Simple... No H'capping Required

[JackS]

This is a misnomer to be applied to only the most difficult and at times impossible races to handicap. Race day situations and race make-ups that don't lend themselves to routine capping. Examples would be high priced and experienced horses in a race carded for the turf but will today be run on dirt. Another would be lowly MCL's with multiple starts in which handicapping would reveal all horses entered would dead heat for last. In the first example (which I've run into more than once) nice horses coming from all parts of the country, the first attempts at a reasonable line becomes obviuosly impossible the first minute your glance at the Form. Your two choices- avoid the race or look for something simple. Bayer ratings are a very small part in my betting life but in this case , It's the only factor I'll use. The play- Highest dirt Beyer for associated distance sprint/route in the DRF. This works because the public will be just as miffed as you but, they will spend their handicapping time splitting hairs to find an edge in class. The second example- MCL's, The play- First call fraction adjusted by lenghts. The reasoning- The horse in front early in a miserable race like this will probably win. There it is, Simple, No Handicapping Required.

[BeatTheChalk]

It has happened to me 1000 times since 1954 .. when I made
my first bet and bought my first system... YOUR PLAY ALWAYS
WINS...the First time You try it !! Yup...Just happened to me
again. I ran a Maiden Claimer from Calder - that I had in my
data base. The winner was Number 2 in the First Fraction..which
is fine with me .. I always bet two horses if the odds are right. Was also number 1 at the First call. Horse went off at like
5 to 1. Here we go !! Let's see what happens....cheers :)

[JohnGalt1]

For races where horses come from many tracks I use Pars Plus from Cynthia Publishing. It's a great aid with the Claiming Crown and Breeder's Cup in particular.

If is race is taken off the turn I only use dirt running lines and totally ignore turf lines. The crowd usually bets the morning line and sometimes longshots are logical play as they would be favorites if orginally carded for the dirt.

[JackS]

jg- This looks suspiciously like handicapping. The addition of pars alters the recipie. Sorry, no handicaping allowed.

[JohnGalt1]

Jack

You state the factor you most rely on in turf carded races moved to the main track are Beyer figs. That's also handicapping in my my opinion. If you use the Form you are handicapping.

Not handicapping is what people do who buy the tip sheets or bet greys or funny names.

Maybe I missed something in your post, sorry.

I can't bet a race I don't handicap.

[JackS]

jg- Both examples represent uncommon circumstances. I will continue to throughly handicapp the more common races. Play or pass, handicapp if you like. In these two situations, you may be wasting your time. Then again, maybe not. The purpose here was to quickly reduce two difficult situations into one simple number and a possible win at any odds.