Down the Hill Dreams

[VigorsTheGrey]

Here's a post that I hope catches on and stays for awhile:

Show me your data for the about 6.5 furlongs on hillside turf course at Santa Anita.

This is one of my favorite races and is specific enough that if we really gather some good data about it could lead to some serious scores from now on at the current SA meeting. There's been some history now already this year and maybe some of our PA experts can chime in about what works or what doesn't about this great race at the great race place!
Vigors

[VigorsTheGrey]

The next 6.5 furlong down the hill turf event is set for this Friday FEB26 2016.http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/CONGRATS/2000/summary.html...

Anybody see anything that catches the eye here?

[VigorsTheGrey]

The next 6.5 furlong down the hill turf event is set for this Friday FEB26 2016.http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/CONGRATS/2000/summary.html...

Anybody see anything that catches the eye here?

I was wondering if any of the PA pace experts here could tell me a little about St Joe Bay's chances in here...I think he is interesting: His back class is intriguing, but i'm unclear why trainer Peter Miller spots him here...that last bullet work says to me he is still fit from a sharp last race but can he go on turf? Thinking so but also think I should pass race as Bejarano's mount looks formidable at low odds...
Vigors

[ultracapper]

I was wondering if any of the PA pace experts here could tell me a little about St Joe Bay's chances in here...I think he is interesting: His back class is intriguing, but i'm unclear why trainer Peter Miller spots him here...that last bullet work says to me he is still fit from a sharp last race but can he go on turf? Thinking so but also think I should pass race as Bejarano's mount looks formidable at low odds...
Vigors

Tough spot to debut on this course. This is only his 2nd race against older foes, it's his 2nd race after an extended layoff, and only his 2nd turf start over all. Don't understand why Miller chose this race for him. I hate it when something like that doesn't make sense to me. His last race was pretty sharp, right back at 6f dirt makes better sense to me.

Many hurdles for a horse that looks primed for what will, on paper, look like a "bounce" if he doesn't run well.

This course is a "jockeys" course. Nakatani is probably the best rider alive at the moment on this course. Talamo, TBaze, and the newest member of the SoCal stud brigade, Gonzalez, who is on a horse that has done a mountain's worth of good work at this very unique trip. Even Alonzo Quinonez was able to direct this one down the hill successfully last autumn. Koriner has always given this horse some time after a poor outing, but brings him back in 3 weeks after that last disaster. In 11 starts on the course, he's been out of the money 5 times, the most recent 4 at this class level. Incline Village has a class challenge here, but Koriner bringing him back quick off the poor showing, the jock upgrade, the fact he runs forward on this course, and his over all affinity for the course, makes #6 Incline Village my choice. Pace shouldn't be too hot, but it should 21 large change, 44 large change. That's my take.

Funny how #6 is 5/1 ML and #7 12/1 ML, having come out of the same race, and on paper anyway, #7 is the horse that killed Incline Village, then ran on to light the board. Who knows what the ML maker is thinking there. Large difference in betting expectations considering what's right there in front of everybody's faces.

[RunForTheRoses]

Due to the right turn I favor outside posts. The inside runners that have success usually have speed.
Of course, you also have to favor o Es that ran well at the course distance before.

[mrhorseplayer]

tough to win out of post 1 and D Amato is winning at a very high % on the downhill.

[garyscpa]

11 looks pretty good.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I've read that, generally, horses with previous experience over this course have had an advantage especially if they have won over the course...But I have no data to confirm this. In this case 9 out of 10 entered have run on the course...only St Joe Bay has not run on the course.

...also, as a note I read that....

... "The race is actually 64.5 feet short of 6.5 furlongs or just over 6.4 furlongs."
Vig

[plainolebill]

tough to win out of post 1 and D Amato is winning at a very high % on the downhill.

D'Amato doesn't have a horse in this race.

[plainolebill]

Rails are at 20, the inside horses need to work out trips behind the speed in this race, leaning toward Daddy DT if he goes off at or above his ML, reasonable post, competent rider, good trainer. He's shown some class in the past and evidently has had some problems, he had a fast work before his comeback race. I don't like taking any kind of a short price on this tricky course.

[azeri98]

Rails are at 20, the inside horses need to work out trips behind the speed in this race, leaning toward Daddy DT if he goes off at or above his ML, reasonable post, competent rider, good trainer. He's shown some class in the past and evidently has had some problems, he had a fast work before his comeback race. I don't like taking any kind of a short price on this tricky course.
I agree with you I like Daddy D T as well.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Rails are at 20, the inside horses need to work out trips behind the speed in this race, leaning toward Daddy DT if he goes off at or above his ML, reasonable post, competent rider, good trainer. He's shown some class in the past and evidently has had some problems, he had a fast work before his comeback race. I don't like taking any kind of a short price on this tricky course.

Ok i'm sold on Daddy DT after I got to wondering why trainer john sadler would now spot this charge in another 6.5 turf spring after specializing in the mile for 7 times! If his comeback was a prep than why not spot him in a mile turf race for his 2nd on the comeback trail....The answer in my mind may be that Sadler thinks Daddy DT can win at this distance...if this is the case. that is good enough for me....thanks guys...I'll be posting the next 6.5 turf downhill spring shortly so we all can pick it apart too...and maybe, just maybe this thread might catch on!

[ultracapper]

Preface: I make my picks after watching a lot of pertinent replays, and I haven't done that with this race. I also have zero intention of betting it. But I do like the handicapping exercise, and that's why I'm involved.

Having said that, I don't know why you guys are gravitating towards the #8. I love that Sadler showed confidence in the horse with all the stake entries, but the most damning evidence about the horse is just that, Sadler's confidence. He debuted at this trip with $75K mdncl. This was a $525K auction purchase. In that race, zero support at the windows, and he ran to it. They then move him into a $100K stake ON THE STRETCHOUT, and the horse gets hammered at the windows like everybody that's ever smelled horse doo-doo knew what was coming. This horse has always been meant for 2 turns, and the fact of the truncated 3yo campaign, and now back to back sprints, throwing on blinkers this time as some kind of assistance in getting him going, is telling me that I wouldn't be surprised to see Sadler punt on this one sooner than later.

We'll see.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:1: Hawkedon looks like an almost must include on exotics.

The :3: Horse Laugh is an interesting price horse for me. Has ran well on this course before, and beat some pretty good horses here last spring. Working solidly, and with an expected hot pace could be ready to run big.

[VigorsTheGrey]

:1: Hawkedon looks like an almost must include on exotics.

The :3: Horse Laugh is an interesting price horse for me. Has ran well on this course before, and beat some pretty good horses here last spring. Working solidly, and with an expected hot pace could be ready to run big.

Now I see...your point on #3 Horse Laugh. His race 14 may15 last year could be the tell tale here...had nakatani up then. Great 2nd at 30-1.

3 sharp works since last race agapito up who has to hustle abit for his wins...hmmmm yes, I understand your reasoning here and I agree the #1 is a must use exotics partner...

[VigorsTheGrey]

...And for #3 Horse Laugh, this is 3rd start after lay-off which corresponds to that good effort 2nd also...maybe trainers intentions are for a good effort here at a price?

[mrhorseplayer]

have to use the 1 with bejarano , that won out of post 1 before.

[shots]

#6 Incline Village
All three wins at distance, Can bounce back after last race.

[mrhorseplayer]

D'Amato doesn't have a horse in this race.


I know just throwing it out there

[VigorsTheGrey]

I was wondering if any of the PA pace experts here could tell me a little about St Joe Bay's chances in here...I think he is interesting: His back class is intriguing, but i'm unclear why trainer Peter Miller spots him here...that last bullet work says to me he is still fit from a sharp last race but can he go on turf? Thinking so but also think I should pass race as Bejarano's mount looks formidable at low odds...
Vigors

Hawkedon wins, St.Joe Bay 2nd, Daddy D T3rd, and Horse's Laugh 4th! The $1 Superfecta paid $996.60!

Wow! I sure hope at least one of us had that combination....Came in almost exactly as the thread was developed...I like St.Joes Bay and Hawkedon...Plainolbill likes Daddy DT....Lemon Drop Husher like Hawkedon also and Horse's Laugh..

I ended up making the crucial mistake of not having St. Joe' Bay, the horse that I originally liked in the 2nd spot...How disappointing is THAT! So I didn't cash any of my bets! Wow! Hope some of you guys nailed it...it was all here!

[VigorsTheGrey]

There are Downhill races Saturday Feb 27 2016.

R=6

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/DougOneill/O'NEILL+DOUG/9999/summary.html

[VigorsTheGrey]

There are Downhill races Saturday Feb 27 2016.

R=6

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/DougOneill/O'NEILL+DOUG/9999/summary.html


R=9

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Vinery/MORE+THAN+READY/1997/summary.html

[Alwaysonpoint36]

I like your enthusiasm. So much sarcasm and one-upsmanship here. Nice to see someone excited to discuss instead of disprove

[VigorsTheGrey]

R=6

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/DougOneill/O'NEILL+DOUG/9999/summary.html

[VigorsTheGrey]

Saturday's Sensational Star stakes feature Alert Bay and Forrest Chatter: The discussion is now open...let see how good we are at picking the top four finishers for this race...It's tough to get beyond Forrest Chatter's 5 for 5 record on the turf course but lets give it a try. Alert Bay will probably go off slightly lower at 5/2...An Early/Presser type is my favorite style in these races and the stats bear this out with 40% winners with this style, follow by 30% Late, 23% Early, and only 7% Sustained or Deep Closers.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/DougOneill/O'NEILL+DOUG/9999/summary.html

[VigorsTheGrey]

Race 9 open as well with potential for good price but tough to handicap...
Interesting #11 How Unusual with Elliot up, Barry Abrams trained 3 yr filly by Unusual Heat....Exits stakes, not likely to stay at 6-1, she was off slow and bobbled break but managed to close 5 lengths anyway on her first start

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Vinery/MORE+THAN+READY/1997/summary.html

[mrhorseplayer]

2-26 sequence was probably the lowest paying pk6 Ive ever seen lol, only posted this as the downhill was part of it.

[azeri98]

R6- I think the :7: and :9: will be there, :9: might not be as good as he was but in this field is very solid. :7: is solid at the distance and likes the downhill, I will also throw the :6: in the mix also good at the distance and likes the downhill and I really like the :2: coming off the pace, I think there is enough speed in here for the :2: to run well, tough race.

R9-not much to go on here but I would say :9: :6: :5: :1: . :5: :1: come out of a key race, :6: is by City Zip who has sired some pretty good turf horses, he tries turf for the first time.

[mrhorseplayer]

6th like the 9 Alert Bay looks like hes ready, gets an outside post could get up in time.

glad we get 2 downhills in this late pk4

[dkbigsky]

R 6 I like the conversation breaking this down. I think the :8: will get the lead adn be hard to catch. I like the :8: :7: :9: in a tri box

[dkbigsky]

R9 I really like the :10: Steadily improving tried the dirt and ran 3rd. I like the Stormy Atlantic on the grass.

[VigorsTheGrey]

:10: Boozer has definitely been pointed for this race by trainer Mark Glatt. He deadheated for third in this race last year after a similar route, route , sprint pattern...is 3 wins for 7 starts down the hill and 7 for 7 in the money...and has two nice works since last race...Stevens remains on board..gets outside post and this charger has the coveted E/P running style...Vig

[illinoisbred]

I'm going to give the #6 McHeat a play in the 6th. Think there is enough speed present here to help to his chances though probably still needs a little better effort than his 2nd race back. The 9th I'll probably pass though like the #11,#5,#6 pretty much in that order. Interesting thread Vigors!!

[VigorsTheGrey]

I like this horse too...the lightly raced 4 yr gelding by Unusual Heat has plenty of upside...2 wins down the hill with proven route to sprint angle in tow...6-1 seems about right for him, don't think he'll go higher...but using him anyway..

[VigorsTheGrey]

R9 I really like the :10: Steadily improving tried the dirt and ran 3rd. I like the Stormy Atlantic on the grass.

:1: Amber Louise ...a likely pacesetter will be gunning from the start with Candyman Maldonaldo back on board...after a good third last time..winner of that race Lady Vale came back to win....bet she's in front at top of the lane and if she can cut the corner well with her past experience over the course maybe she can hold on...

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R6 :7: Forest Chatter has made a career running down the hill as he is 5 for 5 on this stretch of ground.

Ran a blistering 1:11 and 4 last time on this track which whips everybody in this field. While he is coming off the bench, he has had success doing that in the past. The horse to beat. All other contenders look to come form the outside, and I've burned enough money on :11: Poshsky. :7: :9: :10: :11: in some form or fashion, and a very likely pass.

R9 :9: Newcomb ships in from the East after nearly winning a 5.5 Furlong sprint. She'll be in the mix, but not sure about the 7/2 odds. Don't really like any of the other "experienced" horses, and the FTS :12: Lovely Raquel gets Santiago on board with Scat Daddy breeding. I like her training pattern coming in, and she is worth a shot at 12/1 if we can get it. The :4: Miz Rizen is a bomber that could spice up some exotics on the bottom.

[VigorsTheGrey]

:2: solid wager at 12-1 now 3rd start into comeback with 2 good works stakes winner and victor espinoza and peter miller but no wins on turf...prefer others but still intersting

[VigorsTheGrey]

:10: The Boozer 1st in a trilling finish.
:8: Richards Boy 2nd
:7: Forest Chatter 3rd
:6: Mc Heat 4th

Another fruitful discussion put me on the winner...exciting race, all our horses were there except Alert Bay who ran out

Lets see about Race 9 coming up next!

[VigorsTheGrey]

:11: How Unusual 1st
:1: Amber Louise 2nd
:9: Newcomb 3rd
:3: Firelight 4th

Another successful discussion highlighted the eventual winners!

Vigors