Angles and Edges Part 1

[VigorsTheGrey]

In my first post entitled "You bet your edges" I learned that I really did not know what an edge was.

I am not a professional gambler, just a longtime fan who usually bets $1 win bets on longshots, $1 exacta part wheels and dime super part wheels...I do this for a hobby but it is rather more like an obsession.

I'm sure most of you would understand how devoted I am to horse racing, otherwise I probably wouldn't be writing this at ten at night and you must be somewhat devoted to the sport also otherwise why would you be reading this?

Thanks to some insightful posts I'm starting to get a clue what an edge is.

Thaskalos said, "An "angle" is usually a particular, systematic method of play, even if this method is unprofitable...whereas an "edge" is the ADVANTAGE that the totality of our play holds over our competition. When a player says that he has an "edge" in a particular gambling game...it means that he considers himself to be a winning player in that game."

And Raybo added, "One can have a hundred "angles" but if they do not show a positive ROI in the long term, then he has no "edge" at all. "Edge" means you have an advantage over the game of making profit, versus losing money or breaking even, long term. One can have a "short term" edge, or an edge in certain races, but those are "conditional edges", and they might not allow the player to make profit long term."

Both of the above quotes were very thought provoking for me and I thank both Thaskalos and Raybo for their contributions.

I thought of another complimentary definition: One type of edge for me is important information about a certain horse or certain horses or types of races or race conditions that the larger public is, for the most part, unaware of, and that might be put to good use in order to win a wager. Computer users, perhaps, have an edge over non-computer users due largely to the plethora of statistical information and handicapping software available. This statistical information greatly aids me in my efforts to prognosticate the outcome of any given horse race. It gives me an advantage over other bettors who cannot bring up the outcomes of the last, say 300 races, at Tampa Bay, for example. But even with superior prognosis, this alone does not necessarily translate into a long term return-on-investment (ROI) for a variety of reasons...and we must account for these if we are to maintain "an "edge", meaning, the ADVANTAGE that the totality of our play holds over our competition."

Angles from Original Post:
1. Pace Top and Flop
2. Turf Marathon Turnbackers
3. On/ Off/ On/ Off Angle
4. Second Time Starters
5. Run Fresh, Then Regress
6. Third Start after Layoff

Biggestal99:
1. class drop, track change bet 10-1 or better, bomber angle
2. single race as 2 year old; bet down to 5-1 or less, loses layoff bet first start as 3 YO (5-1 or better)
3. 5 year old gelding with no wins as 4 year old bet first two starts as a 5 YO season at 10-1 or better
4. 2 year old second time dropping into MCL after running in MSW first out.(10-1 or better)

Please feel free to add your favorite angles and edges as I will compile them regularly. Thank you.
Regards, Vigors.

[raybo]

In my first post entitled "You bet your edges" I learned that I really did not know what an edge was.

I am not a professional gambler, just a longtime fan who usually bets $1 win bets on longshots, $1 exacta part wheels and dime super part wheels...I do this for a hobby but it is rather more like an obsession.

I'm sure most of you would understand how devoted I am to horse racing, otherwise I probably wouldn't be writing this at ten at night and you must be somewhat devoted to the sport also otherwise why would you be reading this?

Thanks to some insightful posts I'm starting to get a clue what an edge is.

Thaskalos said, "An "angle" is usually a particular, systematic method of play, even if this method is unprofitable...whereas an "edge" is the ADVANTAGE that the totality of our play holds over our competition. When a player says that he has an "edge" in a particular gambling game...it means that he considers himself to be a winning player in that game."

And Raybo added, "One can have a hundred "angles" but if they do not show a positive ROI in the long term, then he has no "edge" at all. "Edge" means you have an advantage over the game of making profit, versus losing money or breaking even, long term. One can have a "short term" edge, or an edge in certain races, but those are "conditional edges", and they might not allow the player to make profit long term."

Both of the above quotes were very thought provoking for me and I thank both Thaskalos and Raybo for their contributions.

I thought of another complimentary definition: One type of edge for me is important information about a certain horse or certain horses or types of races or race conditions that the larger public is, for the most part, unaware of, and that might be put to good use in order to win a wager. Computer users, perhaps, have an edge over non-computer users due largely to the plethora of statistical information and handicapping software available. This statistical information greatly aids me in my efforts to prognosticate the outcome of any given horse race. It gives me an advantage over other bettors who cannot bring up the outcomes of the last, say 300 races, at Tampa Bay, for example. But even with superior prognosis, this alone does not necessarily translate into a long term return-on-investment (ROI) for a variety of reasons...and we must account for these if we are to maintain "an "edge", meaning, the ADVANTAGE that the totality of our play holds over our competition."

Angles from Original Post:
1. Pace Top and Flop
2. Turf Marathon Turnbackers
3. On/ Off/ On/ Off Angle
4. Second Time Starters
5. Run Fresh, Then Regress
6. Third Start after Layoff

Biggestal99:
1. class drop, track change bet 10-1 or better, bomber angle
2. single race as 2 year old; bet down to 5-1 or less, loses layoff bet first start as 3 YO (5-1 or better)
3. 5 year old gelding with no wins as 4 year old bet first two starts as a 5 YO season at 10-1 or better
4. 2 year old second time dropping into MCL after running in MSW first out.(10-1 or better)

Please feel free to add your favorite angles and edges as I will compile them regularly. Thank you.
Regards, Vigors.

Edges

The best edge one can have, IMO, is threefold:

Patience
Discipline
Consistency

The lack of any of these mental/emotional positive traits, in both handicapping and wagering, will override any positive angle or edge you may have, or may develop.

[ultracapper]

Edges

The best edge one can have, IMO, is threefold:

Patience
Discipline
Consistency

The lack of any of these mental/emotional positive traits, in both handicapping and wagering, will override any positive angle or edge you may have, or may develop.

Gold Standard

[EMD4ME]

Ferraro has had 2 recent 2nd time starters improve 10 lengths in their 2nd start.

Race 4 today at AQU he has another one (2TS) that showed some excuses and ability in his 1st start.

Great horse to use in TRIS/EX/SUPS. Great price too.

An angle and edge that is not available to the masses unless they study.

General angles are nice but specific angles are 10X better.

[Secondbest]

Ferraro has had 2 recent 2nd time starters improve 10 lengths in their 2nd start.

Race 4 today at AQU he has another one (2TS) that showed some excuses and ability in his 1st start.

Great horse to use in TRIS/EX/SUPS. Great price too.

An angle and edge that is not available to the masses unless they study.

General angles are nice but specific angles are 10X better.
Good to know.Thanks

[VigorsTheGrey]

Edges

The best edge one can have, IMO, is threefold:

Patience
Discipline
Consistency

The lack of any of these mental/emotional positive traits, in both handicapping and wagering, will override any positive angle or edge you may have, or may develop.

At last, Holy Grail Edges emerge...Thank you, Raybo for setting me straight and I mean this sincerely...I no longer wish to be the Don Quixote of Handicapping...spewing forth my half-educated, pseudo-intellectual self-absorbed romances and speculations...my own "Donkey Hotay" ...ie, BS.

You know that as a deeply romantic character of my own imagination, I legend in my own mind as I am, the three virtues noted above have always been my nemeses. But I am changing! I want more...I want to stay in the game and learn to survive AND thrive...I do not ask for much, only the ability to fund my modest play...and to break even...and to have fun..to expect more would SEEM to be folly for me, given my severe handicap in following the true path of handicapping virtue you mentioned above...

...Raybo, you have done an incredible service for me in pointing out where the TRUE EDGES LIE...in Patience, Discipline and Consistency. These ARE after all what all my inner contradictions and conflations are seeking...I shall carry these three cardinals forward now and I realize how important they are not just in handicapping BUT IN LIFE IN GENERAL!

I have less windmills to tilt at now, all the better, and I now can examine all through the glass of those great lenses...

Regards,
Vigors.

[Cratos]

Edges

The best edge one can have, IMO, is threefold:

Patience
Discipline
Consistency

The lack of any of these mental/emotional positive traits, in both handicapping and wagering, will override any positive angle or edge you may have, or may develop.
You nailed it; keep up the good work!!!!!!

[pandy]

When you say that an "angle" isn't good unless it shows a positive ROI, well, if you mean on straight win bets, I would disagree. An angle doesn't have to produce a profit on straight win bets to be a viable angle.

For example, say you're playing a Pick 4 and using three horses a race, and you throw in a horse that fits one of your favorite angles...and the horse wins and pays $40 and you hit the Pick 4 for $9,000. Whether or not that angle shows a long term profit on a straight win bet is a moot point. It just helped you have a big score.

Someone I know, who is a professional handicapper/writer, hit a pick 6 for over $90,000 and if I remember correctly, at least one of the winners was a horse he used because of an angle. He's not a big gambler, so he is in the black, like, forever.

[thaskalos]

When you say that an "angle" isn't good unless it shows a positive ROI, well, if you mean on straight win bets, I would disagree. An angle doesn't have to produce a profit on straight win bets to be a viable angle.

For example, say you're playing a Pick 4 and using three horses a race, and you throw in a horse that fits one of your favorite angles...and the horse wins and pays $40 and you hit the Pick 4 for $9,000. Whether or not that angle shows a long term profit on a straight win bet is a moot point. It just helped you have a big score.

Someone I know, who is a professional handicapper/writer, hit a pick 6 for over $90,000 and if I remember correctly, at least one of the winners was a horse he used because of an angle. He's not a big gambler, so he is in the black, like, forever.

I admire these "professional handicappers/writers"...who remain "small bettors" in spite of their playing skill. They mustn't need the money. :ThmbUp:

[pandy]

I admire these "professional handicappers/writers"...who remain "small bettors" in spite of their playing skill. They mustn't need the money. :ThmbUp:


I didn't say he was a small bettor, I said he wasn't a big gambler. The guy hit a $90,000 Pick 6 on a ticket that he spent less than $100 on, pretty damn good.

[delayjf]

Curious - what is the pace top and flop angle?

[raybo]

Curious - what is the pace top and flop angle?

Obviously there's more to it than just running a new top pace figure, because sometimes running a new top pace figure is a signal of impending improvement. As you, and most others here know, a new top pace figure does not necessarily equate to a flop in the next race.

[delayjf]

I'm thinking its similar to the old Ray Taulbot "beaten A" angle. Were the horse runs what appears to be a dull race immediately after the pace top / improved early speed race. The object is to throw off the crowd who tends to bet improved early speed, then go for the kill on the second start after the pace top.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I admire these "professional handicappers/writers"...who remain "small bettors" in spite of their playing skill. They mustn't need the money. :ThmbUp:
I'm sure that you've run into people who simply can't stand the pressure. Put $100 on a horse and they as likely as not to throw up in the stretch. I've always thought everyone has a breaking point beyond which they can't psychologically deal with the losses. I know a guy who has been playing forever and his big win bet on a solid horse is still $15. Just a possible theory.

[thaskalos]

I'm sure that you've run into people who simply can't stand the pressure. Put $100 on a horse and they as likely as not to throw up in the stretch. I've always thought everyone has a breaking point beyond which they can't psychologically deal with the losses. I know a guy who has been playing forever and his big win bet on a solid horse is still $15. Just a possible theory.
Here is what I find confusing:

I meet some players who tell me that they are great handicappers...and that they've been beating this game for years and years. They treat horse betting as a "business"...they tell me. And when they pick the occasional winner, they'll proudly show me their ticket...and it's always in the neighborhood of $20 to win...or a bunch of $3 exacta combinations -- which cost them around $18. When I ask them why their bets are so small given their elevated level of skill, and history of success in the game...they reply that their philosophy is to "bet a little to win a lot". :)

Maybe it's just me...but this sort of thinking just doesn't sound very "business-like" to me. I understand the guy who can't bear to bet $100 on a horse. But the experienced handicapping "expert" who can't bring himself to bet even HALF of that, remains a mystery to me.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Here is what I find confusing:

I meet some players who tell me that they are great handicappers...and that they've been beating this game for years and years. They treat horse betting as a "business"...they tell me. And when they pick the occasional winner, they'll proudly show me their ticket...and it's always in the neighborhood of $20 to win...or a bunch of $3 exacta combinations -- which cost them around $18. When I ask them why their bets are so small given their elevated level of skill, and history of success in the game...they reply that their philosophy is to "bet a little to win a lot". :)

Maybe it's just me...but this sort of thinking just doesn't sound very "business-like" to me. I understand the guy who can't bear to bet $100 on a horse. But the experienced handicapping "expert" who can't bring himself to bet even HALF of that, remains a mystery to me.
If you are betting $20 to win and a $3 exacta, it's a sidelight, a hobby. That's perfectly fine, but winning and losing can't be that critical.

[pondman]

You will only know your edge if you have one.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Curious - what is the pace top and flop angle?

I got the idea for this thread from Horseracingnation.com in their free download entitled "longshot angles." Here is what they have to say:

"The Pace Top and Flop features horses that did not run a top
speed rating but did run a top pace figure. Then just as we see
with a horse running a top speed figure, a horse running a top
pace figure is highly likely to regress next time out. Looking at
just speed ratings won’t reveal this secret angle....

I think this is related to the "bounce" angle and is more a negative angle than a positive one....Please correct me if I am misinformed? Vigors.

PS..I got the other 4 angles from the same source and the last one is well known.

[PhantomOnTour]

I like to play runners who went wide into the clubhouse turn, esp if it's close to the starting gate, and double esp if it's at a tighter turned track like FG.

Wide into the first turn at FG (on dirt) is usually death.
Note the trip the top 3 finishers in the Risen Star had.

[ultracapper]

Here is what I find confusing:

I meet some players who tell me that they are great handicappers...and that they've been beating this game for years and years. They treat horse betting as a "business"...they tell me. And when they pick the occasional winner, they'll proudly show me their ticket...and it's always in the neighborhood of $20 to win...or a bunch of $3 exacta combinations -- which cost them around $18. When I ask them why their bets are so small given their elevated level of skill, and history of success in the game...they reply that their philosophy is to "bet a little to win a lot". :)

Maybe it's just me...but this sort of thinking just doesn't sound very "business-like" to me. I understand the guy who can't bear to bet $100 on a horse. But the experienced handicapping "expert" who can't bring himself to bet even HALF of that, remains a mystery to me.

I think it was a poster that goes by the name of "Andy...something", maybe AndyC that said something about 12-15 months ago that I thought was profound. It was to the effect..."Everybody has a choke point, a point when the money they put on the table affects the way they play the game. Most people's choke point is pretty low". I used to see that in myself. When I'd get the idea that I was going to plop a little extra grease on this one, I'd start worrying about things, or considering things, that I usually didn't give a lot a credence to. I knew what AndyC was trying to say when he posted that.

The worst thing I can do (It's not near as bad as it used to be) is to make a decision how many units I'm going to place on my next bet. If I say to myself, "I'm putting 3X amount of units on my next bet (X being my standard bet). I'm just not placing a bet until I can find one that's worth 3X." When I say that to myself, I'm just constructing the gallows, getting ready to put my head in. Same thing with odds. "I'm not betting until I get 6/1, or whatever". That's another thing that screws me up.

I just have to handicap the race, determine whether it's a good bet or not, determine just how good a bet it is if it's a good one at all, and then bet accordingly. I've gotten much better at this over the past 4 or 5 years, but I understand what AndyC was saying.

[thaskalos]

I think it was a poster that goes by the name of "Andy...something", maybe AndyC that said something about 12-15 months ago that I thought was profound. It was to the effect..."Everybody has a choke point, a point when the money they put on the table affects the way they play the game. Most people's choke point is pretty low". I used to see that in myself. When I'd get the idea that I was going to plop a little extra grease on this one, I'd start worrying about things, or considering things, that I usually didn't give a lot a credence to. I knew what AndyC was trying to say when he posted that.

The worst thing I can do (It's not near as bad as it used to be) is to make a decision how many units I'm going to place on my next bet. If I say to myself, "I'm putting 3X amount of units on my next bet (X being my standard bet). I'm just not placing a bet until I can find one that's worth 3X." When I say that to myself, I'm just constructing the gallows, getting ready to put my head in. Same thing with odds. "I'm not betting until I get 6/1, or whatever". That's another thing that screws me up.

I just have to handicap the race, determine whether it's a good bet or not, determine just how good a bet it is if it's a good one at all, and then bet accordingly. I've gotten much better at this over the past 4 or 5 years, but I understand what AndyC was saying.

Forget about assigning different bet sizes to every bet that you make. It leads only to confusion and second-guessing. Keep your bets flat for a while...and see how it goes. Only a minute percentage of the horseplayers know how to properly size their bets...the rest are only fooling themselves. Or they need ready-made excuses...so they could say that they pick plenty of winners...but they don't know how to bet them the right way.

Prove to yourself that you can win with flat bets first...and THEN worry about betting "optimally".

[VigorsTheGrey]

Forget about assigning different bet sizes to every bet that you make. It leads only to confusion and second-guessing. Keep your bets flat for a while...and see how it goes. Only a minute percentage of the horseplayers know how to properly size their bets...the rest are only fooling themselves. Or they need ready-made excuses...so they could say that they pick plenty of winners...but they don't know how to bet them the right way.

Prove to yourself that you can win with flat bets first...and THEN worry about betting "optimally".

Ok I will make only flat bets tomorrow at the amount of 8 units each. But is this to win only at 3-1 or more...or to place or show as long as I get 3-1 or more?

[thaskalos]

Ok I will make only flat bets tomorrow at the amount of 8 units each. But is this to win only at 3-1 or more...or to place or show as long as I get 3-1 or more?

1 unit each...until you overcome your..."delusions".

[VigorsTheGrey]

1 unit each...until you overcome your..."delusions".

ok $5 to win....how about dutching? min odds target?

[raybo]

ok $5 to win....how about dutching? min odds target?

How much is your starting bankroll going to be? You could start at 1/2% of bankroll as your base bet, for win bets. You could dutch a total of up to 2% of your bankroll, because your probability of winning is higher. So, if your bankroll is $1000, then your win bet would be $1000 x .005 = $5.00. Your dutch total bet with a $1000 bankroll would then be $1000 x .02 = $20.

The key to percentage of bankroll is selecting a percentage that offers a lot of protection against tapping out. Then you think "safe percentage" rather than "dollar amount". That way, as your bankroll grows, you are better able to handle higher bet amounts because you're thinking safe percentage instead of more dollars. It's a mind game you play with yourself.

If your bankroll grows to the point that the larger bet amount starts to creep back into your thinking and decision making, then take some profit and lower the bankroll back to a more comfortable level.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Thank you, Raybo, that is solid bankroll method that I can put into play....as I transition from a delusional bettor into a non-reckless one. I'll think about what you say here....I'd like to say that this is an easy thing to do ...but it is not....because it is the "antithesis of that "recklessness" that has characterized my play for years! A recklessness fully ingrained and entrenched into rigid behavioral patterns.

I have read about WHAT TO DO if I wanted to be more successful....but my pattern would remain the same....Go to ATM withdraw $200, play win/ place, exotics, come what may, pick many winners during the day, get real up early, play with house money all day on virtually every race because I like the action, dwindle down my winnings, then my original $200!

So many winning bets and yet such futility! I have vowed, NO MORE! I'm tired of being really good at picking winners AND so really good at losing money while doing it....it just doesn't make any sense! Like Thaskalos says change is difficult BUT CAN be accomplished if one tries...

[delayjf]

Then just as we see with a horse running a top speed figure, a horse running a top pace figure is highly likely to regress next time out. Looking at just speed ratings won’t reveal this secret angle....


The above fly's in the face of the research by Cary Fotias the author of "Blinkers Off" who emphatically stated that a new pace top is an indicator of improving form. I understand the regression off a Speed figure top, but Speed figure tops are more demanding than pace figure tops due to the prolonged effort required to achieve them.

[raybo]

The above fly's in the face of the research by Cary Fotias the author of "Blinkers Off" who emphatically stated that a new pace top is an indicator of improving form. I understand the regression off a Speed figure top, but Speed figure tops are more demanding than pace figure tops due to the prolonged effort required to achieve them.

I agree, a new top pace figure often comes from a race that was really a workout for a future race. The horse usually doesn't win with that new pace top, but gains conditioning for a future race, the one he's really aimed at.

[VigorsTheGrey]

The above fly's in the face of the research by Cary Fotias the author of "Blinkers Off" who emphatically stated that a new pace top is an indicator of improving form. I understand the regression off a Speed figure top, but Speed figure tops are more demanding than pace figure tops due to the prolonged effort required to achieve them.

Yes, I agree....Always have my eye out for that hidden workout or prep that shows up as a high early pace figure or excellent "middle move." Other than that the running line finish is abysmal....Don't know how many boxcar winners actually come thru with these hidden pace factors but methinks there is something to it.... :)

[pandy]

In my book, Pace Handicapping Longshots, I show how horses with a certain type of pace angle, part of which is strong pace figures in last start, gain a conditioning edge off of that race. Although there's more to my Pace Shape Method that just the pace figures.

But this generally would fall in line with the "new pace top" theory espoused by Gary Fotias.

However, that doesn't mean that all horses who show that improved early speed will run better in their next start. Some may bounce. It depends on a lot on the horse itself, and where the horse is in it's form cycle. The key is getting good value on the wager.

[pondman]

If all you have is ratings, your method will fail to make money. It requires a strong knowledge of distances and individual track surfaces to be able to make a profit. You had better be a big data person to try it this way. Are there plays that are profitable in the US? Yes, but they aren't as common as just walking to the window because you see a number. You just aren't going to go out and make money playing a 4 1/2 furlong race on dirt, as you would a 1 1/16 on turf. When you play this game, you will be up against people who have extensive knowledge as to what ratings to play at individual tracks and at what distances. And then you'll find out there are people who have thrown most of this out into the streets and walk away with wagon loads of money, because ratings are only a small part of their reasoning. I'd guess that the most

[pondman]

Here is what I find confusing:

.and it's always in the neighborhood of $20 to win...or a bunch of $3 exacta combinations -- which cost them around $18.

If I threw $18 into all my exacta plays, I'd net approximately $440 per day. That would be on an average of 24 races per day-- seven days per week. Some days go better than others, and others go bust. But at $18 a race it's still more than most people make at a regular job.

[thaskalos]

If I threw $18 into all my exacta plays, I'd net approximately $440 per day. That would be on an average of 24 races per day-- seven days per week. Some days go better than others, and others go bust. But at $18 a race it's still more than most people make at a regular job.

I BELIEVE you. And...if you ever worked up the courage to wager $180 a race...you would net approximately $4,400 a day. :ThmbUp:

[ultracapper]

1 unit each...until you overcome your..."delusions".

LOL!!!

[ultracapper]

Thank you, Raybo, that is solid bankroll method that I can put into play....as I transition from a delusional bettor into a non-reckless one. I'll think about what you say here....I'd like to say that this is an easy thing to do ...but it is not....because it is the "antithesis of that "recklessness" that has characterized my play for years! A recklessness fully ingrained and entrenched into rigid behavioral patterns.

I have read about WHAT TO DO if I wanted to be more successful....but my pattern would remain the same....Go to ATM withdraw $200, play win/ place, exotics, come what may, pick many winners during the day, get real up early, play with house money all day on virtually every race because I like the action, dwindle down my winnings, then my original $200!

So many winning bets and yet such futility! I have vowed, NO MORE! I'm tired of being really good at picking winners AND so really good at losing money while doing it....it just doesn't make any sense! Like Thaskalos says change is difficult BUT CAN be accomplished if one tries...

Vigs, I'm not trying to be harsh here, but after all this, you've kind of gotten off the rails. Thaskalos, and many others that have posted, are saying that you're kidding yourself. You're not picking near as many winners as you think. That paragraph that I took the snippet from, is the same old, same old. "I'm a great capper, but I don't....(bet right, don't show discipline, don't itch my ass correctly, you know, whatever). The point is,( and RAYBO beats this into the forum's head on a regular basis. You could set a clock by it.) you have to keep records, and they have to be inclusive, and honest. You can't ignore this bet or that bet, because I was goofing around, or I was playing a track with some friends to kill the time, or whatever. RECORD EVERY BET. Then comment on your win rate.

[ultracapper]

I BELIEVE you. And...if you ever worked up the courage to wager $180 a race...you would net approximately $4,400 a day. :ThmbUp:

Dude, you have been on a frikken historic roll the last couple weeks.

[raybo]

Thank you, Raybo, that is solid bankroll method that I can put into play....as I transition from a delusional bettor into a non-reckless one. I'll think about what you say here....I'd like to say that this is an easy thing to do ...but it is not....because it is the "antithesis of that "recklessness" that has characterized my play for years! A recklessness fully ingrained and entrenched into rigid behavioral patterns.

I have read about WHAT TO DO if I wanted to be more successful....but my pattern would remain the same....Go to ATM withdraw $200, play win/ place, exotics, come what may, pick many winners during the day, get real up early, play with house money all day on virtually every race because I like the action, dwindle down my winnings, then my original $200!

So many winning bets and yet such futility! I have vowed, NO MORE! I'm tired of being really good at picking winners AND so really good at losing money while doing it....it just doesn't make any sense! Like Thaskalos says change is difficult BUT CAN be accomplished if one tries...

That is a problem, no doubt, and one many players have. But, by betting a small percentage of bankroll, you are effectively flat betting, only raising the base bet amount when your bankroll increases enough for the percentage to add to your base bet amount. With the issues you have, trying to figure out how much to bet on a particular race is not suggested, as you will lose money at a faster rate due to increasing, or decreasing, your bet amount based on your "issue influenced" feelings at the time. By sticking with a flat bet, or a flat percentage of bankroll, those "issue influenced" feelings will be nullified, and your bankroll will be better protected from those issues. Yes, you might still lose long term, but it will be at a much slower rate.

There is a free percentage of bankroll plus percentage of profit Excel workbook that I uploaded here back in 2013 that should help you with your problem. It only works in MS Excel, due to the VBA macros included in it. Here's the link (The final version download is in post #48, below the code window.): http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=100881&page=2&pp=40&highlight=percentage+bankroll

[delayjf]

However, that doesn't mean that all horses who show that improved early speed will run better in their next start. Some may bounce. It depends on a lot on the horse itself, and where the horse is in it's form cycle. The key is getting good value on the wager.
Exactly, if the NPT horse is going off at long odds I take the plunge, if not I scale my bet down. Some times the improvement doesn't manifest itself in the next start for any number of reasons, i.e. poor trip, off track, or the trainer is using the next race to further his fitness.

In these cases, I like to see an even race where the horse petty much maintains his position around the track or perhaps a slight increase in his speed figure (a couple of points). I also will look for signs that the trainer is manipulating the horse based on a class moves. Lots of ways to do this, so you have to know your trainers / owners. One example is to drop the horse in class in the next start after the pace top. Improved early speed plus a class drop will normally attract betting action. But if the horse does not produce the expected improvement, then the public will forget about him in the 2nd start after the NPT. Trainers can manipulate the horses claiming price just by using weight allowances. So he can make a horse appear to go up or down in class based on the weight the horse will carry - again, it pays to know your trainers.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Vigs, I'm not trying to be harsh here, but after all this, you've kind of gotten off the rails. Thaskalos, and many others that have posted, are saying that you're kidding yourself. You're not picking near as many winners as you think. That paragraph that I took the snippet from, is the same old, same old. "I'm a great capper, but I don't....(bet right, don't show discipline, don't itch my ass correctly, you know, whatever). The point is,( and RAYBO beats this into the forum's head on a regular basis. You could set a clock by it.) you have to keep records, and they have to be inclusive, and honest. You can't ignore this bet or that bet, because I was goofing around, or I was playing a track with some friends to kill the time, or whatever. RECORD EVERY BET. Then comment on your win rate.

ultracapper,

Nobody is saying that about me but you just now...Everyone on this board has been very kind and helpful to me and you are the first person to say that I have "kind of gotten of the rails" ....

While I know my posts sound EXTREME it is only because I have a flair for writing and can at times be very DRAMATIC in my presentions....

Let me, assure you, ultra, that I am only describing my betting behavior as delusional because I can see how I am mirrored in Thaskalos' previous posts regarding people who are betting IRRATIONALLY. Other than how I have in the past approached betting, there is nothing delusional about me.

Do not be alarmed...this too shall pass....I am merely transitioning from a bettor who bets recklessly to a bettor who, in the end, will become more rational and composed. I must pass thru this crucible now, so be it, and I will be transformed....yes I have "gotten off the rails" as you say, thank the gods, for these rails were no good and were leading me to perdition...I now look forward to my rail-less future where I am capable of being the leader of own emotions....instead of being a slave to those self-same ones...

But I do agree wih you..I need to record my bets....so I have something to base my assertions on....otherwise, we are in the land of opinion and conjecture about our real situations ...so point taken, thank you...I look forward to sharing more ideas with you and always wish you the best...Regards,
Vigors

[ultracapper]

ultracapper,

Nobody is saying that about me but you just now...Everyone on this board has been very kind and helpful to me and you are the first person to say that I have "kind of gotten of the rails" ....

While I know my posts sound EXTREME it is only because I have a flair for writing and can at times be very DRAMATIC in my presentions....

Let me, assure you, ultra, that I am only describing my betting behavior as delusional because I can see how I am mirrored in Thaskalos' previous posts regarding people who are betting IRRATIONALLY. Other than how I have in the past approached betting, there is nothing delusional about me.

Do not be alarmed...this too shall pass....I am merely transitioning from a bettor who bets recklessly to a bettor who, in the end, will become more rational and composed. I must pass thru this crucible now, so be it, and I will be transformed....yes I have "gotten off the rails" as you say, thank the gods, for these rails were no good and were leading me to perdition...I now look forward to my rail-less future where I am capable of being the leader of own emotions....instead of being a slave to those self-same ones...

But I do agree wih you..I need to record my bets....so I have something to base my assertions on....otherwise, we are in the land of opinion and conjecture about our real situations ...so point taken, thank you...I look forward to sharing more ideas with you and always wish you the best...Regards,
Vigors

Didn't mean at all to be unkind. However, when you see the point to the sentence that I've underlined in the context that I'm speaking about, ie: gamblers fooling themselves, you will be grasping the point of much of what Thask has been talking about. Thask will tell you time and time again that "betting irrationally" has a number of meanings.

I wish I was more articulate. Seattle Public Schools have sucked for 40 years. Example No. 1, right here, at your service.

All is well. You're quite an addition to the board already. Good to have you.

[ultracapper]

1 of a number of definitions for "betting irrationally":

I'm not as good a handicapper as I'd like to think, but I'm not sure because I don't really track anything, but I remember some really good bets when I've been up for the day, so I'll be damned if I'm going to blame my handicapping because I'm kind of proud of it, so therefore it's something else that's keeping me down.

Please do not take this personal VigorsTheGrey, because it is not meant to be personal in the least. It's a story line we hear on this board all the time, in the OTBs more often, and it's a continual hum at the track. I bet as simple as anybody on this board, so it's an excuse not afforded me. Tough to mess up a W/P, predetermined ratio bet. If I'm picking them, I'm winning. If I'm not, I'm not.

[NorCalGreg]

If I threw $18 into all my exacta plays, I'd net approximately $440 per day. That would be on an average of 24 races per day-- seven days per week. Some days go better than others, and others go bust. But at $18 a race it's still more than most people make at a regular job.

Interesting post, but I'm not sure what your meaning is? What I'm reading into your post:
--you have an exacta method--proven profitable--but you, as a working man with obligations--can't afford wagering on that lofty scale?


I MUST have misunderstood, pondman....you're obviously very intelligent, and would have immediately figured out the answer to your dilemma (if that IS your dilemma).

[ultracapper]

Vigs, I'm not trying to be harsh here, but after all this, you've kind of gotten off the rails. Thaskalos, and many others that have posted, are saying that you're kidding yourself. You're not picking near as many winners as you think. That paragraph that I took the snippet from, is the same old, same old. "I'm a great capper, but I don't....(bet right, don't show discipline, don't itch my ass correctly, you know, whatever). The point is,( and RAYBO beats this into the forum's head on a regular basis. You could set a clock by it.) you have to keep records, and they have to be inclusive, and honest. You can't ignore this bet or that bet, because I was goofing around, or I was playing a track with some friends to kill the time, or whatever. RECORD EVERY BET. Then comment on your win rate.

VigorsTheGray,

I had to look back at my initial post on the subject to help determine what would illicit a response like you made. The you I speak of in the bold type is the Royal You, not YOU personally. I had no intention to single you out as I'm not certain at all to what degree YOU may look for reasons outside your selection process when that selection process may very well be what needs to be examined. I would have been better served using the word "we", or "us handicappers" or something in that vein. When I said you throughout the thread, I wasn't referring to VTG, I was referring to a nameless, faceless, representative of us all.

I was thinking you got kind of defensive there, and my initial impression of you is nothing of the sort.

Damn Seattle Schools. Yea, it's their fault. Not like I haven't had 35 years since going there to read a couple books and maybe master this writing thing a little better.

[steveb]

Edges

The best edge one can have, IMO, is threefold:

Patience
Discipline
Consistency

The lack of any of these mental/emotional positive traits, in both handicapping and wagering, will override any positive angle or edge you may have, or may develop.

in the long ago, before computers i would have agreed with you.
but no longer.
i don't think the people that make all the money these days, make selections; i certainly never did.
so patience does not come into it.
expectation does.
and that is the only edge one needs, so long as you are better than the next bloke at allotting probability.

[ultracapper]

Rather than computers making Raybo's post obsolete, perhaps they've just made it "old school", and have created another avenue to the ultimate winner's circle. I believe the post he made is very valid in my world.

[VigorsTheGrey]

VigorsTheGray,

I had to look back at my initial post on the subject to help determine what would illicit a response like you made. The you I speak of in the bold type is the Royal You, not YOU personally. I had no intention to single you out as I'm not certain at all to what degree YOU may look for reasons outside your selection process when that selection process may very well be what needs to be examined. I would have been better served using the word "we", or "us handicappers" or something in that vein. When I said you throughout the thread, I wasn't referring to VTG, I was referring to a nameless, faceless, representative of us all.

I was thinking you got kind of defensive there, and my initial impression of you is nothing of the sort.

Damn Seattle Schools. Yea, it's their fault. Not like I haven't had 35 years since going there to read a couple books and maybe master this writing thing a little better.

Don't you mean the "Royal We?" Which I assume you have taken from Dude on The Big Liebowski....since this is the only place I have every heard this term used...AND a term that I personally find Delightful! The "Royal WE" ...might you be referring to what in English lessons is known as Third Person Omniscient: "Third person omniscient is a point of view where the narrator knows all the thoughts, actions, and feelings of all characters. The author may move from character to character to show how each one contributes to the plot.".....? I hope this doesn't devolve into the kind of banter that drove Nitro from the board..... ;)

[thaskalos]

The computer is an effective handicapper and bettor because it remains unemotional during the turbulence of the gambling process. But it isn't the COMPUTER'S money that is at stake when we gamble...so, I got a hunch that the OWNER of this computer is a little more emotionally charged than his computer is. We are not betting against the computers out there; we are betting against the computer OWNERS.

Whether we are using store-bought computers, or the computers between our ears...gambling results are prone to turbulent and chaotic swings...and "discipline" is always a necessary quality to possess. Some things NEVER change.

[thaskalos]

Edges

The best edge one can have, IMO, is threefold:

Patience
Discipline
Consistency

The lack of any of these mental/emotional positive traits, in both handicapping and wagering, will override any positive angle or edge you may have, or may develop.

The only correction I'd like to propose is that it is unnecessary, IMO, to state this in the threefold manner that you like to use. The lone word "Discipline" neatly covers everything. To be "disciplined" means that we are "patient and consistent", as well.

[ultracapper]

Don't you mean the "Royal We?" Which I assume you have taken from Dude on The Big Liebowski....since this is the only place I have every heard this term used...AND a term that I personally find Delightful! The "Royal WE" ...might you be referring to what in English lessons is known as Third Person Omniscient: "Third person omniscient is a point of view where the narrator knows all the thoughts, actions, and feelings of all characters. The author may move from character to character to show how each one contributes to the plot.".....? I hope this doesn't devolve into the kind of banter that drove Nitro from the board..... ;)

Yes, I applied the Dude's nomenclature to my needs. Third Person Omniscient. Yea, that's it. It makes total sense but I wouldn't have come up with that phraseology in a million years.

I hope there hasn't been anything said by me, and I can vouch that nothing has been said by you in regards to me, that would drive anybody away. Nothing I've posted in the past couple pages is anything the alert posters in this community haven't seen a thousand times in the past couple years.

[raybo]

Rather than computers making Raybo's post obsolete, perhaps they've just made it "old school", and have created another avenue to the ultimate winner's circle. I believe the post he made is very valid in my world.

Of course, if one has a completely computerized handicapping method for determining contenders and wagering selections, then the "PDC" traits I listed are not as difficult to implement. But, one must still exercise those traits, even with a completely computerized handicapping method, because the wagering portion is still to come. Those traits are as important, probably even more important, in the betting portion than in the handicapping portion, IMO, because wagering is where the "rubber meets the road", and lacking patience, discipline, and consistency in the wagering portion also, will end the same way, failure long term.

[raybo]

The only correction I'd like to propose is that it is unnecessary, IMO, to state this in the threefold manner that you like to use. The lone word "Discipline" neatly covers everything. To be "disciplined" means that we are "patient and consistent", as well.

I separate the 3 traits, because the meaning of "discipline" is better revealed to everyone. Also, one can fail due to lack of discipline, but without knowing which part of "discipline" is lacking, the road to the solution becomes longer and more difficult. It's kind of like keeping records that only list bets made and results. Yes, we might know that we are losing money, but we don't get the insight into why, unless we include tracks, surfaces, surface conditions, distances, classes, etc..

[steveb]

The computer is an effective handicapper and bettor because it remains unemotional during the turbulence of the gambling process. But it isn't the COMPUTER'S money that is at stake when we gamble...so, I got a hunch that the OWNER of this computer is a little more emotionally charged than his computer is. We are not betting against the computers out there; we are betting against the computer OWNERS.

Whether we are using store-bought computers, or the computers between our ears...gambling results are prone to turbulent and chaotic swings...and "discipline" is always a necessary quality to possess. Some things NEVER change.

the problem is that the people that make all the money these days, ALL use computers, but of course it is not the computer that makes it possible, it's the guys that write the code and model the various factors.
and they will nearly always be betting every day, into every pool.....where they perceive positive expectation.
thus patience does not come into it.
the discipline will be built into it, as they won't bet where the expectation is negative.
and nothing is more consistent that a well programmed computer.

[thaskalos]

the problem is that the people that make all the money these days, ALL use computers, but of course it is not the computer that makes it possible, it's the guys that write the code and model the various factors.
and they will nearly always be betting every day, into every pool.....where they perceive positive expectation.
thus patience does not come into it.
the discipline will be built into it, as they won't bet where the expectation is negative.
and nothing is more consistent that a well programmed computer.
Yes...but what do these people do in the midst of an electrical blackout?

[steveb]

Yes...but what do these people do in the midst of an electrical blackout?


serious question?

[VigorsTheGrey]

the problem is that the people that make all the money these days, ALL use computers, but of course it is not the computer that makes it possible, it's the guys that write the code and model the various factors.
and they will nearly always be betting every day, into every pool.....where they perceive positive expectation.
thus patience does not come into it.
the discipline will be built into it, as they won't bet where the expectation is negative.
and nothing is more consistent that a well programmed computer.

Now that's a real eye opener for me...and the modelling of the various factors part....maybe done privately with customized models ...i picture a partnership between player(s) and programmer(s) The NEW HORSEPLAYER IS MOST LIKELY A BINARD at least, if not a TRINARD or QUADNARD ENTITY...That's our competition....of course the single player can win anymore...all the margins are being gobbled up by these new brands of players...good grief!
Thaskalos is right, all the casual fans are now out on the sidelines licking their wounds....meanwhile it is all about the struggle between the sharks and the whales, wow, what a powerful metaphor...Thaskalos---you simply must write more on this subject! Vigors

[VigorsTheGrey]

Now that's a real eye opener for me...and the modelling of the various factors part....maybe done privately with customized models ...i picture a partnership between player(s) and programmer(s) The NEW HORSEPLAYER IS MOST LIKELY A BINARD at least, if not a TRINARD or QUADNARD ENTITY...That's our competition....of course the single player can win anymore...all the margins are being gobbled up by these new brands of players...good grief!
Thaskalos is right, all the casual fans are now out on the sidelines licking their wounds....meanwhile it is all about the struggle between the sharks and the whales, wow, what a powerful metaphor...Thaskalos---you simply must write more on this subject! Vigors

NEW HORSEPLAYER IS MOST LIKELY A BINARD at least, if not a TRINARD or QUADNARD ENTITY

[steveb]

NEW HORSEPLAYER IS MOST LIKELY A BINARD at least, if not a TRINARD or QUADNARD ENTITY

What is the English translation of that, may I ask?

[raybo]

What is the English translation of that, may I ask?

I get nothing when Googled, but I am assuming 2, 3, and 4 entities respectively.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I get nothing when Googled, but I am assuming 2, 3, and 4 entities respectively.

Binard, Trinard, and Quadnard are three terms I just invented last night...
I got the idea from Star Trek's episode featuring a race of aliens who did everything in teams...everything the Binars did was/ is a joint effort....So I think with the complexity of todays' racing/ simulcast environment...2 or 3 persons ought to team up and attack the problem of winning at racing together..you know combine their skills....a programmer and a good handicapper for example...they can also function as checks and balances on each other...

I'm sure this is not a new idea because racing syndicates have been around for a long time...they are part no doubt of what Thaskalos describes as a battle between the whales and the sharks dividing up the spoils of the parimutuel pools,, while the average fan and bettor is really on the sidelines licking his wounds....we all know how difficult it is to show a profit in the game....and I'm thinking it is just too complex and taxing to go at it alone all the time..besides it would be more fun if one could share in the victories and the defeats with another person... :) It can be quite lonely...

Vigors