Using Bris Power Rankings

[BeatTheChalk]

Has anyone looked at these ratings to see how they are working...? I get the PP's for free when I download files for
Aodds. Havent really had a chance to do any research..figuring
that somebody here has already done it :) thanks. I also heard
that some of the " sharpies " are making Custom PP's .. looking
for races where the top horse has a big advantage over the
2nd horse. Good nite from St Louis and go Cards ( I am now
a big fan...because they are winning )

[Zaf]

Good Number, but produces a lot of chalk :(

ZAFONIC

[Thomason]

Statistically, the winner comes from the top 5 Prime Power horses 80-85% of the time, depending on the track. The top 4 will produce the winner over 70% of the time. Zafonic is right, they're good numbers but usually they're pointing to the chalk. Garyoz (who posts on this Board) has mentioned that they measure speed and class which, of course, is heavily played.

[Thomason]

Another point about Prime Power numbers, if you're downloading one of the BRIS data files, you can sort the horses on Prime Power using the PP Custom Generator. The winner will usually show up on the first two pages.

[Secretariat]

Generally my workouts show the Bris Prime losing about 9 cents on average per dollar bet. Of course it varies track to track. Not bad overall.

[andicap]

OK, if the BRIS Prime Power tends to point to chalk, might it have another great use: a better morning line indicator than the track's?

Can anyone with a DB measure the BRIS number as a predictor of favorites vs the ML at each track??

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by andicap
OK, if the BRIS Prime Power tends to point to chalk, might it have another great use: a better morning line indicator than the track's?

Can anyone with a DB measure the BRIS number as a predictor of favorites vs the ML at each track??

I ran a quick run through the AngleMaker program of the Belmont meetings of 2001, 2002 and 2003 playing only the top Bris Prime when it was the favorite. Here are the results:

ALL Favorites: 2475 attempts, 896 winners, 36.20% win, 0.87 ROI

Bris Prime and Favorite: 1377 attempts, 551 winners, 40.01% win, 0.88 ROI

Looks like an increased win percent with a slight increase in ROI.

A few subsets were profitable:

MdClm Dirt Sprint - 47.5% win, 1.09 ROI
ALW, Dirt Sprints - 50% win, 1.04 ROI
Graded Stks, Dirt sprints - 48.48% win, 1.01 ROI

Non-GRaded Stakes, Dirt Routes - 60% win, 1.32 ROI
MSW, Turf sprints - 40% win, 1.21 ROI
ALW, Turf sprints - 100% win, 2.00 ROI

[andicap]

Is there a way of using a Db to find corrolatins with the BRIS power ranking and eventual odds and the ML.
For example, look at where the ML favorite ended up in the final odds vs the top BRIS number.
Was the BRIS top choice the public choice more often than the ML?
How about the 2nd choice of each?

In short, which does a better job of predicting the public's behavior -- BRIS Prime Power or the ML.

[Tom]

If someone can do it, try his-what is the win pecentage of the top Power horse when it is the ML fav, 2nd ML, 3rd ML, and worse ML.
Hurricakane gave us a great spot play for HTR numbers with the ML horses when they were not top 2 K rated. I use it everyday and throw out hundreds of bad favs.
ML fav=1, PP >1
ML fav=2, PP>2

This could be a good thing, but I have no BRIS db to check it out.

[Flysofree]

How do the Bris Power Ratings compare with TSN's power numbers?
TSN also uses the term "prime" for numbers that are a certain point higher than the next horse.

[BillW]

Originally posted by Flysofree
How do the Bris Power Ratings compare with TSN's power numbers?
TSN also uses the term "prime" for numbers that are a certain point higher than the next horse.

They seem to be about the same. Probably same calculation using the TSN (Equibase) numbers.

Bill

[Flysofree]

Thanks Bill,
Several weeks ago I sent Bris an email asking about their speed figures and how they compared to those of TSN . They replied that their numbers were a little higher than the TSN figures. I believe he said by about 3 to 7 points .

[BillW]

Yea, they use "secret sauce" in their figs and don't advertise their formula. The TSN numbers are Equibase, I believe (i.e. the ones published in the equibase programs that are sold at tracks).

Bill

[bettheoverlay]

I don't do data bases, but that top PPower # seems an uncanny predicter of favortism. I haven't figured out a profitable way to use it, though I have had some success with PP2 and PP3 when going off at 6/1 or better after filtering out negative factors.

Couple of months ago I started playing exactas using the top PP# with an advantage of 4 pts or more, and was the favorite, on top, over the horse going off the highest odds of the next 3, after again filtering out negative factors. Great initial success, of course, followed by the inevitable losing streak. Going to revisit the concept though.

[BillW]

Originally posted by bettheoverlay
I haven't figured out a profitable way to use it,



Bet,
I think you just did. ;) ...

an uncanny predicter of favortism

Bill

[Bruddah]

However, instead of looking for the prime number to find the winner or ML fav....Why couldn't it be used as an elimination tool?? Example: Do the lowest prime numbers actually point to horses which can be eliminated in the use of trifectas and superfectas...Now you would have found a way for it to be really profitable.

[BillW]

Originally posted by Bruddah
However, instead of looking for the prime number to find the winner or ML fav....Why couldn't it be used as an elimination tool?? Example: Do the lowest prime numbers actually point to horses which can be eliminated in the use of trifectas and superfectas...Now you would have found a way for it to be really profitable.

Pretty much my point Bruddah (See post right above yours), except I was thinking more about the top end. It can be a better indicator of the favorite than the morning line at some tracks. Not betting on the favorite can be a good thing :).

Bill

[BeatTheChalk]

Some truly good info from all. Cheers ... Earl ..