LET'S BE HONEST?

[daylami]

how many people are willing to admit no matter what method or software they use that they have lost money over the last year betting the races?

maybe we could take a poll to avoid the embarrashment?

[chickenhead]

I am a loser :mad:

[acorn54]

acorn here (guy)
i have lost money using software (negative 5% r.o.i.), that i am using. just got into software in december.
i'm not discouraged.
i don't know how many members of this board are familiar with stock investing but research has shown that while learning the ropes of stock investing professional traders lose around 10,000-100,000 dollars before they start making a steady profit. i think that's something we all have to keep in mind. that at the outset you can't realistically expect to make a nice steady profit.
guy (acorn)

[andicap]

I tell the IRS I lose money every year.

[OTM Al]

I don't go by OTM Al for no reason :)

[RXB]

Count me in, although I'm almost at the break-even point.

[JackS]

Total profits from racing in most cases, is much less than most people imagine especially if you consider yourself successful. Barring any windfalls such as Pick6's Tri-supers etc., most of us eck out a nice profit when considered over an extended period of time. As a small bettor on a fixed income, my total budget per day at the track is $100 or in my case, $200 per weekend. This relatively small amount of money does not allow for any straight bets nor does it allow for any of the super exotics. My bets are generally DD's ,Exatas, Pick 3 and an occasinal Pick 4. If someone asks if I make a profit from racing and I answer yes, they will usually also ask "then why not increase your bet size?". This is not possible due to the fact that I have many losing weekends. Two complete losing weekends in which $400 is lost puts me in a situation that $100 per day wagers are no longer possible for the remainder of the month. Profits for me are generally spent on things I want that I would not be able to afford if it wasn't for racing. My bank account is relativley the same as it was a year ago at this time. Anyone losing should endevor to keep close tabs on their betting habits and learn not to chase losing bets with larger bets. Keep every wager or wagering day the same, regardless of money won or lost.

[JimG]

Daylami,

If you used the search function, you would find that I did a poll about 2 years ago asking how many here were winners, losers, or broke about even over the last year.

The vast majority here claimed to be winners. At the OTB I used to go to, the majority claimed to be winners as well.

Jim

[Whitehos]

I ONLY BET ON WINNERS

[fmhealth]

Very good question. I've been a 'capper since I was 13. That's a long 45 years ago. Never had a winning year. Down about $250,000.

Crazy as it sounds, it's the best $250,000 I've ever spent. The trips my wife & I take every year to CRC, GP, BEL & Delmar are wonderful!! Vegas 3-4 times every year.

I lost ALOT more with the dot-bombs!! I spend 3-4 days a week at AP. Now that I'm semi-retired (work 1 hour/week). I have plenty of time for 'capping. Trade stocks in the AM, 'capping in the PM. Closest I'll ever get to heaven.

The friends I've made at tracks literally around the world are still with me to this day. The "Runyunesque" people I've encountered could be found nowhere else but a track. The subculture of individuals that don't quite fit into the "norm" of society yet add to the texture and enjoyment of everyday are truly amazing. We all have a story, many of them astonishingly interesting. You'll never be bored if you like the horses.

Long & circuitious answer to a direct question. Moderation is the key. Not getting too carried away on the up or downside. Cultivating unique friendships & simply enjoying the experience for what it is.

[BeatTheChalk]

I broke even last year
and boy did I need it ...

[Holy Bull]

I haven't won in a few years but I've collected a lot of rebates.

[Suff]

I figure I played close to 500 HOURS last year. Probaly closer to 550. 8 hours a weekend and 3 during the week on average. Thats actuall Time sitting at my PC,,,
I lost $1850.00. Documented

[bettheoverlay]

In 30+ years of capping there are only 3 I'm sure I came out ahead. Racing results are so random its hard for me to believe a computer, or even a smart person, can figure it all out for any appreciable length of time.

[Thomason]

I made $250 last year (and reported it to the IRS, thankyouverymuch) and I'm down about that much this year. I lost the seventh and eighth races today at HOL by a neck (5 to 1) and a nose (7 to 1) respectively, otherwise, I would be profitable this year. I've only been doing this seriously for three years and I'm pleased with my progress. Long-term, this will be my retirement job. Damn, I can hardly wait!

[sq764]

I don't keep records.. I can say these things:

1) I don't believe I profited last year

2) I never once played money that I didn't have set aside for horses

3) I had fun the whole time doing it


As long as #2 and #3 stay that way, I will be a 'lifer'..

[Zaf]

Lost Money last year :(

This year about even so far :cool:

ZAFONIC

[Blackgold]

I netted $14,220.05 after having taxes witheld of $3,773.

I plan to file a Schedule C (filed an extension) and claim as deductions my cost of software and daily downloads.

Almost 6 months into this year, I'm on track to to slightly exceed last year's earnings.

The key is picking spots carefully after looking at a lot of races.

Did very little serial wagers, except P6's, which were losers.

[timtam]

I started out using the Wall Street Betting Plan which came thru the old Kel-Co racing calculator. The advertisement claimed in the first quarter of the year (late 80's) using only the consensus choice he was up close to $4,000. Well if he could do it so could I(this is long before this board) and low and behold I maybe lost a quarter of that. I was on my way ..... down the old slippery slope. I wouldn't trade it for the world. I love the people I meet at the Off track ( I go every Monday&Tues I know not very good racing days) and occassionally play using Brisnet. Sometimes I wish I knew what I had invested in time , material, and losing wagers but then again ......

[racko]

Cheap entertainment.
Over the past 5 yrs I average about a $1100 loss per year, play a couple of races everyday and definitely on the weekends. My best year I lost $144, documented. Just cannot seem to get in the black though. Most people I know say they are winners but based on observation I dont see how. Or should I say if they are winners I should get out of the game

[Valuist]

First off, it can be beaten and for a living. I can make a profit but I can't make my living at it. Since 1989 I've been profitable in all but 3 years (92,96 and 2000) but I did have 2 years where the profits were negligible ($1500 or less). I had the opportunity to learn from a full-time player, and I've seen him do it. No, he doesn't walk into the OTB, buy a simulcast program and start his handicapping 30 minutes before the first race. He makes his own figures, adjusts them for the trip (bias, pace and path width) but does not adjust for weight or wind. He did enlighten me to quite a few angles that have been profitable: how to PROPERLY do key races, importance of bias in sprints relative to routes, importance of pace in routes compared to sprints, numerous trainer angles, how to spot potential stiffs and buzzer jobs, and rider tendencies. And it didn't hurt that he knew a few trainers and owners, and he'd have pretty reliable info on first time starters and layoff horses. I also learned from him that if you aren't detailed about your work, you will pay the price. Another thing, the full timers all had something else in common: they never got too high when they won or too depressed when they lost. And yes, even the pros get their asses kicked every now and then. But if it was easy, there would be a lot more people doing it for a living.

[DeoVolente]

I'm up $634. However I only bet 103 races and handicap the NYRA races only. If I bet like a normal person I'll lose

[comet]

I have been playing the ponies since I was 7, and my dad and I would go to the track almost every weekend. At that time, I would have my hot streaks, but I would end up giving it all back
eventually.

I would say that for the first 20+ years playing the ponies, I would be in the red each year. Why, because I would play too many races.

I became a much more selective player in my 30's, didn't play as many races and did much better that what I did previously, but I didn't make that much money.
When I was 35, I noticed at the Track (Belmont) that someone was using small Sheets with numbers on them and I inquired what they were. He was nice enough to explain what they were and how to use them in addition to the information given out in the DRF.
I tried them out soon after, but wasn't happy about the additional expense. I would have to say that my first few months with these sheets did not net me any additional money. But I persevered and purchased the seminar tapes and tried to improve on my pattern reading. I would look at them after the races were over to see what I missed.
Now, 33 years after I started playing the ponies, I am sure that I come out ahead each year, by the amount of withdrawal slips that I have from my OTB account. There are a few deposit slips as well, but not many.

I play only the spots where I believe I have an edge. There can be months where I only place 1 or 2 bets per month. I have learned through experience, that you have to be very selective when you bet the ponies and even then, there is so much randomness in racing that the best horse may not win at any given time. Look at Mr. O'Brien in the Manhattan Hcp at Belmont on 6/5. He was a big win play of mine and he ran a tough trip third that day. I am happy to say that Offlee Wild got me that $$ back.

[JohnGalt1]

In my opinion--

Just like the people who play scratch off lottery tickets who say they are "about even" and the horse players who "think they are ahead" believe that because they bet small amounts they don't miss and they don't keep records.

I keep records. Last year I lost. This year I'm behind but I've won almost as much playing backjack.

I've been fortunate enough to have had some nice winning years.

I seek more consistancy.

[raybo]

At the risk of sounding pompous, I do make a living with horse racing. So far this year after all my expenses and after paying all my other monthly bills I'm up over $4000, not counting the money in my wagering accounts for BrisBet and Pinnacle. Not getting rich yet but it's better than any regular job I've ever had. Took me 25 years of study and endless hours in Excel to get to this point. It is a job like any other job. Just a little bit more fun and challenging.

[linrom1]

Since horseracing is also a form of entertainment, it's impossible to answer this question. The pure monetary entertainment aspect of horseracing is probably grossly understated and unless one is trying to make a living solely from wagering how do you account for it.

[linrom1]

Yet another point, you have to play to win in order to make money in horseracing. I, like most others do not, since we don't bet enough to make a profit by churning, and can’t deal with long losing streaks associated with playing P4s and P6s that could put one way ahead into black for years

[penguinfan]

I'm getting my fvcking head kicked in.

[Blackgold]

Hey Raybo. . .are you using Excel to keep betting records or crunch the numbers or both?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by penguinfan
I'm getting my fvcking head kicked in.

We get it. Changing the u to a v doesn't really help. Cool out.

[penguinfan]

Sorry, didn't think it was a big deal.

[lefthandlow]

Gee for the last 40 years everytime my wife asked me how I did

I said ya I broke about EVEN for the day.I'm glad little white

lies don't send you to HELL or else I'd break out of the gate

and set a track record there..I'm stuck 300,000 LL

[thelyingthief]

i have never had a losing year, and only two losing meets.

[Niko]

Eaked? out a profit of a little over $1,000 last year, a little ahead this year and trying to hang on.
Did very poorly 3 years ago wiping out 2 years of small profits while going through a lot of personal stuff in my life (none bad, unless you consider marriage a bad thing) Won the 2 years before that and didn't really keep records previous to that point.
All told I don't even know if I'm making a penny an hour?

[trying2win]

Originally posted by thelyingthief
i have never had a losing year, and only two losing meets.

TLT,

C'mon tell the truth! Re-read the title of this thread. Sorry I don't believe your story. All I have to do is look at your middle part of your pen name, and that tells me all I need to know.

In addition, hopefully you're kidding about the last part of your pen name. If not, you'll likely go from having a pen name, to having to use your real name in the "pen".

The small percentage of long-term profitable horse players, will likely admit that they had to go through many years of losing, before they learned enough to show a profit year-after-year. If you'll admit to also having many losing years before you reached a long-term profit, then I'll believe your story.

If your pen name and story here are all meant to be tongue-in-cheek, then please accept my apology.

T2W

[thelyingthief]

i could give you the numbers, but what difference would it make? and i suppose my name might carry some subconscious and confessional residues, but it's hard to speak to that; mostly i adopted the moniker to irritate system sellers, track gurus, and the many various miniature tyrants that frequent (and run) bb's like these. you know, those who do not believe a thing if it does not somehow elevate their own questionable level of self esteem? and which usually takes the form of denying their own deficiencies by questioning the proficiency of others? in general, horseplayers, to reiterate a maxim of pittsburg phil's, deem talent the least necessary of the wagering virtues--and i am glad they do. it is a fact of the human multitude, that any attribute that distinguishes someone or another from his fellows is an insult to the general sense of rightness, so they toss mozarts in common graves and spend thousands of years in utter cognitive darkness rather than let a kepler or copernicus lift up his head--and that's their prerogative, of course, since in the guise of the horseplayer, they swell the mutuel pools with their denials and disbeliefs. i say god bless the fools of this world! they pays their money and they takes their choice, that's what i say. so if small men wish to believe all men equal; if they shout and holler about shortyjones (sic), as if the popular voice could force its wishes into being, if they deny that he is slow by generating numbers that say that he is fast; if they lack the acumen, and purchase computer programs to have it for them; or if, should someone else possess abilities or innate qualities or any kind of intellectual sharpness above or beyond their ordinary own, they seek to stifle it, i say amen. and you, bud, you're such a person, i would say that it's now quite given you belong to the very ordinary cast--and my best recommendation to you is, stop TRYING to win. you're a very small fish in a very big pond, my friend, you're giving your money away. I spent 2 and 1/2 years dissecting the game before ever placing a bet; and i have never looked back. your problem may well be, you learned to lose before you learned to win, and that's why you continue TRYING to do something that i DO.

[cj]

thief,

Please use the 'Enter' button to make some paragraphs. Just trying to help, that is very hard to read.

[trying2win]

TLT,

Very interesting response. If you had mentioned that you studied the horse racing game for 2 1/2 years before you made a bet, that would have made your declaration that you've never had a losing year more believable. That would take a lot of hard work, dedication, self-discipline, persistence and perseverance. Those attributes are necessary in gaining the knowledge on how to become a successful, long-term winning horse player.

I'm still a little skeptical though, that even after all that studying that you would be immediately successful at playing the horse races. As we all find out, paper bets always work out better than bets made with real money. After many more failures, then making corrections along the way, yes then I'd believe a person could become a long-term winning horse player.

Judging by the choice of words in your last post, you're obviously a learned person. Now, to refine that knowledge so readers can better understand what you're trying to convey, may I suggest you brush-up on some grammar lessons such as can be found at this link(especially in the areas of capitalization and paragraph structure):

http://webster.commnet.edu/grammar/

Then it would be easier to read your posts.

Congratulations, if indeed you are telling the truth about being a long-term winning horse player. You have paid your dues. Best wishes for many more winning years at the great game of thoroughbred horse racing.


Regards,

T2W

[PaceAdvantage]

Come one fellas. This guy is a winning player (a rare breed indeed!), and all you guys can do is bust his balls over some grammar?? Jeez.....


;)

[cj]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Come one fellas. This guy is a winning player (a rare breed indeed!), and all you guys can do is bust his balls over some grammar?? Jeez.....


;)

I thought I was nice, I didn't bust any balls as you say. I was about to, but I changed my mind and took the high road...this time :D.

[gene]

It seems to me that it is not right to call someone a liar with no other information about him then what he said..

congrats to thelyingthief
keep it up

[JackS]

I'm still waiting for TLT to share a bit of info and possibly give the rest of us a few tips. TLT could at the very least give us a hint on exactly where to start to get the necessary education that could possible transform a few of us into consistant winners also. Was it a book or several books? If so, I need a title or titles. If it was software, who's was it? If it's TLT's very own invented method, I'd suggest he write a book and become not only rich but also famous.

[Tom]

"....and the many various miniature tyrants that frequent (and run) bb's like these......

Are you refering to the guys who pay the bills and allow any old idiot to come here and bad-mouth them?
Just curious??????

CJ....You take the high road, and I'll take the low road, and I'll get falmmed long befreo you. lalalalala

[keenang]

:confused:
yes i lose. handicapping reminds me of golf. when i go to a junior golf tourney and see these small kids hit the ball so well., i say this game can't be this difficult if a young kid can do it. i can't understand how handicapping can be so hard with all the info we have available. but we all know it is.i may be like lefty i don't stick with any one thing long enough.
gene

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by JackS
I'm still waiting for TLT to share a bit of info and possibly give the rest of us a few tips. TLT could at the very least give us a hint on exactly where to start to get the necessary education that could possible transform a few of us into consistant winners also. Was it a book or several books? If so, I need a title or titles. If it was software, who's was it? If it's TLT's very own invented method, I'd suggest he write a book and become not only rich but also famous.

Handicapping books are filled with nonsense (My opinion is formed from reading discussions about them). I read one when I was 14 years old and never read another one.

Nobody who is killing the races would ever write a book. If you are "rich" from betting the races, nothing you could make off a book would even matter. Here's a line you'll never hear if the claim is true...."I've gotten rich by betting the races, now I want to be famous and tell everybody what I'm doing and how to do it". While all the authors of books might have some helpful thoughts, they are not the guys who can sit in a room and extract consistent riches from wagering on races.

I read a Lying Thief post that he had PA delete, and I will tell you that it had some great points in it while giving me the feeling that he truly understands the game, which I don't get very often.

[Blackgold]

There's this guy under the pen name of Ian Andersen that has written a couple of good books about blackjack, "Turning the Tables In Las Vegas" and "Burning the Tables in Las Vegas."

There are many different systems or methods to counting cards to gain an advantage at blackjack. And there are many variations in basic stragegy to employ in case the count is positive, negative or neutral.

There is much discussion on the blackjack message boards on the "best" system to count cards and the validity of memorizing numerous index plays to vary with the count.

Ian Andersen posted once that it's not so important which counting system one uses or whether one has numerous variations of play to squeeze out another tenth of a percent advantage. . . what's important is- when one has the advantage to make the right bet, it's the betting mistakes that cost you.

I believe my own personal play vastly improved when I spent as much if not more time deciding if I had a bet and then how to best turn the advantage into cash.

Many on this board use many different methods, software, intuiution, angles, etc., to come up with price potential. But I think the big difference between those that make some money and those that don't is in the betting.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Blackgold
I believe my own personal play vastly improved when I spent as much if not more time deciding if I had a bet and then how to best turn the advantage into cash.

Many on this board use many different methods, software, intuiution, angles, etc., to come up with price potential. But I think the big difference between those that make some money and those that don't is in the betting.

There is hope on this board!

I equate betting on the races to playing chess. While many know how the pieces move, the great players know how to make the pieces attack.

Do you think Kasparov or Fischer would just bet WPS? I think not.

[JackS]

Last week inside a thread, it was pointed out that the "rules have all been written." IMO to succeed, rules are going to have to be broken from time to time. Common knowledge is almost worthless. All info printed in the Form is public which we all know, loses in the long run. Horses with a great record in the slop offer no value in the slop. Horses with excellent turf records offer no value on the turf etc, etc, etc. Too much attention paid to common knowledge will lead nowhere. Still, we must read the books to get the foundation and from there include our own little "illegal" quirks to have any chance at long-term profits. Beyer SF's have been around a long time now so probably not much value in them either. Brohamers' pace ratings probably only a little better. If anyone is working with a set formula that is working this year, it probably won't be working two years from now.

I've come to the conclusion that a search for value among several horses with possibilities and adiquate odds and possible pay-outs that do not fairly represent their chances, is the Holy Grail if anyone truly wants to beat these things. A developed intuition is also a great plus.

[Buckeye]

Will thelyingthief throw us a few bones and perhaps a few examples before the fact? Thank you.

[Lance]

Buckeye,

Could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure thelyingthief is writing satire. Either way, he is extremely funny at times (see his long Secretariat-Smarty Jones post), and I think it's best to enjoy him for his humor. Myself, I refuse to take seriously ANY undocumented claims of handicapping success that I read on any racing message board. I consider 99% of them to be utter BS.

[Buckeye]

Lance,
I agree.
I like reading his posts very much.
Just don't think he can "produce"

[Buckeye]

Originally posted by Buckeye
Just don't think he can "produce"

Now I could be wrong . . .

But I seriously doubt it.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by JackS
Still, we must read the books to get the foundation and from there include our own little "illegal" quirks to have any chance at long-term profits.

It is very tough to build a skyscraper on a foundation of quicksand.

Originally posted by JackS
If anyone is working with a set formula that is working this year, it probably won't be working two years from now.

That is the main problem with everybody's thinking..........THERE IS NO SET FORMULA!

Madonna would be a great horseplayer. With all of the changes in the music industry over the last 20 years, she has adapted to them and innovated others to keep herself on top.

I play a completely different game than I did 10 years ago. Why? Because I adapted my game to suit the changes and the opportunities the game provided me with. If I would have just been complacent with my success then, I wouldn't be in the position I am in today.

[Buckeye]

I know there's no "formula" for success that will remain forever constant. That's why I keep changing.

InsideThePylons-MW:

You have something more you could say if you are willing, what do you see that I or others on this board should be looking at?

[ponyplayer]

I started playing in 1982. Taken to the track on a Friday by some friends. First day I won $500, all exacta money. Saturday I won about $350, again all exacta money. On Sunday which was the last day of the meet, I lost $1,500. But I was hooked. Since then I have probably read 25-30 books on handicapping. Over these 22 years, I have had 3 winning years, couple of Pic6’s put me in the black, but overall a loser.

As others have said, I’ve made many friends at the track, people I know I never would have met if I wasn’t a player. It has been fun, I don’t rely on winnings to support me, so, I enjoy the hell out of it, and I’ll be a player for life, I just love the game.

I met one character in 1985 which was one of my winning years, he was an old timer who had been playing since 1947. He had even owned a couple of horses at one time and was known as a "real" Horseplayer by everyone at the track. I asked the old-timer how long he had been playing and if he was ahead.

He replied, “I’ve been playing since 1947 and have probably lost over a Million dollars during that time. As long as you’re taking care of your family, fudge it, have fun.” This is 2004 and that old character is still around, I’ll probably be just like him at his age, but I don’t have the resources to lose a million…lol.

[raybo]

RE: Hey Raybo. . .are you using Excel to keep betting records or crunch the numbers or both?

I wrote my handicapping program in an Excel spreadsheet, actually several spreadsheets. It imports the Bris data after converting to Excel format, crunches the numbers, sorts the grades and prints out the results in a standard DRF style PP layout. I also, run some "what ifs" to check new ideas and formulas. Since I use Brisbet and Pinnacle I don't need to track my wagers other than to check to see which superfecta formats are producing the most ROI. Excel does that, too.

[raybo]

RE: Originally posted by JackS
If anyone is working with a set formula that is working this year, it probably won't be working two years from now.

The only thing that is "set", in my opinion, is the fact that you must continue to apply the same basic handicapping skills every time you play. It's always been that way, and it will probably always be that way in the future. Condition, class, speed and pace have to be analyzed in every race. Add track, surface, jockey/trainer, wagering strategies, value, etc., and you have a handle on it.

[trying2win]

Originally posted by JackS
Common knowledge is almost worthless. All info printed in the Form is public which we all know, loses in the long run. Horses with a great record in the slop offer no value in the slop. Horses with excellent turf records offer no value on the turf etc, etc, etc. Too much attention paid to common knowledge will lead nowhere. Still, we must read the books to get the foundation and from there include our own little "illegal" quirks to have any chance at long-term profits. Beyer SF's have been around a long time now so probably not much value in them either. Brohamers' pace ratings probably only a little better. If anyone is working with a set formula that is working this year, it probably won't be working two years from now.

I've come to the conclusion that a search for value among several horses with possibilities and adiquate odds and possible pay-outs that do not fairly represent their chances, is the Holy Grail if anyone truly wants to beat these things. A developed intuition is also a great plus.

Jack,

Great post! A lot of wise advice there. Don't quite know what you meant by "illegal" quirks. Perhaps you meant this...It helps if a bettor has some knowledge about handicapping, that the public is generally not aware of, and thus gives one an edge.

One other area that I look at slightly different is in your sentence that reads..."If anyone is working with a set formula that is working this year, it probably won't be working two years from now." From my outlook, I would change the sentence to "If anyone is working with a set formula that is working this year, it might not be working two years from now."

Nevertheless, thanks for the good reminders.

T2W

[Valuist]

Back when I started, I lost the first 5 years I played. Fortunately, I wasn't betting too much, and I could see progress each year. I used to think you had to lose for 4-5 years before you could make a profit but with simulcasting, now a player is exposed to so many different situations at a much quicker rate. Still, I think it would be very difficult for someone to beat the races in their first 2-3 years now. You need a certain amount of time to really develop the fundamentals. After that its a matter of keeping up to date on the circuit(s) you play.

I agree the betting aspect is ultimately the most important, but to be a good bettor, you have to be able to determine value. And how does one do that? By being a good handicapper. A good handicapper could be a bad bettor, but a good bettor cannot be a bad handicapper.

[alysheba88]

Ill take the good gambler over the good handicapper every day of the week

[JackS]

Intuitions better known as" hunches" should be given more respect especially by experienced handicappers. Hunches that apply to "odds on" favorites do not count. After all, These are the hunches of the general public which cash out their very small tickets on a regular basis. The experienced handicapper on the other hand, can come close to the percentage of the public, but at much better odds. I think one limiting factor for even very good handicappers is their bankroll. Regardless of how big it may be, too many are playing outside their comfort zone which leads to poor decisions and in many cases, ignoring the "hunch"

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Buckeye
InsideThePylons-MW:

You have something more you could say if you are willing, what do you see that I or others on this board should be looking at?

99% of players spend more time handicapping a race than figuring out how to bet (extract the maximum amount of money from) a race.

99% of players bet on horses, not races.

Don't follow the herd to slaughter.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Valuist
A good handicapper could be a bad bettor, but a good bettor cannot be a bad handicapper.

Couldn't be more wrong.

I know one guy who has a horrible opinion but knows how to bet aggressively to give himself a chance. Amazingly, when he happens to be right on a race, he overcomes the majority of the time when he is totally wrong.

Having a horrible opinion but knowing to throw favorites out to create value on your wager can go a long way.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by alysheba88
Ill take the good gambler over the good handicapper every day of the week

DING DING DING!

We have a winner!

It amazes me how many think otherwise.

;)

[Holy Bull]

If you have a horrible opinion you can't win no matter how good a bettor you are.
I have a horrible opinion on California racing and I lose any time I make the mistake of trying to play it. Elsewhere I can muster a mediocre opinion and thats usually enough to churn an earn out of it.

Also it should be noted that most people who think they are good handicappers are generally not.

[raybo]

RE: <Intuitions better known as" hunches" should be given more respect especially by experienced handicappers. Hunches that apply to "odds on" favorites do not count. After all, These are the hunches of the general public which cash out their very small tickets on a regular basis. The experienced handicapper on the other hand, can come close to the percentage of the public, but at much better odds. I think one limiting factor for even very good handicappers is their bankroll. Regardless of how big it may be, too many are playing outside their comfort zone which leads to poor decisions and in many cases, ignoring the "hunch".

Very smart statement. There are some things about horseracing that just cannot be expressed by numbers. The successful, experienced handicapper knows this and keeps in touch with his intuitive skills.

Money management and in this case, the ability to set aside "bankroll focusing", is an important separation between the successful "gambler/investor" and the unsuccessful "player/hobbiest". You simply cannot be thinking about how much cash you have available when considering a race. Your judgement will be negatively affected.

[freeneasy]

you say you know aman that makes horrible opinions but makes up for those choices with good gambling instincts. id say it sounds like hes using that same opinion that you consider horrible to handicap all his races to get to that one winning race. so whatever it is opinion he uses, it "amazingly" is good enough to get him the winner he needs to invest wisely enough to come out on top. how is it that you consider him a bad handicapper unless you are comparing his mode of handicapping to yours. i consider that good handicapping and good enough that i'd say he's found a successful mode of handicapping that when combined with intelligent gambeling brings about a successful endeavor to profit at the races. so my question to you pylons is how can you dissagree with valuest comment on success cannot exist without being both a handicapper and as well as an intelligent bettor. not to drag him into the middle of a disagreement but take glenny for instance you, that is you personally, would probably have to consider him the utmost of worst handicappers being that he is terribly wrong in his choices most all of the time when in fact he has found a very nice little handicapping nitch that merits him a profit for his efforts. so i must say oun contrair and that for the most part if anything you have more of a chance of coming out on top by being a good handicapper and a bad gambler then you do by being a bad handicapper and a good gambler. simply put if you have a system or way of handicpping that shows a flat bet profit and put 2 bucks on every play thaen quite assurdedly if you live long enough then you will see the day when youve topped a million bucks:D

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by freeneasy
you say you know aman that makes horrible opinions but makes up for those choices with good gambling instincts.

Yes, lifelong friend that through observation mimics the way I bet.

Originally posted by freeneasy
id say it sounds like hes using that same opinion that you consider horrible to handicap all his races to get to that one winning race. so whatever it is opinion he uses, it "amazingly" is good enough to get him the winner he needs to invest wisely enough to come out on top.

He only plays occassionally. He has one wagering play in his playbook. His opinion IS horrible. It does not amaze me in the least that he wins with it. I only used "amazingly" for Valuist's sake.

Originally posted by freeneasy
how is it that you consider him a bad handicapper unless you are comparing his mode of handicapping to yours. i consider that good handicapping and good enough that i'd say he's found a successful mode of handicapping that when combined with intelligent gambeling brings about a successful endeavor to profit at the races.

His handicapping ability is one-hundreth of 1% of mine. He barely knows how to read a form/program. He probably looks for less than a minute on the races he bets. He bets one track, uses a wagering trick/method I showed him a few years ago on a specific race and circumstance. I could write the entire wager method in 15 words and teach a monkey to be able to find it.

Originally posted by freeneasy
so my question to you pylons is how can you dissagree with valuest comment on success cannot exist without being both a handicapper and as well as an intelligent bettor.

Valuist did not say that. He said a good handicapper could be a bad bettor, but a good bettor could not be a bad handicapper. I know many good handicappers that lose over the long run because of their inability to wager properly. So, I disagree with both parts of his statement.

Originally posted by freeneasy
not to drag him into the middle of a disagreement but take glenny for instance you, that is you personally, would probably have to consider him the utmost of worst handicappers being that he is terribly wrong in his choices most all of the time when in fact he has found a very nice little handicapping nitch that merits him a profit for his efforts. so i must say oun contrair and that for the most part if anything you have more of a chance of coming out on top by being a good handicapper and a bad gambler then you do by being a bad handicapper and a good gambler.

Glenny's example is complex. He makes very few bets ( I sometimes bet as many races in a week as he bets in a year) and is still questioning whether his results will be as good this year as last. I never consider anybody that loses a lot of races a bad handicapper. If I did that, I would consider myself a total failure.

Originally posted by freeneasy
simply put if you have a system or way of handicpping that shows a flat bet profit and put 2 bucks on every play thaen quite assurdedly if you live long enough then you will see the day when youve topped a million bucks:D

No great gambler worries too much about flat bet profit as flat bets should comprise of no more than 15%-20% of his total play.

[Buckeye]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Having a horrible opinion but knowing to throw favorites out to create value on your wager can go a long way.

Most people lose money playing the horses, and favorites have the most money bet on them. Refusing to "go along" and agree with most people, I am looking to have different and profitable results. What am I getting into if a throw out the favorite as a strategy when favorites win so many races? How does this relate to handicapping the race vs. handicapping the horses? Does this mean looking for types of races where favorites are more vulnerable than usual? If this is true, isn't that also a form of handicapping in itself? Are you handicapping the psychology of the average player to gain an edge over them?

[alysheba88]

Originally posted by Holy Bull
If you have a horrible opinion you can't win no matter how good a bettor you are.
I have a horrible opinion on California racing and I lose any time I make the mistake of trying to play it. Elsewhere I can muster a mediocre opinion and thats usually enough to churn an earn out of it.

Also it should be noted that most people who think they are good handicappers are generally not.

Very very true about how many overrate their own handicapping ability.

Thought I was the only one who has bad opinions about California racing. Make less then 10 plays a year on it and its still too many. Play that Delmar contest for fun thats about it.

I guess I could argue that the good gambler (which I dont proclaim to be) would know to avoid those tracks he/she does poorly at.

[sjk]

InsideThePylons,

I have been going along betting my simple exactas, getting a lot of action and achieving an ROI which I felt pretty good about.

Maybe I'm leaving a lot of money on the table. I am curious as to the level of ROI (net winnings/amount bet) available to those who extract maximum value.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Buckeye
Most people lose money playing the horses, and favorites have the most money bet on them. Refusing to "go along" and agree with most people, I am looking to have different and profitable results. What am I getting into if a throw out the favorite as a strategy when favorites win so many races? How does this relate to handicapping the race vs. handicapping the horses? Does this mean looking for types of races where favorites are more vulnerable than usual? If this is true, isn't that also a form of handicapping in itself? Are you handicapping the psychology of the average player to gain an edge over them?

Let's say there is a 10 horse field with a 3-5 shot that you think is a cinch winner. Now if I tell you he didn't win, do you still think he is as big of a cinch to finish second? I don't think so. If I tell you he didn't finish second, do you still think he is as big of a cinch to be third? I don't think so. Well in the exotic pools, for the most part, the payoffs usually equate to his win price proportionately.

Most players that find a vulnerable favorite(s) usually try to find "a horse" to bet on against the favorite(s). Then in exotics they usually pick another 2 to use underneath (sometimes using the favorite(s)) and bet a couple of Ex's or Tri's. Now, they need 18 different things to happen right in the race to cash when the great bettors will play the race as to minimize the things that need to happen right to extract money if they are right about the vulernable favorite(s). The bad bettors can be right about 10 bad favorites in a row and still lose all those races. Let me be right about 10 bad favorites in a row and I might lose a couple of bets, but I will destroy a few of those races.

[Buckeye]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
99% of players spend more time handicapping a race than figuring out how to bet (extract the maximum amount of money from) a race.
I know you're right even though I'm in with the 99%. What can I do to get away from them? :)

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by sjk
InsideThePylons,

I have been going along betting my simple exactas, getting a lot of action and achieving an ROI which I felt pretty good about.

Maybe I'm leaving a lot of money on the table. I am curious as to the level of ROI (net winnings/amount bet) available to those who extract maximum value.

sjk,

If you have a good opinion and you are only betting exactas, then yes, you are leaving money on the table.

Some people favor ROI, I favor profit. With the opportunities available today, it is all about quantity. For the most part, a players ROI will significantly go down the more money he bets.

A ROI player would love to have a .20 ROI on 50K in wagers.

A profit player would rather have a .05 ROI on 500K in wagers.

Now factor in a option that is available to everybody now, the Pinnacle 7% rebate, and I think you get the idea.

As I have stated before, I deliberately unsharpened my opinions over the last 4 years to take advantage of increasing my profits.

[sjk]

InsideThePylons,

Thanks for the reply. Even at the smaller tracks I play, I could certainly increase the size of my bets without having a significant impact on my ROI. I am used to betting at a certain level; my bet size has increased over the years, but hasn't much more than doubled.

I guess it is personal psychology. I sometimes think I do not have a gambler's mentality even though I bet 7000 races a year.

[raybo]

RE:<Are you handicapping the psychology of the average player to gain an edge over them?

YES !!!

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Buckeye
I know you're right even though I'm in with the 99%. What can I do to get away from them? :)

Very tough question.

When looking at races, instead of handicapping for horses, ask yourself the question.......what are reasonable possibilities that can happen in this race where I can extract money from it?

To get a feel for this, look at races that were just run and ask yourself, how could I have gotten to this trifecta? Some players over time will develop a feel for developing wagering strategies to extract money from situations which you think you might have a good opinion on. There are obviously 100's of angles/situations which you will explore and encounter. It never hurts to start with......."can I throw out this favorite".

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
sjk,


Some people favor ROI, I favor profit. With the opportunities available today, it is all about quantity. For the most part, a players ROI will significantly go down the more money he bets.

A ROI player would love to have a .20 ROI on 50K in wagers.

A profit player would rather have a .05 ROI on 500K in wagers.



Inside, the proper term for what you are talking about is Profit on Turnover or P.O.T.. Quite simply your ROI multiplied by the amount you bet for a period, usually a year.

You are quite correct in that P.O.T. is all that matters but this is not contary to ROI as ROI is a part of P.O.T. as is bet size and frequency.

Have a nice evening.

JM

[Buckeye]

You're beating me up pretty good then!

So if I like the favorite(s), stay out of the race, don't just play the race hoping the favorite(s) will lose, correct?

Now considering the wager types being offered, construct a wager or group of wagers that compliment one another (and I love this word) "extract" the maximum amount of money from the race. Isn't there also risk management going on, as I'm not placing all my money on the highest odds return? Very interesting thought process.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Buckeye
So if I like the favorite(s), stay out of the race, don't just play the race hoping the favorite(s) will lose, correct?


Not necessarily. I use favorites all the time.......There are favorites which offer value. I usually only use favorites when the other horses incorporated into my play offer extreme value. The only reason I use the "can I beat this favorite?" question as a starting point is because if I can answer yes to that question, the race is almost automatically playable for me in a big way.

Originally posted by Buckeye
Now considering the wager types being offered, construct a wager or group of wagers that compliment one another (and I love this word) "extract" the maximum amount of money from the race. Isn't there also risk management going on, as I'm not placing all my money on the highest odds return? Very interesting thought process.

Good analysis. You are getting it.

[Richard]

At present I'm up $14.00 this year.Doin' better than last year.

[KingChas]

I follow racing daily.I am middle class if such a beast still exists.I get my bets in avg. once a week.I'm not going to comment on how I'm doing I'm alright(didn't bet the mortgage payments).I have to laugh at all the so called pros.I go to OTB most of the time.But when I go to the track avg. once a month(Phila,Monmouth).There are usually ten races.The pros say don't bet every race.OK once a month at the live racing I will drive 50 miles to bet 2 races(yea right).These are the same guys when there's a 5 horse field they must find a horse to beat a 9/5-because this is gambling(ala Steven Crist at the DRF) .I like action and have caught many $5 exactas that paid well with the 9/5 on top.When there is a Heavy Fav(1/5 etc.) I might not bet the race but will throw in longshots with a pick3/4 etc.If I had the per capita such as the big boys I would have been rich just by hedging my bets($500 a race over/under /exactas etc.)With the magic ALL BUTTON.Such is Life.

PS:Good wife,child,job,family,happy(bills are paid)=PRICELESS.

[JackS]

I also will play favorites when they appear legitimate. If my feeling is that a horse won't be beat barring some unforseen disaster or a dramatic form reversal, for me it's a play. My self imposed betting line on a horse like this is 1-1. This allows me to be wrong half the time (which I probably am), and still play into some of the better paying exactas using this horse. If the field is short, I will pass on the exoctics and use the horse in a first leg Pick 3. - This turns the next two races into a slightly glorified DD and often not that difficult to hit. I don't think you should find more than one or two of these types on any given day though.

[Blackgold]

I won't play an even money shot with someone else's money.

It's just too hard to make money. You got to beat the track take and if you can pick a high enough percentage of winners, then you got to beat the IRS take too. It's a mountain of takeout that makes even money shots Mt. Everest, if you are looking to profit.

But I will hook up an even money shot with high priced runners in the exotics, if the high priced runners have a legitimate shot.

[thelyingthief]

the racebooks in NV have an interesting way of factoring the quinella--they multiply the winners payoff by one-half the place horse payoff. in short fields of very high quality races where two horses essentially command the rest, this invariably pays substantially more than the quinella or exacta box option offered at the track. sometimes the second horse wins, and you have a bonanza. however, it's a great way to make money on blatant favorites.

try it, you'll like it, to quote Mitchell.

[JackS]

TLT- I have and really like it. I'ts called the House Quenella" and can often pay more than the on track exacta. The only drawback is that this a casino booked bet thus limitations on how much you will be allowed to bet. For the average patron the limit would be meaningless.

[raybo]

By JackS
RE: <I also will play favorites when they appear legitimate. If my feeling is that a horse won't be beat barring some unforseen disaster or a dramatic form reversal, for me it's a play. My self imposed betting line on a horse like this is 1-1. This allows me to be wrong half the time (which I probably am), and still play into some of the better paying exactas using this horse. If the field is short, I will pass on the exoctics and use the horse in a first leg Pick 3. - This turns the next two races into a slightly glorified DD and often not that difficult to hit. I don't think you should find more than one or two of these types on any given day though.>

I agree that favorites cannot be ignored or passed automatically, they win too many races for that kind of treatment. Playing a legitimate post time favorite, who grades #1, in an exotic where there is some value on the other rows can result in decent payouts sometimes. You must be careful to make sure that the 2nd favorite is not likely to run 2nd also. This will almost surely kill any exotic, including the superfecta. Playing the post time favorite to win, only, is for the public, if I were a win bettor I certainly wouldn't be making that play.

[sjk]

I don't have any problem with betting a favorite if I am getting good value. I definitely bet lots of exactas with the favorite on top, once again when I like the value proposition.

That is a key difference between playing the visible pools vs the blind pools. You can often see that good value exists in the win or the exacta pool, while with the more exotic bets, it is a reasonable presumption that the favorite is overbet (or so I gather from the other posts; I rarely make these bets).

[raybo]

RE: <That is a key difference between playing the visible pools vs the blind pools. You can often see that good value exists in the win or the exacta pool, while with the more exotic bets, it is a reasonable presumption that the favorite is overbet>

Very good point, that's why the exacta pool is a place I visit when making a final decision concerning my placing a superfecta wager in some races. This pool shines a little light on what might be happening in the superfecta pool. I am usually concerned with the exacta probables only when I have the 1st 2 post time favorites on my ticket. I try to approximate what the minimum payout might be prior to placing the wager. If I can't get at least 10/1 on my investment, I will usually pass the race. A $350 payout for the $1 Superfecta is as low as I care to go. These small payouts are hit often enough to "pay the bills" so to speak and allow me to wait out the more lucrative hits.