is from the Raise A Native sire line which has been red hot the past two decades. Destin is a Northern Dancer which has seemingly underperformed during that time. The key in the Santa Anita Derby has historically been a 1:48 or less time to find the KY Derby winner's circle and that's what I will be watching to see if I can bet against Mohaymen Derby day. I have enough on him now. It would appear Javier Castellano, Mike Smith, and Gary Stevens have locked in solid Derby mounts and those three are elite. Johnny V still has options depending on how Zulu runs next. Espinoza not going to have a live one this year the way it looks. Definitely seeing the picture coming together.

[SecretAgentMan]

The derby is looking wide open this year!

[sammy the sage]

wait for it...there IS sudden breaking news ;)

[SecretAgentMan]

wait for it...there IS sudden breaking news ;)



I was looking at this horse, but running 5 times at RP makes me nervous. I did like his closing skills at Oaklawn, but deep closers are hard to come by in the KD.

[Secondbest]

Danzing Candy was given a -59 by Dr Roman .Best number so far this year in a graded stakes

[SecretAgentMan]

Danzing Candy was given a -59 by Dr Roman .Best number so far this year in a graded stakes



We haven't had a horse wire the derby since War Emblem in 2002. I'm ready for these prep races to be over with already!

[PowerUpPaynter]

We haven't had a horse wire the derby since War Emblem in 2002. I'm ready for these prep races to be over with already!


Do we know for sure Danzing Candy is a 1 trick pony? Right to the front, hold on as long as he can?

[Kash$]

Nice prep for Mors Spirit..Wide,saved ground,finish with run..I'm all in the SA Derby

[Badactor]

#2 DANZING CANDY
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/Danzing%20Candy_zpsgkzyr4dc.jpg
#3 MOR SPIRIT
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/mor%20spirit_zpsao09eyhv.jpg
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/sanfelipeclubhouseturnDANZINGCANDY_zps9u7jywee.jpg
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/danzingcandygallopoutsanfelipe_zpsyosu8nmr.jpg
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/sanfelipegallopout_zpsu6fnxxtv.jpg
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/danzingcandysanfelipe_zpseymbzc1g.jpg

[CincyHorseplayer]

Best thing that happened this weekend is these races came back pretty fast from everybody who makes figures. Now we gotta horse race!

[PaceAdvantage]

#2 DANZING CANDY
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/Danzing%20Candy_zpsgkzyr4dc.jpg
#3 MOR SPIRIT
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/mor%20spirit_zpsao09eyhv.jpg
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/sanfelipeclubhouseturnDANZINGCANDY_zps9u7jywee.jpg
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/danzingcandygallopoutsanfelipe_zpsyosu8nmr.jpg
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/sanfelipegallopout_zpsu6fnxxtv.jpg
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/danzingcandysanfelipe_zpseymbzc1g.jpgNice pix Badactor! Thanks for sharing, and glad to see you back posting!

[Badactor]

http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/exaggerator_zps2m8wpmyr.jpg
http://i1074.photobucket.com/albums/w417/dell_yount/exaggeratorcloseup_zpsjq263seu.jpg
Although EXAGGERATOR ran 3rd @ 2-1 in the San Felipe...
he shows up in Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby futures @ 20-1.
The winner DANZING CANDY and runner-up MOR SPIRIT are listed @ 12-1.

[PaceAdvantage]

That second, cropped version of the original, is AWESOME!