Notice anything peculiar about 6-1/2F races?

[NorCalGreg]

Like for instance---my regular sprint handicapping isn't very effective @ this distance. I'm really stumped by this. It's the same as 6F (which I've made that distance my "specialty"), except added AT THE BEGINNING is the extra .5f.

Hell, I can spit a half furlong....okay I can't since it comes out to 220 yards.

There was a horse @ Delta today, 1st Race--YES ITS BETTS..my best handicapping showed this one a no-brainer, it would daylight this incredibly weak field....and it DID....until they turned for home, and the 6.5F effect took hold.
All of a sudden--that extra 220 yds, which they hadn't gotten to yet--started to wear the horse out. His 5-length lead disappeared, and 'BETTS settled for 2nd.

I noticed ALGORHYMIC yesterday @ SA....did not run the race I expected. Yes, it was another MD race, and won by a FTS. Any individual race isn't the point---it's common throughout.

But my question to the board is---has anyone else noticed a major difference in these 2 distances? How can they be markedly different? The finish line is in the same spot---they only moved the gate back a couple hundred yards.

In 6F races..at 90% of the tracks in America....if you can find the horse that will have the lead at the top--you're gonna cash alot of tickets---that doesn't seem to be the case, at 6.5.

Below is the Delta Race from today \l/

[EMD4ME]

Like for instance---my regular sprint handicapping isn't very effective @ this distance. I'm really stumped by this. It's the same as 6F (which I've made that distance my "specialty"), except added AT THE BEGINNING is the extra .5f.

Hell, I can spit a half furlong....okay I can't since it comes out to 220 yards.

There was a horse @ Delta today, 1st Race--YES ITS BETTS..my best handicapping showed this one a no-brainer, it would daylight this incredibly weak field....and it DID....until they turned for home, and the 6.5F effect took hold.
All of a sudden--that extra 220 yds, which they hadn't gotten to yet--started to wear the horse out. His 5-length lead disappeared, and 'BETTS settled for 2nd.

I noticed ALGORHYMIC yesterday @ SA....did not run the race I expected. Yes, it was another MD race, and won by a FTS. Any individual race isn't the point---it's common throughout.

But my question to the board is---has anyone else noticed a major difference in these 2 distances? How can they be markedly different? The finish line is in the same spot---they only moved the gate back a couple hundred yards.

In 6F races..at 90% of the tracks in America....if you can find the horse that will have the lead at the top--you're gonna cash alot of tickets---that doesn't seem to be the case, at 6.5.

Below is the Delta Race from today \l/

Very nice write up, thread and thoughts NCG.

Yes, I hate the 6 1/2 F. It adds a wrench that sometimes becomes a guess. It all depends though on circumstance. Every race is different, as you well know. Every track has it's nuances as well.

I try and stay away from 6 1/2 races but sometimes you have no choice as a P4P5P6 player.

[VigorsTheGrey]

He should have held up...Track has play to early types all week 54% Early style. DId the horse have any wins at that distance in past?

here'e the 5th at 6.5 don't have 1st race but style stats are same.
vig

[VigorsTheGrey]

He should have held up...Track has play to early types all week 54% Early style. DId the horse have any wins at that distance in past?

here'e the 5th at 6.5 don't have 1st race but style stats are same.
vig

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/SUMMER+BIRD/2006/summary.html

[NorCalGreg]

He should have held up...Track has play to early types all week 54% Early style. DId the horse have any wins at that distance in past?

here'e the 5th at 6.5 don't have 1st race but style stats are same.
vig

This particular race was for Maidens, Vig....but it's a problem in all divisions.

[Stillriledup]

The 6.5 at Delta is a 2 turn race, same at Charlestown, it's harder to wire at two turns because speed horses need to rush fast for position, be slowed up 2 times and re-kick, it's a different race than a 1 turn sprint.

[dasch]

Like for instance---my regular sprint handicapping isn't very effective @ this distance. I'm really stumped by this. It's the same as 6F (which I've made that distance my "specialty"), except added AT THE BEGINNING is the extra .5f.

Hell, I can spit a half furlong....okay I can't since it comes out to 220 yards.

There was a horse @ Delta today, 1st Race--YES ITS BETTS..my best handicapping showed this one a no-brainer, it would daylight this incredibly weak field....and it DID....until they turned for home, and the 6.5F effect took hold.
All of a sudden--that extra 220 yds, which they hadn't gotten to yet--started to wear the horse out. His 5-length lead disappeared, and 'BETTS settled for 2nd.

I noticed ALGORHYMIC yesterday @ SA....did not run the race I expected. Yes, it was another MD race, and won by a FTS. Any individual race isn't the point---it's common throughout.

But my question to the board is---has anyone else noticed a major difference in these 2 distances? How can they be markedly different? The finish line is in the same spot---they only moved the gate back a couple hundred yards.

In 6F races..at 90% of the tracks in America....if you can find the horse that will have the lead at the top--you're gonna cash alot of tickets---that doesn't seem to be the case, at 6.5.

Below is the Delta Race from today \l/

Don't count that race against Algorythmic as the whole situation surrounding that race was pretty crazy. Blanc was listed to ride her on the overnight but was changed to a filler rider(Kerwin John) at scratch time on Wednesday because they put in to scratch Algorythmic from that race as they wanted to re-enter her in a turf race on Sunday. She was then considered "stuck" and likely to scratch on Wednesday. At the same time the rider on Briarctic Gal was changed from Verenzuela to Blanc(since he had been riding this horse also I assume he didnt want to lose the mount if Algorythmic was going to scratch).Then the race didn't go on Sunday so she was REALLY stuck in the race and Blanc had already changed his mount!

I was going to use her as a single and after everything that went on I completely threw her out!

[NorCalGreg]

The 6.5 at Delta is a 2 turn race, same at Charlestown, it's harder to wire at two turns because speed horses need to rush fast for position, be slowed up 2 times and re-kick, it's a different race than a 1 turn sprint.
Appreciate the response, SRU.....the point is still about the distance, though. I could have found any number of races from venues that don't have a bullring.

And furthermore...who builds a track with a 6F circumference? They try to save money on the extra dirt?

[NorCalGreg]

Don't count that race against as the whole situation surrounding that race was pretty crazy. Blanc was listed to ride her on the overnight but was changed to a filler rider(Kerwin John) at scratch time on Wednesday because they put in to scratch Algorythmic from that race as they wanted to re-enter her in a turf race on Sunday. She was then considered "stuck" and likely to scratch on Wednesday. At the same time the rider on Briarctic Gal was changed from Verenzuela to Blanc(since he had been riding this horse also I assume he didnt want to lose the mount if Algorythmic was going to scratch).Then the race didn't go on Sunday so she was REALLY stuck in the race and Blanc had already changed his mount!

I was going to use her as a single and after everything that went on I completely threw her out!

THAT is the very race that got me to thinking about 6.5F difference. Suddenly realized--I don't recall doing well @ 6 1/2. That FTS winner...think Darrel Vienna has seen better days (haven't we all?) Looked at his 1-50 record with FTS and tossed it.

I have a certain pace method that's decent--Algorythmic appeared to be chasing, instead of stalking, If you get my meaning.

I asked Ellis Starr about this 6.5 "phenomenon"--he may try to weigh in on this thread. Be interesting to see what the ubercapper has to say.

[ultracapper]

.5 furlongs is only 110 yards. 220 yards is a furlong, 1/8th of a mile.

[TBD]

IMO 6.5f is where pace handicapping begins to have an effect over speed handicapping to some degree. I say to some degree because as SRU identified bull rings can be two turns at this distance. Also, some one mile tracks use a shoot to come to this distance. I have often wondered how horses handle the transition from the shoot to the main track.

[NorCalGreg]

IMO 6.5f is where pace handicapping begins to have an effect over speed handicapping to some degree. I say to some degree because as SRU identified bull rings can be two turns at this distance. Also, some one mile tracks use a shoot to come to this distance. I have often wondered how horses handle the transition from the shoot to the main track.

That's it....you summed it up TBD

"6.5f is where pace handicapping begins to have an effect over speed handicapping to some degree."

It's not EXACTLY a classic sprint--but too short a distance to be anything else. Some 'cappers specialize in 7 & 7.5F races...must be some that are experts @ 6.5.
I chose to give most of my attention to 6F's, mainly because they're plentiful.

I like the fact Aqueduct winter meet--they aren't able to run 6 1/2's--due to the inner configuration, I suppose. One less thing to worry about.

**note to Ucapper--my bad on that .5 yardage--good call

[mikesal57]

Races above 6 furlongs are a whole different animal and have characteristics that are necessary to win...like stamina..
Does "Yes" have the stamina to win a 6.5 race?
In the one race it did run...no
Then you say ...hey look at his last race...he was closing and just missed...

Look and read this chart on his last race...

At those odds , it would have been a pass..

[thaskalos]

The odd distance is the 7 furlong distance, IMO; the 6.5 furlongs isn't much of a problem for me. If anything, the 6.5 furlong race is a truer race...because the much-maligned closers have a little extra ground to work with. The big negative for me about the 7-furlong "sprints" is that those races are usually comprised of a frustrating mix of sprinters AND routers...and this apple/orange combination isn't a good fit for the handicapping that I like to do. The 6.5 furlong races don't share in this sprinter/router problem...so, I am thankful about that.

When a router is cutting back to a sprint...I much prefer that this sprint be a 6.5 or a 7 furlong sprint, rather than the more conventional 6 furlong variety. The same thing applies to sprinters stretching out to a route. A 6.5 or a 7 furlong sprinter fares better on the stretch-out than the 6-furlong sprinter does...IMO.

[green80]

I will say this about Delta, it is a deep, tiring track. Running 6.5 at delta takes the effort of a mile at some other tracks. Combine that with the 6.5 races being around 2 tight turns, you can't compare that with the 1 turn 6.5's at most tracks. Watch at the beginning of the meet at delta, some horses running 6f without problems at other tracks have trouble making 5f at Delta. It's another world down there.

[maddog42]

The 6.5 at Delta is a 2 turn race, same at Charlestown, it's harder to wire at two turns because speed horses need to rush fast for position, be slowed up 2 times and re-kick, it's a different race than a 1 turn sprint.

You are correct. I handicap 6.5 at Delta more like a route race. At other tracks (non bullring types) I treat it like a 6f.

[thaskalos]

You are correct. I handicap 6.5 at Delta more like a route race. At other tracks (non bullring types) I treat it like a 6f.
When you say that you handicap the 6.5 at Delta "like a route"...what do you mean?

[maddog42]

The odd distance is the 7 furlong distance, IMO; the 6.5 furlongs isn't much of a problem for me. If anything, the 6.5 furlong race is a truer race...because the much-maligned closers have a little extra ground to work with. The big negative for me about the 7-furlong "sprints" is that those races are usually comprised of a frustrating mix of sprinters AND routers...and this apple/orange combination isn't a good fit for the handicapping that I like to do. The 6.5 furlong races don't share in this sprinter/router problem...so, I am thankful about that.

When a router is cutting back to a sprint...I much prefer that this sprint be a 6.5 or a 7 furlong sprint, rather than the more conventional 6 furlong variety. The same thing applies to sprinters stretching out to a route. A 6.5 or a 7 furlong sprinter fares better on the stretch-out than the 6-furlong sprinter does...IMO.

While I certainly agree with this, at Delta it is different. Using a 5f figure in a 6.5 race at Delta is asking for trouble. I will not use a 4.5 or 5f race to rate a horse at 6.5 and usually not at 6f either. These distance are worlds apart. I totally agree with the 7f having the tough mix of routers and sprinters, is hard to handicap. My percentage drops and I demand much higher odds.

[maddog42]

When you say that you handicap the 6.5 at Delta "like a route"...what do you mean?

First of all I know that the extra turn will kill some horses. I am very good at handicapping Evangeline, only fair at Delta. I have to skip a lot of races at Delta and demand some experience at 6.5 or 7. I am really not the person to speak with authority, but I do know what won't work.

[maddog42]

When you say that you handicap the 6.5 at Delta "like a route"...what do you mean? Let me elaborate further. The past 2 years I have done very well at Evangeline, mainly hitting big paying exactas. Then Evangeline closes and along comes pretty little Delta. The first year I lost a lot of money at Delta. This year I am almost breaking even. Now you may wonder what gives me the right to speak with any authority about Delta, well that is a good point. But I do know you can't handicap Sprints the same way.

[thaskalos]

Let me elaborate further. The past 2 years I have done very well at Evangeline, mainly hitting big paying exactas. Then Evangeline closes and along comes pretty little Delta. The first year I lost a lot of money at Delta. This year I am almost breaking even. Now you may wonder what gives me the right to speak with any authority about Delta, well that is a good point. But I do know you can't handicap Sprints the same way.

That's not what I meant at all...and such a point wouldn't be a "good point", IMO. It would be a TERRIBLE point. Why should we wait until we are wildly profitable, before we can talk "authoritatively" about some aspect of this game?

When you said that you handicap the 6.5-fourlong races as if they were routes, I wondered if that meant that you readily accept a 6.5 sprinter when he shows up in a Delta route...that's all.

Yes...the 6.5F sprint doesn't play out like a 5F sprint. But, IMO...it can't be compared with the routes either.

[NorCalGreg]

I will say this about Delta, it is a deep, tiring track. Running 6.5 at delta takes the effort of a mile at some other tracks. Combine that with the 6.5 races being around 2 tight turns, you can't compare that with the 1 turn 6.5's at most tracks. Watch at the beginning of the meet at delta, some horses running 6f without problems at other tracks have trouble making 5f at Delta. It's another world down there.

I don't usually watch races or replays---I've trained myself to study charts, and visualize a race. That happens to work for me.
You are, as far as I know....one of the most knowledgable board members--on the subject of Delta Downs, greenie. You must live out there in the swamps ;)

I have 6 and 6.5f's races as being pretty much the SAME THING in my mind....I never even noticed--Delta doesn't even offer a 6F race. Speed doesn't rule 6.5F's there--not like the incredible speed bias @ 5F.

I think I just solved --at least @ Delta--the mystery of the 6.5F race.
Take a look \/

[NorCalGreg]

I don't usually watch races or replays---I've trained myself to study charts, and visualize a race. That happens to work for me.
You are, as far as I know....one of the most knowledgable board members--on the subject of Delta Downs, greenie. You must live out there in the swamps ;)

I have 6 and 6.5f's races as being pretty much the SAME THING in my mind....I never even noticed--Delta doesn't even offer a 6F race. Speed doesn't rule 6.5F's there--not like the incredible speed bias @ 5F.

I think I just solved --at least @ Delta--the mystery of the 6.5F race.
Take a look \/


Was looking over "lone speed" horses, according to Pace Appraiser @ Delta in the 7th-- :6: NOBLE ASSET 30-1 qualifies @ 5F. We'll see how he does, with that huge speed bias.

[ubercapper]

I noticed ALGORHYMIC yesterday @ SA....did not run the race I expected. Yes, it was another MD race, and won by a FTS. Any individual race isn't the point---it's common throughout.



Regarding Algorhythmic, I too got sucked in thinking she would be a "lone f" and easily clear the field early then coast home.

In retrospect, her only other start was on the downhill turf and thinking that effort would be repeatable on dirt was a mistake. Additionally, as with many "need the lead" types, particularly young and/or lightly raced horses, once she did not make the lead she wanted, she found herself out of her comfort zone and quit.

Delta is unique in and of itself. I only play it as part of the Let 8 Ride contest at Twinspires and sometimes during Friday night handicapping contests but otherwise stay away from it because the pace of any given race makes no sense to me whatsoever, with no noticeable difference between one distance and another.

On the circuit I do handicap daily, Southern California, there is a big difference between 6 and 6 1/2 on dirt, the same way there's a big difference between 5 1/2 and 6.

Horses have a much tougher time leading start to finish at 6 1/2 than 6f in So. Cal. IMO. It's a whole different ball game at 7f, where a horse can get the lead, slow down a bit then re-break. That is, unless there are horses cutting back from two turns, who may have a good deal of late energy counter to the pacesetters and can run them down.

[NorCalGreg]

Regarding Algorhythmic, I too got sucked in thinking she would be a "lone f" and easily clear the field early then coast home.

In retrospect, her only other start was on the downhill turf and thinking that effort would be repeatable on dirt was a mistake. Additionally, as with many "need the lead" types, particularly young and/or lightly raced horses, once she did not make the lead she wanted, she found herself out of her comfort zone and quit.

Delta is unique in and of itself. I only play it as part of the Let 8 Ride contest at Twinspires and sometimes during Friday night handicapping contests but otherwise stay away from it because the pace of any given race makes no sense to me whatsoever, with no noticeable difference between one distance and another.

On the circuit I do handicap daily, Southern California, there is a big difference between 6 and 6 1/2 on dirt, the same way there's a big difference between 5 1/2 and 6.

Horses have a much tougher time leading start to finish at 6 1/2 than 6f in So. Cal. IMO. It's a whole different ball game at 7f, where a horse can get the lead, slow down a bit then re-break. That is, unless there are horses cutting back from two turns, who may have a good deal of late energy counter to the pacesetters and can run them down.


I had asked Ellis, if he had time--if he would weigh in a the 6F vs 6.5F debate, and only happened to mention Algorhymic's strange performance @ 6.5F @ SA. Since then, some others also chimed in about that same horse. Now I feel better :D -- since the ubercapper himself, Ellis Starr capped that race out exactly the same.
Now we need to get Andy Serling's take to complete the trifecta.
Was thinking about a 7.5F thread along the same lines.

[green80]

I don't usually watch races or replays---I've trained myself to study charts, and visualize a race. That happens to work for me.
You are, as far as I know....one of the most knowledgable board members--on the subject of Delta Downs, greenie. You must live out there in the swamps ;)

I have 6 and 6.5f's races as being pretty much the SAME THING in my mind....I never even noticed--Delta doesn't even offer a 6F race. Speed doesn't rule 6.5F's there--not like the incredible speed bias @ 5F.

I think I just solved --at least @ Delta--the mystery of the 6.5F race.
Take a look \/

Delta is not but a 6F track, so the start/finish line is too close to the first turn for 6F races. Watch a 6.5 race, they start from a chute. I'm in north Louisiana, about a 4-5 hour drive with no good roads to get to Delta.
Next month most of the Delta horses will go to Evangeline Downs where it is a whole new ballgame.

[thespaah]

Like for instance---my regular sprint handicapping isn't very effective @ this distance. I'm really stumped by this. It's the same as 6F (which I've made that distance my "specialty"), except added AT THE BEGINNING is the extra .5f.

Hell, I can spit a half furlong....okay I can't since it comes out to 220 yards.

There was a horse @ Delta today, 1st Race--YES ITS BETTS..my best handicapping showed this one a no-brainer, it would daylight this incredibly weak field....and it DID....until they turned for home, and the 6.5F effect took hold.
All of a sudden--that extra 220 yds, which they hadn't gotten to yet--started to wear the horse out. His 5-length lead disappeared, and 'BETTS settled for 2nd.

I noticed ALGORHYMIC yesterday @ SA....did not run the race I expected. Yes, it was another MD race, and won by a FTS. Any individual race isn't the point---it's common throughout.

But my question to the board is---has anyone else noticed a major difference in these 2 distances? How can they be markedly different? The finish line is in the same spot---they only moved the gate back a couple hundred yards.

In 6F races..at 90% of the tracks in America....if you can find the horse that will have the lead at the top--you're gonna cash alot of tickets---that doesn't seem to be the case, at 6.5.

Below is the Delta Race from today \l/
Not to pick, but it's an additional 110yds....Or 1/16th of a mile.
220 yds would be a furlong...

[NorCalGreg]

Not to pick, but it's an additional 110yds....Or 1/16th of a mile.
220 yds would be a furlong...

Yeah that was my bad----good lookin out, spaah :ThmbUp:

[thespaah]

Appreciate the response, SRU.....the point is still about the distance, though. I could have found any number of races from venues that don't have a bullring.

And furthermore...who builds a track with a 6F circumference? They try to save money on the extra dirt?
Well, there are lots of tracks, there used to be more, that conduct thoroughbred racing on surfaces less than a mile.
Some tracks at less than a mile.
Delta Downs, Pocono Downs( former) Several of the California Fair tracks, Hastings, Northlands ( Edmonton, AB) and a few others.

[NorCalGreg]

Well, there are lots of tracks, there used to be more, that conduct thoroughbred racing on surfaces less than a mile.
Some tracks at less than a mile.
Delta Downs, Pocono Downs( former) Several of the California Fair tracks, Hastings, Northlands ( Edmonton, AB) and a few others.

Say, is Delta the track where that jockey cut across the infield in the fog? He might not have gotten caught, but he popped out of the fog like a qtr mile in front of the field--I think the story goes. :lol:

[WoxFan]

We need diversity. If every track had the same layout, horse racing would be boring. Part of why I enjoy Austrailian, English & European racing is that most tracks are very different.

[EMD4ME]

We need diversity. If every track had the same layout, horse racing would be boring. Part of why I enjoy Austrailian, English & European racing is that most tracks are very different.


I agree, diversity is good and it adds complexity to the game. Variety is the spice of life...

The NYRA circuit offers some solid diversity. Belmont is the largest track in the USA. Then you go to the SPA which is 9F in circumference and then in the winter you get the 1M inner dirt track. It's important to know the nuances of each season.

1 thing I love about the inner track.......no 6 1/2 and no 7F races :lol: :lol:

[green80]

Say, is Delta the track where that jockey cut across the infield in the fog? He might not have gotten caught, but he popped out of the fog like a qtr mile in front of the field--I think the story goes. :lol:

Yes, Delta's the place. He didn't cut across the infield, he pulled his horse up in the stretch.( Like I said, for 6.5 and 7F races they start in a chute at the top of the stretch.) He actually pulled his horse up right in front of the grandstand at the top part of the stretch. The fog was so thick that night you could stand at the rail and couldn't see across the track. When he heard the horses coming around the final turn he galloped his horse past the wire. Most likely would have got by with it if he wouldn't have set a new track record.