formula's win bet size assistant

[formula_2002]

I'll offer a bet size that will beat the track takeout
It goes like this, if you like the horse for which a bet size is listed. that bet size, in the long run, size will outperform a flat bet.
This a work still in progress :cool:

in the below example. the bet on the 2 horse is 23 units, 52 units on the 4 etc.

All calculations are based on tote board action approximately 4 MTP

"Gulfstream
Race
1

Post
12:35

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$39,325 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 0 23 0 52 0 15 0 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
8

Post
6:45

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$8,827 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 0 37 19 29 0 0 14 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 0 0

[betovernetcapper]

OK, I'll bite. What is "bet size" & where does it show up on the tote screen?

[formula_2002]

"UK Lingfield
Race
3

Post
10:10

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,474 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 5 1 8 2 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 18

[formula_2002]

OK, I'll bite. What is "bet size" & where does it show up on the tote screen?


bottom two rows
one is PGNO (program number)
next row is bet size
bet size is the unit bet size which is suppose to outperform a flat bet

[formula_2002]

"UK Catterick Bridge
Race
4

Post
10:30

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,404 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 4 1 6 1 0 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20

[formula_2002]

"UK Lingfield
Race
4

Post
10:40

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,706 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 8 1 0 1 0 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22

[formula_2002]

results for last four races

$1 flat bet returned $13.10
$13.10/4 =3.275

Bet size total for the 4 races was $35, returning $119.60
119.60/35 = 3.41

best size outperformed flat bet by 3.41/3.275 = 4%

[formula_2002]

"UK Catterick Bridge
Race
6

Post
11:30

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,149 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 15 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

[formula_2002]

"UK Lingfield
Race
6

Post
11:39

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,256 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 1 1 3 0 15 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

[formula_2002]

"UK Catterick Bridge
Race
7

Post
12:00

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,202 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 0 2 25 52 13 4 0 35 4 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 155

[formula_2002]

"UK Lingfield
Race
7

Post
12:10

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,137 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 0 96 75 25 10 0 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 218

[formula_2002]

last 7 races 9% advantage over flat bet
races $1 bet return
return size
1 3.90 19 74.10
1 3.70 1 3.70
1 2.20 7 15.40
1 3.30 8 26.40
1 1.80 15 27.00
1 2.40 15 36.00
1 6.70 20 134.00
7 24.00 85 316.60
3.43 3.72
1.09

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
2

Post
12:53

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$10,477 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 145 1 1 19 20 1 35 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 223

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
2

Post
1:05

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$28,266 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 1 17 57 3 6 89 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 190

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
3

Post
1:23

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$14,127 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 5 50 10 26 31 24 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 159

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
4

Post
2:05

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$29,736 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 0 0 89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 89

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
5

Post
2:24

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$17,512 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0.13
bet 0 0 135 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 135

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
6

Post
2:54

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$37,908 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 0 35 14 5 2 2 1 71 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 156

[formula_2002]

after 13 races the flat bet outperformed the "bet size"

DO I WILL MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT

[formula_2002]

"Tampa Bay
Race
8

Post
3:58

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$35,215 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 1 13 0 6 39 38 6 0 38 10 0 0 0 0 0 0

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
8

Post
4:06

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$21,421 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 4 7 9 1 5 381 20 43 113 287 0 0 0 0 0 0

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
3

Post
4:24

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$13,712 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 6 4 6 49 14 57 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 136

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
9

Post
4:39

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$28,121 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 2 4 23 4 25 8 7 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 87

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
4

Post
4:53

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,389 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 11 3 9 69 0 3 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 101

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
5

Post
5:21

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,337 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 20 4 3 301 1 24 47 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 404

[formula_2002]

last 6 races since adjustment , 72% better than flat bet :sleeping:



races $1 bet return
return size
1 1.50 1 1.50
1 2.80 1 2.80
1 1.20 1 1.20
1 9.90 8 79.20
1 3.10 2 6.20
1 3.70 3 11.10
6 22.2 16 102
3.7 6.38
1.72

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
11

Post
5:40

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$73,719 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 242 415 3 7 98 19 0 5 9 1 150 500 0 0 0 0

[formula_2002]

"Turf Paradise
Race
8

Post
6:45

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,020 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 17 319 4 2 192 1 3 41 286 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 865

[formula_2002]

"SAF Vaal
Race
6

Post
8:35

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,285 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 19 43 34 17 3 69 98 66 54 86 11 61 4 12 0 0 578

[formula_2002]

"UK Carlisle
Race
2

Post
9:35

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,679 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 1 1 10 21 8 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63

[formula_2002]

after 10 races "bet size" advantage is 50%

races $1 bet return
return size
1 1.50 1 1.50 1.00
1 2.80 1 2.80 1.00
1 1.20 1 1.20 1.00
1 9.90 8 79.20 0.13
1 3.10 2 6.20 0.50
1 3.70 3 11.10 0.33
1 6.2 9 55.8 0.11
1 3.4 3 10.20 0.33
1 4.6 4 18.40 0.25
1 1.7 1 1.7 1.00
10 38.1 33 188.1
3.81 5.7
1.50

[formula_2002]

"SAF Vaal
Race
9

Post
10:30

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,737 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 66 12 35 37 35 4 4 8 7 45 26 0 133 67 0 0 479

[formula_2002]

"UK Carlisle
Race
4

Post
10:40

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$6,284 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 36 33 12 78 10 4 6 8 4 21 53 0 0 0 0 0 267

[formula_2002]

revised bet analysis

"UK Carlisle
Race
5

Post
11:15

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,408 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 8 0 1 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14

[formula_2002]

last 12 races based on the previous bet structure, the "bet" returned a 55% advantage over a flat bet.

the new bet structure hopes to improve on that!!

races $1 bet return
return size
1 1.50 1 1.50
1 2.80 1 2.80
1 1.20 1 1.20
1 9.90 8 79.20
1 3.10 2 6.20
1 3.70 3 11.10
1 6.2 9 55.8
1 3.4 3 10.20
1 4.6 4 18.40
1 1.7 1 1.7
1 5 8 40
1 12 13 156
12 55.1 54 384.10
4.59 7.11
1.55

[formula_2002]

"UK Southwell
Race
6

Post
12:00

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,857 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 5 2 1 3 0 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17

[formula_2002]

"UK Carlisle
Race
7

Post
12:25

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$2,525 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 1 1 7 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17

[formula_2002]

"UK Southwell
Race
7

Post
12:35

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,211 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 1 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
2

Post
1:05

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$25,092 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 1 1 1 3 1 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17

[formula_2002]

"Aqueduct
Race
2

Post
1:50

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$37,379 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 1 6 5 3 1 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23

[formula_2002]

I can not get my a handle on this

The last 5 plays with the old bet sys beat the flat bet by 14%
the new one did not beat the flat bets

[formula_2002]

previous system

"Gulfstream
Race
7

Post
3:35

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$32,345 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 14 11 3 2 31 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 62

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream
Race
10

Post
5:11

MTP
4

$1 Exacta Pool
$58,816 "
PGNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
bet 3 5 9 2 0 8 10 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48

[formula_2002]

I HAVE 22 RACES UNDER MY BELT WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM RETURNING 50% MORE THAN A FLAT BET

I'M MOVING ONTO A NEW THREAD WITH THAT SYSTEM STARTING WITH A NEW SET OF RACES.