Top Horse Analytics: 03/02/2016 TAM Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: AQU, GP, OP, SA, TAM
THA Suspended Tracks:
THA Inactive Tracks: BEL, CD, DMR, GPW, KEE, SAR

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.02.03a)

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)

Race Results
Full Charts (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
THA Race Results (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

03/02/16, TAM, Race 1, 12.25 ET
1 1/16M [Dirt] 1.42.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $10,500.
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 1-2-3) / Super High 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: .He's the Dude [9/5] Gallardo A A / Rivelli Larry JTSW
098.1758 :4: Full Package [3-1] Butler D P / Patrick R. Gary L
097.0069 :8: Assist [9/2] Santos A / Ward Dennis E
096.6273 :1: Chromos [5-1] Spieth S / Gonzalez Aldana C
095.8432 3 Espion [30-1] Camacho S / Barbaran Horacio
095.4662 5 Seven Mondays [6-1] Cruz M R / Carey Charles A. F
093.7727 6 Far From Normal [10-1] Villa-Gomez H / Raymond Robert A.
093.5020 7 He's a Miracle [20-1] Pompell T L / Wasiluk. Jr. Peter

03/02/16, TAM, Race 2, 12.55 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.15.02 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $24,000.
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 2-3-4)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Streamsong [5/2] Centeno D / Abbott. III Francis SEC
099.7525 :4: My Mertie [7/2] De La Cruz F / Boyce Michele TF
099.2955 :5: Devil's Rose [6-1] Gallardo A A / Boyce Michele J
098.7059 :2: Spanish Concert [9/2] Allen. Jr. R D / O'Connell Kathleen L
098.2530 3 Redshirt [3-1] Serpa A / Harty Eoin G. W
097.9615 1 Lotta Attitude [5-1] Cruz M R / Hamm Timothy E.

03/02/16, TAM, Race 3, 1.25 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.03 CLAIMING. Purse $19,200.
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 3-4-5) / Pick 4 ($.50 minimum) (Races 3-4-5-6) - Super High 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Nightbar [7/2] Centeno D / Rivelli Larry JTFELC
097.1797 :1: Supreme Stature [3-1] Lindsay C / Wilkes Ian R.
096.0732 :2: Think He's Gone [6-1] Villa-Gomez H / Parra Hernan S
095.9203 :5: R Sniper Jones [8-1] Allen. Jr. R D / Bennett Gerald S.
095.6924 3 The A Plan [5-1] De La Cruz F / Trisler G. Ray W
094.9232 7 Savio [15-1] Morales P / McCullough James
*Scratch* 4 All About Ready [2-1] Gallardo A A / Gaffney Ronald

03/02/16, TAM, Race 4, 1.55 ET
1M 40Y [Dirt] 1.39.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $12,500.
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 4-5-6) / Super High 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :8: .Hold Me Tight [2-1] Lindsay C / Leonard. III George SFEWL
098.9206 :6: Western Shine [9/5] Garcia J A / Smith Robert G.
098.4084 :3: Jackieshonorroll [9/2] Coa K J / Fuller-Vargas Laurine
096.9164 :5: Passion Trail [12-1] Santos A / Rendon Alex JTC
096.4225 4 Distinct Angel [15-1] Monterrey. Jr. P / Durr Zollie
096.0100 2 Bourbon Trace [20-1] Campbell J / Dominguez Luis R.
095.0091 1 Desert Turf [8-1] Serpa A / Agostini Arthur O.
094.6759 7 Imperial Rose [15-1] Keiser C / Troche Manuel

03/02/16, TAM, Race 5, 2.25 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $14,000.
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 5-6-7) / Super High 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Listen to Mama [5/2] Morales P / Bennett Dale L
099.9106 :11: Cohasset [4-1] Gallardo A A / O'Connell Kathleen JFE
098.4423 :2: Diddums [12-1] Allen M / Jeffries Robert A. S
098.1466 :8: Just Em [8-1] Pedroza B / Ness Jamie
098.1017 7 Minnie Me [15-1] Santos A / Bennett Gerald S. C
097.7911 12 Silver Dancer [20-1] Cotto. Jr. P L / Williams Edward L.
097.3699 4 Moon Over Cabo [20-1] Figueroa L / Patrick R. Gary
097.2746 5 Diamond Tour [12-1] Garcia J A / Estevez Manuel A.
096.7971 10 Good Riddanz Drica [10-1] De La Cruz F / Hernandez. Jr. Sandino TW
094.7504 3 Blustery Wind [30-1] Rook S / Boileau Robert
092.5545 9 Was It Worth It [30-1] Garcia G / Waite Delcor D.
*Scratch* 14 Celtic Embrace [30-1] Santos A / Parrish. Sr. George W.
*Scratch* 13 Lone Cat [6-1] Morales P / Bezara Agustin C.
*Scratch* 1 Diamond Rose [3-1] Wales G / Ryan Derek S.

03/02/16, TAM, Race 6, 2.55 ET
1M [Turf] 1.33.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $14,000.
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 6-7-8) / Pick 5 ($.50 minimum) (Races 6-10) - Super High 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: .A Princess She Is [5/2] Garcia J A / Stewart Chad J. FEC
098.7271 :10: She Kant Miss [7/2] Centeno D / Bennett Gerald S. JT
098.6850 :8: Peggy O'Prado [3-1] Ferrer J C / Ward Dennis S
096.2629 :11: Southern Touch [6-1] Boulanger G / Lightner Mary
096.1690 6 Perfectly Prudent [12-1] Monterrey. Jr. P / Miller Rory C.
095.9615 2 Queen Fiddle [15-1] Lebron V / Pecoraro Anthony L
095.7378 3 Prospect Drive [12-1] Camacho S / Barbaran Horacio
095.7045 1 Puff Piece [12-1] Coa K J / Wasiluk. Jr. Peter W
095.2273 9 Celeste's Bull [12-1] Allen M / Schultz Harold F.
091.7115 7 Ms. Short Fuze [15-1] De La Cruz F / DaCosta Jason
*Scratch* 4 Calm [12-1] Evans C / Kobiskie Dane
*Scratch* 12 Love Like Mine [20-1] Serpa A / Levy Tamara L.

03/02/16, TAM, Race 7, 3.25 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.21.02 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $18,000.
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 7-8-9) / Pick 4 ($.50 minimum) (Races 7-8-9-10) - Super High 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: More Than a Image [6-1] Centeno D / Bennett Gerald S. JTFW
099.8928 :7: .Seems a Fortune [2-1] Lindsay C / Wilkes Ian R. SEC
098.2730 :2: Celesse [8-1] Lebron V / Minnock Wayne G. L
097.1256 :3: Unique Greatness [7/2] Spieth S / Gonzalez Aldana
096.3669 6 Alittlecomplicated [5-1] Pompell T L / Klopp Randy L.
096.3466 4 Served Cold [9/2] Coa K J / Wasiluk. Jr. Peter
*Scratch* 1 Sweet Story [8-1] Allen. Jr. R D / Rountree Cathy

03/02/16, TAM, Race 8, 3.55 ET
1 1/8M [Turf] 1.46.03 CLAIMING. Purse $17,000.
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 8-9-10) / Super High 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: .Kitten Dance [3-1] Gallardo A A / O'Connor. II Robert R. J
093.1493 :3: Diana's Daisy [12-1] Centeno D / Stewart Chad J. C
091.9190 :5: Midnightatmarions [4-1] Butler D P / Chavez Jose L
090.4715 :2: Ethereal Miss [10-1] Morales P / Sheppard Jonathan E. E
089.5330 9 Allaboutthechase [8-1] Garcia L / O'Connell Kathleen F
089.2200 8 Sister Blues [5/2] Coa K J / Proctor Thomas F. TS
085.7501 6 So Silver [10-1] Keiser C / Palacios Molina Jacob W
084.1798 7 In a Momentsnotice [30-1] Garcia J A / Lee Anna M.
*Scratch* 10 My Kansas Girl [30-1] Rodriguez E D / Smith. Jr. Franklin G.
*Scratch* 1 My One and Only [6-1] Mangalee N / Saleem Gordon

03/02/16, TAM, Race 9, 4.25 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.03 CLAIMING. Purse $13,000.
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Super High 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Tax Breaker [9/2] Ferrer J C / McBride Barbara I. SF
099.9451 :1: .Strollingintherain [5/2] De La Cruz F / DaCosta Jason JT
099.6814 :2: Mongolian Honey [5-1] Lindsay C / DaCosta Jason L
097.5855 :7: Desert Summer [8-1] Coa K J / Wasiluk. Jr. Peter EC
097.3030 3 Connect the Dots [15-1] Villa-Gomez H / Potts Ron G. W
096.7114 4 Melody Pomeroy [15-1] Spieth S / Gonzalez Aldana
*Scratch* 8 Fionetta [3-1] Gallardo A A / Bennett Dale
*Scratch* 6 Rosa Carina [5-1] Frates D J / Ness Jamie

03/02/16, TAM, Race 10, 4.55 ET
1M [Turf] 1.33.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $14,000.
Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) / Super High 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Wild Aspen Flower [3-1] Keiser C / McCarthy Brenda SFEWL
099.2751 :12: Descarado [9/2] Gallardo A A / Rodriguez Darien T
097.6104 :3: Freed Spirit [4-1] Monterrey. Jr. P / Collins Johnny
097.4799 :10: Dad'ssilverpitcher [8-1] Gallardo A A / Ferraro M. Anthony JC
097.3229 5 Don'tpassjudgement [5-1] Lebron V / Arboritanza Joseph
096.9253 8 Its All You [6-1] Centeno D / Woodard Walter H.
096.7888 7 Chastity [15-1] Villa-Gomez H / Parra Hernan
096.7888 1 Go Heat [15-1] Spieth S / Gonzalez Aldana
096.2759 2 Kool Kenai [10-1] Garcia J A / Pecoraro Anthony
095.0593 9 Charming Emily [9/2] Allen. Jr. R D / Scott Joan
*Scratch* 4 Heard the News [30-1] Vargas J L / Boileau Robert
*Scratch* 14 Grecian Lady [20-1] Lindsay C / Guciardo Kathleen A.
*Scratch* 13 Samra I Am [30-1] Lindsay C / Albertrani Louis
*Scratch* 11 Sylver Magic [5-1] Cruz M R / Jackson Gary G.

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.02.03a)

Race Results
WPS Takeout at TAM is 17%, Breakage is $0.20

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

03/02/16, TAM, Race 1, 12:25 ET
1 1/16M [Dirt] 1.42.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $10,500.
-------------------------------------------------------- fst Fast
100.0000 :2: .He's the Dude [9/5 * ] JTSW 1st - 3.40 3.00 2.40
098.1758 :4: Full Package [3-1] L
097.0069 :8: Assist [9/2] E 4th
096.6273 :1: Chromos [5-1] C 3rd - 4.60
095.8432 3 Espion [30-1]
095.4662 5 Seven Mondays [6-1] F
093.7727 6 Far From Normal [10-1]
093.5020 7 He's a Miracle [20-1] 2nd - 23.80 12.40

03/02/16, TAM, Race 2, 12:55 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.15.02 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $24,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- fst Fast
100.0000 :6: .Streamsong [5/2] SEC last
099.7525 :4: My Mertie [7/2 * ] TF 1st - 5.00 2.80 2.20
099.2955 :5: Devil's Rose [6-1] J 4th
098.7059 :2: Spanish Concert [9/2] L 2nd - 4.20 2.40
098.2530 3 Redshirt [3-1] W 3rd - 2.60
097.9615 1 Lotta Attitude [5-1]

03/02/16, TAM, Race 3, 1:25 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.03 CLAIMING. Purse $19,200.
-------------------------------------------------------- fst Fast
100.0000 :6: .Nightbar [7/2 * ] JTFELC 1st - 5.20 3.60 3.00
097.1797 :1: Supreme Stature [3-1] 4th
096.0732 :2: Think He's Gone [6-1] S 2nd - 11.60 6.40
095.9203 :5: R Sniper Jones [8-1]
095.6924 3 The A Plan [5-1] W
094.9232 7 Savio [15-1] 3rd - 5.60
*Scratch* 4 All About Ready [2-1]

03/02/16, TAM, Race 4, 1:55 ET
1M 40Y [Dirt] 1.39.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $12,500.
-------------------------------------------------------- fst Fast
100.0000 :8: .Hold Me Tight [2-1 * ] SFEWL 1st - 3.20 2.20 2.10
098.9206 :6: Western Shine [9/5] 2nd - 3.20 2.80 $2 Ex 9.80
098.4084 :3: Jackieshonorroll [9/2]
096.9164 :5: Passion Trail [12-1] JTC
096.4225 4 Distinct Angel [15-1]
096.0100 2 Bourbon Trace [20-1] 3rd - 5.00
095.0091 1 Desert Turf [8-1] 4th
094.6759 7 Imperial Rose [15-1]
$2 DD 9.60

03/02/16, TAM, Race 5, 2:25 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $14,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- fst Fast
100.0000 :6: .Listen to Mama [5/2 * ] L 4th
099.9106 :11: Cohasset [4-1] JFE 1st - 7.60 3.80 3.40
098.4423 :2: Diddums [12-1] S
098.1466 :8: Just Em [8-1] 2nd - 6.20 3.80
098.1017 7 Minnie Me [15-1] C
097.7911 12 Silver Dancer [20-1]
097.3699 4 Moon Over Cabo [20-1]
097.2746 5 Diamond Tour [12-1] 3rd - 8.40
096.7971 10 Good Riddanz Drica [10-1] TW
094.7504 3 Blustery Wind [30-1]
092.5545 9 Was It Worth It [30-1]
*Scratch* 14 Celtic Embrace [30-1]
*Scratch* 13 Lone Cat [6-1]
*Scratch* 1 Diamond Rose [3-1]

03/02/16, TAM, Race 6, 2:55 ET
1M [Turf] 1.33.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $14,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- fm Firm
100.0000 :5: .A Princess She Is [5/2] FEC 3rd to 8th
098.7271 :10: She Kant Miss [7/2] JT 2nd - 4.20 3.20
098.6850 :8: Peggy O'Prado [3-1 * ] S 3rd - 2.60
096.2629 :11: Southern Touch [6-1]
096.1690 6 Perfectly Prudent [12-1]
095.9615 2 Queen Fiddle [15-1] L 1st - 10.40 5.40 3.40
095.7378 3 Prospect Drive [12-1]
095.7045 1 Puff Piece [12-1] W
095.2273 9 Celeste's Bull [12-1] 4th
091.7115 7 Ms. Short Fuze [15-1]
*Scratch* 4 Calm [12-1]
*Scratch* 12 Love Like Mine [20-1]

03/02/16, TAM, Race 7, 3:25 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.21.02 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $18,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- fst Fast
100.0000 :5: More Than a Image [6-1] JTFW 2nd - 2.80 2.60
099.8928 :7: .Seems a Fortune [2-1 * ] SEC 1st - 4.00 2.40 2.20
098.2730 :2: Celesse [8-1] L
097.1256 :3: Unique Greatness [7/2] 3rd - 2.60
096.3669 6 Alittlecomplicated [5-1] 4th
096.3466 4 Served Cold [9/2]
*Scratch* 1 Sweet Story [8-1]

03/02/16, TAM, Race 8, 3:55 ET
1 1/8M [Turf] 1.46.03 CLAIMING. Purse $17,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- fm Firm
100.0000 :4: .Kitten Dance [3-1 * ] J 3rd - 2.10
093.1493 :3: Diana's Daisy [12-1] C 2nd - 7.60 3.20
091.9190 :5: Midnightatmarions [4-1] L 4th
090.4715 :2: Ethereal Miss [10-1] E
089.5330 9 Allaboutthechase [8-1] F
089.2200 8 Sister Blues [5/2] TS 1st - 6.20 3.40 2.40
085.7501 6 So Silver [10-1] W
084.1798 7 In a Momentsnotice [30-1]
*Scratch* 10 My Kansas Girl [30-1]
*Scratch* 1 My One and Only [6-1]

03/02/16, TAM, Race 9, 4:25 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.03 CLAIMING. Purse $13,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- fst Fast
100.0000 :5: Tax Breaker [9/2] SF 2nd - 3.80 4.00
099.9451 :1: .Strollingintherain [5/2 * ] JT
099.6814 :2: Mongolian Honey [5-1] L 4th
097.5855 :7: Desert Summer [8-1] EC 1st - 10.40 4.60 4.00
097.3030 3 Connect the Dots [15-1] W 3rd - 5.80
096.7114 4 Melody Pomeroy [15-1]
*Scratch* 8 Fionetta [3-1]
*Scratch* 6 Rosa Carina [5-1]

03/02/16, TAM, Race 10, 4:55 ET
1M [Turf] 1.33.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $14,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- fm Firm
100.0000 :6: .Wild Aspen Flower [3-1] SFEWL 3rd - 3.40 maybe "sent" a little early, Chelsey?
099.2751 :12: Descarado [9/2 * ] T 1st - 4.60 3.20 2.60
097.6104 :3: Freed Spirit [4-1] 2nd - 6.20 3.60
097.4799 :10: Dad'ssilverpitcher [8-1] JC
097.3229 5 Don'tpassjudgement [5-1]
096.9253 8 Its All You [6-1]
096.7888 7 Chastity [15-1]
096.7888 1 Go Heat [15-1]
096.2759 2 Kool Kenai [10-1] 4th
095.0593 9 Charming Emily [9/2]
*Scratch* 4 Heard the News [30-1]
*Scratch* 14 Grecian Lady [20-1]
*Scratch* 13 Samra I Am [30-1]
*Scratch* 11 Sylver Magic [5-1]