PDA

View Full Version : Thoughts on Sartin Programs?


Gunshy
06-24-2004, 02:58 AM
Firstly, let me thank everyone who replied to my post "Searching for Best Software". Half of you suggested that I search through the previous posts which discussed the various software. I did, and I was surprised by the number of potentially excellent programs that are available. Also, I was surprised at the number of different approaches and methodologies that software developers and user-handicappers have taken. I am focusing on the software that is highly regarded by the experienced users here. I will post the preliminary results of my search in a few days.

The other half recommended that I read and study as much as I can about handicapping before I get that software so that it will match my own style. That is the subject of my question to the group - Has anyone heard of a program called Speculator?

I have been studying the Sartin Methodology and it’s evolution and derivatives, along with the update done by Brohamer in Modern Pace Handicapping. I have come across a relatively unknown DOS program called Speculator which was written by the programmer who wrote the software used by Dr. Sartin. Speculator is proclaimed to be an updated version of the last generation of Sartin’s software, the Validator series. Speculator is not marketed except by word of mouth and is highly regarded on a Yahoo group started by followers of Dr. Sartin, who retired due to health problems several years ago, and users of his programs.

If anyone has any experience with Speculator or any opinions on programs that use or have incorporated Dr. Sartin's handicapping philosphies, I would appreciate your input. Thank you.

shanta
06-24-2004, 07:25 AM
Gunshy,
These are MY opinions ok?
1) Do NOT get validator 3( if you could even find it). It is basically validator 2 with a bell or whistle added That I think will not help you get even 1 extra winner.

2) validator 2 is a winner in the hands of someone who can enter reasonably representative pacelines for horses and who can also stay OUT of races where there are a lot of mix and match horses( sprinters, routers) in the same race.

3) Regarding Speculator I know 2 people who have it and both are very happy with the program. It uses the same trackmaster download as the above mentioned programs. One of the major diiferences is that the Speed ratings used are not Trackmasters but are rather based on "in house par times" created by the programmer Guy Wadsworth.

4) HSH is a program that I have been using for about 6 weeks now. It incorporates a lot of Sartin readouts in a couple of its "modules". It also allows the user access to database queries.
Neural nets "training" is another feature that you can utilize. There are like 6 different programs in HSH but you did ask specifically about Sartin and this does have a lot of Sartin's stuff in it ok? Being a "newbie" user I probably have not done the program justice or described it accurately Gunshy. If you are interested you can contact Dave Schwartz at www.horsestreet.com . I DO know that the customer service is second to none.

Good hunting!
Richie Pizzicara

Gunshy
06-24-2004, 01:00 PM
Thanks for the input, Richie.

You have confirmed what I felt about the Sartin programs, Validator (which is no longer available unless you find a user who wants to sell) and Speculator -- you have to be an "expert" in the Sartin Methodology and pace handicapping to use them properly, and if you interpret them correctly you get good results.

My concern is that there are so many handicapping methods that I don't want to be unduely limited to use only one method or use a program that only supports one handicapping method.

I appreciate your comments on HSH. I am giving it serious consideration, along with TB5 and Power Online.

Dave Schwartz
06-24-2004, 01:33 PM
Check out this eBay item:


http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=5104478321

witchdoctor
06-24-2004, 04:55 PM
If you had to choose between TB5 and HSH, go with HSH. Dave wrote both but supports only HSH. He sold TB5 to a group known as PRI many years ago. HSH has many ways to attack the races and last time I looked TH5 uses only AI. I can't comment about Pwer Online.

sq764
06-24-2004, 04:58 PM
Gunshy, you do not have to be an expert in the Sartin methodology by any means!!!

Ask Richie, he showed me how to use Validator in a week and now I wouldn't use any other program out there. I have been given almost every piece of software to test out and this is the most effective one I have personally seen. (I will say I have never tried HSH or HTR, so I cannot comment on them, except for the expensive data)

You need to figure out how much time and money you have to spend first.. If you are into a database program, it's going take a lot of time and effort (and money) to build one that is effective.. Also, if you are going to purchase software that uses HDW files, it's going to be pricey.

Good luck whichever avenue you go.

Dave Schwartz
06-24-2004, 05:47 PM
Actually, I wrote TB1, TB2, TB3 and TB4. I did not write TB5.

But you should still go with HSH. <G>


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

trying2win
06-24-2004, 06:29 PM
Dave,

It appears that on the ebay ad for HSH, that you don't want any potential Canadian customers. Part of the ad reads:

SHIPS TO UNITED STATES ONLY.

In the past whenever I've been interested in bidding on an ebay item and I see that line about SHIPS TO UNITED STATES ONLY, I've contacted the seller. A lot of the sellers have told me that was an oversight and should have included CANADA as well. In some cases, the seller was willing to make an exception for a potential Canadian buyer who has a good "buyer" record at ebay.
Then again, some U.S. sellers may have had bad experiences with the postal system in the past, when shipping to Canada. If that's the case, I can understand why they would put that designation of SHIPS TO UNITED STATES ONLY.

In case there was any oversight, could you clarify the shipping part of the ebay ad, for any Canadian PA members who might be interested in HSH?

Thanks,

T2W

Crosley
06-24-2004, 06:54 PM
You need to figure out how much time and money you have to spend first.. If you are into a database program, it's going take a lot of time and effort (and money) to build one that is effective.. Also, if you are going to purchase software that uses HDW files, it's going to be pricey.

Any recommendations on a Software package for a player that mostly plays on weekends, whose current level of play would only justify buying data files as needed, maybe several a week?

If HSH offered single file purchases would it be a worthwhile program or is the database function critical to it's operation?

Bill

Dave Schwartz
06-24-2004, 07:36 PM
T2W,

I will work on that immediately!

Thanks.

Dave

sq764
06-24-2004, 09:02 PM
Crosley, if you are a weekend player, it might not be a good idea to tie up $130 a month in data costs, but that is up to you. I know nothing about HSH, only that the data is a little costly for a part time player.

You might want to start with a simple program with small data costs.. (Trackmaster, Bris, TSN files, etc...)

Crosley
06-24-2004, 09:08 PM
sq...

Yes, but which one, any recommendations? Val is out I'd really like a Windows based program.

I fool around a bit with Quickhorse and struggle somewhat with Speculator, just haven't found the right one that suits me yet.

Bill

sq764
06-24-2004, 09:15 PM
Um, Speculator is a dos program too..

Crosley
06-24-2004, 09:22 PM
Right, that's part of the reason I'm struggling with it, printing problems, speed, etc.... very cumbersom and I'm not getting the results others seem to be; I guess my paceline selectins aren't up to par.

Tom
06-24-2004, 09:22 PM
Crosley,
Two that come to mind are MPH by Brohammer-from TrackMaster.
Great pace velictiy program.
The other is Multicaps (or Procaps, the TSN version)
Multi is a nice program with lots of differnet things in it, whatever suits your fancy. It is free, and uses BRIS files, which can be purchased as singles. I do not like the modeler part of it because it breaks races down way to fiite to ever get a meaningful model, but if you only play on weekends, it is probably good to jsut model weekend races by hand.

sq764
06-24-2004, 09:29 PM
To give you my opinion of a few i have seen:

Speculator - Excellent on Maiden races

Validator - For me, the best software out there

Quickhorse - Total garbage

Talbot Pace Calculator - Nothing special

Focus 2000 - Actually had potential, but also some big limitations

Master Magician - Only dabbled a little, nice program

Snap Cap Pro - The 2nd worst piece of crap ever

Zambuto's Software - The top piece of crap ever

Propace - Not many people ever used this, I think it's an excellent program on trainer intent

AllinOne - Have it but have never actually used it.

Equisim - Appears to be a nice program and have heard great things about it, but haven't really used it.

Hope this helps a bit..

Crosley
06-24-2004, 09:40 PM
It helps...

I just put aside Modern Pace Handicapping cause Pace Make the Race just arrived. I read all the posts on both Yahoo Sartin groups and find their methodology very interesting.

That said, time might be right to look at Tom's suggestion for MPH.

Care to elaborate on Quickhorse... I know backtesting may not be the best solution but I think it may have some potential if you're willing to spend the time building your own methods and include what works for you.

sq764
06-24-2004, 10:00 PM
I honestly can't elaborate on Quickhorse..

I like to try as many programs as I can, mainly for enjoyment.. That was not an enjoyable one. Then when I went back to the person who authored the program, he was a first class ass.

That was enough for me...

Tom
06-24-2004, 10:23 PM
Ooopps. I fogot Equisim. EXCELLANT program. Great support.
Fun program, too.

acorn54
06-24-2004, 10:58 PM
i have quickhorse
if used properly i think it's a decent software
i was able to get weights for factors at aqueduct inner track and belmont-saratoga,that on forward testing showed a profit,
but it is not an interesting program to use , once you have discovered the best weights-factors combinations. then it becomes nothing more than a tip sheet. no handicapping on your part. but if all you want is a tip sheet then this program may be worth looking into.
i was attracted initially because the price was reasonable ($49), and the concept of using weights for factors seemed statistically valid.
equsim is a fine program with fine support from nathan and the users of the program, this is the program i am using and see no reason to go elsewhere for software.
you can download the equisim program with a database included for 15 days.
as a matter of fact ,one of the reasons i went and bought equisim was because during my demo use i made the money from the horses using the program to pay for it. of course ymmv.
hope this helps

trying2win
06-24-2004, 11:31 PM
Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
T2W,

I will work on that immediately!

Thanks.

Dave


Dave,

Good show! Hope that helps you get more bids at the ebay site.


Thanks,

T2W

Binder
06-25-2004, 04:54 AM
Hi Crosley

You wrote .

"Right, that's part of the reason I'm struggling with it, printing problems, speed, etc.... very cumbersom and I'm not getting the results others seem to be; I guess my paceline selectins aren't up to par."

I would give Speculator another try
Its been updated again and really although its a Dos program
the New Summary screen is all you really need to print out

If you can't print the summary readout
Go onto V/DC Messenger I have a demo of how to capture
then copy and past onto notepad. Its easier then it sounds

Keep workind and reading the post. Post a race, We
love to check out readouts and see anything we might be missing

Even a loss can teach us

I know "ce" is excellent at picking lines and "following Directions"


Binder
V/DC Messenger Service

trying2win
07-03-2004, 02:26 AM
I thought I read somewhere that followers of the Sartin Methodology bet 2 horses per race. Is that true? If so, what happens when you encounter a race like this:

--You like two horses with 2 minutes to post. One is the favorite, but he's at 3/5 and your other choice is going off at 8/1. How do you bet a race like that, if you bet two horses per race?


T2W

"Where would Proctor be without a Gamble? --T2W

Binder
07-03-2004, 04:13 AM
Hi trying2win

As a follower of the Sartin Methodology I would not bet
the 3/5 to win
This horse would be what Doc would call a "hide"
Doc thaught me and wrote about this all the time in his journal called the Follow Up. You "hide" for Win Only any horse that
will pay under 5/2
I would run the race in his program Validator 3
I would get the race down to the top 4 V/DC on the # 7
screen This is the Validator. Being 3/5
this horse better be on this screen :)
I'm sure it would be rated #1

My screen would look something like this .... I added the M/l
to show the odds of the horses Lets pretend that they are the odds at 1 minute to post time

Horse # 1 V/DC 1 M/L 8/5
Horse # 2 V/DC 2 M/L 8/1
Horse # 3 V/DC 3 M/L 5/2
Horse # 4 V/DC 4 M/L 9/2

I would press the 2 buttom and hide horse #1
this would take this horse out of the race and I would get
a new set of read outs

Horse#2 V/DC 1 M/L 8/1
Horse #4 V/DC 3 M/L 9/2
Horse# 3 V/DC 2 M/L 5/2

So now If, Lets say I use the morning line odds as the final odds

My win bets would be # 1 @8/1 and since the #4 moved up into a tie with the #3 I would use him as my second bet

Thats a basic way I would bet this race

If you would like to see some example races. I have
some video demos on my website
I made these videos using Val 2 ,3 and Speculator

http://www.bindfold.com/pages/2/index.htm

trying2win
07-03-2004, 04:44 AM
Binder,

I checked one video at your website. I watched part of the 7 furlong video. Unfortunately, the print is too small to read. No problem with the audio though.

Re that example of the 3/5 and the 8/1 horse I listed in my previous post. Are you trying to say that you ignore the 3/5 horse (presumably just because he's a hot favorite) and you will bet your next two highest-odds selections? So, is true that the Sartin Methodology teaches you to always bet two horses in a race no matter what?

I can recall reading an interesting article that Steve Fierro wrote. This article was about the fallacy of betting against strong favorites. I think what happened, was in races with strong favorites amd he bet against it, he found out he was losing money over a period of time. That was an enlightening article. If I find a race with a ML favorite (usually 5/2 or less) and this horse has a big edge in speed ratings etc., then I will usually skip the race.

T2W

"There are two signs of old age. One is forgetfulness, and I can't remember what the other one was." --anonymous

Binder
07-03-2004, 08:24 AM
I keep working on them to make them as clear as
I can.I have only a limited amount of training.
and the screens from Doc's DOS programs are hard to record

So some of these videos were really poor. The 7 furlong race one is small Maybe you can enlarge the video size on your player
I hope to make more and they do get a little better each time
( I hope) I make one

As for as the sample race I do bet two horses every race I wager
When I make picks on my group
V/Dc Messenger service

I set up the picks this way Pick 1 Pick 2 and a third Alt. pick
When I do a race with Validator. I look at the the final V/DC screen
and right down these horses like this, based on there VDC ranking or what Doc calls Tiers
1 / 2 / 3 / 4
Now again, I know the #1 horse is the big favorite from the M/L and his #1 Tier on V/DC
So He is a hide I agree what you said .Should I pass this race?
is the #1 too strong?
I then go to the # 6 screen on Validator 2 . This is the Bottom Line Betting Line Screen
on this screen There is a odds line and a line score rating
The top horses are rated in the low to mid 20's and they drop down slightly something like this

Horse #1 6/5 Linescore 23.5 M/L 9/5
Horse #2 2/1 Linescore 20.9 M/L 8/1
Horse #3 5/2 Linescore 18.4 M/L 5/2
Horse #4 3/1 Linescore 18.0 M/L 9/2

The #1 horse is not "gapped" more then 5 points greater then
the next highest horse so I would hide the #1 and take a chance

I would hide the #1 and like in my other post bet horse # 2
and 4
I don't bet the two highest odds horses I mostly bet
what I call Pick 1 and Pick 2 or an alt. pick
In this race Pick 1 would be horse #2
He is tier 2 before hides and #1 after and @8/1 great value
Pick 2 would be the # 4 he is in the top 3 V/DC
and moved up in to a tie with the #2 after I hide the #1
my third choice would be #3 I would use this horse if the 2 or
4 was scratched or also went under 2/1. Then there would be two hides and I would pass the race.

trying2win
07-03-2004, 12:18 PM
Binder,

I'm not familiar with some of the terminology you use in a Validator program, but I'm assuming you must use several filters in deciding on whether you pass a race or not. Also, it appears there is some judgement involved in deciding what horses to bet using the Validator program.

Thanks,

T2W

"I bet on a horse at ten-to-one. It didn't come in until half-past five." -- Henny Youngman

Binder
07-03-2004, 06:56 PM
T2W

After you do a couple thousand races with Validator
It really just comes down to trusting the pacelines you entered. Being careful and alert when you eliminate none contenders
and then just follow directions. The Program can work well
I really Like Validator 2 and now 3
There are many decision you have to make . Because the program does not seperate the contenders very much
Doc often talked about a feeling you will get when you are in the zone. In a calm relaxed state of mind. You will not suffer from something call abulia This is some reaction in the brain that blocks your ability to make a decision Doc also told us clients to wagercap
This meant, For your first bet you bet any horse who is Tiered V/DC 1,2,or 3 that will pay over 5/2. This is after you hide any horse whos odds are under 5/2
For your next bet . You bet the horse with the highest odds of these top 3 VDC tiers
This works but you have to live with it when a horse in the middle wins . Doc also suggested for some people who really can't make a final decision to bet 60/40 %60 on the low odds horse and 40% on the 2nd or 3rd Tiered horse, Even sometimes 70% and 30%


Binder
V/DC Messenger service

http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/VDCMessengerService/join

LARRY GEORGE
07-03-2004, 08:47 PM
I BELIEVE A PERSON NAMED GUY WADSWORTH WROTE SOME OF THE LAST PROGRAMS FOR DOC, I HEARD HE IS STILL WORKING ON SOME PROGRAMS HE LIVES IN BANNING CALIF. THE SAME TOWN AS DOC SARTIN.

sq764
07-04-2004, 01:57 AM
They are all garbage...

The last decent program written was Validator 3..

Binder
07-04-2004, 05:33 AM
Hi Larry
Yes you are correct Guy Wadsworth wrote the last few
programs for Doc . He had his own ideas of what should
be added to the programs. So when Doc retired
Guy put out His own program
Val 2 is a fantastic program Val 3 was suppose to be an upgrade but its really the same as Val 2
The problem is you can't buy either Validator program
any longer . Speculator is the only program you can still buy

Binder
V/DC Messenger

Richard
07-05-2004, 01:35 PM
Binder,
Where might Speculator be purchased?
Richard

Gunshy
07-05-2004, 02:09 PM
Richard, You can contact Guy Wadsworth by email at:

ml.west@verizon.net

Gunshy
07-05-2004, 02:10 PM
Oops, forgot to mention Guy sells the program directly.

Binder
07-05-2004, 03:02 PM
Richard I sent you Guys phone number in a PM

Good Skill