Revisiting Bris Prime Power Figures?

[Flysofree]

I know they say it wins more when the top figure is 5 point higher and even greater when it's 10 points higher. Is there a published win percentage for the top 5 Bris Prime power numbers taken together? I thought I saw one study years ago, but can't find it now.
Only interested in the win percentage of the top 5 figures together.

[Dr Gonzo]

I know they say it wins more when the top figure is 5 point higher and even greater when it's 10 points higher. Is there a published win percentage for the top 5 Bris Prime power numbers taken together? I thought I saw one study years ago, but can't find it now.
Only interested in the win percentage of the top 5 figures together.

.8514

Hope this helps

Doc

[Flysofree]

Thanks, I thought it was 80%+ for dirt races..

[Dr Gonzo]

The percentages surely vary from track to track. Tracks that card a lot of maiden races, like Gulfstream, will show lower percentages due to FTS winning so many races.

Doc

[NorCalGreg]

.8514

Hope this helps

Doc


20 years ago, ANY rating, whose TOP-5 scored that high would have been impressive. But with today's small fields...you would expect an 85% strike rate with avg fields of a little over 7.

I did test an angle once--Bris Power-top rated horse--5-1+ ML ----huge loser. Once the public get's ahold of anything---forget the profitability of that info.

Here's a tip---check your OWN software's ratings--ratings that you are the only one to have---if they're any good--they'll test out better than Bris, maybe not by win %---but from an ROI standpoint.

[raybo]

20 years ago, ANY rating, whose TOP-5 scored that high would have been impressive. But with today's small fields...you would expect an 85% strike rate with avg fields of a little over 7.

I did test an angle once--Bris Power-top rated horse--5-1+ ML ----huge loser. Once the public get's ahold of anything---forget the profitability of that info.

Here's a tip---check your OWN software's ratings--ratings that you are the only one to have---if they're any good--they'll test out better than Bris, maybe not by win %---but from an ROI standpoint.

I agree. If you have a rating that hits 85+% of the winners with it's top 5 ranked horses, and it does not closely mirror Brisnet's Prime Power factors and weightings, it almost assuredly will produce a higher ROI than the BPP.

A personal, non-BPP mirrored rating, that hits 80+% of the winners, with it's top 4 ranked horses (plus ties of course), would probably be quite valuable as long as they don't also mirror the top 4 final odds ranked horses. Just off the top of my head, no data to back it up.

[NorCalGreg]

I've said, for awhile now...that anyone of normal intelligence, that's willing to work, can make a living betting horses. It's a simple fact--I have 1 "system" and at least 5 "methods"..that are profitable beyond a doubt. Methods require handicapping--Systems are automatic, follow the "rules", your there.

There are so many ways to find plays--plays that can easily be refined using normal handicapping--to generate a profit. That is the EASIEST part of the equation.
It gets tougher when you realize what this entails--the daily, monotonous absolute GRIND this "profession" will become. AND--if you can still handle the drudgery of this--there's another roadblock--one most of us fail miserably at--the absolute mental discipline this requires (money mgmt is part of that).
I only bring this up because I was thinking about Bris' Prime Power rating. So I went ahead and checked the Top Prime Power ratings--for all the races this past week, at Aqueduct. The only reason I chose AQ is because it's not an obscure second-tier track, where any results could be skewered by who knows what. I only recorded races that had entrants w/3 or more starts--in half the field. The rest just don't have the stats to be rateable, with any accuracy.

Here's what I found, if you had wagered on the Top Prime in every race :

OF 33 RATEABLE RACES--PRIME POWER HAD

13 WINS--39%

19 W/P -- 58%

AVG MUTUAL $5.82

BET-$66

RETURNED $75.57

ROI $1.15

This obviously will not hold up--in the long run. My point is--anyone willing to work, can apply basic handicapping, eliminations, etc--and increase these numbers to absolute profitability.
Here's where the maddening drudgery comes in--one would need to constantly run the numbers at all tracks, find the tracks, distances, class levels, Trainer/Jockey combinations most profitable..AND the price point for maximum profitability.

Anyone willing to do that--grind out a living--day after day---probably 8 hours a day MINIMUM, buried in sheets, books, numbers---and that's after you have your method is as automated as possible?

I made that statement previously--about anyone that REALLY wanted--can make a living at horse-betting.

This was just one example of how that can be done. BTW....I also checked DELTA and GGF. Delta was more profitable...GGF completely bombed with Prime Power.

As for me....think I'll continue my search for the profitable situation--one at a time.

✨NCG

[Flysofree]

Have you done any studies using different distances with Prime Power?
I have only read where they show dirt figures are better than turf with no mention of distance on Bris website, the last time I looked.

[Capper Al]

When one's in the zone, they can find the plays. Have you ever experienced losing the insight or having the game chance underneath you?

[Flysofree]

When one's in the zone, they can find the plays. Have you ever experienced losing the insight or having the game chance underneath you?
Of course...But not what I was asking?

[Capper Al]

Of course...But not what I was asking?

I agree that there are many ways to profit. I brought up being in the zone and things changing for a reason. One may not be able to count on a system working forever.

[NorCalGreg]

I agree that there are many ways to profit. I brought up being in the zone and things changing for a reason. One may not be able to count on a system working forever.

Very true, Al....a method...at least anything I've come up with--that's solidly profitable--has such few plays, that it might take 6 months to a year to have any confidence.

By that time--that method may no longer be a winner.

Just another maddening, but always interesting part of the horse-betting puzzle.