Risen Star

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Here we go.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby really starts to heat up as we get our first 50 point Win race and a virtual guaranteed position in the starting gate at Churchill come May 7th. Even the 20 second place points will likely lock in Mo Tom and Airoforce while giving everyone else a solid step forward on their goal towards the Run for the Roses.

A solid field of 12 will look to enter the gate in the deepest Derby prep to date. (I will notate those who have already earned Derby points thus far).

:1: In Equality (2 Derby points): He did run 3rd in the G3 Jerome at Aqueduct last out, but he was never really a factor. I love me some Junior Alvarado, but this shipper will need to improve dramatically to hit the board in here. Tough to see.

:2: Mo Tom (12 Derby points): That was an impressive, and easy, win in the G3 LeComte. The connections couldn't have asked for much more in his 3YO bow. One may look at his racing style and say that he needs pace to come home in his closing style. I disagree. The fractions in the LeComte were far from brisk, but he still passed all his rivals with relative ease down the lane when the real running began. Serious serious contender.

:3: Dolphus: Rachel Alexander's half-brother has gotten a lot of hype and hasn't really put it all together based upon that hype. He was beat pretty handily 2 back by :8: Tom's Ready who is a 2nd tier contender in here. The Trainer/Jockey of Sharp and Hernandez are sneaky good and this one could get some action at the totes.

:4: Bistraya: This West Coast shipper comes in off his Maiden score in fairly impressive fashion. The game plan here has to be to get him on the lead and see if he can wire the field. There isn't much other 'legit' speed in this race, so that possibility is out there. Biggest problem is that Hoffenheim was gaining on him late in his Maiden score, and he came back on Monday in a Oaklawn Maiden race and came up short in the stretch. The extra 1/16th likely won't be kind.

:5: Forevamo: He has a nice stalking style, but not much speed of foot when it matters and has fallen short of 2nd and 3rd tier peers a number of times already. Bottom end of exotics seems to be his tops in this one.

:6: Gun Runner (1 Derby point): He ran pretty well in the G2 Kentucky Gold Cup only to come up short against :10: Airoforce, Mor Spirit, and :2: Mo Tom. Nothing to be ashamed about. Was he sent too early? That may be the reason for moving to Geroux in here who is arguably the best "big race" jockey at this venue. He has had nearly 3 months to recover from that race and is training very well. A serious contender that doesn't have to improve all that much to catch his 2 biggest rivals in here.

:7: Its All Relevant: Took 6 times to break his Maiden, and he really hasn't ran against, or beaten, all that much. As a Hard Spun fan I'd like for him to be involved, but he looks to be nothing more than a pace player.

:8: Tom's Ready (4 Derby points): That was a pretty good race in the G3 LeComte, but he was put away rather easily by the :2: Mo Tom. Johnny V gets the call which sparks some interest, and much like the :6:, there isn't a huge amount of improvement needed. Problem is, can that happen in just 3 short weeks? He didn't have the greatest of trips in the LeComte, so that should be taken into consideration as well. A definite contender, but the '1' in the Win column after 7 races is tough to overlook.

:9: Laoban: SCRATCH

:10: Airoforce (10 Derby points): If not for a neck, this one would be 4 for 4 with a Breeder's Cup win under his belt and 2 other Graded Stakes victories. The class of the field is the ML favorite, and may well be come post time. He has been brilliant since day 1, and hasn't disappointed yet. The biggest question is if he can take to a dry fast dirt track? Training lights out, and looks extremely tough in here.

:11: Zapperini: Yea, yea. A quick look at the numbers and the form say this one is well behind a number of rivals in here. However, a 2nd and 3rd deeper look tell me a different story. This one is begging for more distance, and while he won't get much more here today, it is still more. There is a reasonable amount of speed in here and a number of horses with distance questions in which he can clunk up in some exotics as he'll keep running when others are tiring and contenders are closed up to save themselves for a better day.

:12: Uncle Walter (2 Derby points): Hasn't really ran a bad race, but as the distances and competition increase, the harder it becomes. Castellano climbs on board, but this post position is extremely difficult to overlook as the 1 1/16th will be tough enough already.

:13: Candy My Boy: One may look at the form and immediately assume he is a need the lead type horse. A look at the numbers, and further investigation, tell a much different story. Those were easy leads in his last two, and he was just simply better. Brueggemann and Bridgmohan are on fire together, and this guy is getting better each time out and working well. The post is an obvious problem, but it may be a good thing to allow for this one to settle in behind the speed and make one run like a number of others in here. A potential bomber at 15/1 that will be interesting to watch on the tote board as I don't believe we'll get those odds.

W: :6::13:
EX: :6::13:/:2::6::13:
TRI: :2::6::13:/:2::6::13:/:2::3::6::10::11::13:

[f2tornado]

Nice write up above. I'm going with Airoforce :10: . He has already beat some of the best young turf horses out there and has already beat highly regarded Mor Spit along with second ML choice Mo Tom. He has Buckpasser-x, the best Brisnet pace figures, and coming off a nice work. He is certainly no lock but I will bet with confidence.

It gets a little more interesting trying to nail down my trifecta. Mo Tom :2: certainly looked good overcoming some problems at the start in previous trip over the track and the LeComte has demonstrated ample class this year. A must include in my exotics. I'm not yet sold on Gun Runner :6: but getting hot Geroux who hasn't missed the board often in FG stakes this year. I will consider Its All Relevant :7: to boost the trifecta payoff as his Brisnet pace figures fit the race well. Jersey Joe certainly a capable rider. Tom's Ready :8: might not be ready for this distance but respectable last trip in a field that has flattered since. Johnny V is a plus. Uncle Walter :12: in the same boat as Tom. Picks up JC who is one of the best. Maker does a good job spotting his horses.

$20W :10:
$3 EX :10: / :2:
$2 EX :10: / :7:
$2 BOX :2: / :10:
I will bet this $1 tri and then add smaller versions.
:10: / :2: :6: :7: / :2: :6: :7: :8: :12:

[redshift1]

Four Uncle Mo offspring in this race.

Stud fee 2014 27K

Stud fee 2016 75K

Stud fee 2017 ???

Airoforce is my pick but as mentioned above it's a big field and Airoforce must contend with the quartet of Uncle Mo minions.

.

[minethatbird08]

I like "It's all Relevant " not sure I would take him to win but I will put him in my super. I think his last race, first this year, was very good. Two back was second to Shagaf (Chad Brown). I realize that he has just been going against maidens but @ 15-1 he is worth playing.

[sammy the sage]

Dolphus...scratched....

Is AF fully cranked for this race...probably not...might not matter...BBBBuuuuuttttttttt....I can't wager w/confidence w/out knowing trainer's FULL intent....and on THE best horse....will not try to beat or wager on...a pass....

[azeri98]

:2: and :10: with :6: :8: :4:

[PowerUpPaynter]

Airoforce can put himself in the top tier of horses (Nyquist, Mohaymen, Mor Spirit) with a big performance today. Although i think Mor Spirit is a cut below

[gib]

Thanks for sharing your in depth analysis.

In my opinion this race looks like the most competitive of the preps so far. It will be interesting to see how this bunch matches up with the rest of the country on Derby day. I see that INTERNATIONAL STAR swept the FG series last year but didn't make it to Kentucky - how did the rest of the runners taking that route make out?

Anyhow, I am a sucker for horses that have run as 3yos versus those showing up for their 3yo debut. That, the Lecomte win and a race shape that might favor his running style leave me on MO TOM.

[davew]

Although there are many solid horses in here, I am thinking a longshot wire by either :7: Its All Relevant or :4: Bistraya, if either can break free.

[bgbootha]

Our figures point in a longshot direction here as well.

The :7: ITS ALL RELEVANT and the :1: IN EQUALITY are both overlays anywhere close to their morning lines.

:1: :7: w/ :1: :2: :5: :7: :10: = Exacta
:1: :7: w/ :1: :2: :5: :7: :10: w/ :1: :2: :5: :6: :7: :10: = Trifecta

The all stakes pick 4 is interesting that ends with the Risen Star as well, some even money ML favorites could create an easy route into the Risen Star where I am hoping to see some prices. Plus a random pick4 with those heavy favorites losing could produce a nice pickup.

http://s12.postimg.org/z7yy514wd/Capture.jpg

[RIsurfcaster]

I'm taking a serious look at Candy My Boy. I like that he's 2-0 at this track, and 1-0 at this distance. I'm hoping the light came on with his maiden victory and he can improve off of his last effort. I'm not confident he will win, but I may take a small chance with him if I can get better than his ML odds. I'll also be playing around with Gun Runner and Uncle Walter. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Airoforce wins. I just can't take him at small odds given he's never raced on a fast track.

[Robert Fischer]

:12: Uncle Walter is an overlay and also happens to be my pick to win here.
I like him keyed 1st and 2nd in vertical exotics along with the win money.

:10: Aeroforce has no 'value' here but he's proven that he is pretty good at getting up in grinding type races which may fall apart and 'flow' to the horse with the best 'nose for the wire'. Tough to construct a serious ticket without the 10. I wouldn't be shocked if he wins or if he runs 5th.

:6:Gun Runner is an overlay among the contenders. Seems to really need a dream trip to show his best (and not finish on empty legs) but if he works that trip today, look out.



:8: Tom's Ready is the type who can plod along and beat the :2:. He has some value underneath.

:2:Mo Tom looks like an 'underlay' to me. I think you have to use him 3rd and 4th on tickets, but He's one who will beat me if he places in the top 2.


12/1068
106/12
12/1068/10682
106/12/10682
etc

[porkchop]

TRI :6::10: / :2::4::6::7::10: / :2::4::6::7::10::12:

[Robert Fischer]

Here we go.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby really starts to heat up as we get our first 50 point Win race and a virtual guaranteed position in the starting gate at Churchill come May 7th. Even the 20 second place points will likely lock in Mo Tom and Airoforce while giving everyone else a solid step forward on their goal towards the Run for the Roses.

A solid field of 12 will look to enter the gate in the deepest Derby prep to date. (I will notate those who have already earned Derby points thus far).

:1: In Equality (2 Derby points): He did run 3rd in the G3 Jerome at Aqueduct last out, but he was never really a factor. I love me some Junior Alvarado, but this shipper will need to improve dramatically to hit the board in here. Tough to see.

:2: Mo Tom (12 Derby points): That was an impressive, and easy, win in the G3 LeComte. The connections couldn't have asked for much more in his 3YO bow. One may look at his racing style and say that he needs pace to come home in his closing style. I disagree. The fractions in the LeComte were far from brisk, but he still passed all his rivals with relative ease down the lane when the real running began. Serious serious contender.

:3: Dolphus: Rachel Alexander's half-brother has gotten a lot of hype and hasn't really put it all together based upon that hype. He was beat pretty handily 2 back by :8: Tom's Ready who is a 2nd tier contender in here. The Trainer/Jockey of Sharp and Hernandez are sneaky good and this one could get some action at the totes.

:4: Bistraya: This West Coast shipper comes in off his Maiden score in fairly impressive fashion. The game plan here has to be to get him on the lead and see if he can wire the field. There isn't much other 'legit' speed in this race, so that possibility is out there. Biggest problem is that Hoffenheim was gaining on him late in his Maiden score, and he came back on Monday in a Oaklawn Maiden race and came up short in the stretch. The extra 1/16th likely won't be kind.

:5: Forevamo: He has a nice stalking style, but not much speed of foot when it matters and has fallen short of 2nd and 3rd tier peers a number of times already. Bottom end of exotics seems to be his tops in this one.

:6: Gun Runner (1 Derby point): He ran pretty well in the G2 Kentucky Gold Cup only to come up short against :10: Airoforce, Mor Spirit, and :2: Mo Tom. Nothing to be ashamed about. Was he sent too early? That may be the reason for moving to Geroux in here who is arguably the best "big race" jockey at this venue. He has had nearly 3 months to recover from that race and is training very well. A serious contender that doesn't have to improve all that much to catch his 2 biggest rivals in here.

:7: Its All Relevant: Took 6 times to break his Maiden, and he really hasn't ran against, or beaten, all that much. As a Hard Spun fan I'd like for him to be involved, but he looks to be nothing more than a pace player.

:8: Tom's Ready (4 Derby points): That was a pretty good race in the G3 LeComte, but he was put away rather easily by the :2: Mo Tom. Johnny V gets the call which sparks some interest, and much like the :6:, there isn't a huge amount of improvement needed. Problem is, can that happen in just 3 short weeks? He didn't have the greatest of trips in the LeComte, so that should be taken into consideration as well. A definite contender, but the '1' in the Win column after 7 races is tough to overlook.

:9: Laoban: SCRATCH

:10: Airoforce (10 Derby points): If not for a neck, this one would be 4 for 4 with a Breeder's Cup win under his belt and 2 other Graded Stakes victories. The class of the field is the ML favorite, and may well be come post time. He has been brilliant since day 1, and hasn't disappointed yet. The biggest question is if he can take to a dry fast dirt track? Training lights out, and looks extremely tough in here.

:11: Zapperini: Yea, yea. A quick look at the numbers and the form say this one is well behind a number of rivals in here. However, a 2nd and 3rd deeper look tell me a different story. This one is begging for more distance, and while he won't get much more here today, it is still more. There is a reasonable amount of speed in here and a number of horses with distance questions in which he can clunk up in some exotics as he'll keep running when others are tiring and contenders are closed up to save themselves for a better day.

:12: Uncle Walter (2 Derby points): Hasn't really ran a bad race, but as the distances and competition increase, the harder it becomes. Castellano climbs on board, but this post position is extremely difficult to overlook as the 1 1/16th will be tough enough already.

:13: Candy My Boy: One may look at the form and immediately assume he is a need the lead type horse. A look at the numbers, and further investigation, tell a much different story. Those were easy leads in his last two, and he was just simply better. Brueggemann and Bridgmohan are on fire together, and this guy is getting better each time out and working well. The post is an obvious problem, but it may be a good thing to allow for this one to settle in behind the speed and make one run like a number of others in here. A potential bomber at 15/1 that will be interesting to watch on the tote board as I don't believe we'll get those odds.

W: :6::13:
EX: :6::13:/:2::6::13:
TRI: :2::6::13:/:2::6::13:/:2::3::6::10::11::13:

Nice call on the Win ticket!
close on the exotics. Pretty good capping :ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

close. Pretty good capping :ThmbUp:

That was painful. :(

:5: Forevamo runs his eyeballs out to kill me.

Definitely didn't see the :13: doing what he did, but damn was he game today running monster fractions up front of :22.95, and :46.39.

[garyscpa]

I think TimeformUS is 3 for 3 in Derby preps this year.

[RIsurfcaster]

That was painful. :(

:5: Forevamo runs his eyeballs out to kill me.

Definitely didn't see the :13: doing what he did, but damn was he game today running monster fractions up front of :22.95, and :46.39.


I was very impressed as well. He was running in a 15kMc not long ago.

[Parson]

Dang :5: wrecked every ticket. I did not see him until after the race. But look at the sire, Uncle MO :bang:

[PhantomOnTour]

Once again folks, Al Stall blows up the exotics in a Derby prep at FG.

Ketchikan
Terrain
My Pal Charlie

all bombs who ran 2nd in the LaDerby...and today he throws one in the Risen Star at 40-1.
I've made a few posts and threads about Stall. He is quality

[cj]

I think TimeformUS is 3 for 3 in Derby preps this year.

Winner gets a 113 Speed Figure. I'd be careful giving Mo Tom too much credit for his trouble today. Sure, he ran into traffic for a bit, but the pace was much to his benefit.

[ArlJim78]

Once again folks, Al Stall blows up the exotics in a Derby prep at FG.

Ketchikan
Terrain
My Pal Charlie

all bombs who ran 2nd in the LaDerby...and today he throws one in the Risen Star at 40-1.
I've made a few posts and threads about Stall. He is quality
Speaking of bombs, how about Amoss blowing up the Rachel Alexandra?

[menifee]

Anybody else think that race was subpar? The top 3 are probably in the Derby and I'm tossing them out as win candidates.

[Tom]

Sub par.....most certainly.
I bet a few of them could be tough in a NW1 race in the future, though.

[Robert Fischer]

Sub par.....most certainly.
I bet a few of them could be tough in a NW1 race in the future, though.


I'm with you guys. At least my initial viewing of the race didn't leave me following any of these horses.
The pace seemed pretty good. 2 ran a pretty good race in defeat.
The 6 ran his good race, but things still got more interesting than it should have in the stretch considering the initiative that the 6 Gun Runner had entering the stretch...

I think we have a good feeling on 5 Forevamo by now, and hats off Stall for a nice training job, but he's not a stakes horse.

[PhantomOnTour]

I'm with you guys. At least my initial viewing of the race didn't leave me following any of these horses.
The pace seemed pretty good. 2 ran a pretty good race in defeat.
The 6 ran his good race, but things still got more interesting than it should have in the stretch considering the initiative that the 6 Gun Runner had entering the stretch...

I think we have a good feeling on 5 Forevamo by now, and hats off Stall for a nice training job, but he's not a stakes horse.
He already won a 200k stake at Delta and has now finished 2nd in a Gr2

[PowerUpPaynter]

Did Airoforce finish the race yet? what the hell happened?

[camourous]

Did Airoforce finish the race yet? what the hell happened?


Never ran on a fast dirt track. You know the connections had their doubts when they were talking about putting him back on turf if he didn't handle the dirt this race.

[Parson]

Casse was quoted in Blood Horse "Airoforce is off the triple crown trail'

I think maybe the Woodford on Derby Day undercard?

[PowerUpPaynter]

The Louisiana and New York horses seem to be very very weak this year...

[cj]

The Louisiana and New York horses seem to be very very weak this year...

What New York horses? The best ones are at GP right now.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Casse was quoted in Blood Horse "Airoforce is off the triple crown trail'

I think maybe the Woodford on Derby Day undercard?

No way are they putting him in a G1 9F turf race against older males this early in his 3YO campaign.

Especially after his effort yesterday regardless of surface. He needs a couple of solid turf races under his belt with wins, if not at least really solid races, in order to take that kind of leap.

There are some 3YO Graded Stakes turf races I'm sure he'll be pointed towards. Might even see him in a Non Graded Stakes race or OC$80K without a tag next out.

[PowerUpPaynter]

What New York horses? The best ones are at GP right now.


exactly.... the best one might be Sunny Ridge and they would rather win the Haskell then the derby and may not even go to derby even if the qualify...


NY has been week for a long time.




When and where is Brody's cause ever going to run? What are they waiting for...

[Striker]

When and where is Brody's cause ever going to run? What are they waiting for...
Tampa Bay Derby on March 12th

[Robert Fischer]

That :13: Candy My Boy ran a good race.
I don't think he'll be a big time horse, but he ran a better than his finish position. Maybe he could steal a sprint with a sharp placing.

The :6: Gun Runner looked strong, but he has to solve that issue in the stretch whether it is breathing, or his right lead. Things really went his way here.

[Parson]

You are correct on the Woodford. I was not thinking clearly. Too much for him against older horses.

[Frost king]

More than likely run in the Trannsylvannia at Keeneland.

[Ghostzapper04]

exactly.... the best one might be Sunny Ridge and they would rather win the Haskell then the derby and may not even go to derby even if the qualify...


NY has been week for a long time.




When and where is Brody's cause ever going to run? What are they waiting for...

Even though they have the monthly series starting in very early January, Derby fever rarely ever catches on in NY prior to the Gotham.

[f2tornado]

I looked back on Gun Runner from a breeding perspective and cannot find any red flags. He's has a Dosage of 1.25 and CD of 0.17 suggesting stamina for distance. He has the Raise A Native sire line which has won bulk of Derby races the past two plus decades. Digging deep will find Cequillo on dam side which provides Princequillo, Mahmoud, and Man O'War. Digging really deep will find Lygie in tail female (same as Triple Crown winner Omaha). I'm certainly not excited about the horse but cannot yet throw it out. Will see how he does at 9F first.

Amusingly, I accidentally made a Risen Star tri bet 5/2,6 but caught my error right before post and cancelled that wager. Would have been quite cranky had that 5 held on.