2016 MLB season over/under win totals

[Valuist]

Atlantis (Reno)
Arizona 84.5 Atlanta 65 Baltimore 80.5 Chicago Cubs 91.5 Chicago White Sox 80.5 Cincinnati 71 Cleveland 84 Colorado 68.5 Detroit 85 Houston 85.5 Kansas City 87 LA Angels 82.5 LA Dodgers 87 Miami 80.5 Milwaukee 71.5 Minnesota 77.5 NY Mets 88 NY Yankees 85 Oakland 75.5 Philly 66.5 Pittsburgh 87 San Diego 74 San Francisco 90 Seattle 83 St Louis 87.5 Toronto 87 Texas 86 Tampa Bay n/a Washington 87

Golden Nugget (Vegas)
Arizona 82 Atlanta 67 Baltimore 77 Boston 87.6 Chic Cubs 94 Chic White Sox 81 Cincinnati 72 Cleveland 85 Colorado 72 Detroit 81 Houston 87.5 Kansas City 84 LA Angels 81 LA Dodgers 90 Miami 79.5 Milwaukee 71 Minnesota 79 NY Mets 89 NY Yankees 85 Oakland 75.5 Philadelphia 65.5 Pittsburgh 86 San Diego 75 San Francisco 86 Seattle 83 St Louis 85 Tampa Bay 81.5 Texas n/a
Toronto n/a Washington n/a

Being closest to the Bay area, I can't help but wonder if that Giants 90 was shaded that way by Atlantis. Yes, they have a habit of winning World Series in even numbered years. But that 4 win differential makes the under 90 look to have some value. Baltimore was 80.5 at Atlantis and I believe that is also a bit on the high side.

The National League has some potentially horrible teams. You have Philly, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Colorado and Milwaukee all slated to lose 90 or more games. Because so many bottom feeders tend to sell off their assets at the deadline, hard to bet any of the bottom feeders over, although one or two are almost certain to surprise.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Atlantis (Reno)
Arizona 84.5 Atlanta 65 Baltimore 80.5 Chicago Cubs 91.5 Chicago White Sox 80.5 Cincinnati 71 Cleveland 84 Colorado 68.5 Detroit 85 Houston 85.5 Kansas City 87 LA Angels 82.5 LA Dodgers 87 Miami 80.5 Milwaukee 71.5 Minnesota 77.5 NY Mets 88 NY Yankees 85 Oakland 75.5 Philly 66.5 Pittsburgh 87 San Diego 74 San Francisco 90 Seattle 83 St Louis 87.5 Toronto 87 Texas 86 Tampa Bay n/a Washington 87

Golden Nugget (Vegas)
Arizona 82 Atlanta 67 Baltimore 77 Boston 87.6 Chic Cubs 94 Chic White Sox 81 Cincinnati 72 Cleveland 85 Colorado 72 Detroit 81 Houston 87.5 Kansas City 84 LA Angels 81 LA Dodgers 90 Miami 79.5 Milwaukee 71 Minnesota 79 NY Mets 89 NY Yankees 85 Oakland 75.5 Philadelphia 65.5 Pittsburgh 86 San Diego 75 San Francisco 86 Seattle 83 St Louis 85 Tampa Bay 81.5 Texas n/a
Toronto n/a Washington n/a

.

Made some money betting over on the Mets (83) last year. At this point in time, only UNDER on the Cubs interest me. They have a lot of games with the Cardinals and Pirates. UNDER for the Yankees also seems possible with their ancient lineup and dubious starting pitching -- but they always find a way.

Still too early, though. A lot of shaking out before opening day.

[barahona44]

If I were to bet one over it would be the Braves (Atlantis) and one under it would be the Royals (also Atlantis),The Royals were a great story but I dont think they're built for 3 straight playoff appearances.The Braves are weak but they play in a weak division.

[Valuist]

I do prefer unders in these bets. One over I would have to look at is Toronto over 87. The team won 93 games last year despite a MLB worst 15-28 record in one run games. I'm not buying into the alleged expected big turnaround for Boston, and I already see the Orioles as an under. Any improvement at all from the bullpen and Toronto will be very tough.

[reckless]

The NY Yankees at 85 ... is that number their win expectations or the average age of their starting lineup?

Seriously, the Yankees could make that number and over, especially since I agree with Valuist that both the Orioles and Red Sox might underachieve big time.

The NY Mets could be an over, too, because the conventional thinking is that the Mets will not be under the radar this year and won't sneak up on anyone.

While that thinking is understandable if David Wright is healthy all year and Yeonis Cespedes doesn't go goofy, plus their pitching.... Christ, a 100 wins is very possible.

[slimbo]

Miami is going to surprise alot of people this year

yelich is gonna go ham and get to 20/20

give the ball to capps the guy is a beast

[ReplayRandall]

The Nugget line of Baltimore at 77 will be a major OVER for me. With the acquisition of Yovani Gallardo to bolster their starting pitching staff, I'm looking at 85 wins minimum. That's more than double the expected rate for error of margin, which is 3.5 games.....

[slimbo]

The Nugget line of Baltimore at 77 will be a major OVER for me. With the acquisition of Yovani Gallardo to bolster their starting pitching staff, I'm looking at 85 wins minimum. That's more than double the expected rate for error of margin, which is 3.5 games.....

hes garbage. hes going to have to face the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox, and the concern far outweighs the potential reward

How about a line drive rate that hasn’t been below 20% since 2011

pass bud save your coin

[ReplayRandall]

hes garbage. hes going to have to face the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox, and the concern far outweighs the potential reward

How about a line drive rate that hasn’t been below 20% since 2011

pass bud save your coin

Thanks for the advice, sport. I think I'll DOUBLE my bet now.....See you in late September.

[slimbo]

Thanks for the advice, sport. I think I'll DOUBLE my bet now.....See you in late September.

hes going to give up monster homerun numbers in baltimore

clearly you know nothing about baseball, baltimore is one of the worst parks for pitchers 3 homers per game

his control is terrible

HAHA seriously talking about Yovani Gallardo? hilarious, stick to the horse racing part of this forum

[slimbo]

hes garbage


his k/9 past 4 seasons

2012 – 9.00
2013 – 7.17
2014 – 6.83
2015 – 5.91

maybe go check out fangraphs to get some baseball iq?

[slimbo]

ill go on

moving out of the AL West is a disaster, he wont get to face the astros or mariners who struck out the most

he has no command

you dont know baseball

[ReplayRandall]

clearly you know nothing about baseball, baltimore is one of the worst parks for pitchers 3 homers per game.

Great stat you gave for Camden Yards, as Baltimore ranked #3 in homers for all of MLB in 2015, with Toronto first. Last 2 years against Toronto head-up, 19-19. I like it that people like you exist, makes more money for me in all endeavors of sports, poker, financial markets and horse racing.....You haven't a clue sport, who you're talking to.

[slimbo]

Great stat you gave for Camden Yards, as Baltimore ranked #3 in homers for all of MLB in 2015, with Toronto first. Last 2 years against Toronto head-up, 19-19. I like it that people like you exist, makes more money for me in all endeavors of sports, poker, financial markets and horse racing.....You haven't a clue sport, who you're talking to.


keep talking about Yovani Gallardo LOL

he does not help the team at all

the fact you think hes gonna do something for the team is just hilarious

his SwStr% was a pathetic 6.5% in 2015

your baseball IQ is pretty awesome bud

good work

[ReplayRandall]

keep talking about Yovani Gallardo LOL

he does not help the team at all

the fact you think hes gonna do something for the team is just hilarious

his SwStr% was a pathetic 6.5% in 2015

your baseball IQ is pretty awesome bud

good work
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
With the acquisition of Yovani Gallardo to bolster their starting pitching staff.

What part of the word "bolster" don't you understand, Troll Fly?....Buzz off.

[slimbo]

What part of the word "bolster" don't you understand, Troll Fly?....Buzz off.

hes going to do nothing

the team on the other hand is somewhat solid, i think schoop has another good year with 20+ homers

[Stillriledup]

Boston seems high. Aren't they a 'dumpster fire'?

[slimbo]

they have betts and bogaerts

swihart will have a good year

[barahona44]

If you're looking for value, the Overs for 90 and more is tempting.The table lists only 2 teams from each sports book at 90 or more, while MLB has averaged around 7-8 teams with 90 or more wins since the 30 team expansion of 1998 with a range of 5 to 11 during that period.

[Valuist]

Boston seems high. Aren't they a 'dumpster fire'?

I think they are. The only team I like in the AL East is Toronto. Baltimore may score some runs, but they are gonna have to outslug their opponents. I don't like their starting staff. Yankees may get senior citizen discounts this year.

And Boston was the most overrated team going into last year. Looks like they could be once again.

[Stillriledup]

I think they are. The only team I like in the AL East is Toronto. Baltimore may score some runs, but they are gonna have to outslug their opponents. I don't like their starting staff. Yankees may get senior citizen discounts this year.

And Boston was the most overrated team going into last year. Looks like they could be once again.

I just have this "gut" (pun intended) feeling that the culture isn't as good as it needs to be in Boston. There's no chemistry like they had with the 'idiots' a decade ago. There're just shuttling in and out individual players w no thought to get guys who are team first players. I'd be surprised if they had a really good 85 or more win season, it just doesn't FEEL like they will.

[Valuist]

I just have this "gut" (pun intended) feeling that the culture isn't as good as it needs to be in Boston. There's no chemistry like they had with the 'idiots' a decade ago. There're just shuttling in and out individual players w no thought to get guys who are team first players. I'd be surprised if they had a really good 85 or more win season, it just doesn't FEEL like they will.

Sandoval already fatter than he usually is. Hanley Ramirez needs to be the DH, but they already have a DH. For them to get to the high 80s in wins, Price needs to win 20.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

The Nugget line of Baltimore at 77 will be a major OVER for me. With the acquisition of Yovani Gallardo to bolster their starting pitching staff, I'm looking at 85 wins minimum. That's more than double the expected rate for error of margin, which is 3.5 games.....

I also like the acquisition of Dexter Fowler. I have no idea why the Cubs think Heyward is worth so much more than Fowler. The numbers say the Cubs have it bass ackward.

[mostpost]

Made some money betting over on the Mets (83) last year. At this point in time, only UNDER on the Cubs interest me. They have a lot of games with the Cardinals and Pirates. UNDER for the Yankees also seems possible with their ancient lineup and dubious starting pitching -- but they always find a way.

Still too early, though. A lot of shaking out before opening day.
Bwaahahahahaha. Cubs will pass 94 wins before Labor Day.

[mostpost]

I also like the acquisition of Dexter Fowler. I have no idea why the Cubs think Heyward is worth so much more than Fowler. The numbers say the Cubs have it bass ackward.
A lot of people agree with the Cubs on that. On the other hand......what Baltimore acquisition of Dexter Fowler?

[lamboguy]

i think i am going to bet the cubbies over 91 1/2 at Atlantis and then bet the cubbies under 94 at the Golden Nugget. i love both those bets equally.

[cj]

I'd take the Orioles under 80.5 in a heartbeat for all the action they will give me.

[forced89]

I don't have a feel for the O/U but had a buddy of mine who lives in Las Vegas bet $500 at one of the casinos on the Texas Rangers to win the World Series at 20-1. I figure that if they make the playoffs and Darvish and Hamels are healthy, they will have a shot.

[Valuist]

I'd take the Orioles under 80.5 in a heartbeat for all the action they will give me.

I will be in Reno in a few weeks making that same wager. They will score a lot but that starting staff isn't good, although Gallardo helps a little. And I'm even more bearish on Boston. And despite a great bullpen, the Yankees have the potential for a major implosion. Many feel Tampa overperformed last year. So where do the wins go? I'd guess Toronto and the AL Central.

[upthecreek]

I'd take the Phils under They could easily lose a 100 this year

[Secondbest]

I like the over with the Mets.My reasoning is that they play 38 games with Philly and Atlanta.If they go 28-10 which is not unreasonable they then have 124 other games.Going .500 also not unreasonable gives them 62 wins plus 28 is 90

[1st time lasix]

In the AL east the TB Rays get very little attention...but remember they were .500 last year with a decimated starting pitching staff. Former number 1 aces-Matt Moore and Cobb are set to return along with Archer, Drew Smyley and Jake Ordorizzi. They have arms. They did swap left handed bullpen fire baller McGee for a potential bat. If four of the five starters stay healthy..... the other AL East teams will have a difficult time beating them in four game series. It may be an "over" for them and under for the Yanks , O's or Red Sox??? Boy.... the Red Sox sure paid an awful lot for price!!!

[HoofedInTheChest]

I do prefer unders in these bets. One over I would have to look at is Toronto over 87. The team won 93 games last year despite a MLB worst 15-28 record in one run games. I'm not buying into the alleged expected big turnaround for Boston, and I already see the Orioles as an under. Any improvement at all from the bullpen and Toronto will be very tough.
I agree, i project the Jays to come in just under 100 wins.

[Valuist]

Headed to Reno next week. Mostly for these and to cash a couple NFL futures bets, but may play a few NCAA games.

My MLB leans right now:

AL: Unders: Boston, Baltimore, LA Angels, Cleveland
OVers: White Sox, Oakland, Toronto

NL: Unders: Arizona, St Louis, Washington
Overs: at the moment, I can't think of any.

I probably won't bet St Louis under, just because their organization seems to reload regardless of who they lose. There's just so many awful teams in the NL, its hard to bet anybody under there. Amongst Atlanta, Philly, Colorado, Milwaukee and Cincinnati, I suspect one of those teams will be a surprise and win 81 or more games....but who? Good luck figuring out which one does.

[Stillriledup]

Headed to Reno next week. Mostly for these and to cash a couple NFL futures bets, but may play a few NCAA games.

My MLB leans right now:

AL: Unders: Boston, Baltimore, LA Angels, Cleveland
OVers: White Sox, Oakland, Toronto

NL: Unders: Arizona, St Louis, Washington
Overs: at the moment, I can't think of any.

I probably won't bet St Louis under, just because their organization seems to reload regardless of who they lose. There's just so many awful teams in the NL, its hard to bet anybody under there. Amongst Atlanta, Philly, Colorado, Milwaukee and Cincinnati, I suspect one of those teams will be a surprise and win 81 or more games....but who? Good luck figuring out which one does.


I've heard rumblings in the 'sharp' community that the Cubs OVER is a good bet even though it's like what, 90?

Amy thought on those notthsiders?

[Valuist]

I've heard rumblings in the 'sharp' community that the Cubs OVER is a good bet even though it's like what, 90?

Amy thought on those notthsiders?

I have plenty of thoughts. They are the team I root for, as I lived for 5 decades in Chicago before moving west. The number opened at 89 in Reno, and was bet up to 93 1/2. I'm not going to bet under, but I can't get on board with the over.

1. Any team who increases their win total from 72 to 97 is due for some regression. We see this all the time in the NFL where there's a big increase, then the following season a fall back. Happens a lot in MLB as well.

2. Arrieta was out of his mind last year. The Cubs won just about every one of his starts the last 2 months. But he had a lifetime high in innings, and by a wide margin. His XFIP was nearly a full run higher than his ERA, so he benefitted from good sequencing, or "clusterluck". I'm expecting him to be good, but no 22-6 1.77 ERA season.

3. The bullpen has overperformed the past two years, relative to the skills set. Bullpen is one of the most variable areas. Unless there's a Mariano Rivera type in there, very difficult to have a strong bullpen 3 straight years, unless you are the recent Royals, or the current Yankees, and I don't see anybody in the Cubs pen like that. IMO, this is the biggest concern.

4. The league now has a year worth of tape on Bryant and Schwarber. I think Bryant will have a great career; 400 HRs if he stays healthy. But this year could be challenging as he will have to adjust to the adjustments made to him. Both guys have big swings and strike out a lot. In Vegas, Schwarber is listed on the HR over/under at 27 1/2. If I see that prop in Reno, I will crush the under. He had 8 hits last year vs LHP, and he's a liability defensively so I doubt he tops 400 plate appearances.

5. Regression is expected from both St Louis and Pittsburgh, but cmon, one won 100 games and the other 98 games last year. As much as I dislike St Louis, the organization is too good to just fall off the map. They probably still win 87-90 games. Pittsburgh won more 1 run games than anybody so I think the linemaker is expecting regression there, but still a solid team.

6. Its one thing to sneak up on the league when expectations aren't high, but this year, they aren't sneaking up on anyone. Since I started following them in the early 70s, there's only been a handful of seasons in which they TRULY had high expectations: 2008, 2004, 1990, 1985, 1971 and 1970. And of those seasons, they only made the postseason once, in 2008, only to get swept by the Dodgers.

I made a number before the actual numbers came out, and I projected 94 wins.

I hear the Cubs are 4-1 to win the World Series, and the most bullish predictors are giving them a 14 to 15% chance so 4-1 is obviously bad value.

[Secondbest]

The Mets pitching will keep them in every game and prevent any long losing streaks.Plus the Phillies and Braves being so bad gives them a lot at division wins.I think over 89 is a good bet.
The cube being the cubs will I believe find a way not to win it all or even get to the series.

[Zaf]

The Mets pitching will keep them in every game and prevent any long losing streaks.Plus the Phillies and Braves being so bad gives them a lot at division wins.I think over 89 is a good bet.
The cube being the cubs will I believe find a way not to win it all or even get to the series.

I agree Mets are my best bet, Over :ThmbUp:

Z

[mostpost]

I have plenty of thoughts. They are the team I root for, as I lived for 5 decades in Chicago before moving west. The number opened at 89 in Reno, and was bet up to 93 1/2. I'm not going to bet under, but I can't get on board with the over.

1. Any team who increases their win total from 72 to 97 is due for some regression. We see this all the time in the NFL where there's a big increase, then the following season a fall back. Happens a lot in MLB as well.
The team that won 97 games was completely different from the team which won 72 the year before. Castillo, Barney, Valbuena, Coghlan, Alcanterra, and Schierholz were replaced by Monterro, Russell, Bryant, Schwarber, Fowler and Soler.

2. Arrieta was out of his mind last year. The Cubs won just about every one of his starts the last 2 months. But he had a lifetime high in innings, and by a wide margin. His XFIP was nearly a full run higher than his ERA, so he benefitted from good sequencing, or "clusterluck". I'm expecting him to be good, but no 22-6 1.77 ERA season.
Unless there is a typo there, I am not familiar with the term "clusterluck."
Does that refer to the fact that Arrietta has pinpoint control, a fall off the table curve and an amazing change?

3. The bullpen has overperformed the past two years, relative to the skills set. Bullpen is one of the most variable areas. Unless there's a Mariano Rivera type in there, very difficult to have a strong bullpen 3 straight years, unless you are the recent Royals, or the current Yankees, and I don't see anybody in the Cubs pen like that. IMO, this is the biggest concern.
Maybe the last two years is the skills set. If you followed the Cubs as you say you do, you know that Chris Bosio is a top pitching coach.

4. The league now has a year worth of tape on Bryant and Schwarber. I think Bryant will have a great career; 400 HRs if he stays healthy. But this year could be challenging as he will have to adjust to the adjustments made to him. Both guys have big swings and strike out a lot. In Vegas, Schwarber is listed on the HR over/under at 27 1/2. If I see that prop in Reno, I will crush the under. He had 8 hits last year vs LHP, and he's a liability defensively so I doubt he tops 400 plate appearances.
I think Bryant is already adjusting. His batting averages month to month:
April .295
May .265
June .267
July .168
August .330
Sept. .336

Schwarber may not be Starling Marte in left, but he is serviceable. Too much emphasis was put on a couple of bad plays against the Mets. We all know that nothing counts unless it happens in New York and everything that happens in New York counts triple. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
I also would not worry about him hitting left handers without a lot more proof. 56 at bats is hardly conclusive.

5. Regression is expected from both St Louis and Pittsburgh, but cmon, one won 100 games and the other 98 games last year. As much as I dislike St Louis, the organization is too good to just fall off the map. They probably still win 87-90 games. Pittsburgh won more 1 run games than anybody so I think the linemaker is expecting regression there, but still a solid team.

6. Its one thing to sneak up on the league when expectations aren't high, but this year, they aren't sneaking up on anyone. Since I started following them in the early 70s, there's only been a handful of seasons in which they TRULY had high expectations: 2008, 2004, 1990, 1985, 1971 and 1970. And of those seasons, they only made the postseason once, in 2008, only to get swept by the Dodgers.

I made a number before the actual numbers came out, and I projected 94 wins.

I hear the Cubs are 4-1 to win the World Series, and the most bullish predictors are giving them a 14 to 15% chance so 4-1 is obviously bad value.

You would be making a mistake comparing these Cubs to Cub teams of the past. Ownership is different. The Front office is different. The manager and coaching staff are different and the players are different.

[mostpost]

He (Schwarber) had 8 hits last year vs LHP
And he only had 56 at bats against lefties.
In 2014 his batting average against lefties in the minors was .315.
In 2015, in AA and AAA its was .306. That does not mean he will do that in the majors, but it would be a mistake to dismiss his potential based on such a limited sample of major league at bats.

[Valuist]

You would be making a mistake comparing these Cubs to Cub teams of the past. Ownership is different. The Front office is different. The manager and coaching staff are different and the players are different.

You didn't think I wasn't going to rebutt the above comments, did you?

First off; I'm not betting them under 94 or 93 1/2 wins. I just believe the 94 is about right. Could they win 100? Possibly, but probably not.

Let's tackle the Schwarber issue. He hit .323 before August 1 and .216 from Aug 1 onward. The league got tape on him. He's going to have to adjust big time. Not that he can't; but my point was he will NOT hit over 27 1/2 home runs (the lined HR total in Vegas). You have Hayward, Fowler, Soler, Baez, Zobrist and Szczur who can play in the outfield. Szczur most likely strictly a late inning defensive replacement. Zobrist will get the bulk of his playing time at 2B. Baez needs some ABs and the infield is crowded. You are paying Hayward $160 million; he's gonna play every day. Fowler is your leadoff guy; he's faster, gets on base, and superior defensively to Schwarber. So lets say you are facing a lefty; you already have Rizzo, Hayward and Montero, and switch hitters Fowler and Zobrist who have to move to hit from RH side. You have Soler who can hit LH better, and is better defensively. He will get the starts against lefties. No point in playing Schwarber. Like I said earlier; he's not going to top 400 plate appearances, and he won't sniff 28 home runs with less than 550 plate appearances.

Let's go to Arrieta. You forgot to mention his wipeout slider and cutter. Arguably his stuff is as nasty as ANYBODY. But that's not the point. His career high in innings was 157, and counting post season, he pitched 249 last year. He's in new territory, and how his arm reacts this year is not known. He throws a lot of sliders and cutters, and those pitches put a lot of torque on the arm. A year ago, if somebody told you Arrieta would be 16-8 with an ERA of about 2.80, you probably would've taken it. Those are the Fangraph composite predictions for this year. Those are All-Star worthy numbers, but not going to win a Cy Young.

I didn't mention Lackey and Zobrist. These were two of the 3 big offseason acquisitions; last year was Lackey's first full year in the NL so the hitters were still adjusting to him. He also is 37 years old. Is it a given he will have a sub 3 ERA like last year? Highly doubtful. Fangraphs has his ERA projected at around 3.60 this year. At least he's only signed for two years so if it doesn't work out, they won't be paying too long.

Zobrist will be 35 in May. Even if age doesn't catch up with him yet, he doesn't know the NL pitchers.

The Cubs SHOULD be very strong the next 4 years or so. But they still have to play out the season. We have no idea how they will play being the hunted, with a target on their backs. Had I been in Reno when the Cubs number opened at 89, and was 90 within a hour, I would've bet the over. But the value is gone. No over bet at 94.

[Valuist]

I was in Reno over the weekend, and one of the sportsbooks I checked out was the Silver Legacy, who now state they do NOT take MLB season win totals.

"The sharps came in and kicked our butts the last two years," I was told.

So they take in millions from all their slots and table games, but they cry over a little lost money on MLB win totals? Absolutely pathetic.

[PaceAdvantage]

So they should stay in the business of losing money?

What business does that if they have the ability to correct the situation?

Besides, they're costing themselves business by not being able to set profitable lines. Some other place that CAN will gladly accept the business.

I see no problem.

[Donttellmeshowme]

I was in Reno over the weekend, and one of the sportsbooks I checked out was the Silver Legacy, who now state they do NOT take MLB season win totals.

"The sharps came in and kicked our butts the last two years," I was told.

So they take in millions from all their slots and table games, but they cry over a little lost money on MLB win totals? Absolutely pathetic.



Yep and im sure they cap the amount you can wager on win totals. Probably a billion dollar industry and they lose a few dollars and throw there hands up in the air and cry foul.

[Valuist]

So they should stay in the business of losing money?

What business does that if they have the ability to correct the situation?

Besides, they're costing themselves business by not being able to set profitable lines. Some other place that CAN will gladly accept the business.

I see no problem.

Who's losing money? One very, very small portion of their business lost money. Its a loss leader. How many of those people that come in to bet win totals will push some thru in blackjack, or NCAA bball or the NBA?

When the mob ran sportsbooks in Vegas, they understood that you can't bleed everyone all the time. The public needs to sometimes win. Otherwise you will lose them for good.

[Valuist]

Mostpost,

I did actually end up making a Cubs wager. No, not a World Series bet at an underlaid 4-1.....nope not an over 94 or 94 1/2 wins. Not an under either.

The sportsbook I mentioned earlier that refused to offer MLB season win totals, offered some geographical rivalry win total bets. For instance, they have Cubs vs White Sox, Giants vs A's, Mets vs Yanks etc. When the first book in Reno put out win totals, they had the Cubs at 89 1/2 wins and the White Sox at 80. But within a few days the numbers were 94 and either 80 or 80 1/2. The Silver Legacy, however, used the original numbers so the Cubs were -9 1/2 wins (juiced at -150) over the White Sox and they were too lazy too adjust the number, which should've been 13 1/2 or 14. I wasn't planning a Cubs bet, but threw down 300 on it. As I took my ticket, I smugly told the clerk, "you realize you have a bad number?" "What do you mean," he asked. I told him the 9 1/2 was valid for about an hour, and the number should've been a 13 1/2 or 14. He said nothing. I stopped by the next day, and saw the number had moved to 10 1/2. Not that I believe my $300 moved the line; but somebody might've gotten off their lazy butt, checked around town; checked the Caribbean lines and saw they did indeed have a bad number.

[Rookies]

Beastie to Bats, for the Opening Pitch of the 40th. & World Series Championship Year! :ThmbUp: :jump:

Bravo boys! On your way... :)

[Secondbest]

Cubs Schwarber out for the year.Torn Acl and Lcl

[mostpost]

Cubs Schwarber out for the year.Torn Acl and Lcl
That is bad news for Schwarber. It causes me to drop my personal over/under for Cubs wins to 118.

[Rookies]

2 Bets this Year:

1) Jays to win WS @ 12-1;
2) 3 Team Divisional Parlay Jays- Mets- Texas @17-1

[ReplayRandall]

I do prefer unders in these bets. One over I would have to look at is Toronto over 87. The team won 93 games last year despite a MLB worst 15-28 record in one run games. I'm not buying into the alleged expected big turnaround for Boston, and I already see the Orioles as an under. Any improvement at all from the bullpen and Toronto will be very tough.

You're not a believer in the O's, even though you post that way in the other thread......:cool:.

[ReplayRandall]

I'd take the Orioles under 80.5 in a heartbeat for all the action they will give me.

Hope you didn't put your tennis trophies as collateral.....:cool:

[ReplayRandall]

The Nugget line of Baltimore at 77 will be a major OVER for me. With the acquisition of Yovani Gallardo to bolster their starting pitching staff, I'm looking at 85 wins minimum. That's more than double the expected rate for error of margin, which is 3.5 games.....

The only question I have is: What do I spend all my winnings on? A prospective 2 year old in training, maybe?....BTW, thank you Valuist and CJ for your contributions....:cool:

[thaskalos]

The only question I have is: What do I spend all my winnings on? A prospective 2 year old in training, maybe?....BTW, thank you Valuist and CJ for your contributions....:cool:
I don't blame you for gloating. Yovani Gallardo really did make all the difference. :)

[Valuist]

I don't blame you for gloating. Yovani Gallardo really did make all the difference. :)

Cmon, Gallardo has been consistent:

conventional : 4-4 record 5.17 ERA
advanced: 4.95 FIP 5.35 XFIP 5.36 SIERA

He doesn't miss hardly any bats (under 6k per 9 IP) and walks 3.3 per 9.

He's been consistently bad, both conventionally and sabermetrically.

Randall, the asses you need to kiss are Tillman, Britton and Machado.

[Valuist]

You're not a believer in the O's, even though you post that way in the other thread......:cool:.

If you learn anything about betting in general, you have to be willing to admit when you're wrong. I was wrong, but by May it was pretty obvious the Orioles were solid. Proud and stubborn is a quick road to the poorhouse.

I also have season under bets on the Angels and Diamondbacks which are about as sure a winner as your Orioles bet. But until the bets are officially won, I won't celebrate. Unlikely things can happen.

[ReplayRandall]

If you learn anything about betting in general, you have to be willing to admit when you're wrong. I was wrong, but by May it was pretty obvious the Orioles were solid. Proud and stubborn is a quick road to the poorhouse.

I also have season under bets on the Angels and Diamondbacks which are about as sure a winner as your Orioles bet. But until the bets are officially won, I won't celebrate. Unlikely things can happen.

Just having a little fun.....Good Luck throughout the rest of the season.:ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

Just having a little fun.....Good Luck throughout the rest of the season.:ThmbUp:

You made a good call. You were emphatic about it. Showalter is one of the top managers in MLB.

In retrospect, it doesn't seem unlikely. They've got a bunch of guys with big time power. And based on the numbers, the best closer in all of MLB.

[cj]

Hope you didn't put your tennis trophies as collateral.....:cool:

I was reverse mushing my team silly. I always do that. :)

[ReplayRandall]

I was reverse mushing my team silly. I always do that. :)

Did SRU show you the ropes on how to reverse mush?...:cool:

[cj]

Did SRU show you the ropes on how to reverse mush?...:cool:

No...that has been a staple of mine for decades. I think I actually taught him!

[mostpost]

I have plenty of thoughts. They are the team I root for, as I lived for 5 decades in Chicago before moving west. The number opened at 89 in Reno, and was bet up to 93 1/2. I'm not going to bet under, but I can't get on board with the over.
I was rereading this thread and-with the benefit of hindsight-I thought I would see how your predictions turned out.

1. Any team who increases their win total from 72 to 97 is due for some regression. We see this all the time in the NFL where there's a big increase, then the following season a fall back. Happens a lot in MLB as well.
I'm sure that does happen, but the Cubs just won their 97th game with 11 to play. 103 is not beyond the realm of possibility.

2. Arrieta was out of his mind last year. The Cubs won just about every one of his starts the last 2 months. But he had a lifetime high in innings, and by a wide margin. His XFIP was nearly a full run higher than his ERA, so he benefitted from good sequencing, or "clusterluck". I'm expecting him to be good, but no 22-6 1.77 ERA season.
You were correct, He was not as good. Still he has 17 wins right now, so he wasn't bad either.

3. The bullpen has overperformed the past two years, relative to the skills set. Bullpen is one of the most variable areas. Unless there's a Mariano Rivera type in there, very difficult to have a strong bullpen 3 straight years, unless you are the recent Royals, or the current Yankees, and I don't see anybody in the Cubs pen like that. IMO, this is the biggest concern.
I don't know how to judge a bullpen, so I will just say they seem to be doing OK.

4. The league now has a year worth of tape on Bryant and Schwarber. I think Bryant will have a great career; 400 HRs if he stays healthy. But this year could be challenging as he will have to adjust to the adjustments made to him. Both guys have big swings and strike out a lot. In Vegas, Schwarber is listed on the HR over/under at 27 1/2. If I see that prop in Reno, I will crush the under. He had 8 hits last year vs LHP, and he's a liability defensively so I doubt he tops 400 plate appearances.
Schwarber has not made an out since the first week in April. Back to being serious, I think you will agree that Bryant has done quite well at making those adjustments. Following Rookie of the Year with MVP probably means he has improved.

5. Regression is expected from both St Louis and Pittsburgh, but cmon, one won 100 games and the other 98 games last year. As much as I dislike St Louis, the organization is too good to just fall off the map. They probably still win 87-90 games. Pittsburgh won more 1 run games than anybody so I think the linemaker is expecting regression there, but still a solid team.
With 11 games left on the schedule, St. Louis has twenty less wins than last year, while Pittsburgh has 23 less wins. It looks like they did indeed regress.

6. Its one thing to sneak up on the league when expectations aren't high, but this year, they aren't sneaking up on anyone. Since I started following them in the early 70s, there's only been a handful of seasons in which they TRULY had high expectations: 2008, 2004, 1990, 1985, 1971 and 1970. And of those seasons, they only made the postseason once, in 2008, only to get swept by the Dodgers.
Being as how they lead their division by 16 games and have the best record in baseball by 6 1/2 games, I agree that they didn't sneak up on anyone. They just roared on by.

I made a number before the actual numbers came out, and I projected 94 wins.

I hear the Cubs are 4-1 to win the World Series, and the most bullish predictors are giving them a 14 to 15% chance so 4-1 is obviously bad value.
My number was 117. I missed that pretty badly, but maybe next year. After all, isn't that the Cubs fan's motto.

[Valuist]

My number was 117. I missed that pretty badly, but maybe next year. After all, isn't that the Cubs fan's motto.

All that matters is the title in another 5 weeks or so. I like their chances, but in a short series, who knows? I'd like to face the Mets, because it would be nice revenge, and they aren't the same team they were last year. The Giants have played poorly since the AS break, although they have a post season pedigree. Supposedly Harper has been playing hurt, so that would limit the Nats. Dodgers are obviously a concern. Cardinals main edge is their familiarity but the Cubs beat them last year in the playoffs and this Cardinal team is a step or two down from the 2015 edition.

World Series? I'd like to see them play Texas. Texas is an exciting team to watch.

[barahona44]

All that matters is the title in another 5 weeks or so. I like their chances, but in a short series, who knows? I'd like to face the Mets, because it would be nice revenge, and they aren't the same team they were last year. The Giants have played poorly since the AS break, although they have a post season pedigree. Supposedly Harper has been playing hurt, so that would limit the Nats. Dodgers are obviously a concern. Cardinals main edge is their familiarity but the Cubs beat them last year in the playoffs and this Cardinal team is a step or two down from the 2015 edition.

World Series? I'd like to see them play Texas. Texas is an exciting team to watch.
A Red Sox -Cubs World Series would get a lot more attention.The Cursed vs. The Not Cursed Anymore.

Also, only 4 teams since 1990(Yanks in 1998 and 2009, Red Sox in 2007 and 2013) with the most regular season wins have won the World Series.It's always the team that gets hot at the right time.

[mostpost]

A Red Sox -Cubs World Series would get a lot more attention.The Cursed vs. The Not Cursed Anymore.

Also, only 4 teams since 1990(Yanks in 1998 and 2009, Red Sox in 2007 and 2013) with the most regular season wins have won the World Series.It's always the team that gets hot at the right time.
The first priority for me is to get the Cubs to the World Series. Once that happens, the Red Sox would be the perfect opponent.

A few years ago my sister retired and moved to North Andover to be near her daughter, son-in-law and three grandsons. Both the ladies are big Chicago sports fans and are still very loyal to the Cubs and Blackhawks. Unfortunately I hear them talking less and less about the Bears and more about the Patriots. :eek: