BG's Value Plays

[bgbootha]

Here we go for SA on Thursday!

r1 - Interesting race and a pass for me, the favorite is listed as a false favorite, but also as a SPDBET, the interesting thing here is that he has a 150.6 HBD early pace rating which is actually pretty slow for a horse to be flagged by a speedbet, but its because he has NO pace in the race with him. The rest of the field is sitting around 30-40 EPF which is slow but not really slow. I dont' like the price we are getting on the favorite in the ML.

r2 - The top two picks are the two ML favorites, likley pass unless line changes signficant

r3 - Big Price on the 3 JUST A GEM 20-1 ML is looking to move down in distance and is running against a bad field here IMO, shoudl outrun his ML, I woudl like anything close to 8-1 or better here.

r4 - Another ML overlay, just not as fun, the 2 GREELEY AWESOME shoudl be able to outrun his ML, coming off a long break but heading to SA should point toward improvment, I like him to hit the board and will be playing anything above 5-1

r5 - The 8 MYSTERIOUS MIRACLE is a SPDBET 201 HBD Early Pace figure against a field without anyone else over 50, the are coming down teh hill and he should have the lead, these downhills always play a little longer than the 6.5 they claim to be, but here is hoping he get a shot to hold on would like anything over 4-1

r6 - Top two picks are top two ML favorites, likely pass unless lines changes to show value.

r7 - The 6 PROCUREMENT has some value here, I like the longer race for this horse and he should be in the right spot coming around that final turn, he won't be on the lead but he should be there with the rest of them and has a sold 32.1 L8 value that puts him up there with the rest, anything over 5-1 is value IMO

r8 - short prices on top, but a SPDBET with the 5 MISS PURRFECT looks to get out to the front and shoudl easily with a 165.5 HBD EPF and no one else over 60, I am not sure its a winner, but value for sure anythign close to 10-1.

Good luck out there.

[bgbootha]

Looking for value at SA on Friday.

r1 - ML Overlay on the 6 TALE OF A CHAMPION, dropping in distance and has a solid late pace model should work well in this field, and should easily out perform his 15-1 ML.

r2 - Heavy solid favorite up top likely pass, I may look at the 1 BLUE LAW here, but I want more than 6-1

r3 - Solid favorites and short prices, likely pass

r4 - 6 CUDDLE ALERT is an overlay and will have the lead and is really the only pace in this race, coming off a decent layoff is a worry but if we can hang around that 4-1 ML there is value there.

r5 - Interesting race, seems pretty open, and I don't see a lot of value in a field that should probably be pretty close. The entire field is only separated by 14 points.

r6 - Solid field, 4 entries coming off a win, but I like the 7 GUTSY RULER to perform better than the 6-1 ML, should have a shot in this field and will likely be in the right position to make a run down the stretch.

r7 - Really intersting race, teh 1 CHOCOLATIER is interesting horse, won last time out at AQU but on a YL course, and coming from EUR I wonder how he will run on the SA turf. That being said, if we can get better than 5-1 I think I like the chances, this isn't a solid field by any means and he could out run them given the chance.

r8 - Three FTS, instant pass for me.

[bgbootha]

AQU

r1 - FTS, auto-pass

r2 - Top picks are favorites, likely pass

r3 - FTS, auto-pass

r4 - A nice solid race, we have the 6 HUMBOLDT N FROST as a false favorite and really like two good prices here in the 3 IDEAL QUALITY and the 2 NICHOLSON. The 3 has a solid 11 point overall advantage over the field and should be moving really well late to hit the board here at a nice price.

r5 - Top picks are favorites, likely pass

r6 - Top picks are favorites, likely pass

r7 - Top picks are favorites, likely pass. The 4 could have some value here, but I want 9/2 or better so we will have to wait and see.

r8 - Top picks are favorites, likely pass

r9 - GOTHAM - I love these derby preps just for the money that gets put on some of these horses. The ML looks pretty solid as there isn't much value here, but there is some interesting notes in the paceline which could produce some intersting value underneath. The 8 RALLYC RY will likely go out front along and I think they will likley try to rate the 2 SHAGAF, I don't know who else will go out with the 8 possibly the 1. IF the first 8 races show any kind of favor to the front I may pop a shot on th 8 if we can get 5-1 or better. The 6 may also have a shot to hit he board and will be in my exotics here.

r10 - A couple of nice prices up top here, the 1 THNXTOMYUNCLE and the 3 ANDREWS GOT ZIP both look like solid ML overlays.

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Santa Anita

r1. FTS on the downhill usually means pass, but if I can get anything close to 10-1 on the 1 BEST TWO MINUTES I will play him here.

r2 - Top picks are favorites, likely pass

r3 - FTS, auto-pass

r4 - Top picks are favorites, likely pass

r5 - I don't think anyone comes close to SONGBIRD here, but I do like hte value on the 2 LAND OVER SEA if anyone has a shot here.

r6 - The 10 SWISSARELLA is a SPDBET 142.7 early pace figure against a field with no one else over 40. I like his chances if he can get a soft pace.

r7 - False Favorite in the 7 ROYAL ALBERT HALL, and I like the 8 SPRING UP to outrun his ML and have some value.

r8 - Top picks are favorites, likely pass

r9 - False Favorite in the 8 LUCKY SHOES TO WIN, I do like the 1 HES A REAL KEEPTER to have a shot at this board as well as the 4 ZIM N THE MAILMAN that may have a nice shot at a decent price.

Good luck today.

[bgbootha]

Sounds good,

AQU

r1 - Favorites up top, likely pass

r2 - FTS galore auto pass

r3 -c

r4 - I have a ML Overlay indicated in the 2 WE DID, but I think I will pass on this race, the pace of this race is going to be nothing opening it back up and putting it back into the realm of the favorites.

r5 - The 3 AWESEOM GENT could be a solid play here comign off a win lat time out and should be moving well late in this field.

r6 - Big time ML overlay the 1 MAMBO AT THE GYM, this is a pretty weak fild, but this one looks to be set up well to hit the board at a price in this one.

r7 - Favorites up top, likely pass

r8 - Favorites up top, likely pass

r9 - The 5 FOXY POSSE is indicated as a ML Overlay, another horse coming off a bad race, but should be moving well toward the end of this one, could hit the board and add the nice price.

GPX

r1 - A weak field, but the 6 LOVE THAT KELLY is a ML Overlay, 2nd highest L8 value should put him good position on the turf

r2 - Two overlays here and a false even money ML favorite, the 3 SWEET IRISH ROSE has an impressive E2 advantage and should be in a good spot in this field hitting the turn, whiel the 7 WYO GIRL has a nice advantage (22.3 points) in HBD late pace figure and should be moving the best coming home.

r3 - FTS likley pass

r4 - False favorite, but likely pass still don't like the prices up top.

r5 - I like the 8 BELLY OF THE WHALE if we can get 8-1, coming off a long 242 day layoff, this is a solid horse data wise, may need this race to get back into it, but I am intersted to see how well he is moving down the stretch.

r6 - FTS likely pass

r7 - Favorites up top, LIkely pass

r8 - The 5 I WANDA WIN could be a nice price here, ML of 4-1 is about the right value, I would love 5-1 or better, but this is a wide open field in a short sprint.

r9 - FTS likely pass

r10 - The 2 MYSTICAL TERP shoudl have some value anywhere close to his 12-1 ML.

r11 - r7 - Favorites up top, LIkely pass

r12 - FTS likely pass

Good luck out there

[bgbootha]

A little Sam Houston on Monday

r2 - Nice long turf race, I like the 11 TAP SPIN but I need the 4-1 ML, also I think the 2 SHES NOT GUILTY could have some value close to 6-1 or higher as well. The 2 boasts a ++ pace figure in this race and should be near the lead coming home, boasting a 6.9 HBD L8 pace figure isn't huge but it may be enough to hold on if the pace isn't moving well.

r3 - Favorites up top, likely pass

r4 - the 3 is stretching out and should well outrun its morning line of 15-1, I would be happy with anything above 7-1 here.

r5 - FALSE FAVORITE in the 6 SALTY SONG, so we may find a price here, I will be looking for the 2 COOL IT BABY if we can get 4-1 or better, but I will also be playing the 8 JUNGLE RIVER who is a ML of 20-1 to hit the baord in this weak field. The 8 has the 2nd highest L8 Pace figure of 47.6, only the 5 has a higher figure in this race.

r6 - Favorites up top, likely pass

r7 - The 4 TULUM has a ML of 10-1 which is a gift here in this field, the 8 IN A STRAIT LINE is indicated as a FALSE FAVORITE as well, so this race could produce a price. Watch for the 4 coming on strong late on the turf and grabbing a piece of this one.

r8 - Another ML overlay here with the 9 IM A GONE PACON, pace figures could be interesting as the 8 will likely jump out and try to press, but even in this short 6f race I expect some movement from the back of the pack adn the 9 may have a shot at a nice price. The 6 FLYING FRENCHMAN could also ahve some value at 5-1 or better

r9 - Was excited for this race before the scratch of the 5 WHISKEY TALKING MS who had a nice 104 point Early Pace figure advantage over the field, but none the less he scratched and and I out of this one.

r10 - The 6 PAGETS is listed as a ML OVERLAY and again should be interesting moving late in this one, however the 8 WEST PLACE is another horse I will be looking here and has a ML of 12-1 and will likley easily have the lead here in this field, top E1 and E2 comparative value, an Early Pace figure of 122.5 without another entry over 50. Expect the 8 to get out early and not have much pressure, if the Travis can rate him a little he may hold, and he could easily hold onto to part of it. Give me 8-1 or better and I am happy.

r11 - Short Turf race with no pace = No thank you.