Downhill Dreams 03Mar2016 SA R5

[VigorsTheGrey]

Some preliminary info on SA R5 schedule on 03Mar2016...

Team members please add any additional info you can import at this time...

As more info becomes available please post it on this thread. We want to begin picking this race apart as soon as possible...Thank you, Vigors.

5th Race. (CS2) MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Purse $56,000 (Plus up to $16,800 to Cal-Breds) About Six And One Half Furlongs(Hillside Turf Course)(Rail at 20 Feet)
For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Four Years Old and Upward.
1 DIAL A DATE (L) '11 M 123 Baze, T Warren B. Williamson Carla Gaines
2 LIRICA HEAT (ARG) (L) '10 M 123 Perez, F Barry Abrams Barry Abrams
3 GYMNAST JADIE (L) '12 F 123 Kruse, C. Vann or Sauci Belvoir Vann Belvoir
4 BOAT DRINKS (L) '12 F 123 Lezcano, A Doubledown Stables, Inc. John Sadler
5 STYLISTIC (L) '10 M 123 Desormeaux, K The Elwood Johnston Trust Kenneth Black
6 SILVER STARLIGHT (L) '12 F 123 Gonzalez, S Haymes or Ryan or Sterling Stables Doug O'Neill
7 SPIRIT OF ECSTASY (L) '12 F *118 Lopez, D. C. John & Diane Fradkin Michael McCarthy
8 MYSTERIOUS MIRACLE (L) '12 F 123 Prat, F A Venneri Racing, Inc. Philip D' Amato
9 LOOKINFORADANGER (L) '12 F 123 Bejarano, R Kretz Racing, LLC George Papaprodromou
10 SWEET AVA JANE (L) '11 M 123 Nicolas, G 956 Ranch, Inc. Paula S. Capestro
--Also Eligibles--
11 VICTORIA FALLS (L) '12 F 123 Van Dyke, D Carmody & Frankham Jorge Gutierrez

[mrhorseplayer]

think we can all agree to toss the fts with kruse

[VigorsTheGrey]

think we can all agree to toss the fts with kruse

GYMNAST JADIE : sold at auction Fall 2013 for $32,000 then resold later July 2015 for $4000...

[VigorsTheGrey]

PP's

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/DougOneill/O'NEILL+DOUG/9999/summary.html

[ReplayRandall]

March 3rd- Race#5- Santa Anita, scroll down to find:

http://www.tlore.net/trainers/oneill/public/brisnet.cfm

[VigorsTheGrey]

Lookinforadanger

Early speed; 2nd start off layoff; race recency; 2 course prior experience
Best turf speed close to winning average speed; Bejarano stays on; dirt route to turf sprint; jockey/ trainer last 60 days 67% win rate

[VigorsTheGrey]

Dail a Date: Carla Gaines 5 year old mare out of Arte Schiller with 1 debut race at Del Mar5 furlong turf sprint, tight at the half, rallied between. Broke from 2 hole that day but gets rail today. Last week rail negative bias improved; solid 11 works since raced. She should relish extra 1.5 furlongs :)

[NorCalGreg]

Lookinforadanger

Early speed; 2nd start off layoff; race recency; 2 course prior experience
Best turf speed close to winning average speed; Bejarano stays on; dirt route to turf sprint; jockey/ trainer last 60 days 67% win rate


Everytime I look at that list---I sort of mentally flash on the 2 LIRICA HEAT. I'm not psychic at all, the name just kinda pops. I see she's a 6yr old Maiden, maybe she raced up here @ GGF--
I'm posting to say--the data files aren't available yet, for that race--when they are I should be able to contribute something a little more solid, Vig.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Everytime I look at that list---I sort of mentally flash on the 2 LIRICA HEAT. I'm not psychic at all, the name just kinda pops. I see she's a 6yr old Maiden, maybe she raced up here @ GGF--
I'm posting to say--the data files aren't available yet, for that race--when they are I should be able to contribute something a little more solid, Vig.


NCG, Thanks. a question...I dont know if we should keep this thread as one thread or separate each 6.5 furlong turf race by date and start fresh with each race. I sometimes think its better to leave all races on one tread for future reference and easy back checks...what do you think? Will do what you think is best. Vig.

[Southbaygent]

Either way and wherever the thread is I'll lurk and post if I have something to say. It's my favorite course, I used to nail it years ago but I've been away from the handicap game, getting back into it last 12 months.

Matter of fact I'll be there live on track at SA 3/3 for R5 so will be watching this thread!!

[VigorsTheGrey]

Boat Drinks: $300k purchase John Sadler 4 year old filly has 2 places and 2 shows over turf course cuts back to sprint; sharp middle move last race; 4 works since raced.

[mrhorseplayer]

only playing this race cause its in the early pk4 sequence unless I play the pk5 however not playing the verticals

[NorCalGreg]

I'm out of my league here....my handicapping "style" was formed for the lower-level claimers I'm far more comfortable with. Having said that--here goes:

My pick is the :9: LOOKINFORDANGER 8-1 ML. As you can see..I only consider the last race. First thing I notice with 'Danger...those nice, even pace figs. That's a big positive, shows a good, solid race last out. You don't want to see big swings in the pace line---up or down.

Another solid angle: Highest last LATE fig, and less than 2 lengths back at the 1st call. That's huge.

Also--back in 13 days, so assume condition is good. Not to mention the TOP Trainer/Jockey individual win% total of 44.

Anything above 7/2 is a gift with 'Danger, so I'll definitely get down on this one.
This is how I 'cap the cheap claimers, and not particularly good with maidens anyway. We'll see how my "claimer" method works with the more elite set.

[Winger]

:4: Boat Drinks has come close to breaking her maiden in this race a few times.

:5: Stylistic will likely improve in her 2nd race on the grass.

:8: Mysterious Miracle's trainer, Phil D'Amato is having a great meet, and has won 5 downhill races so far this meet.

:8: w/ :4: :5: Exacta Key Box

[VigorsTheGrey]

Where has Silver Starlight been the whole year? Doug O'Neil trained filly has a good 2nd 2 back and now drop class from a stakes race. O'Neil puts rider Santiago Gonzales up Hot trainer/ jock combo last 14 days....thinking this ones live...wish I had more info on this one ...a clocker's report would be helpful....Worth a check in post parade and saddling area for clues..top filly out of 5 out of marino marini sire oct 2013 sale for $47K.

[azeri98]

I like :1: :4: and :10:

[Stillriledup]

The F Prat horse is the winner.

You're welcome. :D

[Southbaygent]

I like Pratts's horse too. I will do something with:

:1: :4: :8:

:1: = ML fav? So I'll look for value on the boards

[VigorsTheGrey]

Where has Silver Starlight been the whole year? Doug O'Neil trained filly has a good 2nd 2 back and now drop class from a stakes race. O'Neil puts rider Santiago Gonzales up Hot trainer/ jock combo last 14 days....thinking this ones live...wish I had more info on this one ...a clocker's report would be helpful....Worth a check in post parade and saddling area for clues..top filly out of 5 out of marino marini sire oct 2013 sale for $47K.

Still would like to understand where well regarded Silver Starlight has been the last year and what the reasons are for the gap....O'Neil just scored last time with Guns Loaded on this course so you know he knows how to get them pointed for this course....Gonzales up...thinking lighting strikes twice with similar 1st to pounce on leader strategy...

[mrhorseplayer]

do like the 1 however on the rail tossing in pk4 , have to toss somewhere, using 6,8,9 . 6 because Oniel might have this one ready with jock have to take a shot, using the 8 trainer and jock are crushing it on the downhill and of course 9 with bejarano staying on breaking on outside should get a good trip.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Is there a consensus to pass this race? I am going to...too many unknowns...although some of you feel there's value here...this would be a good race to explore the reasons to pass or to play...If I was going to play I would dutch 2 horses: Silver starlight and

[VigorsTheGrey]

Is there a consensus to pass this race? I am going to PASS...too many unknowns...although some of you feel there's value here...this would be a good race to explore the reasons to pass or to play..

If I was going to play I would dutch 2 horses: Silver starlight and Lookinforadanger

[biggestal99]

My pick is the :9: LOOKINFORDANGER 8-1 ML. As you can see..I only consider the last race. First thing I notice with 'Danger...those nice, even pace figs. That's a big positive, shows a good, solid race last out. You don't want to see big swings in the pace line---up or down.


This race shows how people come up with the same horse with different angles, one of my pet angles is 2nd off the layoff with a horse that has shown improvement with that move before. Ran a 75 BEYER last spring. should be able to do maybe a 78 here and thats good enough to win here.

Moved up 10 BEYER points on her second start on March 14th last year.

needed her last and is now set for best. :-)

Cycle play.

Allan

[whodoyoulike]

I like :8: mysterious miracle (4/1) and :10: sweet ava jane (6/1)

But:

:8: may not like turf and/or the distance so therefore would like more than (4/1) but doubt it;

:10: appears to like the turf but is a 5yo mdn with 4 prev races so probably something is physically wrong with her and only 1 work in a month since last.

I'll go with the :10: @ (6/1) or greater.

[Delta Cone]

An interesting longshot is the :7: Spirit of Ecstasy

The dam has thrown nothing but runners, including Cambiocorsa, a $500k earner who loved the hill, and California Flag, winner of $1.2 million, including the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint down the hill. There are several other very good runners in the pedigree.

One odd thing, she shows a series of workouts at SA, then her last work was at GG. They sent her up there for some reason, then decided to send her back down to SA. Not sure what to make of that.

Also note the runner up in her debut came back to win her next start.

I'm willing to give the horse a shot and would be very interested at anything near the morning line of 20-1.

[NorCalGreg]

This race shows how people come up with the same horse with different angles, one of my pet angles is 2nd off the layoff with a horse that has shown improvement with that move before. Ran a 75 BEYER last spring. should be able to do maybe a 78 here and thats good enough to win here.

Moved up 10 BEYER points on her second start on March 14th last year.

needed her last and is now set for best. :-)

Cycle play.

Allan

have you noticed, when angles mesh--instead of "colliding" that makes each angle more powerful...forget about that one-run wonder BOAT DRINKS--we got ourselves a solid pick, Allen :ThmbUp:

.........And currently 6-1 --it's Christmas in March

[Nitro]

Off the T-board, let's try the following:

SA

Race #5 - 5-8 W/ 1-2-9

GL

[098poi]

This is a tough one

Ex Box :1:,:2:,:5:

[ultracapper]

There's a lot to like about #1 Dial a Date. TBaze on the hill on a horse with plenty of speed to get to the rail once they get out of the right hand turn is a good place to start.

[098poi]

This is a tough one

Ex Box :1:,:2:,:5:

I bombed but I think a few of you had the right idea.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Kudos to all who had Boat Drinks!

[Nitro]

Off the T-board, let's try the following:

SA

Race #5 - 5-8 W/ 1-2-9

GL


Results:

R #5 = 4-8-5-9-2 - – Nothing in that one – Winner took the late money!

I should have posted at 4 mins to post.

#5 ran well & the big LS (60/1) closed a ton!

[ultracapper]

Gotta love those cutbacks on the hill.

[Winger]

:4: Boat Drinks has come close to breaking her maiden in this race a few times.

:5: Stylistic will likely improve in her 2nd race on the grass.

:8: Mysterious Miracle's trainer, Phil D'Amato is having a great meet, and has won 5 downhill races so far this meet.

:8: w/ :4: :5: Exacta Key Box

I should've bet the trifecta.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I should've bet the trifecta.
Thanks to you we are now 5 for 5 in the downhill series with someone posting the winner! You had all top three, quite the accomplishment in this field!

I mentioned Boat Drinks also early in the thread but passed the race....

My selection Silver Starlet broke real slow and was only in neutral in the lane.
Vigors.

[NorCalGreg]

have you noticed, when angles mesh--instead of "colliding" that makes each angle more powerful...forget about that one-run wonder BOAT DRINKS--we got ourselves a solid pick, Allen :ThmbUp:

.........And currently 6-1 --it's Christmas in March


Well that one blew up in my face....career "hanger" rates, and blows on by them all. That's why I'm not rich (not the ONLY reason lol)