Chasing Rainbows

[MonmouthParkJoe]

The rainbow pick 6 at Gulfstream has a carryover of over $1.3 million. Due to the nature of the bet and only one single ticket being able to collect the entire pool, is there a point when the carryover gets so large that it becomes almost impossible to hit the wager with the only single ticket?

I know there are alot of mathematically inclined people on this site, so I was wondering if anyone did any statistics on this. I would think that most bigger betters attack these pools once they get to a certain size with the carryover. With the small base price being 20 cents and the huge potential reward, Im sure there are some big tickets being bet into this pool. Is this something that could roll into closing day when it has to pay out?

I see this bet carried over everyday with the same thought, this will never get hit until there is a mandatory payout.

[ebcorde]

The rainbow pick 6 at Gulfstream has a carryover of over $1.3 million. Due to the nature of the bet and only one single ticket being able to collect the entire pool, is there a point when the carryover gets so large that it becomes almost impossible to hit the wager with the only single ticket?

I know there are alot of mathematically inclined people on this site, so I was wondering if anyone did any statistics on this. I would think that most bigger betters attack these pools once they get to a certain size with the carryover. With the small base price being 20 cents and the huge potential reward, Im sure there are some big tickets being bet into this pool. Is this something that could roll into closing day when it has to pay out?

I see this bet carried over everyday with the same thought, this will never get hit until there is a mandatory payout.



when the magic jack guy won he had the right strategy. Play it when most players are not. I do not play it on Sat/Sun.

And they telegraph their intentions by the many low to average Turf purse races. Today 5 turf races after Race 6, 3 Maidens

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I used to do that alot at Monmouth when they ran on Friday. Hit a couple times last summer with the same idea, most people are wagering on saturday and sunday. It got exponentially harder to be the single ticket as the carryover grew

[1st time lasix]

We all know the rainbow single winner concept is a very poor exotic play. The takeout hurdle is onerous.... so even if you win with others...you are being underpaid for the risk you take. That is just as true mid-week as it is on the weekend. I have no illusion that I can string along enough real long shots with a handicapper's chance to be the only winner. ***Having said that...I personally like to handicap the late pick 5 which generally comes a single race later. At post time just prior to the six sequence,,,,, I find myself simply throwing out the top couple of public favorites in race one and tossing the favorite in race two (based on the double will-pay). Using what is left on my pick five contender mix...I play a modest 20 cent ticket or two with my wide net. Of course I miss often- simply praying for chaos in first couple legs. ... but have hit it three times now for over 2 grand each time. Assume my total outlay has been less than $400 or so in total. if a longer shot doesn't win the first leg...so what...I was going to play the pick five anyway.

[Stillriledup]

The best strategy is to not get greedy and just try and hit it, even if that means playing chalky combinations. There's a LOT of money on horses with really no shot. The pick 6 paid 1400 for 50 cents yesterday adding a 2.60 winner vs the pick 5 that only paid a shade under 500.

If you try n be the only winner you'll be betting on horses who you might otherwise never play.

[Hard2Like]

Mandatory pay out days only, for me.
Speaking of which, does anybody know the next scheduled force out day?
Must admit the big carryovers, such as now, do seem attractive.

[therussmeister]

There is a legitimate philosophy that if winning would be a life-changing score, and you could easily afford to lose a few bucks, you should take a shot regardless of the takeout and odds. This of course also applies to the lottery. Whilst I, in principle, agree with this, I have never played either the rainbow six or the lottery.

[no breathalyzer]

very sweet play when the carryover gets this large period... if you have half a brain and keep the ticket reasonable.. when the carry over gets this big it always over pays regardless if you have to share a shit load of times.. because all the big boys playing ridiculous tickets... shit load of dead $$$ in the pool

[tanner12oz]

The rainbow pick 6 at Gulfstream has a carryover of over $1.3 million. Due to the nature of the bet and only one single ticket being able to collect the entire pool, is there a point when the carryover gets so large that it becomes almost impossible to hit the wager with the only single ticket?

I know there are alot of mathematically inclined people on this site, so I was wondering if anyone did any statistics on this. I would think that most bigger betters attack these pools once they get to a certain size with the carryover. With the small base price being 20 cents and the huge potential reward, Im sure there are some big tickets being bet into this pool. Is this something that could roll into closing day when it has to pay out?

I see this bet carried over everyday with the same thought, this will never get hit until there is a mandatory payout.

the answer is yes. Although bizarre things can happen the bigger the pools get the less likely it is to hit.

[castaway01]

We all know the rainbow single winner concept is a very poor exotic play. The takeout hurdle is onerous.... so even if you win with others...you are being underpaid for the risk you take. That is just as true mid-week as it is on the weekend. I have no illusion that I can string along enough real long shots with a handicapper's chance to be the only winner. ***Having said that...I personally like to handicap the late pick 5 which generally comes a single race later. At post time just prior to the six sequence,,,,, I find myself simply throwing out the top couple of public favorites in race one and tossing the favorite in race two (based on the double will-pay). Using what is left on my pick five contender mix...I play a modest 20 cent ticket or two with my wide net. Of course I miss often- simply praying for chaos in first couple legs. ... but have hit it three times now for over 2 grand each time. Assume my total outlay has been less than $400 or so in total. if a longer shot doesn't win the first leg...so what...I was going to play the pick five anyway.

While this bet is a terrible investment, I think your plan is as clever and logical as any way of playing it that I've heard.

[ronsmac]

It annoys me when I see Caton Bredar on Tvg give out a rainbow six ticket. The goal is to be the only winning ticket.

[thaskalos]

It annoys me when I see Caton Bredar on Tvg give out a rainbow six ticket. The goal is to be the only winning ticket.
Good point. :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

It annoys me when I see Caton Bredar on Tvg give out a rainbow six ticket. The goal is to be the only winning ticket.

Exactly! She's giving out a ticket that by definition has no shot. :lol:

[cj]

I said this same exact thing on Twitter when she posted it. I don't see why anyone would promote an actual Rainbow Six ticket.

[Stillriledup]

I said this same exact thing on Twitter when she posted it. I don't see why anyone would promote an actual Rainbow Six ticket.

Unless they don't want you to really hit it as the sole winner. Therein lies the rub. Caton Bredar is criticizing Serling but here she is giving out a ticket that she knows can't win, which is anti-player.

[no breathalyzer]

to spark conversation ... like i said when the carryover is this large it overlays when you hit it.. it is a very sweet bet rite now and hope noone hits it for a while

[KidCruz]

very sweet play when the carryover gets this large period... if you have half a brain and keep the ticket reasonable.. when the carry over gets this big it always over pays regardless if you have to share a shit load of times.. because all the big boys playing ridiculous tickets... shit load of dead $$$ in the pool


I have come around to this just over the last couple weeks. I used to be in "avoid at all costs except mandatory days" camp. But the proof is in the payouts over the last couple weeks. Extremely chalky tickets are paying handsomely. If you could find Faufiler today at 12-1, he and 4 favorites and 1 second choice paid 1400 bucks. 5 of the 6 winners being basically defaulted onto all tickets and still paying 1400 screams like one of the best bets at the track at least while the c/o is this large. Am I missing something?

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I actually hit this yesterday. Not a bad payoff at all.

[tanner12oz]

I have come around to this just over the last couple weeks. I used to be in "avoid at all costs except mandatory days" camp. But the proof is in the payouts over the last couple weeks. Extremely chalky tickets are paying handsomely. If you could find Faufiler today at 12-1, he and 4 favorites and 1 second choice paid 1400 bucks. 5 of the 6 winners being basically defaulted onto all tickets and still paying 1400 screams like one of the best bets at the track at least while the c/o is this large. Am I missing something?

nope your not missing anything..the name of the game is to hit this thing..i personally think you should play it like any other ticket. People get silly trying to use unusable horses creating instant dead tix. Dont donate simply try to hit the thing.