Angle Testing Selections

[Winger]

I've been doing some on paper testing of a new angle method that I'd like to try out. Time to put it to a real test. My plan is to bet $50 per day across my selections.

[Winger]

Day 1

$10 Win on Each

FG-5 :6: Carlientita (8/5)
GG-6 :4: Next Book (6/1)
SA-1 :5: Its Just Bob (15/1)
TUP-1 :6: Slam a Cocktail (9/5)
TUP-2 :6: Small Moves (7/2)

[Winger]

Day 1

$10 Win on Each

FG-5 :6: Carlientita (8/5)
GG-6 :4: Next Book (6/1)
SA-1 :5: Its Just Bob (15/1)
TUP-1 :6: Slam a Cocktail (9/5)
TUP-2 :6: Small Moves (7/2)


TUP-2 :6: Small Moves (7/2) 1st...6.00

Day 1: -$20
Total: -$20


$5 Win on Each. (will be $55 if none scratch)

AQU-1 :3: Manhattan Special (9/5)
AQU-5 :4: Wind Clan Warrior (6/1)
AQU-7 :3: Town Tart (5/2)
FG-4 :5: Mon Petit Pote (5/2)
GP-3 :1: Scuba Sue (5/2)
LRL-6 :11: Legends Hope (12/1)
OP-1 :8: Run for Stormy
OP-10 :1: Rays Warrior (4/1)
SA-6 :2 Hot Rodin (5/2)
SA-9 :7: Crushin Candy (5/2)
TUP-2 :4: Judy Kay (7/2)

[bugboy]

wow winger , great pick on that laural race....good luck with your system..hope it works for you.

[Winger]

wow winger , great pick on that laural race....good luck with your system..hope it works for you.


Thanks BugBoy. Still some fine-tuning, but that longshot helped.

[Winger]

TUP-2 :6: Small Moves (7/2) 1st...6.00

Day 1: -$20
Total: -$20


$5 Win on Each. (will be $55 if none scratch)

AQU-1 :3: Manhattan Special (9/5)
AQU-5 :4: Wind Clan Warrior (6/1)
AQU-7 :3: Town Tart (5/2)
FG-4 :5: Mon Petit Pote (5/2)
GP-3 :1: Scuba Sue (5/2)
LRL-6 :11: Legends Hope (12/1)
OP-1 :8: Run for Stormy
OP-10 :1: Rays Warrior (4/1)
SA-6 :2 Hot Rodin (5/2)
SA-9 :7: Crushin Candy (5/2)
TUP-2 :4: Judy Kay (7/2)

AQU-1 :3: Manhattan Special (9/5) 1st...3.40 (8.50)
LRL-6 :11: Legends Hope (12/1) 1st...77.20 (193.00)
OP-10 :1: Rays Warrior (4/1) 1st...8.20 (20.50)


Day 2: +$167
Total: +$147

Day 3 Wagers:
$25 Win
MVR-4 :9: Carolyn M (3/1)
TUP-2 :3: Tastes Secret (9/5)

[ultracapper]

$77.20

BaZing. Now you're talkin'.

Nice

[haappyy]

speed kills!

[Winger]

Day 2: +$167
Total: +$147

Day 3 Wagers:
$25 Win
MVR-4 :9: Carolyn M (3/1)
TUP-2 :3: Tastes Secret (9/5)

MVR-4 :9: Carolyn M (3/1) Cancelled - $25 Returned

Day 3: -$25
Total: +$122

Day 4 Wagers:
$25 Win
GP-2 :8: Trini Lime (10/1)
PEN-4 :11: Road Agent (15/1)


Only a couple of long shots today. Could be a big pay day, not likely, but would be nice.

[Winger]

Day 3: -$25
Total: +$122

Day 4 Wagers:
$25 Win
GP-2 :8: Trini Lime (10/1)
PEN-4 :11: Road Agent (15/1)


Only a couple of long shots today. Could be a big pay day, not likely, but would be nice.

PEN-4 :11: Road Agent (15/1) Cancelled - $25 Returned

Day 4: -$25
Total: +$97

Day 5 Wagers:
$8 Win Each and a $2 Double for the first 2 at Delta
DED-1 :7: Madelyns All (7/2)
DED-2 :8: Dr Jacob D (10/1)
DED-6 :5: Stewie Little (5/1)
OP-2 :2: Smarty Star (20/1)
TAM-9 :8: Honey Chile Ryder (8/1)
TUP-9 :7: Flaunt (5/1)

I'm going to add a conditional lower limit to my wagers of 2/1 at 1 minute to post.

[Winger]

Day 4: -$25
Total: +$97

Day 5 Wagers:
$8 Win Each and a $2 Double for the first 2 at Delta
DED-1 :7: Madelyns All (7/2)
DED-2 :8: Dr Jacob D (10/1)
DED-6 :5: Stewie Little (5/1)
OP-2 :2: Smarty Star (20/1)
TAM-9 :8: Honey Chile Ryder (8/1)
TUP-9 :7: Flaunt (5/1)

I'm going to add a conditional lower limit to my wagers of 2/1 at 1 minute to post.

DED-1 :7: Madelyns All (7/2) 1st...9.80 (39.20)
DED-6 :5: Stewie Little (5/1) Conditional Wager Not Met $8 Returned

Day 5: -$3
Total: +$94

Day 6 Wagers:
$6 Win Each
CT-1 :1: Sweet Brown (8/1)
DED-1 :8: Toast to Jason (12/1)
DED-9 :8: Hidden Key (3/1)
FG-3 :4: Jackie Ems Pal (4/1)
HOU-5 :3: Friendly Shadow (15/1)
PEN-2 :1: R U Forreal (9/2)
TAM-8 :13: Dioscuri (15/1)
TP-3 :2: Bold Broad (12/1)
TP-10 :8: Itzpapalotl (6/1)

[Winger]

Day 5: -$3
Total: +$94

Day 6 Wagers:
$6 Win Each
CT-1 :1: Sweet Brown (8/1)
DED-1 :8: Toast to Jason (12/1)
DED-9 :8: Hidden Key (3/1)
FG-3 :4: Jackie Ems Pal (4/1)
HOU-5 :3: Friendly Shadow (15/1)
PEN-2 :1: R U Forreal (9/2)
TAM-8 :13: Dioscuri (15/1)
TP-3 :2: Bold Broad (12/1)
TP-10 :8: Itzpapalotl (6/1)

CT-1 :1: Sweet Brown (8/1) 1st...7.40 (22.20)
FG-3 :4: Jackie Ems Pal (4/1) 1st...4.80 (14.40)
PEN-2 :1: R U Forreal (9/2) Cancelled - Returned $6

Day 6: -$11
Total: +$83

Lots of races tomorrow.

$3 Win Each. Between Scratches/Race Cancellations and Wager Conditions not being met, I anticipate that the final total wagered will be close to $50.
DED-2 :10: Friend of Indy (3/1)
DED-3 :11: Willieverwin (12/1)
DED-5 :5: Electric Kiss (7/2)
DED-8 :6: Aarons Bluff (5/1)
FG-1 :11: Contrip (8/1)
FG-12 :6: Graysons Yanke (10/1)
HOU-9 :7: Bravura (2/1)
MVR-8 :3: Crofter (10/1)
OP-6 :6: Scat Sister (12/1)
OP-6 :4: Spank (12/1)
OP-8 :11: Super Saks (6/1)
PEN-4 :9: Road Agent (10/1)
PEN-5 :8: Uncle Tony (8/1)
PEN-7 :7: On The Zip (5/2)
SA-3 :1: One More Round (6/1)
SA-4 :4: Secret Chords (4/1)
SA-9 :10: Papas Maggie (5/2)
TAM-1 :11: Area Fifty One (8/1)
TAM-2 :4: Overstand (12/1)
TAM-9 :9: Atlantics Smile (20/1)
TP-1 :4: Forged Signature (5/2)
TP-8 :3: Sonoma Doro (6/1)
TUP-2 :2: G T El Gato (5/1)

[Winger]

OP-6 should be :1: Impasse and not :4: Spank

[Winger]

CT-1 :1: Sweet Brown (8/1) 1st...7.40 (22.20)
FG-3 :4: Jackie Ems Pal (4/1) 1st...4.80 (14.40)
PEN-2 :1: R U Forreal (9/2) Cancelled - Returned $6

Day 6: -$11
Total: +$83

Lots of races tomorrow.

$3 Win Each. Between Scratches/Race Cancellations and Wager Conditions not being met, I anticipate that the final total wagered will be close to $50.
DED-2 :10: Friend of Indy (3/1)
DED-3 :11: Willieverwin (12/1)
DED-5 :5: Electric Kiss (7/2)
DED-8 :6: Aarons Bluff (5/1)
FG-1 :11: Contrip (8/1)
FG-12 :6: Graysons Yanke (10/1)
HOU-9 :7: Bravura (2/1)
MVR-8 :3: Crofter (10/1)
OP-6 :6: Scat Sister (12/1)
OP-6 :4: Spank (12/1)
OP-8 :11: Super Saks (6/1)
PEN-4 :9: Road Agent (10/1)
PEN-5 :8: Uncle Tony (8/1)
PEN-7 :7: On The Zip (5/2)
SA-3 :1: One More Round (6/1)
SA-4 :4: Secret Chords (4/1)
SA-9 :10: Papas Maggie (5/2)
TAM-1 :11: Area Fifty One (8/1)
TAM-2 :4: Overstand (12/1)
TAM-9 :9: Atlantics Smile (20/1)
TP-1 :4: Forged Signature (5/2)
TP-8 :3: Sonoma Doro (6/1)
TUP-2 :2: G T El Gato (5/1)


8 Races scratched/didn't meet conditional wagers.
DED-8 :6: Aarons Bluff (5/1) 1st... 15.00 (22.50)

This was a rough week for the method, but pulled out positive due to the big long shot winner.

Day 7: -$23
Total: +$60

Day 8 Wagers:
$10 Win Each
FG-2 :3: Wow Wow Wooster (7/2)
GG-1 :1: Silver Marquise (12/1)
OP-4 :9: Roma Road (10/1)
OP-9 :2: In Lillys Hand (10/1)
SA-9 :3: Black Clover (7/2)

[Winger]

8 Races scratched/didn't meet conditional wagers.
DED-8 :6: Aarons Bluff (5/1) 1st... 15.00 (22.50)

This was a rough week for the method, but pulled out positive due to the big long shot winner.

Day 7: -$23
Total: +$60

Day 8 Wagers:
$10 Win Each
FG-2 :3: Wow Wow Wooster (7/2)
GG-1 :1: Silver Marquise (12/1)
OP-4 :9: Roma Road (10/1)
OP-9 :2: In Lillys Hand (10/1)
SA-9 :3: Black Clover (7/2)

Nothing today

Day 8: -$50
Total: +$10

I'm imposing a new rule to cap any bet at $10, so if there aren't enough bets, I won't make the $50 per day.

Day 9 Wagers:
$10 Win Each
TUP-2 :5: Zenita (5/1)
TUP-3 :2: Rock of Faith (9/5)
TUP-5 :3: Cherokee War Chant (3/1)

[Winger]

Remove TUP-2 :5: Zenita

[NorCalGreg]

I've had a "form" open at times you posted your selections....for the life of me I can't figure out your method. I was looking @ the race @ Penn---the "Simmstown" race--your pick was ROAD AGENT.
Looked at that one for a while.....I'm stumped.

Good luck my friend.....I just looked in to see how you're doing. :ThmbUp:

later

-NCG

[marksinger]

zenita won big. leave her in. :)

[Winger]

I've had a "form" open at times you posted your selections....for the life of me I can't figure out your method. I was looking @ the race @ Penn---the "Simmstown" race--your pick was ROAD AGENT.
Looked at that one for a while.....I'm stumped.

Good luck my friend.....I just looked in to see how you're doing. :ThmbUp:

later

-NCG

It's strictly a calculation I'm playing with.

[Winger]

zenita won big. leave her in. :)

That's what I get for taking her out.

[Winger]

Nothing today

Day 8: -$50
Total: +$10

I'm imposing a new rule to cap any bet at $10, so if there aren't enough bets, I won't make the $50 per day.

Day 9 Wagers:
$10 Win Each
TUP-2 :5: Zenita (5/1)
TUP-3 :2: Rock of Faith (9/5)
TUP-5 :3: Cherokee War Chant (3/1)

TUP-2 :5: Zenita (5/1) Removed... ran first :mad:
TUP-3 :2: Rock of Faith (9/5) Didn't meet odds condition

Day 9: -$10
Total: Even

Day 10 Wagers:
$10 Win
MVR-8 :9: Bobby Mac (5/2)

[Winger]

TUP-2 :5: Zenita (5/1) Removed... ran first :mad:
TUP-3 :2: Rock of Faith (9/5) Didn't meet odds condition

Day 9: -$10
Total: Even

Day 10 Wagers:
$10 Win
MVR-8 :9: Bobby Mac (5/2)

Only bet today didn't meet wager conditions, even though he won.

Day 10: 0
Total: Even

Day 11 Wagers
$10 Win
DED-4 :4: Doodee (4/1)
MVR-6 :7: Nueshty (15/1)
PEN-3 :7: Lay Down The Law (2/1)

[theBozyn]

Hey Winger,
What the angle your testing? Or is that big secret?

[Winger]

Hey Winger,
What the angle your testing? Or is that big secret?


Bozyn, I have my own early speed calculation to determine which horse would be in the lead at the first call. I have another calculation to determine if that horse is in good enough form to be on the lead. If so, then I bet that horse. This method only applies to dirt sprints. I originally included a calculation for pace pressure, but I determined that the method actually does better when there is more pace pressure in the race, because I can get better prices on my horses and they still win at a decent rate.

[Winger]

Only bet today didn't meet wager conditions, even though he won.

Day 10: 0
Total: Even

Day 11 Wagers
$10 Win
DED-4 :4: Doodee (4/1)
MVR-6 :7: Nueshty (15/1)
PEN-3 :7: Lay Down The Law (2/1)

The Penn horse scratched.

Day 11: -$20
Total: -$20

Day 12 Wagers
$10 Win Each
GP-3 :3: Gato Dorado (7/5)
OP-2 :8: Relentless Dear (8/1)
PEN-3 :8: V Js Irish Rose (7/2)
SA-6 :8: Seattle Salt (8/1)
TAM-2 :6: Royal Baby (5/1)
TUP-4 :3: Trick City (6/5)

[Winger]

The Penn horse scratched.

Day 11: -$20
Total: -$20

Day 12 Wagers
$10 Win Each
GP-3 :3: Gato Dorado (7/5)
OP-2 :8: Relentless Dear (8/1)
PEN-3 :8: V Js Irish Rose (7/2)
SA-6 :8: Seattle Salt (8/1)
TAM-2 :6: Royal Baby (5/1)
TUP-4 :3: Trick City (6/5)

The 2 chalks didn't meet conditional wager.

Day 12: $-40
Total: -$60

As it always works, I started posting and now the method has gone through its worst 12 day spell that it's had. To note, if I was doing flat bet wagers, I'd still be positive due to the 1 longshot.

Day 13 Wagers:
$4 Win Each (Anticipating scratches and conditional wagers not met)
CT-4 :8: Boppin Anda Weavin (8/1)
DED-2 :1: In The A M (5/2)
FG-7 :4: Socal Vow (5/2)
GP-4 :2: Ifousnoozyoulose (5/2)
HOU-2 :4: Flying Clever (4/1)
LAX-3 :5: Known Defense (8/5)
LAX-5 :7: Grey Girl Gone (2/1)
OP-1 :1: Hot Blooded Song (6/1)
OP-8 :9: Seeking Angels (4/1)
OP-9 :4: Carsons Suspect (6/1)
PEN-1 :7: R U Foreal (6/1)
PEN-5 :8: Early One Morning (9/2)
SA-5 :2: Amazing Lady (5/2)
SA-8 :9: Herunbridledpower (5/2)
TAM-2 :5: Bea Wildcat (8/1)
TAM-3 :2: Ms B V I (2/1)

[NorCalGreg]

Are you assuming/hoping/banking on hitting big longshots with some regularity?

One longshot is carrying your method--toss that, and what do you have, after 12 days? The "rationalizing" about IF you had bet this way, etc....is avoiding what's right in front of you.

Winger you know me, and know I'm not trying to be a jerk...but might be time to do a major tweak on that method.

Good luck with that, dude.

I'll go and mind my own business, now.

-NCG

[Winger]

Are you assuming/hoping/banking on hitting big longshots with some regularity?

One longshot is carrying your method--toss that, and what do you have, after 12 days? The "rationalizing" about IF you had bet this way, etc....is avoiding what's right in front of you.

Winger you know me, and know I'm not trying to be a jerk...but might be time to do a major tweak on that method.

Good luck with that, dude.

I'll go and mind my own business, now.

-NCG

It's not at all banking on long shots. It's just hit a rough patch.

[Winger]

The 2 chalks didn't meet conditional wager.

Day 12: $-40
Total: -$60

As it always works, I started posting and now the method has gone through its worst 12 day spell that it's had. To note, if I was doing flat bet wagers, I'd still be positive due to the 1 longshot.

Day 13 Wagers:
$4 Win Each (Anticipating scratches and conditional wagers not met)
CT-4 :8: Boppin Anda Weavin (8/1)
DED-2 :1: In The A M (5/2)
FG-7 :4: Socal Vow (5/2)
GP-4 :2: Ifousnoozyoulose (5/2)
HOU-2 :4: Flying Clever (4/1)
LAX-3 :5: Known Defense (8/5)
LAX-5 :7: Grey Girl Gone (2/1)
OP-1 :1: Hot Blooded Song (6/1)
OP-8 :9: Seeking Angels (4/1)
OP-9 :4: Carsons Suspect (6/1)
PEN-1 :7: R U Foreal (6/1)
PEN-5 :8: Early One Morning (9/2)
SA-5 :2: Amazing Lady (5/2)
SA-8 :9: Herunbridledpower (5/2)
TAM-2 :5: Bea Wildcat (8/1)
TAM-3 :2: Ms B V I (2/1)


I'll play it through the weekend, but the method is in the middle of a 42 race losing streak. It has never endured a streak even half as long before. It is still positive through backtesting, despite the losing streak, and that includes removing all wins at >20/1 odds.

Day 13: -$40 - 10 successful wagers with no wins
Total: -$100

Day 14 Wagers:
$5 Win Each (Anticipating scratches and conditional wagers not met)
DED-1 :4: Fifty Five Steel (3/1)
DED-3 :8: Willieverwin (10/1)
DED-9 :1: Unitas (10/1)
DED-11 :5: Gentleman Jake (10/1)
FG-6 :2: Premium One (8/1)
GG-5 :7: Renegade Run (6/1)
GP-1 :6: NoHoldingBack Bear (5/2)
GP-2 :9: Don Lupe (6/1)
MVR-5 :3: Inspired Voyage (6/1)
OP-8 :8: Be My Caroline (12/1)
PEN-8 :1: Darn Quiet (4/1)
PRX-5 :1: Two Times Book (8/5)
SA-4 :2: Profond Visionary (4/1)
TAM-8 :6: Splash Rules (2/1)
TP-8 :4: New Zone (10/1)
TUP-5 :5: Fischer King (5/2)

[Winger]

Day 15 Wagers:
$7 Win Each
GG-8 :4: Bombay Bob (9/5)
GP-1 :3: Prague (5/2)
OP-6 :1: Small Fortune (8/1)
OP-7 :9: Emoji Man (6/1)
PRX-1 :1: Norm by a Nose (5/1)
PRX-2 :6: Hidden Pearl (8/1)
SUN-5 :2: Ize a Boss (5/2)
SUN-7 :2: Forin Sea (5/1)
SUN-8 :5: Timeles Indy (4/1)

[NorCalGreg]

Day 15 Wagers:
$7 Win Each
GG-8 :4: Bombay Bob (9/5)
GP-1 :3: Prague (5/2)
OP-6 :1: Small Fortune (8/1)
OP-7 :9: Emoji Man (6/1)
PRX-1 :1: Norm by a Nose (5/1)
PRX-2 :6: Hidden Pearl (8/1)
SUN-5 :2: Ize a Boss (5/2)
SUN-7 :2: Forin Sea (5/1)
SUN-8 :5: Timeles Indy (4/1)


I have the :6: @ Parx HIDDEN PEARL on my HTW list today---so scratch that one off :lol:

[whodoyoulike]

Bozyn, I have my own early speed calculation to determine which horse would be in the lead at the first call. I have another calculation to determine if that horse is in good enough form to be on the lead. If so, then I bet that horse. This method only applies to dirt sprints. I originally included a calculation for pace pressure, but I determined that the method actually does better when there is more pace pressure in the race, because I can get better prices on my horses and they still win at a decent rate.

So, your method focuses on a horse which will be the early leader in a Sprint plus another method which also indicates the same.

Are you keeping tabs whether they in fact are in the lead in these races at first call?

I'm curious, what is the ratio i.e., y of XX races and c of BB horses, if you have it avail.?

[Winger]

From my the beginning of database up to 2/13, with a 20/1 odds cap, the method was 50/219, with a 1.52 ROI (13.30 average mutual).

From the day I started posting, the method went 8/82 with a 0.63 ROI (12.93 average Mutual). This included a 46 race losing streak. So was the losing streak a very unlucky run-out, or was it a regression to the mean? I'll continue to monitor the method, but I'm going to stop betting it for now.

[Winger]

So, your method focuses on a horse which will be the early leader in a Sprint plus another method which also indicates the same.

Are you keeping tabs whether they in fact are in the lead in these races at first call?

I'm curious, what is the ratio i.e., y of XX races and c of BB horses, if you have it avail.?

It was an early speed+form combination. It did not account for time off of a layoff, because as I was testing the method, it did not drop off until 90+ days since last race.

[Winger]

I have the :6: @ Parx HIDDEN PEARL on my HTW list today---so scratch that one off :lol:

I can continue the thread to help you eliminate horses. ;)

[whodoyoulike]

... Are you keeping tabs whether they in fact are in the lead in these races at first call? ...


Thanks for the other info but I was wondering if the above was also true. Because sometimes the pp's are misleading, horses which appear to be a bunch of 1's in the pp lines aren't really as fast as they appear on paper.

I take it, you're favoring front runners will have an advantage in Sprints. I did a study a long time ago and front runners winning % was greater than pressers and closers % (don't recall % for each) but all running styles won. You may be experiencing this and shouldn't just rely on front runners.

[Winger]

Thanks for the other info but I was wondering if the above was also true. Because sometimes the pp's are misleading, horses which appear to be a bunch of 1's in the pp lines aren't really as fast as they appear on paper.

I take it, you're favoring front runners will have an advantage in Sprints. I did a study a long time ago and front runners winning % was greater than pressers and closers % (don't recall % for each) but all running styles won. You may be experiencing this and shouldn't just rely on front runners.

I could get that information, but it would require some work. I wasn't tracking it. I wasn't trying to make a method that applied to all races. I was trying to develop a method specifically for front running types. This is more because of the fact that I still have a pretty limited amount of data, so I don't have enough data on closing types. I have theories, but I need more data before I can really determine if I can turn that theory into a method.

[whodoyoulike]

I was just curious, no need to do the extra work. Just was wondering if you were keeping track since that seemed to be your focus. I didn't realize you weren't applying it to all races.

[lamboguy]

i would say that knowing the pace of the race is great, and quite helpful in finding winners, but maybe not enough to make money at it.

the most important factor to overcome takeout is to consistently bet on horses that have higher odds than what their probabilities are to win the race.


probably for a combination of reasons, i find that there are more mistakes on big saturdays that have big stake races.

[mikesal57]

From my the beginning of database up to 2/13, with a 20/1 odds cap, the method was 50/219, with a 1.52 ROI (13.30 average mutual).

From the day I started posting, the method went 8/82 with a 0.63 ROI (12.93 average Mutual). This included a 46 race losing streak. So was the losing streak a very unlucky run-out, or was it a regression to the mean? I'll continue to monitor the method, but I'm going to stop betting it for now.


This would be called the classic "back fitting"

if you worked a system up to 2/13 , then there is a period of time that you can test out your system before you deem it as usable...

belive me many have gone thru this ...

mike