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View Full Version : Should a public handicapper display their statistics?


zappedbythevicar
02-14-2016, 12:17 PM
the answer should be obvious but apparently it isn't

Stillriledup
02-14-2016, 12:41 PM
In the defense of certain popular handicappers, an ROI of 2.00 would be a win simply because of the followers deflating the prices on the picks. Even 1.95 is a win, but would be treated as a loss.

Another factor is that some public handicappers are instructed to release a pick every race, when they would skip a lot of races in real life. I do think there is some disingenuous nature to people releasing picks they're TOLD to release, but I'm not sure how you combat that. Maybe some public players could say 'this isn't a pick I'm betting with my own money' but they usually don't tell you if they're betting the race with their own funds or not.

I would like to see ROIs, if someone had the time and desire, they can track all public selectors picks and keep track, it doesn't seem like the cappers themselves are in any rush to do provide records of their successes and failures.

Milkshaker
02-14-2016, 12:58 PM
The Racing Times used to do it.

Sinner369
02-14-2016, 01:02 PM
They don't do it because 95% of the pickers' would be embarrassed by the results.

Stillriledup
02-14-2016, 01:26 PM
They don't do it because 95% of the pickers' would be embarrassed by the results.

But even the 5 pct who win don't do it. Serling could shut a lot of people up by posting his ROI, but I get his point that if he came in at 1.97 he would get clobbered even though 1.97 for him would be a win when you factor in the credit he gets by people deflating his prices.

ultracapper
02-14-2016, 01:28 PM
DRF shows the selectors stats at the top of their picks each day. It shows wins and ITM finishers of their top picks.

Tom
02-14-2016, 01:34 PM
the answer should be obvious but apparently it isn't

Obviously, it is NO.
Any jerk can do the work himself, unless he is lazy slug.
Perhaps you will be banned soon for trolling then you can spend your time learning how to handicap.

thaskalos
02-14-2016, 01:38 PM
If the public handicapper releases selections for every race on the card, then a ROI is useless...because it will always be in the negative. But if he releases "best bets" as well...then the ROI on those could be useful.

zappedbythevicar
02-14-2016, 01:40 PM
so we all know that most public handicappers in PRINTED EDITIONS are made days ahead before changes, scratches, weather conditions, bias, etc. which is factored into any judgments made about there statistics.

however when a public handicapper has the opportunity to appear on live tv, live simulcast feed, etc. in REAL TIME why not hold them to a higher degree when they have the optionality to ALTER their selections in real time based on bias, weather ,scratches etc and can clearly broadcast a continuous running total for all to see what those statistics are!!!!

zappedbythevicar
02-14-2016, 01:42 PM
Obviously, it is NO.
Any jerk can do the work himself, unless he is lazy slug.
Perhaps you will be banned soon for trolling then you can spend your time learning how to handicap.


73,259! is that a real statistic? i looked up troll and guess whose name i saw

Robert Fischer
02-14-2016, 01:45 PM
1) It does not matter what public handicapper's stats are

2) If a public handicapper existed that could demonstrate a significant range of profitable statistics, it would be a BAD thing, not a good thing for players.

johnhannibalsmith
02-14-2016, 01:47 PM
You may be the only person in the universe that gives nearly this much of a shit so no, it probably isn't necessary.

Robert Fischer
02-14-2016, 01:49 PM
A public handicapper's job has very little (perhaps nothing) to do with selection statistics.

zappedbythevicar
02-14-2016, 01:50 PM
1) It does not matter what public handicapper's stats are

2) If a public handicapper existed that could demonstrate a significant range of profitable statistics, it would be a BAD thing, not a good thing for players.


thats why WE ALL KNOW that the whole thing is a joke. If any of them were any good the last thing they would be doing is giving out their selections to anyone and everyone. THEY WOULD BE BETTING

"those who can DO those who can't teach"

thaskalos
02-14-2016, 01:54 PM
A public handicapper is in a can't-lose situation when he reports the ROI of his key selections. If the ROI is impressive...then the public handicapper can brag about his handicapping prowess. And if the ROI is lacking, then he could brag about his large following...whose bets on his wagers drive down the mutuel prices, thus making his selections unprofitable.

Robert Fischer
02-14-2016, 02:02 PM
thats why WE ALL KNOW that the whole thing is a joke. If any of them were any good the last thing they would be doing is giving out their selections to anyone and everyone. THEY WOULD BE BETTING

"those who can DO those who can't teach"

Actually, they are paid to help broadcast the sport for their boss. It isn't a handicapping contest.

zappedbythevicar
02-14-2016, 02:07 PM
Actually, they are paid to help broadcast the sport for their boss. It isn't a handicapping contest.

obviously thats not working as the sport continues its decline.
maybe the money could be better used elsewhere.
maybe if they actually hired a successful pro gambler and paid him more than he makes betting the handle would go through the roof as everyone tries to get down on his picks and people tell their friends and family and they all come to the track to make money

AND THERES THE CATCH 22!

classhandicapper
02-14-2016, 02:08 PM
I don't think ROI information has much use when we are talking about public handicappers. The most critical requirement for profiting is getting a good price. Public handicappers have no idea what price they will get at post time.

A slight improvement would be if they gave a minimum odds requirement along with their selections. Then you could track only the horses that were both selected and qualified on the odds requirement. But even that can be a problem because of late scratches and track condition changes.

I'm probably the only person on earth that thinks this, but I think public handicappers should put the most likely winner on top, 2nd most likely 2nd, 3rd most likely winner 3rd. If they get to include commentary, they can talk about possible values.

That way you wouldn't have to guess whether there's a 10-1 on top because he/she thinks the horse is the most likely winner or because it might be good value at 10-1.

If the horse goes off at 5-1 what are you supposed to think?

If you know the guy always put the most likely winner on top, 2nd most like winner 2nd, etc... then the decision making gets a lot easier when you actually see the prices.

That's the way Russ Harris used to do it years ago in the NY Daily News. I liked it better. But I guess some people just want some big winners on top to get people excited even if many of them wind up getting knocked down below fair value.

Robert Fischer
02-14-2016, 02:09 PM
obviously thats not working as the sport continues its decline.
maybe the money could be better used elsewhere.
maybe if they actually hired a successful pro gambler and paid him more than he makes betting the handle would go through the roof as everyone tries to get down on his picks and people tell their friends and family and they all come to the track to make money

AND THERES THE CATCH 22!

It's a parimutuel game.

If some jerk went on TV and pointed out half of the good overlays, that would be a bad thing.

ultracapper
02-14-2016, 02:12 PM
thats why WE ALL KNOW that the whole thing is a joke. If any of them were any good the last thing they would be doing is giving out their selections to anyone and everyone. THEY WOULD BE BETTING

"those who can DO those who can't teach"

Yeah, none of them are any good. They're all crap. You can always tell when somebody has let their issue take them over by the hyperbole they use.

thaskalos
02-14-2016, 02:16 PM
obviously thats not working as the sport continues its decline.
maybe the money could be better used elsewhere.
maybe if they actually hired a successful pro gambler and paid him more than he makes betting the handle would go through the roof as everyone tries to get down on his picks and people tell their friends and family and they all come to the track to make money

AND THERES THE CATCH 22!

At Arlington Park they hired M. Scott McMannis...whom many consider to be a "PROS' pro". Not only did McMannis handicap races...but he also ran a HANDICAPPING school...which was open to the fans. And yet, the business at Arlington declined just the same.

zappedbythevicar
02-14-2016, 02:22 PM
this is the best idea the tracks can come up with????

ZERO about
eliminating breakage
ZERO about
lowering takeout

and every gambler in the world has given up talking about these issues cause it aint gonna happen

so lets try to help the "customers" by hiring some "pros" to help them find winners because thats the real problem why we are losing customers. ITS BEAUSE OUR CUSTOMERS ARE ALL BAD GAMBLERS.

Stillriledup
02-14-2016, 02:22 PM
73,259! is that a real statistic? i looked up troll and guess whose name i saw

Wow a guy w 36 posts is unloading on Mr 73000.

:lol:

zappedbythevicar
02-14-2016, 02:27 PM
Wow a guy w 36 posts is unloading on Mr 73000.

:lol:

please don't poke the bear
i'm in enough trouble already

ultracapper
02-14-2016, 02:27 PM
this is the best idea the tracks can come up with????

ZERO about
eliminating breakage
ZERO about
lowering takeout

and every gambler in the world has given up talking about these issues cause it aint gonna happen

so lets try to help the "customers" by hiring some "pros" to help them find winners because thats the real problem why we are losing customers. ITS BEAUSE OUR CUSTOMERS ARE ALL BAD GAMBLERS.

And the reason there are 15 million people a day playing slot machines is because they're all winning. You really think winning and losing has anything to do with the games that people choose to gamble on? Open your eyes.

zappedbythevicar
02-14-2016, 02:32 PM
And the reason there are 15 million people a day playing slot machines is because they're all winning. You really think winning and losing has anything to do with the games that people choose to gamble on? Open your eyes.

i just hate watching this sport die with no hope on the horizon

ultracapper
02-14-2016, 02:32 PM
It's a tough fix, no doubt about it.

thaskalos
02-14-2016, 02:37 PM
i just hate watching this sport die with no hope on the horizon
And you figure that TLG is one of the main reasons that the sport is dying...so you've decided to dedicate your PA posting life to disparage him...right? :rolleyes:

Stillriledup
02-14-2016, 02:37 PM
please don't poke the bear
i'm in enough trouble already

You're in hot water for sure. Dig your way out!

Stillriledup
02-14-2016, 02:39 PM
And you figure that TLG is one of the main reasons that the sport is dying...so you've decided to dedicate your PA posting life to disparage him...right? :rolleyes:

Is he really disparaging Andy? Seems like he just wants to see an ROI, it's not the most outlandish ask.

ultracapper
02-14-2016, 02:43 PM
Is he really disparaging Andy? Seems like he just wants to see an ROI, it's not the most outlandish ask.

He' gone well beyond "just".

zappedbythevicar
02-14-2016, 03:47 PM
i dont think i disparaged him at all. if i did i am sorry that was not my intent. as i said multiple times i used him as a proxy for all the forecasters that dont show any statistics as to their prowess. if speaking eloquently about the races is the only criteria that matters than i am wrong.

there are tons of posts on here complaining about comments andy has made and also his using certain words to imply certain things. all i have said is if you pick horses publicly show your stats as many do.

zappedbythevicar
02-14-2016, 04:13 PM
its amazing how the andy thread went for 17 months called i am an andy serling fan but.... and my but (butt) was asking for statistics which i thought would help finally put an end to the discussion because it would answer the question of why someone would or wouldnt be a fan of his. great numbers would shut everyone up. in retrospect that was the least of everyones concern

castaway01
02-14-2016, 04:19 PM
its amazing how the andy thread went for 17 months called i am an andy serling fan but.... and my but (butt) was asking for statistics which i thought would help finally put an end to the discussion because it would answer the question of why someone would or wouldnt be a fan of his. great numbers would shut everyone up. in retrospect that was the least of everyones concern

If Andy gives good advice of what longshots to like and what favorites to avoid, or how the track is playing I could care less about his "numbers" because I can figure out how to bet the horses myself. I think he does this job in an excellent and entertaining manner, and a lot of other people do too. If you don't, mute the sound or don't watch him. It's pretty simple, isn't it?

whodoyoulike
02-14-2016, 04:24 PM
this is the best idea the tracks can come up with????

ZERO about
eliminating breakage
ZERO about
lowering takeout

and every gambler in the world has given up talking about these issues cause it aint gonna happen

so lets try to help the "customers" by hiring some "pros" to help them find winners because thats the real problem why we are losing customers. ITS BEAUSE OUR CUSTOMERS ARE ALL BAD GAMBLERS.

I think I get what you're really getting at which is some type of accountability but, you're going about it wrong. The only ROI which is important is when someone is evaluating companies trading on the stock markets. In horse racing it's more of did you end up with more than when you started.

I'm trying to remember how it was before live simulcasting if they even had on-air handicappers giving out selections versus just discussing the upcoming race. So, I think the addition of on-air handicappers probably was an attempt by tracks to boost interest, understanding of the game, handle etc.

I'm uncertain if it applies all of the time but, most are bad gamblers at least some of the time and others are bad all of the time.

And, I think your adage regarding "those who can DO etc." is incorrect mostly because not everyone can teach but, those who teach usually can DO it.

And, finally as I asked you in another thread .....

Would you really change your handicapped selection(s) just based upon what someone else has said and basically dismiss your own?

Instead of taking their opinion(s) and evaluating it with your own. Btw, your answer would provide to me a little bit more context regarding why you're going down this path.

whodoyoulike
02-14-2016, 04:26 PM
You're in hot water for sure. Dig your way out!

Shouldn't this be "swim" your way out otherwise he would never get out?

PaceAdvantage
02-14-2016, 04:34 PM
This is now beyond stupid, but hardly original.