On Video Replay Handicapping

[VigorsTheGrey]

I read that many of you incorporate video reviews of prior races in your selection process. I have looked at replays sporadically but never developed this any further...How do approach your review process?

What are the best websites to obtain free replays? What are some things to look for? How many races back is it necessary to review?

When, in the handicapping process, should the review occur? Should each horse's races be reviewed?

Regards,
Vigors.

[VigorsTheGrey]

One replay website is:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/race-results

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I read that many of you incorporate video reviews of prior races in your selection process. I have looked at replays sporadically but never developed this any further...How do approach your review process?

What are the best websites to obtain free replays? What are some things to look for? How many races back is it necessary to review?

When, in the handicapping process, should the review occur? Should each horse's races be reviewed?

Regards,
Vigors.
I actually did a daily review of races for the last Saratoga meet and had great success with horses that I listed. http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=1969

I looked for the following things.

- Whether speed or off the pace horses had an advantage
- Whether the rail or another part of the track seemed more glib
- Horses of a particular style that had a problem that would have compromised their chances. For example a speed horse that broke in the air. A closer that got blocked before making its move.
- Exceptional races. For example, a horse that ran faster than anything else that day by a significant amount, expecially if it came against a quality field.
- Horses that ran well against a perceived bias. Speed horses that didn't fade badly on a day when closer's seemed to have the advantage. Horses that closed well on a day where the front speed seemed to have the advantage.
- Horses that were involved in a killing duel.
- Horses that had compromising trips but still kept trying. Wide around both turns for example.
- Horses that ran greenly; for example, didn't change leads
- Problems that may have compromised a horse but didn't result in a stewards action. For example, a horse that checked badly down the backstretch.
- Notably poor races. For example a horse that was lone front on a easy pace on a normal day and got caught.

What I look for is something out of the ordinary that might make the horse worth more or less consideration next out. I wouldn't call myself a trip handicapper at all, and in ten races a day at SAR I usually didn't make a note on more than four or five horses, and just making a note wasn't enough to blindly pick or dismiss a horse. It was just a way to provide a tickler.

I've known people who were very good at looking at a horse and making assessments about how likely it was to run well. But the fact is that 80% of horses look normally healthy, 10% don't look tip top, and 10% are exceptional. Same with races. 80% of the runners run as expected or run to their form, 10% run poorly, 10% are exceptional for some reason. And before it starts a detour, the percentages were not derived through empirical methods.

[ultracapper]

calracing.com for all California Tbred racing.

[EMD4ME]

I read that many of you incorporate video reviews of prior races in your selection process. I have looked at replays sporadically but never developed this any further...How do approach your review process?

What are the best websites to obtain free replays? What are some things to look for? How many races back is it necessary to review?

When, in the handicapping process, should the review occur? Should each horse's races be reviewed?

Regards,
Vigors.

Many legit and excellent horseplayers will tell you 5 different ways to skin a cat. So, please take this with a grain of salt.

To me, a race CAN NOT be wagered upon unless you truly know each horse. That means visually seeing for each horse, what each running line meant as an individual story. As the most successful player that I have ever met in my 35 years of horse racing has said: If you wan't to be a loser, cut corners. If you want to be a pro, know as much as you can, do the work, watch every replay of every horse all the time.

To answer your other question: Twin Spires has free replays. Calracing.com is free, RacetrackNetwork offers HD replays (THANK YOU KA$H for pointing them out to me, you're the man), NYRA.com has free NYRA replays.

That's who I utilize.

[Stillriledup]

Videotape used to be used to determine who is good and who is bad, but now, that's not good enough, you need to know if the 'good' replay is a horse who will fire that same shot TODAY. You used to be able to count on horses who fired monster shots to repeat those, but now, it's much harder to repeat a huge effort, you'll get slaughtered if you're just betting on 'impressive' tapes without trying to figure out if that horse won't take a step backward, it's the toughest part of tape interpreting.

Watching isn't good enough, you must properly interpret what that effort means going forward.

[whodoyoulike]

One replay website is:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/race-results

I also use this site. There was a previous thread a couple of years ago, listing a number of replay sites, look up P Matties (check spelling) in the roster heading. I recall he provided a number of replay sites and the other contributors were also good.

This Matties guy is the same guy who recently won a major tourney a couple weeks ago.

[EMD4ME]

Videotape used to be used to determine who is good and who is bad, but now, that's not good enough, you need to know if the 'good' replay is a horse who will fire that same shot TODAY. You used to be able to count on horses who fired monster shots to repeat those, but now, it's much harder to repeat a huge effort, you'll get slaughtered if you're just betting on 'impressive' tapes without trying to figure out if that horse won't take a step backward, it's the toughest part of tape interpreting.

Watching isn't good enough, you must properly interpret what that effort means going forward.

Excellent point SRU....That is one of the unique parts of handicapping, that if you are good at, can yield you BUCKS.

[deelo]

I like to run through the race replays if you're doing trip handicapping. The trip comments on PPs doesn't do justice for what actually occurred a lot of the time. As example, I've seen trips simply labeled "improved" that have meant anything from passing a few lame horses in the stretch up to flying fastest of em all from dead last to just miss.

Also, rather than just seeing the pace scenarios from the fractionals in the PPs, I like to glance quick and see exactly who was setting those races up. It can matter to me if the previous race was set up by a couple 80/1's dueling to the half or a 1/5 classier horse taking off w2w or everything in between that you can't see in the PP.

[Stillriledup]

Excellent point SRU....That is one of the unique parts of handicapping, that if you are good at, can yield you BUCKS.

The key is a 'pattern' of watching a horse and his career development, gotta figure out the context of the effort and how that effort sets up the animal for next time. When I'm watching a live event, I'm already 'planning' out (in my head) each horses next career move, when do I want to see him again, what distance, what surface, do I want a jock or blinker change, etc.

[EMD4ME]

The key is a 'pattern' of watching a horse and his career development, gotta figure out the context of the effort and how that effort sets up the animal for next time. When I'm watching a live event, I'm already 'planning' out (in my head) each horses next career move, when do I want to see him again, what distance, what surface, do I want a jock or blinker change, etc.

Great minds think alike! That's why I like Formulator. I take notes on a zillion things....and I mean a zillion. No way our brains can remember ALL those details.

I even asked Lonnie to add another line to my Formulator but they couldn't understand my request. 1 line was just not enough for me.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Thank you so much for placing such detailed info on this thread...It really helps and you are right...one really must do the work to be successful, and "knowing the horse" in my mind, means watching the video replay of at least the last race...Now I know what to look for and what to think about moving forward. Thanks again!

[whodoyoulike]

Btw, I've been using replays for years and could mention a number of things to be aware of when watching. But, you seem to be new to this sport and video watching. My initial suggestion is to watch races on websites such as CalRacing.com or NYRA.com since they're FREE. Watch as many as you can (both pan and head on views) and soon you'll see the positioning and strategies used by the jockeys and running styles of the horses. When you can get a feel for when the race is too fast or slow for the distance, you'll realize the value of replays and will learn the game faster. It also helps if you utilize the pp's in conjunction with your viewing but it's not always necessary.

[mrhorseplayer]

I watch replays of most every race in southern cal or the circuit IM currently playing have done really well with horses coming off my watch list.

[Racetrack Playa]

Gulstreams website has a nice replay page , One big video of each day , I love It. Nice and Easy

[mrhorseplayer]

I use twinspires or calracing.com for replays

there is a video called trip handicapping from dan illman that could be helpful for starters.

I also look for horses who had easy trips that will be good bet against next out along with the usual things to look for like stuff you dont think will be revealed in the runlines or comments or anything that might give you an edge with a future bet.

[thaskalos]

I read that many of you incorporate video reviews of prior races in your selection process. I have looked at replays sporadically but never developed this any further...How do approach your review process?

What are the best websites to obtain free replays? What are some things to look for? How many races back is it necessary to review?

When, in the handicapping process, should the review occur? Should each horse's races be reviewed?

Regards,
Vigors.

IMO...your replay viewing must be accompanied by accurate speed and pace figures...otherwise you run the risk of wagering on a bunch of slow horses just because they had disadvantageous prior trips. A horse looks mighty impressive on replay when it makes a 4-wide move around the final turn...but the PACE of that fraction of the race will tell you how impressive this move really was.

[outofthebox]

One track you absolutely have to watch replays for is Delta Downs. Don't know why but the chart caller there misses many things. Prime example Feb 27 6th race # 5 Won Again was left at least 7-10 lengths at start. Comment line " no factor"...Replays for free at Deltadownsracing.com.

[mrhorseplayer]

IMO...your replay viewing must be accompanied by accurate speed and pace figures...otherwise you run the risk of wagering on a bunch of slow horses just because they had disadvantageous prior trips. A horse looks mighty impressive on replay when it makes a 4-wide move around the final turn...but the PACE of that fraction of the race will tell you how impressive this move really was.




is that an optical illusion?

[thespaah]

I read that many of you incorporate video reviews of prior races in your selection process. I have looked at replays sporadically but never developed this any further...How do approach your review process?

What are the best websites to obtain free replays? What are some things to look for? How many races back is it necessary to review?

When, in the handicapping process, should the review occur? Should each horse's races be reviewed?

Regards,
Vigors.
I will use trips as one aspect. Therefore, replays are a valuable tool.

[thespaah]

Many legit and excellent horseplayers will tell you 5 different ways to skin a cat. So, please take this with a grain of salt.

To me, a race CAN NOT be wagered upon unless you truly know each horse. That means visually seeing for each horse, what each running line meant as an individual story. As the most successful player that I have ever met in my 35 years of horse racing has said: If you wan't to be a loser, cut corners. If you want to be a pro, know as much as you can, do the work, watch every replay of every horse all the time.

To answer your other question: Twin Spires has free replays. Calracing.com is free, RacetrackNetwork offers HD replays (THANK YOU KA$H for pointing them out to me, you're the man), NYRA.com has free NYRA replays.

That's who I utilize.
Monmouth offers free replays as well.
So does Woodbine.
In fact, many if not most the major racing jurisdictions offer free replays.

[thespaah]

Videotape used to be used to determine who is good and who is bad, but now, that's not good enough, you need to know if the 'good' replay is a horse who will fire that same shot TODAY. You used to be able to count on horses who fired monster shots to repeat those, but now, it's much harder to repeat a huge effort, you'll get slaughtered if you're just betting on 'impressive' tapes without trying to figure out if that horse won't take a step backward, it's the toughest part of tape interpreting.

Watching isn't good enough, you must properly interpret what that effort means going forward.
Any information can be hazardous to the budget if used improperly

[woodbinepmi]

Monmouth offers free replays as well.
So does Woodbine.
In fact, many if not most the major racing jurisdictions offer free replays.
You can watch Woodbine replays on Youtube in HD

[Kash$]

You can watch Woodbine replays on Youtube in HD

Also on there website Woodbine Replays HD can be seen.

[Stillriledup]

Any information can be hazardous to the budget if used improperly

What's your point?

[InsideTheRaces.com]

The comments in the PP can be wrong. You need to watch the replays. I owned a horse who was on the lead in the stretch and was beaten by a nose.
The PP"s said up late for second, best of the rest. Don't trust the comment lines. If you don't do your homework you're betting blind. The timings of the races can be wrong and the comments on the race can be wrong. Do the hard work and don't take any shortcuts and maybe you can show a profit.
If you're not watching replays you're betting blind.

[thespaah]

What's your point?
My comment speaks for itself..
But since you feel the need to be inquisitive..
Instead of a video, let's make it a box of dynamite...In the hands of an expert, dynamite is a useful tool...In the hands of a person who doesn't have a clue.....you get the picture now?

[Stillriledup]

My comment speaks for itself..
But since you feel the need to be inquisitive..
Instead of a video, let's make it a box of dynamite...In the hands of an expert, dynamite is a useful tool...In the hands of a person who doesn't have a clue.....you get the picture now?

Let me clarify, I get the comment but wasnt sure why it was directed at my post.

[thespaah]

Let me clarify, I get the comment but wasnt sure why it was directed at my post.
Did you not ask me "what's your point"?

[Stillriledup]

Did you not ask me "what's your point"?

The point I was asking about is what specifically about my post made you comment like that, you could have responded that way to anyone, I wanted to know what specifically I said that made you make that point.

[thespaah]

The point I was asking about is what specifically about my post made you comment like that, you could have responded that way to anyone, I wanted to know what specifically I said that made you make that point.
Look. Now you are just being aggravating...
Here is the exchange to which I responded.

Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Videotape used to be used to determine who is good and who is bad, but now, that's not good enough, you need to know if the 'good' replay is a horse who will fire that same shot TODAY. You used to be able to count on horses who fired monster shots to repeat those, but now, it's much harder to repeat a huge effort, you'll get slaughtered if you're just betting on 'impressive' tapes without trying to figure out if that horse won't take a step backward, it's the toughest part of tape interpreting.

Watching isn't good enough, you must properly interpret what that effort means going forward.
Here is my reply....In it, I was essentially posting in aggreement

Any information can be hazardous to the budget if used improperly
Is there a problem here?

[Stillriledup]

Look. Now you are just being aggravating...
Here is the exchange to which I responded.

Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Videotape used to be used to determine who is good and who is bad, but now, that's not good enough, you need to know if the 'good' replay is a horse who will fire that same shot TODAY. You used to be able to count on horses who fired monster shots to repeat those, but now, it's much harder to repeat a huge effort, you'll get slaughtered if you're just betting on 'impressive' tapes without trying to figure out if that horse won't take a step backward, it's the toughest part of tape interpreting.

Watching isn't good enough, you must properly interpret what that effort means going forward.
Here is my reply....In it, I was essentially posting in aggreement

Any information can be hazardous to the budget if used improperly
Is there a problem here?

There's no problem, but your response could have been directed at anyone, I thought there might be something specific that I wrote that got you to respond that way. No harm no foul.

[Nitro]

The comments in the PP can be wrong. You need to watch the replays. I owned a horse who was on the lead in the stretch and was beaten by a nose.
The PP"s said up late for second, best of the rest. Don't trust the comment lines. If you don't do your homework you're betting blind. The timings of the races can be wrong and the comments on the race can be wrong. Do the hard work and don't take any shortcuts and maybe you can show a profit.
If you're not watching replays you're betting blind.
As far as I’m concerned you can watch all the replays you want. In fact, if you’re really into it why not just use your DVR and tape all the races to your heart’s content.

Unfortunately, the replays just like the past performances ONLY tell you what happened. They don’t forecast what’s going to happen. Where does it tell you anywhere how a horse has come out of a race, especially if it had some difficulties? You’re right! NO WHERE!

Making subjective assumptions just because a horse ran into trouble doesn’t mean its going to fire next time out. In fact, many horses just have a running style that gets them into trouble time and again. Getting into trouble can also cause physical ailments that are completely unknown to the average horse player.

I guess I must be betting blind because I don’t use the past to predict the future. I’d rather rely on the here-and-now to determine if a horse is ready and in the race for purposes of doing well. I’ll take following the money over ANY form of handicapping method.
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[VigorsTheGrey]

Yes I agree but the devil is in the details...what can small fries like myself do without a complex software program AND in the last 4 minutes prior to post time? All I can do is find the lowest prices...where the money is going to...or else try to spot a long to medium shot that drops fast in the last few minutes or some horse that gets bet down far below morning line. Or looking at exacta will-pays to see what combo is getting hammered...other than that what can I do.....following the money gets me on a low price most of the time...a sure way to the poor house...what am I missing here? I know you say follow the money but I don't have your software or any of the other little details to your method...so I am somewhat rebuffed. :confused:

Give me something tangible ...I'd like to try it out..Vig.

[ReplayRandall]

As far as I’m concerned you can watch all the replays you want. In fact, if you’re really into it why not just use your DVR and tape all the races to your heart’s content.

Unfortunately, the replays just like the past performances ONLY tell you what happened. They don’t forecast what’s going to happen. Where does it tell you anywhere how a horse has come out of a race, especially if it had some difficulties? You’re right! NO WHERE!

Making subjective assumptions just because a horse ran into trouble doesn’t mean its going to fire next time out. In fact, many horses just have a running style that gets them into trouble time and again. Getting into trouble can also cause physical ailments that are completely unknown to the average horse player.

I guess I must be betting blind because I don’t use the past to predict the future. I’d rather rely on the here-and-now to determine if a horse is ready and in the race for purposes of doing well. I’ll take following the money over ANY form of handicapping method.
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Why don't you just say you're a tote-board analyzer, instead of the negative comments to those who watch/notate replays and scrutinize past performances via computer programs or pen and paper? Nitro, I'm happy for you that you've found a successful method to find profit. Be happy for others who've found success with whatever means they use, in a very TOUGH game, to show net profitability....

[ultracapper]

As far as I’m concerned you can watch all the replays you want. In fact, if you’re really into it why not just use your DVR and tape all the races to your heart’s content.

Unfortunately, the replays just like the past performances ONLY tell you what happened. They don’t forecast what’s going to happen. Where does it tell you anywhere how a horse has come out of a race, especially if it had some difficulties? You’re right! NO WHERE!

Making subjective assumptions just because a horse ran into trouble doesn’t mean its going to fire next time out. In fact, many horses just have a running style that gets them into trouble time and again. Getting into trouble can also cause physical ailments that are completely unknown to the average horse player.

I guess I must be betting blind because I don’t use the past to predict the future. I’d rather rely on the here-and-now to determine if a horse is ready and in the race for purposes of doing well. I’ll take following the money over ANY form of handicapping method.
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Don't need to record them. The replays are out there to watch to our heart's content.

[Nitro]

Yes I agree but the devil is in the details...what can small fries like myself do without a complex software program AND in the last 4 minutes prior to post time? All I can do is find the lowest prices...where the money is going to...or else try to spot a long to medium shot that drops fast in the last few minutes or some horse that gets bet down far below morning line. Or looking at exacta will-pays to see what combo is getting hammered...other than that what can I do.....following the money gets me on a low price most of the time...a sure way to the poor house...what am I missing here? I know you say follow the money but I don't have your software or any of the other little details to your method...so I am somewhat rebuffed. :confused:

Give me something tangible ...I'd like to try it out..Vig.
I realize that and the best tangible material I can offer you are my pre-race selections. I have spent thousands of dollars over last few years acquiring not only the software, but the support I needed to grasp the entire concept of the betting patterns which the Tote analysis provides. I am certainly not going undermine my mentor’s trust by divulging his incredible work. I have been rewarded many times over by believing in something that I was initially very skeptical of. Right now all I can do is suggest that there’s a better way to play the game. :ThmbUp:
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[Nitro]

Why don't you just say you're a tote-board analyzer, instead of the negative comments to those who watch/notate replays and scrutinize past performances via computer programs or pen and paper? Nitro, I'm happy for you that you've found a successful method to find profit. Be happy for others who've found success with whatever means they use, in a very TOUGH game, to show net profitability....
I won’t say I’m a tote board analyzer because the Tote analysis I use does the analyzing. I just view the resulting betting patterns and play accordingly.

My comments may appear negative in your mind, but why would I endorse something that I believe it totally impractical to the realities of playing the game? Maybe you or others here could tell us based on what they witnessed in today’s 8th race at Santa Anita how Seattle Serenade is going to run next time out? I’d love to see that!

I can confidently demonstrate my abilities and if others whom you deem to be supposedly happy with their game can demonstrate theirs, then more power to them. But to be perfectly honest, you know as well as I do they are certainly in the minority. The purpose of my comments is simply to let those know who are not so lucky to perhaps look at an alternative way of playing an Insider's game from an Outsider’s perspective.
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[no breathalyzer]

I won’t say I’m a tote board analyzer because the Tote analysis I use does the analyzing. I just view the resulting betting patterns and play accordingly.

My comments may appear negative in your mind, but why would I endorse something that I believe it totally impractical to the realities of playing the game? Maybe you or others here could tell us based on what they witnessed in today’s 8th race at Santa Anita how Seattle Serenade is going to run next time out? I’d love to see that!

I can confidently demonstrate my abilities and if others whom you deem to be supposedly happy with their game can demonstrate theirs, then more power to them. But to be perfectly honest, you know as well as I do they are certainly in the minority. The purpose of my comments is simply to let those know who are not so lucky to perhaps look at an alternative way of playing an Insider's game from an Outsider’s perspective.
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:lol: WHY DON'T YOU LET US KNOW WHEN YOUR OVER PRICED POS SOFTWARE GOES IN A SLUMP AND CAN'T PICK A WINNER FOR WEEKS

[Nitro]

:lol: WHY DON'T YOU LET US KNOW WHEN YOUR OVER PRICED POS SOFTWARE GOES IN A SLUMP AND CAN'T PICK A WINNER FOR WEEKS
Great come-back there Breathalyzer! :lol:
I agree! As a $2 bettor like yourself the tote analysis would be well beyond your budget. But you know what they say, “You get what you pay for”!
In the meantime I wouldn’t hold your Breathalyzer waiting for a tote software slump. Besides I don’t look for winners. I look for winning plays. There’s a BIG difference!

[VigorsTheGrey]

Great come-back there Breathalyzer! :lol:
I agree! As a $2 bettor like yourself the tote analysis would be well beyond your budget. But you know what they say, “You get what you pay for”!
In the meantime I wouldn’t hold your Breathalyzer waiting for a tote software slump. Besides I don’t look for winners. I look for winning plays. There’s a BIG difference!

Nitro, I know you don't mean this as a teaser question, but that is exactly what it is....Once again, the devil is in the details, and once again you have omitted those essential details....winning plays....hmmmmm....can you be....more....specific here? And with regard to how you present your pick to us in the A, B over the C, D, E or 1, 2, over the 3, 4, 5 choices....with the injunction to "use as you want to" This is perplexing.

You seem to post any winning returns to "BOXES" and straight win wagers. Boxing five horse can be quite expensive and I don't know it you are suggesting to part wheel the two top choices in exotics or to just have 5 horse box exotics....

Do you even show your 3 lower tier choices as win returns? Sure, if I place 5 horses in all these combinations race after race, some are going to hit regularly...so it is hard to gauge if it is your method or just your luck that is successful....

We still have to make choices about how to "use" the 5 "choices" in your pick format...but this can just as easily lead to the poor house as any where else....Vig

[no breathalyzer]

Great come-back there Breathalyzer! :lol:
I agree! As a $2 bettor like yourself the tote analysis would be well beyond your budget. But you know what they say, “You get what you pay for”!
In the meantime I wouldn’t hold your Breathalyzer waiting for a tote software slump. Besides I don’t look for winners. I look for winning plays. There’s a BIG difference!


all i did is answer back with the same quality that you provided ... you have no fcking clue how much i bet and its going to stay that way .... i'm sharp enough to do my own tote analysis.. and guess what its free :lol: .. to be a winner you gotta use all the tools in the box and know when to apply them. One trick pony capers are weak!

Anyways no hard feeling gl to you

[EMD4ME]

all i did is answer back with the same quality that you provided ... you have no fcking clue how much i bet and its going to stay that way .... i'm sharp enough to do my own tote analysis.. and guess what its free :lol: .. to be a winner you gotta use all the tools in the box and know when to apply them. One trick pony capers are weak!

Anyways no hard feeling gl to you


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[ultracapper]

Keep it up Vigors and you're going to get the same old........"Work on your reading comprehension" or his old standby....."Get a book".

[EMD4ME]

Keep it up Vigors and you're going to get the same old........"Work on your reading comprehension" or his old standby....."Get a book".

Is NITRO friends with Whodoyoulike? :lol: :lol: :lol:

[VigorsTheGrey]

Keep it up Vigors and you're going to get the same old........"Work on your reading comprehension" or his old standby....."Get a book".

I mean I can see RacetackPlaya's format of 1 with 234...I can construct something reasonable out of that:

1 to win/ place flat bet YES

1 / 2 3 4 ex box YES

1/ 2 3 4/ 2 3 4 tri Yes

1 /2 3 4/2 3 4/2 3 4 Maybe
---------------------------------------

But with the 1 2/ 3 4 5?


Bet 1 and 2 horse to win flat OK

Bet 1 and 2 horse ex box

Bet 1 horse part wheel ex box w/ 2 3 4 5

Bet 2nd horse part wheel ex box 1 3 4 5

Bet 1 horse tri part wheel in all three holes w/ 2 3 4 5

Bet 2 horse tri part wheel in all three holes w/1 3 4 5

Bet 1 horse super part wheel in all four holes w/ 2 3 4 5

Bet 2 horse super part wheel in all four holes w/1 3 4 5

There are a lot of combinations here! I wonder how much all these bet add up to? I don't know if this is the way to go? But what do I know?

[ultracapper]

You're not the first one to go here.

He's in his own little world.

[VigorsTheGrey]

You're not the first one to go here.

He's in his own little world.

And yet, this just in from Playa:

PICK :52/147 Turfway 4



7254=

tri $1005.50
sup $6743.00
oh happy day
__________________
Don't Believe the Hype!

[VigorsTheGrey]

I mean I can see RacetackPlaya's format of 1 with 234...I can construct something reasonable out of that:

1 to win/ place flat bet YES

1 / 2 3 4 ex box YES

1/ 2 3 4/ 2 3 4 tri Yes

1 /2 3 4/2 3 4/2 3 4 Maybe
---------------------------------------

But with the 1 2/ 3 4 5?


Bet 1 and 2 horse to win flat OK

Bet 1 and 2 horse ex box

Bet 1 horse part wheel ex box w/ 2 3 4 5

Bet 2nd horse part wheel ex box 1 3 4 5

Bet 1 horse tri part wheel in all three holes w/ 2 3 4 5

Bet 2 horse tri part wheel in all three holes w/1 3 4 5

Bet 1 horse super part wheel in all four holes w/ 2 3 4 5

Bet 2 horse super part wheel in all four holes w/1 3 4 5

There are a lot of combinations here! I wonder how much all these bet add up to? I don't know if this is the way to go? But what do I know?

Playa would have had to bet all these combination to hit that super with fashion city at turfway 4th. I wonder what the min outlay is for all these bets?

[ultracapper]

Stick to reading Thask when it comes to reality at the race track. You'll then have a fighting chance.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Stick to reading Thask when it comes to reality at the race track. You'll then have a fighting chance. Thanks I tried following their picks in real time and attempted to fashion some bets using them....but it quickly devolved into an unsustainable misadventure....Will take your advice...

[ultracapper]

I'll give this to Nitro. He has stated many times that he doesn't bet all his posts. He has stated that many times. He has never told us which ones he's bet, or how he's bet them, and he does take credit for every one of his posts that his numbers finish in some kind of incomprehensible order, but he has never said he bet, or won, on any of them.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I'll give this to Nitro. He has stated many times that he doesn't bet all his posts. He has stated that many times. He has never told us which ones he's bet, or how he's bet them, and he does take credit for every one of his posts that his numbers finish in some kind of incomprehensible order, but he has never said he bet, or won, on any of them.

Playa said 10c super outlay for $2.40...I am happy for him!

In the case of his 52/174 turning into

[VigorsTheGrey]

Playa said 10c super outlay for $2.40...I am happy for him!

In the case of his 52/174 turning into

QUOTE=ultracapper]I'll give this to Nitro. He has stated many times that he doesn't bet all his posts. He has stated that many times. He has never told us which ones he's bet, or how he's bet them, and he does take credit for every o[ne of his posts that his numbers finish in some kind of incomprehensible order, but he has never said he bet, or won, on any of them.[/QUOTE]

Playa said 10c super outlay for $2.40...I am happy for him!

In the case of his 52/174 turning into 7254 winning super ticket for $2.40.

He could concievably box (52)(17) for $2.40, then box (52)(74) for $2.40 and hit for a min investment of $4.80...that makes some sense....I guess that is a reasonable place to start the bet and one could go deeper if one chooses...

So under the A B / C D E senario...it would start (AB)(CD) box and (AB)(DE) box...so

Dutch (AB) to win $4 2 bets @ $2
Exacta box (AB) $2 1 bet @ $1
Tri Box (AB) (CD) $12 24bets @ .50
Tri Box (AB) (DE) $12 24 bets @ .50
Super Box (AB) (CD) $2.40 24 bets @ .10
Super Box (AB) (DE) $2.40 24 bets @ .10
--------------------------------------------------------------
$34.80 min.

[ultracapper]

Seriously Vigors, when somebody's posting 5 horses, with very little direction, I have found it's just best to let them play their own game.

I've got plenty of work to do on my game, which constructive discussions are the best help. Post/brag/post/brag has never gotten me far.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Seriously Vigors, when somebody's posting 5 horses, with very little direction, I have found it's just best to let them play their own game.

I've got plenty of work to do on my game, which constructive discussions are the best help. Post/brag/post/brag has never gotten me far.

I'm just trying to figure out what I could afford to do under that betting senario... AB /CDE...I would have to leave the trifectas out...How would I bet if I had 2 keys and 3 second tier contenders?

[ultracapper]

I'm just trying to figure out what I could afford to do under that betting senario... AB /CDE...I would have to leave the trifectas out...How would I bet if I had 2 keys and 3 second tier contenders?

Skip W/P and Exactas. If you're selecting that deep, you have to play that deep.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Skip W/P and Exactas. If you're selecting that deep, you have to play that deep.

Ah yes! I understand...thank you!

[Racetrack Playa]

I don't bet everyrace the same , but I do post the same ,pretty much every race ,
a/b/cde boxed = $9 @ $1 tri // $2.40 sup @ .10
very simple caveman style

When betting (Aus) my CDE s, are often great wps bets , due to massive field size, but at parx or santa anita you may get $2.10, you know what I mean

,

I am a Longshot Player and Turf fan

I play as cheap as I can covering my #s, $9 my tri is in , lots of patience , the 10 center is a great bet imh, I'm only playing those 5 numbers ,
I rarely bet more than $10 into the super pool when i bet it ,lots of jabs wps when it counts , but as bankroll changes so do bets , I Landed a Haymaker the other day , I' m Considering taking a break , again , I wish I could be more clear , But I can't

There is a ton a stuff in the Forum to read about superfectas , good luck
with those 4th place clunkers, or favs running out, either or I hope you get um

Watching replays is invaluable , as is BR managment

[SG4]

As far as I’m concerned you can watch all the replays you want. In fact, if you’re really into it why not just use your DVR and tape all the races to your heart’s content.

Unfortunately, the replays just like the past performances ONLY tell you what happened. They don’t forecast what’s going to happen. Where does it tell you anywhere how a horse has come out of a race, especially if it had some difficulties? You’re right! NO WHERE!

Making subjective assumptions just because a horse ran into trouble doesn’t mean its going to fire next time out. In fact, many horses just have a running style that gets them into trouble time and again. Getting into trouble can also cause physical ailments that are completely unknown to the average horse player.

I guess I must be betting blind because I don’t use the past to predict the future. I’d rather rely on the here-and-now to determine if a horse is ready and in the race for purposes of doing well. I’ll take following the money over ANY form of handicapping method.
.
.

How do you know you're not just following the money of sharp trip handicappers who are betting a horse down off a hidden tough trip they found watching replays? Is there anything particular in your methods that assures you're betting "insider" money, which is what I believe your analysis is based on, correct? Maybe you've been piggybacking off those using past results as a guide all along :) Is your success with this method only/mainly in Hong Kong or does it work in the states too?

[thespaah]

As far as I’m concerned you can watch all the replays you want. In fact, if you’re really into it why not just use your DVR and tape all the races to your heart’s content.

Unfortunately, the replays just like the past performances ONLY tell you what happened. They don’t forecast what’s going to happen. Where does it tell you anywhere how a horse has come out of a race, especially if it had some difficulties? You’re right! NO WHERE!

Making subjective assumptions just because a horse ran into trouble doesn’t mean its going to fire next time out. In fact, many horses just have a running style that gets them into trouble time and again. Getting into trouble can also cause physical ailments that are completely unknown to the average horse player.

I guess I must be betting blind because I don’t use the past to predict the future. I’d rather rely on the here-and-now to determine if a horse is ready and in the race for purposes of doing well. I’ll take following the money over ANY form of handicapping method.
.
.
Notwithstanding the apparent argumentative, almost combative response, I have some questions for you...
Where is it found on the standard past performance pages we normally buy how a horse came out of a race?
Where in a ( I'm almost laughing at the contradiction) set of PAST performances does a prediction of future results appear?
How is it you have been able to become an 'insider' so that you can arrogantly declare that you have more information than the 'average horse player"...What are we? The great unwashed masses?

[thespaah]

Why don't you just say you're a tote-board analyzer, instead of the negative comments to those who watch/notate replays and scrutinize past performances via computer programs or pen and paper? Nitro, I'm happy for you that you've found a successful method to find profit. Be happy for others who've found success with whatever means they use, in a very TOUGH game, to show net profitability....
Who the is that guy?
Comes on here and basically spits on those of us who use video analysis as one the tools of handicapping.
Of all the nerve.

[thespaah]

I won’t say I’m a tote board analyzer because the Tote analysis I use does the analyzing. I just view the resulting betting patterns and play accordingly.

My comments may appear negative in your mind, but why would I endorse something that I believe it totally impractical to the realities of playing the game? Maybe you or others here could tell us based on what they witnessed in today’s 8th race at Santa Anita how Seattle Serenade is going to run next time out? I’d love to see that!

I can confidently demonstrate my abilities and if others whom you deem to be supposedly happy with their game can demonstrate theirs, then more power to them. But to be perfectly honest, you know as well as I do they are certainly in the minority. The purpose of my comments is simply to let those know who are not so lucky to perhaps look at an alternative way of playing an Insider's game from an Outsider’s perspective.
.
.
Look, you have the secret decoder ring. Fine.
None of us other poor schumcks have it.. so we're just a bunch of stupid bastards slugging it out so we can make a few bucks profit off a race card...Tell me there, oh great one...What's it to ya?
Who the hell are you to come on here and with your smug attitude claim you have the crystal ball that allows you to make money betting the races and then have the gall to say "I can't divulge"....Then why tell us about it in the first God damned place?!!!!
Really....You don't even do your own analysis. You said so yourself....
" the Tote analysis I use does the analyzing."
I may get a slap on the back of the head from PA or Cj for my comments, but I don't care.
I am not going to sit here and allow you to make these veiled and arrogant comments toward others just because they happen to use a different method of handicapping

[ReplayRandall]

Who the is that guy?
Comes on here and basically spits on those of us who use video analysis as one the tools of handicapping.
Of all the nerve.

Don't worry, he's in the midst of an outlier performance of pool analysis that lasts about 2-3 months before reality sets in. His profits will diminish to the point of being buried in the red, euphoria disappears, the finality now engulfs him, it was all false hope and there's NO Holy Grail after all.....

[PaceAdvantage]

Some of the replies to Nitro here...I have to ask...are you guys all trolls? Seriously. That's a serious question.

If you don't think for one second that there isn't a way to make profitable plays from the toteboard, then you're all idiots.

*I* haven't found a way to do this yet, but I've done enough to the point that I KNOW people who are BETTER at this then I am DEFINITELY can find an edge.

And some of you ultra-aggressive types with very little CLASS when posting replies are going to be banned very shortly if you keep this shit up.

You know who you are.

[thespaah]

Some of the replies to Nitro here...I have to ask...are you guys all trolls? Seriously. That's a serious question.

If you don't think for one second that there isn't a way to make profitable plays from the toteboard, then you're all idiots.

*I* haven't found a way to do this yet, but I've done enough to the point that I KNOW people who are BETTER at this then I am DEFINITELY can find an edge.

And some of you ultra-aggressive types with very little CLASS when posting replies are going to be banned very shortly if you keep this shit up.

You know who you are.
PA..I'm going to apologize for my comments here.
I will PM you with further.

[thaskalos]

Some of the replies to Nitro here...I have to ask...are you guys all trolls? Seriously. That's a serious question.

If you don't think for one second that there isn't a way to make profitable plays from the toteboard, then you're all idiots.

*I* haven't found a way to do this yet, but I've done enough to the point that I KNOW people who are BETTER at this then I am DEFINITELY can find an edge.

And some of you ultra-aggressive types with very little CLASS when posting replies are going to be banned very shortly if you keep this shit up.

You know who you are.
:ThmbUp:

If the horseplayer is really good...then he should be ALLOWED to be a little "arrogant"...IMO. This is a horse racing board, and, although all our opinions count...no-where is it written that all the opinions here should be counted EQUALLY. Nitro has been posting his handicapping selections on Australian racing for some time here...and, even though I myself don't follow them...those that do have been praising Nitro's handicapping acumen. That's good enough for me. Do those who criticize him have similar resumes here?

[PaceAdvantage]

PA..I'm going to apologize for my comments here.
I will PM you with further.Truth be told you weren't on my radar when I made those comments. Maybe I need to go back and review your posts again... :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Stillriledup]

:ThmbUp:

If the horseplayer is really good...then he should be ALLOWED to be a little "arrogant"...IMO. This is a horse racing board, and, although all our opinions count...no-where is it written that all the opinions here should be counted EQUALLY. Nitro has been posting his handicapping selections on Australian racing for some time here...and, even though I myself don't follow them...those that do have been praising Nitro's handicapping acumen. That's good enough for me. Do those who criticize him have similar resumes here?

It's not a requirement to have a 'resume' to post on a message board and be critical.

[Grits]

Thask, I'm refreshing your memory on the definitions of pride and arrogant. There is never any genuine need for arrogance here. It only serves as uncomplimentary to one who could well be, far above what we'd term as equal.

pride
noun
noun: pride; plural noun: prides
a feeling or deep pleasure or satisfaction derived from one's own achievements, the achievements of those with whom one is closely associated, or from qualities or possessions that are widely admired.
"the team was bursting with pride after recording a sensational victory"
synonyms:pleasure (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+pleasure&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIHjAA), joy (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+joy&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIHzAA), delight (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+delight&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIIDAA), gratification (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+gratification&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIITAA), fulfillment (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+fulfillment&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIIjAA), satisfaction (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+satisfaction&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIIzAA), a sense of achievement "take pride in a good job well done"

ar·ro·gant
adjective
adjective: arrogant
having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.
"he's arrogant and opinionated"
synonyms:haughty (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+haughty&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi5uf7Q6K3LAhVmtYMKHUPEAmwQ_SoIHjAA), conceited (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+conceited&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi5uf7Q6K3LAhVmtYMKHUPEAmwQ_SoIHzAA), self-important, egotistic, full of oneself, superior (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+superior&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi5uf7Q6K3LAhVmtYMKHUPEAmwQ_SoIIDAA)

[thaskalos]

Thask, I'm refreshing your memory on the definitions of pride and arrogant. There is never any genuine need for arrogance here. It only serves as uncomplimentary to one who could well be, far above what we'd term as equal.

pride
noun
noun: pride; plural noun: prides
a feeling or deep pleasure or satisfaction derived from one's own achievements, the achievements of those with whom one is closely associated, or from qualities or possessions that are widely admired.
"the team was bursting with pride after recording a sensational victory"
synonyms:pleasure (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+pleasure&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIHjAA), joy (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+joy&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIHzAA), delight (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+delight&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIIDAA), gratification (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+gratification&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIITAA), fulfillment (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+fulfillment&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIIjAA), satisfaction (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+satisfaction&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiqn5vB6K3LAhWrkIMKHanGDz8Q_SoIIzAA), a sense of achievement "take pride in a good job well done"

ar·ro·gant
adjective
adjective: arrogant
having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.
"he's arrogant and opinionated"
synonyms:haughty (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+haughty&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi5uf7Q6K3LAhVmtYMKHUPEAmwQ_SoIHjAA), conceited (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+conceited&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi5uf7Q6K3LAhVmtYMKHUPEAmwQ_SoIHzAA), self-important, egotistic, full of oneself, superior (https://www.google.com/search?biw=1192&bih=650&q=define+superior&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi5uf7Q6K3LAhVmtYMKHUPEAmwQ_SoIIDAA)

I put the word "arrogant" in quotation marks, because this word wasn't originally used by me, It was used by thespaah. I, myself, don't see any "arrogance" in any of Nitro's posts here. All I see is the self-confidence of a horseplayer who has been posting picks successfully for some time on this board. If a horseplayer who has been showcasing his handicapping skill for quite a while wants to exude some self-confidence here, then I won't be one to stand in his way...because I believe he has earned it.

[Stillriledup]

I put the word "arrogant" in quotation marks, because this word wasn't originally used by me, It was used by thespaah. I, myself, don't see any "arrogance" in any of Nitro's posts here. All I see is the self-confidence of a horseplayer who has been posting picks successfully for some time on this board. If a horseplayer who has been showcasing his handicapping skill for quite a while wants to exude some self-confidence here, then I won't be one to stand in his way...because I believe he has earned it.

I think he took at least a little shot at video handicapping and or video handicappers. He's not a video guy so I'm not sure why he's talking like video work is a waste of time.

[ReplayRandall]

I think he took at least a little shot at video handicapping and or video handicappers. He's not a video guy so I'm not sure why he's talking like video work is a waste of time.

Yeah, it was just a "little shot" alright......You're being quite diplomatic here, SRU.

[thaskalos]

I think he took at least a little shot at video handicapping and or video handicappers. He's not a video guy so I'm not sure why he's talking like video work is a waste of time.
That's not "arrogant"...nor is it "almost combative". We take "little shots" here all the time...and nothing ever becomes of it. Like I said...Nitro has shown a lot more proof of his handicapping skill on this board than his critics have shown. He is allowed to brag a little about his methods...IMO.

[steveb]

Don't worry, he's in the midst of an outlier performance of pool analysis that lasts about 2-3 months before reality sets in. His profits will diminish to the point of being buried in the red, euphoria disappears, the finality now engulfs him, it was all false hope and there's NO Holy Grail after all.....

i am on safe ground here as you won't respond to me!!
i have no idea how nitro does his tote analysis, but i would take him at face value.
simply because i know that people DO do what he does and make squillions.
and have for many many years.
also, all the syndicates will have factors where they analyse the tote.
something i admit i don't properly understand, because they are the guys making all the profit.

it would have no appeal to me because i would rather do it my way(if i was still doing it), but if your objective is to make money long term, then i know it is possible this way, even if i don't know the how.

[thaskalos]

i am on safe ground here as you won't respond to me!!
i have no idea how nitro does his tote analysis, but i would take him at face value.
simply because i know that people DO do what he does and make squillions.
and have for many many years.
also, all the syndicates will have factors where they analyse the tote.
something i admit i don't properly understand, because they are the guys making all the profit.

it would have no appeal to me because i would rather do it my way(if i was still doing it), but if your objective is to make money long term, then i know it is possible this way, even if i don't know the how.

Based on your experience with betting syndicates...would you eliminate the possibility that some of them have a connection to the backstretch, thus gaining access to truly "inside" information about particular horses in the race? I see surprising betting action on some average-looking horses, and I can't trace this to any attributes that the horses have exhibited on the track. And I also see some obvious "standout horses" who don't attract the sort of betting action that their on-track ability warrants...and these "overlooked" horses seldom run to their on-track credentials.

[Stillriledup]

That's not "arrogant"...nor is it "almost combative". We take "little shots" here all the time...and nothing ever becomes of it. Like I said...Nitro has shown a lot more proof of his handicapping skill on this board than his critics have shown. He is allowed to brag a little about his methods...IMO.

I'm not saying he shouldn't brag about his method, but why make comments on other people's methods and insinuate that those methods either don't work or his methods are better. Why crash down on tape watchers as opposed to just talking (and bragging) about his own method?

[thaskalos]

I'm not saying he shouldn't brag about his method, but why make comments on other people's methods and insinuate that those methods either don't work or his methods are better. Why crash down on tape watchers as opposed to just talking (and bragging) about his own method?

He didn't "crash down" on anything or anybody, SRU. He just voiced a dissenting opinion...and he prefaced it with the words "as far as I am concerned". There have been all kinds of opinions here...and they occasionally conflict with one another. Conflicting opinions lead to the best horse racing conversations, if they are kept civil...and Nitro's posts were civil.

I've read all types of opinions here that I've disagreed with. "The pencil-and-paper handicapper can no longer compete"..."You MUST watch replays in order to beat this game"..."You MUST be able to show a profit with win-bets before you can profitably attack the exotics"..."You MUST review your losing bets in order to discover your mistakes"...etc. People believe that we "MUST" do all sorts of things, and these are the opinions that thoughtful discussions are built around...assuming that the conversation remains civil.

IMO...Nitro was civil here...while thespaah took the combative stance. SO WHAT if we occasionally disagree here? Can we have any meaningful discussions if we all AGREE? Nitro's posts here were the type that lead to further discussion...whereas replies like thespaah's take the conversation down a different path, IMO.

[Stillriledup]

He didn't "crash down" on anything or anybody, SRU. He just voiced a dissenting opinion...and he prefaced it with the words "as far as I am concerned". There have been all kinds of opinions here...and they occasionally conflict with one another. Conflicting opinions lead to the best horse racing conversations, if they are kept civil...and Nitro's posts were civil.

I've read all types of opinions here that I've disagreed with. "The pencil-and-paper handicapper can no longer compete"..."You MUST watch replays in order to beat this game"..."You MUST be able to show a profit with win-bets before you can profitably attack the exotics"..."You MUST review your losing bets in order to discover your mistakes"...etc. People believe that we "MUST" do all sorts of things, and these are the opinions that thoughtful discussions are built around...assuming that the conversation remains civil.

IMO...Nitro was civil here...while thespaah took the combative stance. SO WHAT if we occasionally disagree here? Can we have any meaningful discussions if we all AGREE? Nitro's posts here were the type that lead to further discussion...whereas replies like thespaah's take the conversation down a different path, IMO.

You're right that spaah went 'trumpian' in his response and I agree that Nitro didnt say anything that should have gotten anyone's dander up, I just think if you're expertise is NOT watching replays, why try and convince others that watching tape is a bad idea?

[steveb]

Based on your experience with betting syndicates...would you eliminate the possibility that some of them have a connection to the backstretch, thus gaining access to truly "inside" information about particular horses in the race? I see surprising betting action on some average-looking horses, and I can't trace this to any attributes that the horses have exhibited on the track. And I also see some obvious "standout horses" who don't attract the sort of betting action that their on-track ability warrants...and these "overlooked" horses seldom run to their on-track credentials.

i can only speak for my own experiences, and that would preclude knowing exactly what most of them do.
the last mob i was with, had an ex top trainer on the payroll.
an interesting point,....that trainer told me, that if he knew then what he does now after we had taught him, he would have been a far far better trainer than he was.
as he might have known horses, but that is not the same as understanding racing and the myriad of factors involved in allotting probabilities.
also in countries where there are not many tracks, they will have experts in the parade ring watching them and then relaying that info, and adjusting their probs on what he/she reports.
i guess that would be impractical in countries like yours and mine where there is so much racing.


as for inside information, i am reasonably sure they will shun it.
certainly i have never been interested in knowing what trainers thought.
why would a trainer know anything about other trainers' horses?
surely they would just be worrying about their own?

and to get back back on topic.
although i never went there and saw it myself(as it did not interest me), the last mob i was with, had 40 employees in manila, doing NOTHING but watching videos from the various countries of interest, with set routines they were taught, so as to be consistent.

but nearly everything i say is now dated.
i don't live in that world these days.
i don't even follow racing now, although i am still interested in methodology, if not the actual racing.
but i am probably way out of touch.
not to mention that the actual betting side of it was not where my expertise lay.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think there's any question that watching replays can be a net positive. Just take Saturday's card at AQU for example. That was one of the most biased racetracks you are going to come across. I'm definitely going to watch every replay on that card multiple times so I can accumulate some notes on where each of the horses ran. Without that information I'd be sure to misevaluate a bunch of horses when they return. There are lots of other examples like that.

I also think there's no question that some people have access to information about the condition of horses that the public does not have and it can be reflected on the tote board. Just last weekend I was at Belmont watching morning workouts and picked up some information on a few horses that no one else has other than the trainer, owners, and me.

However, I don't think it's particularly easy to discern when it's inside money and when it's public money. A lot of the time horses that people think may be taking inside money are simply horses that are getting bet by sharp members of the public that know a trainer pattern that you don't know, are using a different set of speed figures than you, like Ragozin of TG , know that a particular horses ran against a bias last out etc... We don't know everything.

[ultracapper]

Some of the replies to Nitro here...I have to ask...are you guys all trolls? Seriously. That's a serious question.

If you don't think for one second that there isn't a way to make profitable plays from the toteboard, then you're all idiots.

*I* haven't found a way to do this yet, but I've done enough to the point that I KNOW people who are BETTER at this then I am DEFINITELY can find an edge.

And some of you ultra-aggressive types with very little CLASS when posting replies are going to be banned very shortly if you keep this shit up.

You know who you are.

I, myself, have never questioned Nitro or anyone else, about whether tote board analysis can be a profitable manner of selecting winning plays. If somebody can theorize a method of handicapping, I imagine there is a way to refine it and realize a practical manner to play this game. The issues I have had with Nitro in the limited back and forth we've had has been when questioning just what he is doing with his selections, and questioning him in a very civil manner, being responded to in a very smug and condescending manner. It has only happened once because I have no problems moving on when confronted in this manner, but I know many other posters that have engaged him have felt that they have been responded to in the same way.

He is not required to answer any of mine or anybody else's questions. He is not required to divulge anything he doesn't want to. But the old "I've told you over and over, now if you don't get it, go buy a book" crap is uncalled for. The first and only time he responded to me like that I had to go over the discussion 3 or 4 times to see what I'd said to deserve the smack down. I then lost my head and went on a wise guy series of posts. Something I'm not proud of, but it happens.

I've wasted my time with this post, as I'd gotten over my little encounter with him long ago. I just wanted to support, hopefully in a reasonable manner, those that have felt his sting, in what they perceived as an unwarranted response.

[PaceAdvantage]

So you think he deserves these kinds of responses:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1956629&postcount=39

[ultracapper]

No

[ultracapper]

And just a real late addition to my above post, IMO, Nitro's post in this particular thread really shouldn't have triggered any vitriolic responses. Obviously, battle hangover being suffered by a couple of posters.

[thaskalos]

As is the case with any other handicapping "tool", replays can be very effective...if they are in the right hands. And, they can cause considerable problems, if they fall into the WRONG hands. I'll say this, though: Nothing beats replay-watching, if you need to find an excuse for your losing wager. :ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

Look, I didn’t mean to cause a “tilt” with my comments about “replays”. Maybe they’re useful to some, but I was trying to throw some common sense out there by suggesting that there’s more to the result of a horse’s racing problem then meets the eye. I really didn’t expect to receive so many negative responses but I guess I struck a nerve. I do want to thank those who were able to see that I wasn’t attempting to besmirch anyone personally by my lack of support for watching race re-runs.
I think in the future I’ll just stick with the Selection forum and avoid these sort confrontations.

Unfortunately, the replays just like the past performances ONLY tell you what happened. They don’t forecast what’s going to happen. Where does it tell you anywhere how a horse has come out of a race, especially if it had some difficulties? You’re right! NO WHERE!
Notwithstanding the apparent argumentative, almost combative response, I have some questions for you...
Where is it found on the standard past performance pages we normally buy how a horse came out of a race?
Where in a ( I'm almost laughing at the contradiction) set of PAST performances does a prediction of future results appear?
How is it you have been able to become an 'insider' so that you can arrogantly declare that you have more information than the 'average horse player"...What are we? The great unwashed masses? I’m sort of amused by your post too, because it sounds like you’re asking the same exact question I did! Obviously the answer is: That type of information doesn’t appear anywhere, except perhaps when the animal is seen once again prior to its next start.

I wouldn’t say that my comments are arrogant at all and certainly don’t correlate to your comical description of all players. But let’s get real! If you’re not connected you’re like me, an Outsider. What I’m saying simply is that I think the game really hasn’t changed since its inception. The owners and all those who have anything to do with the running of these horses have an inside track as to whether or not they believe their horse will perform at its best on any given day. That doesn’t automatically mean that it’s going win. But if you can find a number of them with good intentions and decent odds, then my friend you’re talkin’ my game: Hedging a bit with a decent exotic betting structure to produce a winning play. :ThmbUp:

Don't worry, he's in the midst of an outlier performance of pool analysis that lasts about 2-3 months before reality sets in. His profits will diminish to the point of being buried in the red, euphoria disappears, the finality now engulfs him, it was all false hope and there's NO Holy Grail after all..... Friend I don't have a Holy Grail, but haven’t added a dollar to my ADW account in the last 3 years either. I don’t rely on rebates and my Quinella betting at Hong Kong has thankfully elevated my game to a new level. I plan on milking those Chinese pools till the cows come home! LOL
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[Nitro]

How do you know you're not just following the money of sharp trip handicappers who are betting a horse down off a hidden tough trip they found watching replays? Is there anything particular in your methods that assures you're betting "insider" money, which is what I believe your analysis is based on, correct? Maybe you've been piggybacking off those using past results as a guide all along :) Is your success with this method only/mainly in Hong Kong or does it work in the states too? I don’t, but would you really believe that just a replay would give someone outside of the game the incentive to bet heavily? On the other hand, the connections that know exactly how the horse came out of the race and know every aspect of the horse’s current condition, just might.

Look, I’m only an avid user of the tote analysis and still learning some of its subtleties that come up from time to time. I’m not the developer; however I’ve been told that the various formulas used to produce the betting patterns are unique for specific tracks with varying pool sizes. They have evolved from a database containing the tote data and related race conditions from 30 tracks since 2000. There’s apparently ½ million races that have been used to refine each formula for the purpose of generating a pattern that corresponds as closely as possible to the actual top 5 finishers in a race (but not necessarily in the exact order of finish). That’s good enough for me!

Yes I do post selections. Partly to share my good fortune and also to offer some credibility for the way I choose to play the game that I’m enjoying more now than I ever did over the last 25 years.

i'm sharp enough to do my own tote analysis.. and guess what its free :lol: .. to be a winner you gotta use all the tools in the box and know when to apply them. One trick pony capers are weak!
Anyways no hard feeling gl to youThere's no hard feelings here, but I can’t vouch for your handicapping or your abilities to analyze all 3 Mutual betting and Exacta pools simultaneously.
From my personal experience when I thought the tote analysis would be a nice addition to my handicapping I was completely wrong. I found that the handicapping was actually compromising my ability to cash-in on some nice exotic plays. Finding those 3rd and 4th finishers can be tough, but no more! Yes, I given up handicapping entirely and focused more on the betting side of the game.
You can judge for yourself if my “One trick” is weak.

These are my “state-side” selection threads from this year:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=129425&page=1

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=129392&page=1

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=129365&page=1

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=129265

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=129119&page=1

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=129095&page=1

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128958&page=1

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128927&page=1

This thread in particular would be a good example of some the comments that often bewilder me. That’s only because I would think that anyone who plays regularly would have the basic abilities to structure any type of bet from posted selections that are pretty reliable.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128003&page=1

These are few of my “Hong Kong” selection threads from the end of last year:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=127843

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=127727

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=127606&page=1

And if all goes well there's more to come!
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[NorCalGreg]

LOL...Nitro went all "EMD", point-by-point-....thread-by-thread grievances.....wow, this took a lot of work...



Glad I stayed out of this :rolleyes:

[EMD4ME]

Video Replay Handicapping, IMO, can many times provide some amazing clues that can not be seen on paper.

We have all seen thousands of amazing things in a race. I've seen what I thought to be a horse sneeze right before the gate opened. Horse lost that "smooth" start that is so vital.

Bet the horse back (not just for that reason but for many reasons-but that note, helped explain the average effort in the last start).

My favorite is finding super dressed up horses to pitch next out. 10 horse field, PP2 breaks out bad and pp8 breaks in bad, causing the 34567 to be off slow. The 1 and 9 are dead closers, SO the 10 takes the lead in a slow pace on a speed track.

To me that 10 horse has a super dressed up line and that is important to know.

It's the unusual stuff that is not found on paper, that I love about closely watching replays.

[ultracapper]

Video Replay Handicapping, IMO, can many times provide some amazing clues that can not be seen on paper.

We have all seen thousands of amazing things in a race. I've seen what I thought to be a horse sneeze right before the gate opened. Horse lost that "smooth" start that is so vital.

Bet the horse back (not just for that reason but for many reasons-but that note, helped explain the average effort in the last start).

My favorite is finding super dressed up horses to pitch next out. 10 horse field, PP2 breaks out bad and pp8 breaks in bad, causing the 34567 to be off slow. The 1 and 9 are dead closers, SO the 10 takes the lead in a slow pace on a speed track.

To me that 10 horse has a super dressed up line and that is important to know.

It's the unusual stuff that is not found on paper, that I love about closely watching replays.

There is so much that just can not be presented to the handicapper in the PPs just due to limited space. It doesn't matter what PPs are used, there just is no way the race can be fully represented in the PPs.

[thaskalos]

Video Replay Handicapping, IMO, can many times provide some amazing clues that can not be seen on paper.

We have all seen thousands of amazing things in a race. I've seen what I thought to be a horse sneeze right before the gate opened. Horse lost that "smooth" start that is so vital.

Bet the horse back (not just for that reason but for many reasons-but that note, helped explain the average effort in the last start).

My favorite is finding super dressed up horses to pitch next out. 10 horse field, PP2 breaks out bad and pp8 breaks in bad, causing the 34567 to be off slow. The 1 and 9 are dead closers, SO the 10 takes the lead in a slow pace on a speed track.

To me that 10 horse has a super dressed up line and that is important to know.

It's the unusual stuff that is not found on paper, that I love about closely watching replays.

Are you one of the gate-crew guys? I thought you were a banker.

[EMD4ME]

Are you one of the gate-crew guys? I thought you were a banker.

I wish I was a gate-crew guy, DO YOU KNOW how much in tips I could make :lol: :lol: :lol: ?

[EMD4ME]

There is so much that just can not be presented to the handicapper in the PPs just due to limited space. It doesn't matter what PPs are used, there just is no way the race can be fully represented in the PPs.

Hence why that new company was taking this angle : Trip notes on Steroids as Ka$h likes to say.