You Bet Your Edges!

[VigorsTheGrey]

I often hear about "edges" in this game...

..What is the difference between an "edge" and an "angle."

How many edges do you know or use?

If you list your edges and angles down in this blog, I'll compile them for reference later on...

[VigorsTheGrey]

Ok I'll start it off...

1. Pace Top and Flop
2. Turf Marathon Turnbackers
3. On/ Off/ On/ Off Angle
4. Second Time Starters
5. Run Fresh, Then Regress
6. Third Start after Layoff

[Stillriledup]

Angle is handicapping while edge is found in the odds.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Can you explain a little more? Maybe some simplified examples...I kinda have an idea...Like instead of betting a horse at even money to win, I can wheel him on top with all, provided the minimum payout is greater than, in this case, twice the cost of the bet...The difference would then be the edge?

[Stillriledup]

Can you explain a little more? Maybe some simplified examples...I kinda have an idea...Like instead of betting a horse at even money to win, I can wheel him on top with all, provided the minimum payout is greater than, in this case, twice the cost of the bet...The difference would then be the edge?

I guess that's one way to look at it. Generally the edge to you is the difference between what the horse is paying vs what you think it should pay.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Ok I understand now: The horse pays 8-1; I think his fair value is 5-1. The difference is the edge, in this case a 3-1 edge.

Obviously if it was reversed and the horse was underlayed at 5-1, and I thought he should be 8-1, this would not be an edge.

Also, maybe his Morning Line is 3-1 and he goes off at 6-1. THAT would also be an edge, right?

[Stillriledup]

Ok I understand now: The horse pays 8-1; I think his fair value is 5-1. The difference is the edge, in this case a 3-1 edge.

Obviously if it was reversed and the horse was underlayed at 5-1, and I thought he should be 8-1, this would not be an edge.

Also, maybe his Morning Line is 3-1 and he goes off at 6-1. THAT would also be an edge, right?

It's only an edge if you think the 3-1 ML horse is properly priced at 3-1.

You're looking for "plus EV" wagers. You want to find long run winning bets that are "plus" over "break EVen"

[Milkshaker]

I believe "angle" and "edge" are often interchanged semantically--and that's OK.

There is no hard and fast definition of either.

In my mind though, an angle can be exactly what the OP stated:

1. Pace Top and Flop
2. Turf Marathon Turnbackers
3. On/ Off/ On/ Off Angle
4. Second Time Starters
5. Run Fresh, Then Regress
6. Third Start after Layoff

It only becomes an "edge" though, when you are sharp enough to make moey off of it.

IE "Your angle becomes your edge."

[VigorsTheGrey]

I believe "angle" and "edge" are often interchanged semantically--and that's OK.
There is no hard and fast definition of either.
It only becomes an "edge" though, when you are sharp enough to make moey off of it.

IE "Your angle becomes your edge."

Well said! I'll always remember that one, along with "Listen to your handicapping"

One improvement in my abilities lately is to really LOOK AT EACH HORSE'S previous race lines and to REALLY try to understand the significance of each individual effort. It is all too easy to pass over a horse whose running lines are somewhat plain.

OUR EDGES essentially BECOME OURS only when we understand that these edges were and are, FIRST, this peculiar HORSES' EDGES over HIS COMPETITION, that we are able to discover from the data that we have on him, ie, running lines, video replays, visual handicapping, connections, software, etc..

..So it is important not to go into the handicapping process with any preconceived ideas, but let the DATA and impressions we receive, speak for themselves. In effect, we have to ALLOW time and ALOT SPACE in our minds for these EDGES to develop as events taking place in real time prior to our decision to place a wager. This is what I think it means to "listen to our handicapping."

[thaskalos]

Can you explain a little more? Maybe some simplified examples...I kinda have an idea...Like instead of betting a horse at even money to win, I can wheel him on top with all, provided the minimum payout is greater than, in this case, twice the cost of the bet...The difference would then be the edge?

An "angle" is usually a particular, systematic method of play, even if this method is unprofitable...whereas an "edge" is the ADVANTAGE that the totality of our play holds over our competition. When a player says that he has an "edge" in a particular gambling game...it means that he considers himself to be a winning player in that game.

[castaway01]

Ok I'll start it off...

1. Pace Top and Flop
2. Turf Marathon Turnbackers
3. On/ Off/ On/ Off Angle
4. Second Time Starters
5. Run Fresh, Then Regress
6. Third Start after Layoff

Unless you have evidence on paper that you're making money with these (preferably broken down by track and trainer), then these are textbook examples of angles, not edges.

[biggestal99]

1. class drop, track change bet 10-1 or better, bomber angle
2. single race as 2 year old; bet down to 5-1 or less, loses layoff bet first start as 3 YO (5-1 or better)
3. 5 year old gelding with no wins as 4 year old bet first two starts as a 5 YO season at 10-1 or better
4. 2 year old second time dropping into MCL after running in MSW first out.(10-1 or better)

Allan

[Grits]

An "angle" is usually a particular, systematic method of play, even if this method is unprofitable...whereas an "edge" is the ADVANTAGE that the totality of our play holds over our competition. When a player says that he has an "edge" in a particular gambling game...it means that he considers himself to be a winning player in that game.

Thask, gave you a perfect definition, Vigors.

An angle is in use daily while an edge is more elusive. Andy Beyer had an edge when he created Beyer Speed Figures. There's a great difference between angles and edges, a good deal of which comes down to time invested. Many handicap a lifetime while never realizing a true edge.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Original Post:
1. Pace Top and Flop
2. Turf Marathon Turnbackers
3. On/ Off/ On/ Off Angle
4. Second Time Starters
5. Run Fresh, Then Regress
6. Third Start after Layoff

Biggestal99:
1. class drop, track change bet 10-1 or better, bomber angle
2. single race as 2 year old; bet down to 5-1 or less, loses layoff bet first start as 3 YO (5-1 or better)
3. 5 year old gelding with no wins as 4 year old bet first two starts as a 5 YO season at 10-1 or better
4. 2 year old second time dropping into MCL after running in MSW first out.(10-1 or better)

[VigorsTheGrey]

Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
An "angle" is usually a particular, systematic method of play, even if this method is unprofitable...whereas an "edge" is the ADVANTAGE that the totality of our play holds over our competition. When a player says that he has an "edge" in a particular gambling game...it means that he considers himself to be a winning player in that game.

Quote: Posted by milkshaker:
Unless you have evidence on paper that you're making money with these (preferably broken down by track and trainer), then these are textbook examples of angles, not edges.

Wow, it seems like these (2) words ADVANTAGE and EDGE lie in the core of our endeavor as handicappers. How appropriate that this website should be entitled PaceADVANTAGE and that BRIS's Newsletter should be called the Handicapper's EDGE.

Milkshaker's quote is also intriguing because it suggests that an ANGLE could in fact become an EDGE provided that it is making money...

...I see (2) fields of endeavor going on here:

The game of the horse's EDGE/ADVANTAGE(S) over its equine competition; and the horseplayer's EDGE/ ADVANTAGE over the human competition, through the wagering process. BOTH, no doubt, involve TOTALITIES. We are engaged in the weighing of these totalities against one another AND in their respective arenas, all at the same time. The complexities of these arrangements in the course of an afternoons' dose of simulcast play is astonishing!

The key question of, How a person wraps his mind and instincts around all this complexity, organizing and angling and ACTING ON THE EDGES of these totalities lies at the heart of our interest and engagement as horseplayers.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Thask, gave you a perfect definition, Vigors.

An angle is in use daily while an edge is more elusive. Andy Beyer had an edge when he created Beyer Speed Figures. There's a great difference between angles and edges, a good deal of which comes down to time invested. Many handicap a lifetime while never realizing a true edge.

The topic of angles and edges IMO is a ripe for discussion. I believe what you say to be true about Andy having an edge when he created his Beyer Speed Figures. What we have here is the genesis of an edge. What was it about Andy's Figures that makes them an edge precisely? I do not know the answer to that question but I am sure somebody does...

Let me ask a strange question...In the case of doping or race fixing, are these considered angles or edges? Perhaps, but REALLY UNFAIR ONES or unfair at least to the unknowing outsiders. No, doping and race fixing are not really advantages (edges) or angles, per say...So what is it about Andy's method and the doping method that cause them to be different things?

[raybo]

One can have a hundred "angles" but if they do not show a positive ROI in the long term, then he has no "edge" at all. "Edge" means you have an advantage over the game of making profit, versus losing money or breaking even, long term. One can have a "short term" edge, or an edge in certain races, but those are "conditional edges", and they might not allow the player to make profit long term.

[whodoyoulike]

... What was it about Andy's Figures that makes them an edge precisely? I do not know the answer to that question but I am sure somebody does...

If I remember correctly SPEED handicapping was done differently than his new methodology. He added personal tweaks which he described. It seemed to identify "live" horses with the ability to do well in the upcoming race. Problem became everyone noticed.

[AndyC]

I get edgy when my angles aren't winning. :D

[VigorsTheGrey]

One can have a hundred "angles" but if they do not show a positive ROI in the long term, then he has no "edge" at all. "Edge" means you have an advantage over the game of making profit, versus losing money or breaking even, long term. One can have a "short term" edge, or an edge in certain races, but those are "conditional edges", and they might not allow the player to make profit long term.

You are right. I think I am going to perform a tack here and sail off in another direction. My reasoning? Even if I compile a list of angles, and from what I gather there could be many many dozens of these, then what do I do with this list? I'm sure nearly every horse would show at least 1 angle if not more...but I am going to alter my betting habits and rationalize them because I am all across the board with my betting and it isn't working....Thank you for your consideration...I learn so much from everyone on this website!