The reason there are super trainers

[InsideTheRaces.com]

I don't post much but I just got done reading the Karl Broberg thread and thought I would reply to it but thought it was better to start a new thread.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=123516&page=15&pp=15

I'll try to keep it concise and to the point with a few comparisons to show/prove my point.

Most of you are handicappers and have never seen the backside of a track. Bottom line, 80% of horse trainers have no business being in business period.
I'm sure all of you have been to the track or a OTB and have watched horseplayers placing wagers with info from the track program or no program at all. I'm sure all of you have thought wow these are the clowns I'm betting against.
The backside of the track is no different from what you see at the windows of the track or OTB.
For the most part the trainers love the horses and love the game just like the idiot playing numbers in the OTB. They are there everyday doing what they do.

Super handicapper
Has better data, follows trainer and jockey stats, watches replays, is prepared before placing bets, and only bets when they think they have an advantage.
Handicapper
Shows up and maybe buys a track program, no plan, scrambles to place bets based on little or no information.

Lets say a trainer claims a horse here's what might happen

Super Trainer
Pulls the shoes off the horse and soaks feet for a hour or two each day.
Gets the horse's teeth done.
Chiropractic work done.
Gets new shoes for the horse after a couple weeks of no shoes
Legal medication to reduce swelling or pain.
*Proper hay and feed (very few trainers test their hay for nutritional value)
Proper exercise
Round pen time so the horse can really roll and stretch the muscles.

Trainer
Put them in the barn.
Put them on the barns regular schedule.
The regular schedule for most trainers is.
Feed the horse a diet that has not been tested for nutritional value.
Maybe get the horse out of the stall in the morning because you can't or don't want to pay for exercise riders.
I could go on but I won't

Bottom line if you go to the backside in the morning (6 am) you can see who runs a professional operation and who doesn't.

The other aspect of the super trainer is they have owners that don't care if the horse gets claimed. If the owner won't run where the super trainer wants it to run they have about 24 hrs to get their horse out of his barn.
The regular trainer just wants the day money and doesn't want to lose the horse. Reason being he makes money off the day money because he's skimping on care. The super trainer spends the day money on the horse and only makes money when the horse wins.

When you look at how the super trainer takes care of the horse and how they place the horses in races it's not very far fetched how they can improve horse and win more than a regular trainer.
Are some cheating? Maybe?

I could go on forever about the difference between a super trainer and a trainer.

It's like any business, 20% make 80% of the money.

I'm ready for the fallout bring it on!

[Stillriledup]

I don't post much but I just got done reading the Karl Broberg thread and thought I would reply to it but thought it was better to start a new thread.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=123516&page=15&pp=15

I'll try to keep it concise and to the point with a few comparisons to show/prove my point.

Most of you are handicappers and have never seen the backside of a track. Bottom line, 80% of horse trainers have no business being in business period.
I'm sure all of you have been to the track or a OTB and have watched horseplayers placing wagers with info from the track program or no program at all. I'm sure all of you have thought wow these are the clowns I'm betting against.
The backside of the track is no different from what you see at the windows of the track or OTB.
For the most part the trainers love the horses and love the game just like the idiot playing numbers in the OTB. They are there everyday doing what they do.

Super handicapper
Has better data, follows trainer and jockey stats, watches replays, is prepared before placing bets, and only bets when they think they have an advantage.
Handicapper
Shows up and maybe buys a track program, no plan, scrambles to place bets based on little or no information.

Lets say a trainer claims a horse here's what might happen

Super Trainer
Pulls the shoes off the horse and soaks feet for a hour or two each day.
Gets the horse's teeth done.
Chiropractic work done.
Gets new shoes for the horse after a couple weeks of no shoes
Legal medication to reduce swelling or pain.
*Proper hay and feed (very few trainers test their hay for nutritional value)
Proper exercise
Round pen time so the horse can really roll and stretch the muscles.

Trainer
Put them in the barn.
Put them on the barns regular schedule.
The regular schedule for most trainers is.
Feed the horse a diet that has not been tested for nutritional value.
Maybe get the horse out of the stall in the morning because you can't or don't want to pay for exercise riders.
I could go on but I won't

Bottom line if you go to the backside in the morning (6 am) you can see who runs a professional operation and who doesn't.

The other aspect of the super trainer is they have owners that don't care if the horse gets claimed. If the owner won't run where the super trainer wants it to run they have about 24 hrs to get their horse out of his barn.
The regular trainer just wants the day money and doesn't want to lose the horse. Reason being he makes money off the day money because he's skimping on care. The super trainer spends the day money on the horse and only makes money when the horse wins.

When you look at how the super trainer takes care of the horse and how they place the horses in races it's not very far fetched how they can improve horse and win more than a regular trainer.
Are some cheating? Maybe?

I could go on forever about the difference between a super trainer and a trainer.

It's like any business, 20% make 80% of the money.

I'm ready for the fallout bring it on!

I don't get the point, are you suggesting super trainers aren't cheats and are just working harder than everyone else? Since 95 pct or higher of all the trainers with licenses are NOT super trainers, are you saying that 95 pct of trainers aren't doing feet, teeth, etc so when a supertrainer gets hold of a horse he's (or she) is doing things 95 pct of the training population hasn't thought of?

[InsideTheRaces.com]

I don't get the point, are you suggesting super trainers aren't cheats and are just working harder than everyone else? Since 95 pct or higher of all the trainers with licenses are NOT super trainers, are you saying that 95 pct of trainers aren't doing feet, teeth, etc so when a supertrainer gets hold of a horse he's (or she) is doing things 95 pct of the training population hasn't thought of?

That's right super trainers are not cheats for the most part.

Stillriledup have you been to the backside from 5 am - 11 am to see what happens?

From all your postings I assume you play this game for a living, am I correct?

[Stillriledup]

That's right super trainers are not cheats for the most part.

Stillriledup have you been to the backside from 5 am - 11 am to see what happens?

From all your postings I assume you play this game for a living, am I correct?

I know what goes on in this game from the inside, lets just say that. I've heard a few roosters in my day :D As far as your other question, I'm going to take the 5th on that one.

So if super trainers are not cheats "for the most part" that means you think some are cheats, right? Ill ask this, how can I determine which super trainers are honest and which ones are not? Any clues I should look for?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by InsideTheRaces.com
From all your postings I assume you play this game for a living, am I correct?
As far as your other question, I'm going to take the 5th on that one.

You give us your opinions on everything under the sun, to the point of absurdity, but you can't admit that you don't play the horses for a living? Why don't you also add, that you don't bet sports, poker or gamble for a living?......No stones, SRU, No stones whatsoever.

[InsideTheRaces.com]

I know what goes on in this game from the inside, lets just say that. I've heard a few roosters in my day :D As far as your other question, I'm going to take the 5th on that one.

So if super trainers are not cheats "for the most part" that means you think some are cheats, right? Ill ask this, how can I determine which super trainers are honest and which ones are not? Any clues I should look for?

What about the guy at the OTB betting races from the OTB program.
The same kind of guy is in the barn on the backside training horses.
Lets put it this way. The losers on the backside are cheating more than the super trainers are and they're wondering why they're not winning.
Obviously you've never been to the backside. If you're a serious handicapper you need to go see for yourself. It's like the carnival/circus that comes to town for a few weeks or months. Have you ever done any circus work?

[Stillriledup]

You give us your opinions on everything under the sun, to the point of absurdity, but you can't admit that you don't play the horses for a living? Why don't you also add, that you don't bet sports, poker or gamble for a living?......No stones, SRU, No stones whatsoever.

I haven't gotten into much personal stuff here, ill keep it that way for now, Sorry RR. :D

[lamboguy]

today supertrainers control condition books all over the place. when you look at most race tracks that have 30 or more trainers that fill entries on a daily basis you will find that 7 or 8 trainers have over half of the horses that run on that track. within the last 10 years rules have been forced to change at most tracks in order to accommodate the horses that need to run. often times we now see races where the same trainer and owner's have multiple entries in the same race without them being coupled. this has only accomplished race tracks putting out a watered down product. it has also chased business away from the race track.

if it was up to me, i would only allow 40 trainer licenses that would be reviewed year to year.. if a trainer is unable to maintain a 10% winning rate he would not get a license for the next year. those trainers would not be allowed a roster of more than 25 horses and the owners not be allowed to own more than 2 horses. reshape the game this way and i am sure you will get rid of the supertrainers.

[Stillriledup]

What about the guy at the OTB betting races from the OTB program.
The same kind of guy is in the barn on the backside training horses.
Lets put it this way. The losers on the backside are cheating more than the super trainers are and they're wondering why they're not winning.
Obviously you've never been to the backside. If you're a serious handicapper you need to go see for yourself. It's like the carnival/circus that comes to town for a few weeks or months. Have you ever done any circus work?

:lol:

I've played a circus clown on occasion here at PA, but no, I've never done any serious circus stuff.

[InsideTheRaces.com]

today supertrainers control condition books all over the place. when you look at most race tracks that have 30 or more trainers that fill entries on a daily basis you will find that 7 or 8 trainers have over half of the horses that run on that track. within the last 10 years rules have been forced to change at most tracks in order to accommodate the horses that need to run. often times we now see races where the same trainer and owner's have multiple entries in the same race without them being coupled. this has only accomplished race tracks putting out a watered down product. it has also chased business away from the race track.

if it was up to me, i would only allow 40 trainer licenses that would be reviewed year to year.. if a trainer is unable to maintain a 10% winning rate he would not get a license for the next year. those trainers would not be allowed a roster of more than 25 horses and the owners not be allowed to own more than 2 horses. reshape the game this way and i am sure you will get rid of the supertrainers.

A 10% win rate is not hard to achieve.
I claimed my first horse in 2004. I knew nothing about caring for race horses. I jumped right in over my head and fired my trainer after a month and claimed a couple more from super trainers over the 3 months. I rented a farm trained them myself with the help of a exercise rider. I entered the horses under a 1% program trainers name. After a year I had 5 horses and was winning at 10%. I could have won more I just didn't want to lose my horses by dropping them down. If I could do what I did with zero background other than handicapping it's not hard to believe that trainers can win at 25-30%

[Stillriledup]

A 10% win rate is not hard to achieve.
I claimed my first horse in 2004. I knew nothing about caring for race horses. I jumped right in over my head and fired my trainer after a month and claimed a couple more from super trainers over the 3 months. I rented a farm trained them myself with the help of a exercise rider. I entered the horses under a 1% program trainers name. After a year I had 5 horses and was winning at 10%. I could have won more I just didn't want to lose my horses by dropping them down. If I could do what I did with zero background other than handicapping it's not hard to believe that trainers can win at 25-30%

I think it goes a little deeper than wins, it's HOW they win that's important to note. The dramatic overnight improvement is also something to consider.

[InsideTheRaces.com]

I think it goes a little deeper than wins, it's HOW they win that's important to note. The dramatic overnight improvement is also something to consider.

The dramatic over night improvement is not exactly overnight.
Don't forget these are athletes!
Even if you're a talented athlete do you feel like running if your feet hurt?
What if your back hurts?
How much energy do you have if you're being fed whatever the hay man has dropped off to your barn. Remember the loser trainer has no money and doesn't even know how to test his hay for nutritional value. That trainer just buys hay from the cheapest guy who comes to his barn after he's run out of hay.
Do you think a horse can achieve optimal performance while eating a nutritionally deficient diet?
All these little aspects when combined together add up to some big improvements.
The bottom level/subpar performance trainer is what they are because they don't take a logical and scientific approach to training their athletes.
It really is as simple as that.
Go to the backside and see it. It's there and it's real.
You have your good neighborhood and your bad neighborhood. The guys is the good neighborhood win more races and live in better houses.

[Boulder]

What happens when a Super trainer gets caught.
Then he can't find the winners circle.
They're win percentage drops in the teens.
Is it because he is no longer doing feet, hay, and etc.
I think it just comes down to common sense.

PS.
I have been a owner at Monmouth Park and been in the back plenty of times over the last 25 years.

[Stillriledup]

The dramatic over night improvement is not exactly overnight.
Don't forget these are athletes!
Even if you're a talented athlete do you feel like running if your feet hurt?
What if your back hurts?
How much energy do you have if you're being fed whatever the hay man has dropped off to your barn. Remember the loser trainer has no money and doesn't even know how to test his hay for nutritional value. That trainer just buys hay from the cheapest guy who comes to his barn after he's run out of hay.
Do you think a horse can achieve optimal performance while eating a nutritionally deficient diet?
All these little aspects when combined together add up to some big improvements.
The bottom level/subpar performance trainer is what they are because they don't take a logical and scientific approach to training their athletes.
It really is as simple as that.
Go to the backside and see it. It's there and it's real.
You have your good neighborhood and your bad neighborhood. The guys is the good neighborhood win more races and live in better houses.

Your position is interesting, you seem like an oats and hayer 10 pct guy I'm curious why rush to the defense of the 40 pct trainer ?

[InsideTheRaces.com]

Your position is interesting, you seem like an oats and hayer 10 pct guy I'm curious why rush to the defense of the 40 pct trainer ?

I'm not rushing to defend these guys. All I'm saying is there are legal things that can be done to improve the horses these guys own or are claiming. Horses can't talk and tell you what's wrong. I guarantee you a NFL player is hurting and in pain after a NFL game. A super trainer will have the vet give the horse a pain killer after the race or a hard workout for several days maybe a week or more. The horses aren't dumb if they know they are going to be hurting and in pain after a race why try hard. It's a pain association game. Do you get what I'm saying. There are more things going on then you know when you are looking at the game from one side. Here's another tidbit you teach the horse with a buzzer when to run. You basically teach it a cue. You start running and give full effort when I touch you here or I'm going to shock you.

[InsideTheRaces.com]

What happens when a Super trainer gets caught.
Then he can't find the winners circle.
They're win percentage drops in the teens.
Is it because he is no longer doing feet, hay, and etc.
I think it just comes down to common sense.

PS.
I have been a owner at Monmouth Park and been in the back plenty of times over the last 25 years.

I'd like to see some stats of a trainer getting caught that is a 25% + trainer and his stats plummet into the teens with the same horses in his barn. If so how long are they in the teens?

If you have been on the backside then you can attest to the disparity of the competition. Unless you are blind you can see who has their act together and who doesn't.

Does cheating occur? Yes of course it does. I can tell you first hand it does. The funny thing is the guys who are cheating the most are the ones who can't win a race.

[Track Phantom]

Keep pushing that boulder up the hill. It is going to be a long, arduous task to convert us long-time followers from highly (and I mean HIGHLY) skeptical to believer.

Anyone can claim doing feet, teeth, etc contributes to the improvement of a horse when claimed off of dolt-trainers. But, it's like saying I ace'd a test because I got a good night's sleep, took a shower, arrived at class early and meditated before the exam. The fact is, while those things may have made me sharper, it was the hours of study preparation that made virtually all of the difference.

Ever wonder why the recently claimed super trainer horses all show blazing speed, even when they didn't prior to the claim? What is being administered to these horses allows the runners to tire at a slower rate. Thus, getting to the lead is the most likely way to win. How many times do you need to see a Ness or Broberg runner quarterhorse to the lead, being worked, whipped and caught on the turn, only to rebrake and kick on late? I have an IQ over 14 so I can piece this together rather quickly.

I believe many trainers are using performance enhancers that may or may not be listed as illegal but are clearly performance enhancing.

Isn't it ironic that Jack Van Berg went about 8 years with a 1% win percentage and fought against what he called "chemical warfare on the backside" but, all of a sudden, he starts winning at 15%, 20%, 30% over an extended period of time? I love Jack Van Berg and could care less how he is achieving his success but...c'mon!! Was he once smart, then very dumb, then smart again? People may say he's getting better horses, which is likely part of it. But, he had similar stock for a big chunk of that 1% strike rate.

When I started following this game in 1986, I did so, for many years, with rose-colored glasses. I loved that time. I believed in all horse and training achievements. I loved being a fan. In about 1998, same time that Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were hitting 600 foot moonshots every other at-bat, people like Jeff Mullins and Scott Lake were winning with virtually anything at rates never before seen. I actually remember a Mullins runner he claimed, a hopeless, many lengths beaten maiden claimer. He was entered in a MSW and was bet down from 20-1 morning line to 6-5. Paddock analysts and TVG commentators were completely perplexed. The horse should have been 95-1. It won with almost no effort. That is when I knew whatever was being administered to these horses had the kind of effect to turn a plow horse into a stakes horse.

[ebcorde]

Keep pushing that boulder up the hill. It is going to be a long, arduous task to convert us long-time followers from highly (and I mean HIGHLY) skeptical to believer.

Anyone can claim doing feet, teeth, etc contributes to the improvement of a horse when claimed off of dolt-trainers. But, it's like saying I ace'd a test because I got a good night's sleep, took a shower, arrived at class early and meditated before the exam. The fact is, while those things may have made me sharper, it was the hours of study preparation that made virtually all of the difference.

Ever wonder why the recently claimed super trainer horses all show blazing speed, even when they didn't prior to the claim? What is being administered to these horses allows the runners to tire at a slower rate. Thus, getting to the lead is the most likely way to win. How many times do you need to see a Ness or Broberg runner quarterhorse to the lead, being worked, whipped and caught on the turn, only to rebrake and kick on late? I have an IQ over 14 so I can piece this together rather quickly.

I believe many trainers are using performance enhancers that may or may not be listed as illegal but are clearly performance enhancing.

Isn't it ironic that Jack Van Berg went about 8 years with a 1% win percentage and fought against what he called "chemical warfare on the backside" but, all of a sudden, he starts winning at 15%, 20%, 30% over an extended period of time? I love Jack Van Berg and could care less how he is achieving his success but...c'mon!! Was he once smart, then very dumb, then smart again? People may say he's getting better horses, which is likely part of it. But, he had similar stock for a big chunk of that 1% strike rate.

When I started following this game in 1986, I did so, for many years, with rose-colored glasses. I loved that time. I believed in all horse and training achievements. I loved being a fan. In about 1998, same time that Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were hitting 600 foot moonshots every other at-bat, people like Jeff Mullins and Scott Lake were winning with virtually anything at rates never before seen. I actually remember a Mullins runner he claimed, a hopeless, many lengths beaten maiden claimer. He was entered in a MSW and was bet down from 20-1 morning line to 6-5. Paddock analysts and TVG commentators were completely perplexed. The horse should have been 95-1. It won with almost no effort. That is when I knew whatever was being administered to these horses had the kind of effect to turn a plow horse into a stakes horse.


The Horse still has to have some talent to build on


Barry Bonds got caught because he was a HOF without drugs. Then he juiced and it was TOO Obvious while a guy like the TVG catcher can juice and most people won't notice

I always wondered if a Trainer visited Balco back then. A horse would a good guinea pig.

[lamboguy]

just last week the state of New York found a test for Glaucine. they caught 2 big harness trainers using it. when you use both Glaucine and a medication or herb that will stop bleeding (not lasix) you will have a pretty powerful horse from what i can see. i would imagine that this same stuff is being used in the runners as well. but have no proof of it.

http://www.harnesslink.com/International/Ron-Burke-and-Julie-Miller-hit-with-drug-charges

[lamboguy]

on another note. i never liked giving horses ulcerguard or gastroguard, mainly because the stuff is so expensive and you cant use it a week before the race. but what i have found is that some horses have their intestines irritated from oats, so what i did was create a special feed that i made up using a small portion of potato's and other ingredients from the food family. switching the horses over to this from oats is another story in itself. but if i was able to switch, the results would be better than giving horses ulcer meds.

[Stillriledup]

I'd like to see some stats of a trainer getting caught that is a 25% + trainer and his stats plummet into the teens with the same horses in his barn. If so how long are they in the teens?

If you have been on the backside then you can attest to the disparity of the competition. Unless you are blind you can see who has their act together and who doesn't.

Does cheating occur? Yes of course it does. I can tell you first hand it does. The funny thing is the guys who are cheating the most are the ones who can't win a race.

You have mentioned 'the backside' a lot in this thread and it seems like there's some belief that the people back there know more than the people not back there, but I don't know what any of that has to do with placing winning wagers on horses or know whos cheating. Am I misinterpreting what you're suggesting?

[Mandrake]

The problem is super trainer is only defined one way, by win percentage. Some super trainers are super traders, the play the claiming game like stock traders play options. Some learned from the brightest and since they were also the brightest, took it to the next step. Great experience in any job is valuable for the next job. By equating win percentage with cheating (it seems always) is ludicrous. As in any other profession, you have the brightest and the hacks. Sometimes it doesn't have to be anymore complicated than that.

[ebcorde]

but a lot of us were athletes. Like athletes, Horses are slotted for the right company, drugs/no drugs.

People get hurt/sick, Horses get hurt/sick, People don't have their A game that day same with Horses.

And some people thrive under certain coaches and some don't.
That's how I see it

[Boulder]

Here just a couple Rudy Rod in NY, Jane Cibelli, band from Tampa for 1 year and came to NJ and could win. Below teens. A guy from Penn. Nat. I believe his name was Mc Carsky? There are more but like I said when they caught there numbers drop like a rock.

Again I am a strong believer in common sense.

[no breathalyzer]

underrated thread... you made some great points.

[InsideTheRaces.com]

You have mentioned 'the backside' a lot in this thread and it seems like there's some belief that the people back there know more than the people not back there, but I don't know what any of that has to do with placing winning wagers on horses or know whos cheating. Am I misinterpreting what you're suggesting?

No the people on the backside don't know more then the people not back there.
My point is the people who know both sides of the track know more than someone who only knows or have seen one side.

Like lambo said these super trainers have the horses to dominate a condition book.

Most regular trainers have a barn full of horses that have run through all the non winners life time conditions. 75% of their horses that can't win open 5k/bottom level claiming races. The only hope they have is non winners of a race in 6 months or a year at the bottom claiming price. The tracks don't write many races for that condition in a year. If their horse gets entered you'll see most of the time the super trainers have horses entered dropping in class or entering off a long layoff. This regular trainer has very little chance under these circumstances.

If you were work on the backside of the track from 5am - noon everyday for 3 months I think you might have a different take on whats really happening in racing.

[Stillriledup]

If nutrition and feet and teeth and stuff like that was the real reason for improvement, how come some of these horses drop off the map the first time they are away from the super trainer barn? The teeth and feet and nutrition work doesn't get lost in the week after the barn change, yet, claims going from the 40 pct guy to the 10 pct guy drop off considerably.

[Stillriledup]

No the people on the backside don't know more then the people not back there.
My point is the people who know both sides of the track know more than someone who only knows or have seen one side.

Like lambo said these super trainers have the horses to dominate a condition book.

Most regular trainers have a barn full of horses that have run through all the non winners life time conditions. 75% of their horses that can't win open 5k/bottom level claiming races. The only hope they have is non winners of a race in 6 months or a year at the bottom claiming price. The tracks don't write many races for that condition in a year. If their horse gets entered you'll see most of the time the super trainers have horses entered dropping in class or entering off a long layoff. This regular trainer has very little chance under these circumstances.

If you were work on the backside of the track from 5am - noon everyday for 3 months I think you might have a different take on whats really happening in racing.

Try and explain to me how walking the backstretch, as an owner or fan can help you become a better handicapper or know more about racing. How does it help you pick winners or structure wagers. I'm not following.

[ReplayRandall]

If nutrition and feet and teeth and stuff like that was the real reason for improvement, how come some of these horses drop off the map the first time they are away from the super trainer barn? The teeth and feet and nutrition work doesn't get lost in the week after the barn change, yet, claims going from the 40 pct guy to the 10 pct guy drop off considerably.

Horses are like citrus fruits. Most trainers don't know how to squeeze the "juice" out of each horse they train, for maximum profitability. Along comes the Super trainer and magically, the horse performs much better than it ever has. Is it because of superior methods of diet, exercise and training regimen? Or is it because of "magic Vet work", undetected by track drug testing? In most cases, it appears the latter, as immediate results are too unexplainable, especially when horse has been claimed from a legit 15% trainer......

[InsideTheRaces.com]

If nutrition and feet and teeth and stuff like that was the real reason for improvement, how come some of these horses drop off the map the first time they are away from the super trainer barn? The teeth and feet and nutrition work doesn't get lost in the week after the barn change, yet, claims going from the 40 pct guy to the 10 pct guy drop off considerably.

They drop off because of the bad environment they are put in. Pain association, bad diet, only leaves the stall to walk, and the list goes on.

Imagine you're a human runner. You just ran a huge race and won. Some knuckle head claims you and takes you back to his house. He doesn't give you any pain medication or Anti-inflammatory. He puts you in a room with a crappy bed and gives you a bag Mcdonalds food. You wake up the next day to another bag of Mcdonalds and they walk you down the hall for a minute or two. You get thrown back in the room to stand around or sleep in the crappy bed. Meanwhile your muscles are sore and you feel like crap. Over the next couple weeks you go to the track once or twice to jog. You're still eating mcdonalds still sleeping in a crappy bed and now it's race day.
How well are you going to run today?

[pandy]

A 10% win rate is not hard to achieve.
I claimed my first horse in 2004. I knew nothing about caring for race horses. I jumped right in over my head and fired my trainer after a month and claimed a couple more from super trainers over the 3 months. I rented a farm trained them myself with the help of a exercise rider. I entered the horses under a 1% program trainers name. After a year I had 5 horses and was winning at 10%. I could have won more I just didn't want to lose my horses by dropping them down. If I could do what I did with zero background other than handicapping it's not hard to believe that trainers can win at 25-30%


Good point. I've never trained a horse but I've always felt that anyone who simply loves horses and takes care of them can train their own horses and do okay. If I was going to try this, I would try to find an experienced groom because they can spot things that may be wrong with the horse. As you say, one of the biggest keys is whether or not you are willing to risk losing the horse.

I also agree with you that many trainers simply don't do enough for their horses because they either can't afford to, or they don't want to spend the money. It costs money for legal drugs, new shoes, or even to use modern techniques such as hiring a massage specialist...also, it costs money to rent stalls on a farm for turning out or using a swimming facility, etc. The low rent guy is going to keep his horses in the stall longer.

[SuperPickle]

That's right super trainers are not cheats for the most part.

Stillriledup have you been to the backside from 5 am - 11 am to see what happens?

From all your postings I assume you play this game for a living, am I correct?

I would frame it more like their success is more than drugs. You simply can't just dope horses to 30%. There is more to it than that.

One of things I always point about Jacobson is he immediately assesses what he has and play the horse where he needs to place it. He'll claim something for $25K get it back to the barn and looks under the hood and if he thinks its a $10K horse he runs the horse back for $10K. He's generally able to do this because he owns the horse a lot of the time. He understands that what kills your profit is claiming horses and have them slowly go down the tube. Guys drop them one notch at time and no one claims them at all or when they get to the bottom.

Guys like him and Ness are better at taking a quick tiny loss on a horse but dropping it quickly when most guys wait till its too late.

[cj]

I don't post much but I just got done reading the Karl Broberg thread and thought I would reply to it but thought it was better to start a new thread.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=123516&page=15&pp=15

I'll try to keep it concise and to the point with a few comparisons to show/prove my point.

Most of you are handicappers and have never seen the backside of a track. Bottom line, 80% of horse trainers have no business being in business period.
I'm sure all of you have been to the track or a OTB and have watched horseplayers placing wagers with info from the track program or no program at all. I'm sure all of you have thought wow these are the clowns I'm betting against.
The backside of the track is no different from what you see at the windows of the track or OTB.
For the most part the trainers love the horses and love the game just like the idiot playing numbers in the OTB. They are there everyday doing what they do.

Super handicapper
Has better data, follows trainer and jockey stats, watches replays, is prepared before placing bets, and only bets when they think they have an advantage.
Handicapper
Shows up and maybe buys a track program, no plan, scrambles to place bets based on little or no information.

Lets say a trainer claims a horse here's what might happen

Super Trainer
Pulls the shoes off the horse and soaks feet for a hour or two each day.
Gets the horse's teeth done.
Chiropractic work done.
Gets new shoes for the horse after a couple weeks of no shoes
Legal medication to reduce swelling or pain.
*Proper hay and feed (very few trainers test their hay for nutritional value)
Proper exercise
Round pen time so the horse can really roll and stretch the muscles.

Trainer
Put them in the barn.
Put them on the barns regular schedule.
The regular schedule for most trainers is.
Feed the horse a diet that has not been tested for nutritional value.
Maybe get the horse out of the stall in the morning because you can't or don't want to pay for exercise riders.
I could go on but I won't

Bottom line if you go to the backside in the morning (6 am) you can see who runs a professional operation and who doesn't.

The other aspect of the super trainer is they have owners that don't care if the horse gets claimed. If the owner won't run where the super trainer wants it to run they have about 24 hrs to get their horse out of his barn.
The regular trainer just wants the day money and doesn't want to lose the horse. Reason being he makes money off the day money because he's skimping on care. The super trainer spends the day money on the horse and only makes money when the horse wins.

When you look at how the super trainer takes care of the horse and how they place the horses in races it's not very far fetched how they can improve horse and win more than a regular trainer.
Are some cheating? Maybe?

I could go on forever about the difference between a super trainer and a trainer.

It's like any business, 20% make 80% of the money.

I'm ready for the fallout bring it on!

You probably noticed I said a lot of this in the Broberg thread. Having spent quite a bit of time at Remington this past year and many years at Charles Town, it is easy to see why some guys win so much. There are a ton of guys training that are hopeless. When they happen to get a decent horse, the smart guys snap them up.

It isn't always drugs and cheating that moves horses up. I'm not naive enough to think nobody cheats, but I don't think that accounts for most of the move ups. When I see guys taking horses from top trainers and moving them up, that is when I start questioning to myself what is going on.

I will add that it isn't always the "super trainer" running the show...it is often times the owner.

[pandy]

True about the owner. Calabrese win a high percentage regardless of who trains his horses. They all become super trainers once they get Frank as an owner.

[SuperPickle]

You probably noticed I said a lot of this in the Broberg thread. Having spent quite a bit of time at Remington this past year and many years at Charles Town, it is easy to see why some guys win so much. There are a ton of guys training that are hopeless. When they happen to get a decent horse, the smart guys snap them up.

It isn't always drugs and cheating that moves horses up. I'm not naive enough to think nobody cheats, but I don't think that accounts for most of the move ups. When I see guys taking horses from top trainers and moving them up, that is when I start questioning to myself what is going on.

I will add that it isn't always the "super trainer" running the show...it is often times the owner.

It's kind of funny you brought this up but I happened to notice this weekend Barbara Hopkins also has horses with Ramon Moya and just started claiming horses in New York with Danny Gargan. For those who don't know she's the big owner behind Ramon Preciado. All of those guys hit at a 20%+ rate.

You really can't underscore the value of the owner.

Again it's not as simply as drugging horses.

[cj]

It's kind of funny you brought this up but I happened to notice this weekend Barbara Hopkins also has horses with Ramon Moya and just started claiming horses in New York with Danny Gargan. For those who don't know she's the big owner behind Ramon Preciado. All of those guys hit at a 20%+ rate.

You really can't underscore the value of the owner.

Again it's not as simply as drugging horses.

Danny Caldwell is another example. He could probably hire clueless me to train his horses and I'd win at 25%. The guy does his homework.

[GatetoWire]

Here just a couple Rudy Rod in NY, Jane Cibelli, band from Tampa for 1 year and came to NJ and could win. Below teens. A guy from Penn. Nat. I believe his name was Mc Carsky? There are more but like I said when they caught there numbers drop like a rock.

Again I am a strong believer in common sense.

You can add David Jacobson to this list.

When NYRA put Jacobson and Rudy under 24 hour surveillance they both experienced huge drops in win %.
Jacobson went from red hot, winning races in bunches to not winning a race for 28 or 29 consecutive days.

I sure he just forgot to check to see if his hay was good.

[big frank]

The owners are the key......They pay the vets who give the drugs to these horses......The super trainers wouldn't even know how and when to give the drug......as far as super trainers , things are getting crazy at Gulfstream....Navarro horses are running like they have a rocket strapped to there backs........And today Ness had a horse off the claim run off the screen in a 5f turf sprint.....won by 10 ......how often do you see a 5f turf race won by 10 ???? and he wasn't dropping , he was on the rise......to me you could make adjustments and move a horse up , that is logical ......but it is when a horse moves WAY UP is when there is no question juice is involved.....Navarro had a 12 claimer win by 10 in 1.09 flat today in hand....and what about his horse Defer Heaven.......has 3 straight blowout wins in blazing times....yesterday won by 8 in 44.3 1.08.3 1.21.3 for 7f in hand.......by the way i have played all of these examples to win.....so it is not sour grapes ,, best of luck

[VigorsTheGrey]

I'm a long time race fan new to the blog. I assure you, I am not so informed as most here but I do enjoy blogging....One trainer that has come to my attention in recent days is Jorge Navarro. I know very little about him or his methods with horses but he does get the winners home...There was some news about Monster (energy drink) corp signing a deal with Zayed and others on marketing with American Pharoah. Is Monster Racing Stables (who Navarro trains for, I believe) the same group as Monster drink group?

[RXB]

Nobody doubts that these supertrainers take care of their horses and spot them properly. What we doubt is that they could win ~30% without doping on top. Lance Armstrong couldn't just blow off his training and eat pepperoni pizza because he doped. He did the training AND the doping in order to win.

[eqitec]

One conclusion I've drawn from my research is that super trainers such as T. Pletcher or C. Brown get the job done via consistent, regular, standardized training regimens. It's very rare when one of their starters doesn't show the familiar # and pattern of workouts leading up to their starts (see attached data.)

While this is reassuring to me, it doesn't exclude the possibility that other factors (e.g., shoeing) or substances (nutritional, etc) are also critical to their super training outcomes.

The attached are are excerpts from my research in this area for 3 trainers.
Pletcher's data is from 257 winners.
Navvaro's data is from 79 winners
Ness's data is from 100 winners.

You can see that Pletcher is at one extreme and Ness at the other. Navarro is somewhere in the middle. In Navarro's case his training regimens are standardized enough for me to worry less about how he gets winners than I did before my research.

Granted that the kind of owners who support Pletcher or Brown have a high degree of patience allowing full training regimens to occur before horses they own are started.

In the case of how Ness gets his winners, the data suggests that other training factors may be influential when compared against super trainers such as Pletcher or Brown.

Also, some super trainers such as Pletcher, are using good automated stable management systems such as T-Lore or iStable which enable their remote management of 100s of horses across the country where assistant trainers execute the standardized training regimens without fail.

[no breathalyzer]

The owners are the key......They pay the vets who give the drugs to these horses......The super trainers wouldn't even know how and when to give the drug......as far as super trainers , things are getting crazy at Gulfstream....Navarro horses are running like they have a rocket strapped to there backs........And today Ness had a horse off the claim run off the screen in a 5f turf sprint.....won by 10 ......how often do you see a 5f turf race won by 10 ???? and he wasn't dropping , he was on the rise......to me you could make adjustments and move a horse up , that is logical ......but it is when a horse moves WAY UP is when there is no question juice is involved.....Navarro had a 12 claimer win by 10 in 1.09 flat today in hand....and what about his horse Defer Heaven.......has 3 straight blowout wins in blazing times....yesterday won by 8 in 44.3 1.08.3 1.21.3 for 7f in hand.......by the way i have played all of these examples to win.....so it is not sour grapes ,, best of luck


Seems legit :D