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Football-horse420
02-13-2016, 02:15 PM
I have been handicapping horses for well over a year now and I seem to be missing something. I put 100 dollars a month into betting. I always bet with a past performances, I buy it a day in advance and really get into handicapping and look for things also before post time. I bet 10cent superfecta's usually 5 horse box bet, also bet quinellas, and show bets. At the end this really does not seem to be paying off if I'm lucky I brake even. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to put better bets together? What are my best bets to see improvement?
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!! Any books a newbie like me should read?

Thanks for any and all help!!

EMD4ME
02-13-2016, 02:28 PM
I have been handicapping horses for well over a year now and I seem to be missing something. I put 100 dollars a month into betting. I always bet with a past performances, I buy it a day in advance and really get into handicapping and look for things also before post time. I bet 10cent superfecta's usually 5 horse box bet, also bet quinellas, and show bets. At the end this really does not seem to be paying off if I'm lucky I brake even. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to put better bets together? What are my best bets to see improvement?
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!! Any books a newbie like me should read?

Thanks for any and all help!!

If there was a 10 horse field...

Would you make this bet?

"The 1,3,5,7 and 10" can not finish in the top 4. If they do, you die.

Yes or no?

Football-horse420
02-13-2016, 02:35 PM
Probably not , but do u have past performances??.. Haha

DRIVEWAY
02-13-2016, 02:46 PM
I have been handicapping horses for well over a year now and I seem to be missing something. I put 100 dollars a month into betting. I always bet with a past performances, I buy it a day in advance and really get into handicapping and look for things also before post time. I bet 10cent superfecta's usually 5 horse box bet, also bet quinellas, and show bets. At the end this really does not seem to be paying off if I'm lucky I brake even. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to put better bets together? What are my best bets to see improvement?
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!! Any books a newbie like me should read?

Thanks for any and all help!!

There are several individuals that supplement their living with their horseracing gambling. Check with Pandy, Joseph Schwartz and Raybo for appropriate ideas and reading material. I'm sure they will be glad to help you.

Good Luck

Football-horse420
02-13-2016, 04:21 PM
Hope I get some insight and some good advice on this.

ultracapper
02-13-2016, 04:29 PM
Hope you have a decent bankroll to start.

EMD4ME
02-13-2016, 04:42 PM
Probably not , but do u have past performances??.. Haha

Well, when you get 5 horse super boxes, that's exactly the bet you are making.

thaskalos
02-13-2016, 04:43 PM
I have been handicapping horses for well over a year now and I seem to be missing something. I put 100 dollars a month into betting. I always bet with a past performances, I buy it a day in advance and really get into handicapping and look for things also before post time. I bet 10cent superfecta's usually 5 horse box bet, also bet quinellas, and show bets. At the end this really does not seem to be paying off if I'm lucky I brake even. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to put better bets together? What are my best bets to see improvement?
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!! Any books a newbie like me should read?

Thanks for any and all help!!
Do you possess the sort of "specialized" knowledge which might be turned into an edge over your competition? Otherwise...seeking to profit in this game is an unrealistic expectation...IMO.

ultracapper
02-13-2016, 04:55 PM
19 years from now, if you work real hard, you'll start recognizing the holes in your game, and if you continue to work real hard, you may be able to intelligently address them and start making some hay. That's the story most of us can share with you.

thaskalos
02-13-2016, 05:11 PM
If there was a 10 horse field...

Would you make this bet?

"The 1,3,5,7 and 10" can not finish in the top 4. If they do, you die.

Yes or no?

If this is your qualifying rule for making a bet...then, how many bets do you expect to find?

Dave Schwartz
02-13-2016, 05:24 PM
19 years from now, if you work real hard, you'll start recognizing the holes in your game, and if you continue to work real hard, you may be able to intelligently address them and start making some hay. That's the story most of us can share with you.

... or you will be doing most of the same things you've always been doing wrong but with a slightly better (but still not good enough) result.

Imagine you and a friend are taking up golf. You spend your $100 per month on a couple of rounds (at a cheap golf course -LOL) and your friend decides to do that but also make a concerted effort to improve by reading books, watching videos. taking some practice and maybe even some lessons. While neither of you may be headed to the PGA tour, I would guess that the friend will do better because instead of just "playing" he is working to improve.

My experience indicates that improvement takes concerted effort as opposed to just "playing longer."

Just my opinion.

azeri98
02-13-2016, 05:29 PM
Forget the show bets, the 5 horse box is tough , if its a small field you can't make much money unless 2 longshots run 1-2.In a large field like emd4me said I only takes 1 horse to get in there that you don't have you will die a quick death, if you are just starting out try to pick the winner (win bet) and some exactors, its hard to pick one horse never mind all 4 in a super.If you are hell bent on playing supers , key 1or 2 horses with a few behind and then the "all button". Horses that are bombs tend to come 3rd or 4th more often than not for many reasons. Just read the Alvarado thread that just took place at Aqueduct, that's just one reason, bad jock riding hard, half decent jock giving up.

ultracapper
02-13-2016, 05:31 PM
... or you will be doing most of the same things you've always been doing wrong but with a slightly better (but still not good enough) result.

Imagine you and a friend are taking up golf. You spend your $100 per month on a couple of rounds (at a cheap golf course -LOL) and your friend decides to do that but also make a concerted effort to improve by reading books, watching videos. taking some practice and maybe even some lessons. While neither of you may be headed to the PGA tour, I would guess that the friend will do better because instead of just "playing" he is working to improve.

My experience indicates that improvement takes concerted effort as opposed to just "playing longer."

Just my opinion.

I think you've described "working hard".

Dave Schwartz
02-13-2016, 08:55 PM
Working hard... Maybe.

But it is like hitting a bucket of balls twice a week when you have bad mechanics. You just get better at the bad mechanics.

IMHO, one must get outside help.

EMD4ME
02-13-2016, 11:57 PM
If this is your qualifying rule for making a bet...then, how many bets do you expect to find?

I just want to make his mind work, that's all.

Believe me I box 5 horses in sups in big fields, sometimes. However, I prefer to play supers when I have 2 or 3 opinions in a race.

Example: 4 will win the pace battle. Throw the 179 out as they will chase the 4. Then I truly believe the 2 will suck up and maybe the 5 will suck up.

Key 4 1st and 2nd (weighed out, 70% to the 4 on top, 30% 2nd) with the 2 AND 5 hitting the super BUT the 179 must run out.

Then I'll play a 4 / 2 / 36810 /36810 and a 4 / 36810 / 2/ 3 6 8 10 for a bit less as I would to be right in my 2 main opinions and lose the bet because the 3rd opinion was wrong.

zico20
02-14-2016, 12:11 AM
I just want to make his mind work, that's all.

Believe me I box 5 horses in sups in big fields, sometimes. However, I prefer to play supers when I have 2 or 3 opinions in a race.

Example: 4 will win the pace battle. Throw the 179 out as they will chase the 4. Then I truly believe the 2 will suck up and maybe the 5 will suck up.

Key 4 1st and 2nd (weighed out, 70% to the 4 on top, 30% 2nd) with the 2 AND 5 hitting the super BUT the 179 must run out.

Then I'll play a 4 / 2 / 36810 /36810 and a 4 / 36810 / 2/ 3 6 8 10 for a bit less as I would to be right in my 2 main opinions and lose the bet because the 3rd opinion was wrong.

Yes, this is a very solid way to play supers. Great advice!! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Robert Fischer
02-14-2016, 12:17 AM
good stuff EMD4ME


Original poster has to remember that with a Superfecta, tracks take out 25% of the money before the race is even run.
You are competing with every other horseplayer to split up 75% of what you started with!

You had better feel that you know way more than the public about that race and how you will structure that opinion through the 4 finishing positions, if you want any chance to break even or get ahead.

EMD4ME
02-14-2016, 12:24 AM
I have been handicapping horses for well over a year now and I seem to be missing something. I put 100 dollars a month into betting. I always bet with a past performances, I buy it a day in advance and really get into handicapping and look for things also before post time. I bet 10cent superfecta's usually 5 horse box bet, also bet quinellas, and show bets. At the end this really does not seem to be paying off if I'm lucky I brake even. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to put better bets together? What are my best bets to see improvement?
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!! Any books a newbie like me should read?

Thanks for any and all help!!

2nd pice of advice....

Repeat after me....

The only time (in the US) that you will ever and I mean EVER play quinellas is if you are down to your last $2.92, you're able to find and .8 cent voucher on the floor AND you're able to play $1 Quinella BoX because you actually like 3 horses.

Other than that, there is ZERO reason to ever play a quinella.

Unless, of course, you're playing hong kong or 20 horse fields in japan.



Show....that's a different conversation. Only time I ever play to show is

1) against a bridge jumping horse.
2) As part of a 3-6 race parlay sequence.

Bigadam119
02-14-2016, 02:27 AM
I posted a similar thread to the board back in September, got a ton of awesome advice. One that really stuck with me was from Ultracapper. I have posted it below. I used is as a starting point and have had a few profitable days since.

This running line is an example for a 6f race with a field of 12.

1st call 7th by 4 1/2
2nd call 8th by 5
3rd call 6th by 6
Finish 4th by 6 1/2

The 1st call is after 1/4 mile, the 2nd is after a half mile, the 3rd call is after 5/8th (or at the 1/8th pole, one furlong from the finish line), and the 4th call is the finish line. In this example, the horse improved 2 positions between the 1/4 pole (2nd call) and the 1/8 pole (3rd call, or what we call the "stretch call"). He also improved 2 positions between the 1/8 pole and the finish. Look for horses that improve 2 positions either between the 2nd and 3rd call, or between the 3rd call and finish (In this example, the horse improved 2 positions between each of those calls), and at that call that the horse improved 2 positions or more, he must be in the first half of the field. Meaning in a 12 horse field, he must be in 6th place or better (In this example, the horse again qualifies at both intervals).

In order to put your $5 across the board on a horse, he must improve at least 2 positions in either one of those calls, be in the top half of the field at the call in which he improved 2 or more positions, MUST NEVER BE MORE THAN 8 LENGTHS BEHIND THE LEADER, and must be 5/1 or higher. If you stick to this, you're going to cash some tickets, and some of them can be pretty good. Don't be shy if the horse is 10/1 or 12/1 or even 15/1, as the place and show payoffs on horses in those price ranges can be very rewarding. What you're looking for is horses that are moving forward in the field at competitive times of the race. The lengths behind aren't that important, as long as the horse isn't too far behind, and 8 lengths is about as far back as you want to be anytime in most races.

Remember, this is extremely rudimentary stuff. I've hardly given you the map to the Holy Grail here. But there are some things here that you're going to focus on that will, one day, be some of the real good tools in your handicapping tool box.

Oracle
02-14-2016, 09:50 AM
With a $100 per month bankroll, I would recommend sticking with win wagers and exactas and try to build and learn.

Superfectas are highly advanced wagers for a newer player with a limited bankroll.

A win key and an exacta key on a non-favored horse would be a place I would recommend starting.

Good Luck!

raybo
02-14-2016, 10:43 AM
As others have said, dump the 5 horse box superfectas. If you can't key less than 5 horses to win, then your handicapping needs much work. If your top 3 win contenders don't win at least 60% of the time (preferably higher), then your handicapping needs serious help. Sure, there are times when 5 horses on the win line might be ok, big races with big fields and big pools, etc., but generally, boxing 5 horses in normal sized races and pools costs too much over the long term. Also, only going 5 horses deep on the 3rd and 4th positions, in larger fields, is probably a horse or two shy on coverage (almost any horse in the field can finish 3rd or 4th just due to the running dynamics of the race.

Show bets, without parlaying, is almost guaranteed to lose money long term.

Quinellas, IMO, should be replaced with keyed exactas, with at least one of the two positions being only horses that are not in the top 3 on the tote at post time. Remember, many, many players will box, or otherwise cover the top 3 horses on the tote in exactas, and the aggregate payoffs will be lower than you need to profit over time.

If you want to start improving, concentrate on win and win/place - exacta handicapping. Honing those skills will open up the other bet types to you in the future.

formula_2002
02-14-2016, 12:10 PM
I have been handicapping horses for well over a year now and I seem to be missing something. I put 100 dollars a month into betting. I always bet with a past performances, I buy it a day in advance and really get into handicapping and look for things also before post time. I bet 10cent superfecta's usually 5 horse box bet, also bet quinellas, and show bets. At the end this really does not seem to be paying off if I'm lucky I brake even. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to put better bets together? What are my best bets to see improvement?
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!! Any books a newbie like me should read?

Thanks for any and all help!!

first thing you need to do is stop betting.
next test your play on say 200 races.
if you show a profit in 200 races, try doing it again.
if you still show a profit call me :)

one thing further, if you can not show a flat bet profit in the win pool, you probably can not win over a long number of races

davew
02-14-2016, 12:27 PM
Do you keep records of your bets?
Do you review the horses that beat you out of your bet when you lose?

When you bet a dime superfecta 5 horse box, you are saying any of those 5 can win, and the other 4 will hold the next 3 spots.

I suggest to start betting those 5 horses $2 to win on each - no other bets in the race. You are still betting that one of your 5 will win, and other places will not matter. Your cashes will not be as big, but your percentage cashes will be higher.

After some practice, you will be able to start eliminating some of these horses and also some of the races from your bets. For example you have 3 relatively equal horses you really like to win - at AQU in a 7 horse field their odds may be 3/2, 9/5, 5/2 - at GP in a 12 horse field their odds may be 7/2, 5/1, 9/1.

I would pass one of these races and bet the other. Risking a bet to cash a ticket that breaks even, is not a good idea. You have probably been doing a very similar thing with a 5 horse superfecta boxes.

Football-horse420
02-15-2016, 01:17 PM
Thanks so much everyone for all this awesome feedback you are giving me. I always go back and review the race win or after getting beat , I review to see who did what and how it all unfolded so I can better point things out the next time.
I guess what everyone is telling me is I should go with the basics and just work with win bets and win place bets and exacta/ and exacta boxes???
Any books a newbie like me should read???

Thanks for all this awesome feedback!!!

thaskalos
02-15-2016, 01:35 PM
Any books a newbie like me should read???



Sure!

http://www.amazon.com/Handicapping-101-Finding-Horses-Making/dp/0972640177/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1455561247&sr=1-1&keywords=brad+free

http://www.amazon.com/Winning-Horseplayer-Revolutionary-Thoroughbred-Handicapping/dp/0395343925/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1455561290&sr=1-3&keywords=the+winning+horseplayer

stu
02-15-2016, 01:35 PM
Any books a newbie like me should read???


You are on the right track by wanting to learn more by reading.

I recommend that you take a month off and spend the $100 on some the many handicapping books if your local library doesn't have any.

I recommend starting with the following since your goal is make money:

http://www.amazon.ca/Money-Secrets-At-The-Racetrack/dp/094532202X/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top?ie=UTF8

formula_2002
02-15-2016, 02:00 PM
Thanks so much everyone for all this awesome feedback you are giving me. I always go back and review the race win or after getting beat , I review to see who did what and how it all unfolded so I can better point things out the next time.
I guess what everyone is telling me is I should go with the basics and just work with win bets and win place bets and exacta/ and exacta boxes???
Any books a newbie like me should read???

Thanks for all this awesome feedback!!!
B Fabricand "Horse Sense"..Everything you need to know to analyze your betting dollars.

raybo
02-15-2016, 02:23 PM
I guess what everyone is telling me is I should go with the basics and just work with win bets and win place bets and exacta/ and exacta boxes???




Yes, I think that is the crux of what most here are telling you. The basics must be mastered, or at least competently understood, before moving to the more esoteric skills. The projected winner is extremely important, regardless of where your play evolves to, in that the projected winner must first be analyzed in order to start the seeking of "value" in individual races. If, for example, the projected winner is very low priced, then you must decide if you can get value by using him/her in combination with other, more higher priced horses, to obtain value in the bet. Can that projected winner be bet against, logically? Are there others that have better prices while offering nearly the same winning probability? Can you make a strong case for any of those others to win the race based on how the race might unfold? Can you use the low priced projected winner as a saver for a more potentially profitable wager that does not include that projected winner?

So, ascertaining the projected winner doesn't mean that you have to bet that horse to win, and it doesn't mean that you must bet against it winning. But, it does mean that you must start with that horse in order to know how to properly approach betting the race, or if you should simply pass the race entirely, and save your money for another, more potentially profitable opportunity.

Dave Schwartz
02-15-2016, 02:53 PM
B Fabricand "Horse Sense"..Everything you need to know to analyze your betting dollars.

IMHO, that is very outdated.

The entire concept may very well have been faulty to begin with. In fact, a friend from many years ago who attempted to write a program found that there were actually rules that were in contradiction.

At the very least, the odds table-while a wonderful work for its time-is drastically out of date.

Track Phantom
02-15-2016, 02:55 PM
Horse racing is similar to golf in many ways. I've played with guys that can drive it 320 yards but have no iron game and three-putt every green. When we go to the range, you guessed it, they spend all their time crushing it with their driver.

I would say handicapping is you off the tee. Discipline is you from the fairway to the green. Putting, of course, is your wagering. All three are part of the game but require different skill sets.

When you're looking at a race, the first thing you should ask yourself is "who is the separator in this race". Which horse or horses can eliminate much of your competition, thus enhancing your payout. For the most part, when you watch TVG, they hone in on low priced runners and exclude most everything else. If you find yourself with this mentality, quit. The game is almost solely about finding value that others overlook. Grinding out $22 profits off of $12 bets will eliminate your bankroll quickly.

Second, with such a small bankroll, you have to get the most bang for your buck. $100 per month is nearly impossible to win with betting exotics unless you get very lucky early on. With $100, I would find a few races where I think the favorite can be beat (like today's Southwest Stakes, hate Collected in there, good race to find value). I may bet something like $3 win on a runner and $1 exacta over and under 2 or 3 others.

There is no magic formula. You can enhance your approach by reading some of the many well-written, informative books and articles that are out there.

Finally, ask yourself what your goal is by playing this game. Your approach would be significantly different if you're trying to profit over the long haul vs hitting something huge on any given day. That $100, at the end of the month, while likely gone, should have been worth the investment and given you and outside chance at something significant (or at least kept you in the game).

thaskalos
02-15-2016, 02:58 PM
IMO...Fabricand's Horse Sense is one of the two worst books that a beginning horseplayer can pick up and read. The other one is Andy Beyer's Picking Winners.

Ghostzapper04
02-15-2016, 02:59 PM
Get out of the habit of making the same bets over and over. A 5 horse super box is only the right bet in a few situations. Learn how to leverage your best opinions by utilizing the entire betting menu.

TurfRuler
02-15-2016, 04:34 PM
There used to be an angle:

Horse after seven days, runs again today
Horse scratched from last race, runs again today
Horse on Lasix for the first time, runs again today
Horse runs a fast first quarter, second quarter…., runs again today
Horse runs first every fraction, runs again today
Horse runs off a 30-day, 60-day, 90-day layoff, runs again today
Horse makes a multiple length bid/move and fails, runs again today
Horse runs second in last race, runs again today
Pace makes the race, runs again today
Horse has the highest speed rating in last race, runs again today
Horse has highest average speed rating, runs again today
Horse has turf breeding, a mudder a dirt pedigree, runs again today
Horse runs 1, 2nd, 3rd after layoff, runs again today
Horse has a trainer change, runs again today
Horse has a jockey change, runs again today
Horse likes the racetrack (horses for courses), runs again today
Horse has a surface change, turf to dirt, dirt to turf, runs again today
Horse shorten distance in today’s race, runs again today
Horse stretches out from last race, runs again today;

Thaskalos and the others at Pace have great information for you but his quote is a greater key than any of the others: “Do you possess the sort of "specialized" knowledge which might be turned into an edge over your competition? Otherwise...seeking to profit in this game is an unrealistic expectation...IMO.”

Only by seeking will you find that “specialized” knowledge; all of the other wagering methods are tried and true but no longer valid for winning every race or profitability.

formula_2002
02-15-2016, 05:02 PM
IMHO, that is very outdated.

The entire concept may very well have been faulty to begin with. In fact, a friend from many years ago who attempted to write a program found that there were actually rules that were in contradiction.

At the very least, the odds table-while a wonderful work for its time-is drastically out of date.

Dave, to be clear, I reference the math analysis of the concept.
I feel he may have used too few races for the analysis, but his approach to determining the confidence levels is the clearest I have come across.

I would appreciate a reference to the latest odds table.
Long to short odds bias still viable?

formula_2002
02-15-2016, 05:17 PM
IMO...Fabricand's Horse Sense is one of the two worst books that a beginning horseplayer can pick up and read. The other one is Andy Beyer's Picking Winners.


Oh my, you just sucked the breath out of me. :)

You're defaming my idol :)

The Math of Fabricand's work is inline with many of the studies in "Efficiency of Race Track Markets". The book includes Fabricand as a reference.

With respect to him and his family I include:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9502E5D71E3AF933A25756C0A96F9C8B 63

ReplayRandall
02-15-2016, 06:05 PM
Oh my, you just sucked the breath out of me. :)

You're defaming my idol :)

The Math of Fabricand's work is inline with many of the studies in "Efficiency of Race Track Markets". The book includes Fabricand as a reference.

With respect to him and his family I include:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9502E5D71E3AF933A25756C0A96F9C8B 63

Thask said, "a beginning horseplayer" would have problems with the books. Are you a beginner Formula, or are you trying to just act like one? I'll bet you don't even know who Fabricand's mentor was.......

Dave Schwartz
02-15-2016, 07:05 PM
I would appreciate a reference to the latest odds table.
Long to short odds bias still viable?

Not to the extent that it was back in his time.

Remember when the odds-on horses were almost break even? Not any more.

I have posted the complete odds table from my book, Percentages & Probabilities (http://store.pacemakestherace.com/percentages-probabilities/) a number of times.

I'll see if I can find it again.

green80
02-15-2016, 07:19 PM
With a $100 bankroll you need to stick to making $2 win bets until your bankroll increases, then never bet more than 2% of your bankroll. If you tap out you need to come up with another method to select your horses.

formula_2002
02-15-2016, 07:30 PM
Thask said, "a beginning horseplayer" would have problems with the books. Are you a beginner Formula, or are you trying to just act like one? I'll bet you don't even know who Fabricand's mentor was.......

I don't agree, its a perfect book for a beginner.

Mentor?, He never mentioned it to me in my single correspondence with him.
that's at least one bet you win :)

Cratos
02-15-2016, 07:43 PM
B Fabricand "Horse Sense"..Everything you need to know to analyze your betting dollars.
Don't you think Fabricand's attempt to extrapolate the calculus of economic perfect competition to horserace handicapping for efficiency is far fetched?

formula_2002
02-15-2016, 09:10 PM
Don't you think Fabricand's attempt to extrapolate the calculus of economic perfect competition to horserace handicapping for efficiency is far fetched?

His book is "A Rigorous Application Of Mathematical Methods to Successful Betting At The Track"

I think if a betting system satisfies the mathematical requirements clearly outlined in his book, then its a bet, if not its NO Bet.
I would appreciate any paper you can post that would provide the same clarity of math and data to disprove his claim.

Tall One
02-15-2016, 09:56 PM
We've gone from "Handicapping 101" and "The Winning Horseplayer" to a guide for "rigorous mathematic applications in calculus" for a player wanting to start with win bets and exactas.. :D

<--- Had to look up "extropolate" in the Webster.. :ThmbUp:

Cratos
02-15-2016, 10:07 PM
His book is "A Rigorous Application Of Mathematical Methods to Successful Betting At The Track"

I think if a betting system satisfies the mathematical requirements clearly outlined in his book, then its a bet, if not its NO Bet.
I would appreciate any paper you can post that would provide the same clarity of math and data to disprove his claim.
You are now asking for a critique of Fabricand's wagering methodology as oppose to a critique of the assertion of "efficiency".

Honestly I am not sure if I can find the reference you requested because of the time it might take and the trials needed it to prove/disprove the methodology.

However I think we are straying into academia which is away from this thread's topic.

ultracapper
02-15-2016, 10:15 PM
We've gone from "Handicapping 101" and "The Winning Horseplayer" to a guide for "rigorous mathematic applications in calculus" for a player wanting to start with win bets and exactas.. :D

<--- Had to look up "extropolate" in the Webster.. :ThmbUp:

OMG!!! One of the best uses of the word extrapolate ever was in the 1992 Presidential debates between BClinton, GBush the elder, and Ross Perot. Clinton kept to the line that he had balanced the Arkansas budget 7 of the 8 years he was governor, and he would do the same with the Federal budget. The moderator asked Perot what he thought of that, and Perot said, "It's meaningless. Doesn't apply." The moderator looked at him quizzically and incredulously said, "What do you mean it doesn't apply?" Perot, in that high pitched, hillbilly drawl said, "It's like , if I can run a corner market, we can therefore extrapolate I can run WalMart. See? Doesn't apply". I remember the crowd laughing for about 2 minutes. They wouldn't settle down.

formula_2002
02-15-2016, 10:22 PM
We've gone from "Handicapping 101" and "The Winning Horseplayer" to a guide for "rigorous mathematic applications in calculus" for a player wanting to start with win bets and exactas.. :D

<--- Had to look up "extropolate" in the Webster.. :ThmbUp:

it's not really all that bad.. :)

formula_2002
02-15-2016, 10:28 PM
You are now asking for a critique of Fabricand's wagering methodology as oppose to a critique of the assertion of "efficiency".

Honestly I am not sure if I can find the reference you requested because of the time it might take and the trials needed it to prove/disprove the methodology.

However I think we are straying into academia which is away from this thread's topic.

It's not really all that deep.
Let me put it to you another way. Exactly what chapter and page number of his book do you disagree with the most.

Tall One
02-15-2016, 10:46 PM
it's not really all that bad.. :)


No doubt, formula. But, I see rigorous, and calculus in a sentence, I freak out.

For the record, I admire your and cratos' obvious knowledge that carries beyond the screen here.

Ultra, I do remember that, now, but in '92, I was a junior in high school with more "important" things on my mind.. :cool:

Cratos
02-15-2016, 10:50 PM
It's not really all that deep.
Let me put it to you another way. Exactly what chapter and page number of his book do you disagree with the most.
What I disagree with is the notion of "efficiency" which I initially cited.
I don't know what you mean by "not that deep" because math proofs or contradictions are "deep".
However I yet to see you explain "Fabricand efficiency" in his mathematical wagering model.

formula_2002
02-16-2016, 12:39 AM
What I disagree with is the notion of "efficiency" which I initially cited.
I don't know what you mean by "not that deep" because math proofs or contradictions are "deep".
However I yet to see you explain "Fabricand efficiency" in his mathematical wagering model.

to be clear, do you disagree that horses win according to their final real dollar odds, with a short to long odds bias?

HalvOnHorseracing
02-16-2016, 09:38 AM
I have been handicapping horses for well over a year now and I seem to be missing something. I put 100 dollars a month into betting. I always bet with a past performances, I buy it a day in advance and really get into handicapping and look for things also before post time. I bet 10cent superfecta's usually 5 horse box bet, also bet quinellas, and show bets. At the end this really does not seem to be paying off if I'm lucky I brake even. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to put better bets together? What are my best bets to see improvement?
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!! Any books a newbie like me should read?

Thanks for any and all help!!

Some good advice in the thread. A couple of additional points. Boxing anything suggests each horse has an equal chance of finishing in a respective position. This is obviously not true, but moreover horses that have low probability of winning probably have a substantially higher chance of finishing fourth, and I've often pointed out horseplayers are less accurate as they try to predict the highest probability horse for a position other than win. If you have a horse with a (true) 50% chance of winning, putting it in 4th is just gambling that something chaotic will happen. In a 10 horse field there are just over 5,000 super combinations. You have 120 of them covered (2.4%) in a 5-horse box and I'm guessing you lose a lot of bets because one of the "unlikely" horses sneaks into third or fourth. The first obvious point is that you aren't really bankrolled for superfectas. That's fine if you see the $100 the same way some of us see buying a ticket to a professional football game. We have a great time and it's worth the expense, but at the end of the game the money you spent is gone and it ain't coming back. The second obvious point is that you are not covering your 2.4% of the total combinations in the most efficient way. For example in a 10-horse field the ticket ABC/ABC/ABCDEF/ALL costs only slightly more than your five horse box but essentially takes the some of the sweat out of third and all of it out of fourth. Depending on how sure you are about one of the horses, you might play A/BCE/ALL/ALL. Or AB/AB/ABCDEFG/ALL. You see the point. In other words, adjust your bet to reflect how sure you are about the first two positions.

That being said, betting the more complicated combination bets right out of the gate seems a bit too ambitious. The best pools (based on take and complexity) are usually win and exacta. Your betting strategies look more like, I want to reduce losing bets, as opposed to maximizing profit, and you have to hit high percentages. Four show bets cost $8. If you hit three of them, and they pay $2.60 each, you are a 20 cent loser. And putting price horses in third is only effective if they are overlayed and the two pool favorites don't come in. I've also suggested that a quinella will pay around half the exacta when the favorite wins, but will pay more than half if the longer price wins. In other words, most of the time a $1 exacta box costs the same as a $2 quinella and usually pays the same or better.

My best advice. Find horses that are overlayed, bet them to win and play them in an exacta or two. As your bankroll grows, look at larger combination bets.

whodoyoulike
02-16-2016, 07:28 PM
Some good advice in the thread. A couple of additional points. Boxing anything suggests each horse has an equal chance of finishing in a respective position. This is obviously not true, ...

My best advice. Find horses that are overlayed, bet them to win and play them in an exacta or two. As your bankroll grows, look at larger combination bets.

This post is very well thought out and presented. Since I don't play verticals other than an occasional exacta or trifecta when you discuss superfecta betting how do you calculate the number of permutations?

If it's not too much trouble?

I.e., "For example in a 10-horse field the ticket :1: ABC/ABC/ABCDEF/ALL costs only slightly more than your five horse box but essentially takes the some of the sweat out of third and all of it out of fourth. Depending on how sure you are about one of the horses, you might play :2: A/BCE/ALL/ALL. Or :3: AB/AB/ABCDEFG/ALL."

Thanks for any help.

raybo
02-16-2016, 07:52 PM
This post is very well thought out and presented. Since I don't play verticals other than an occasional exacta or trifecta when you discuss superfecta betting how do you calculate the number of permutations?

If it's not too much trouble?

I.e., "For example in a 10-horse field the ticket :1: ABC/ABC/ABCDEF/ALL costs only slightly more than your five horse box but essentially takes the some of the sweat out of third and all of it out of fourth. Depending on how sure you are about one of the horses, you might play :2: A/BCE/ALL/ALL. Or :3: AB/AB/ABCDEFG/ALL."

Thanks for any help.

If you are using a box wheel structure, where every horse on the above betting lines are carried down to the lower lines, it's very easy to figure the number of combinations, with a pencil and paper.

Write your ticket down on paper, like this:

AB
ABC
ABCDE
ABCDEFG

Now, draw a straight line through the first combination, which would be the highlighted numbers below:

AB
ABC
ABCDE
ABCDEFG

Now, start with the bottom row, and to the right of that row, add up the horses to the right of the highlighted horse, including the highlighted horse.

The 4th line would total 4 horses (DEFG)

Now, do the same for the 3rd row, the total number of horses on that line would be 3 (CDE).

Do the same for the 2nd row, the total would be 2 (BC)

Now, total all the horses on the top line, that total would be 2 (AB).

Now multiply all 4 of the line totals: 4x3x2x2 = 48 . There are 48 combinations in that ticket structure.

If you do not use this kind of structure (box wheel), there are several free ticket calculators on line.

EMD4ME
02-16-2016, 08:27 PM
Thanks so much everyone for all this awesome feedback you are giving me. I always go back and review the race win or after getting beat , I review to see who did what and how it all unfolded so I can better point things out the next time.
I guess what everyone is telling me is I should go with the basics and just work with win bets and win place bets and exacta/ and exacta boxes???
Any books a newbie like me should read???

Thanks for all this awesome feedback!!!

I think a good excercise for you, would be to pick a future race, study it and discuss on here who you like and why.

Then discuss how to properly bet the race with a $100 bankroll.

Just the interaction with others will teach you a lot, besides the mental excercise between the left side of your brain and the right side of your brain.

whodoyoulike
02-16-2016, 09:28 PM
If you are using a box wheel structure, where every horse on the above betting lines are carried down to the lower lines, it's very easy to figure the number of combinations, with a pencil and paper.

Write your ticket down on paper, like this:

AB
ABC
ABCDE
ABCDEFG

Now, draw a straight line through the first combination, which would be the highlighted numbers below: ...

If you do not use this kind of structure (box wheel), there are several free ticket calculators on line.

Thanks Raybo. It's difficult for me to grasp the betting structure given the bets provided in a 10 or whatever size horse field.

Using example :1:

ABC
ABC
ABCDEF
ABCDEFGHIJ

Is it 5x4x3x3 = 180?

Using example :3:

AB
AB
ABCDEFG
ABCDEFGHIJ

Is it 4x6x2x2 = 96?

Using example :2:

A
BCE
ABCDEFGHIJ
ABCDEFGHIJ

You will need an online calculator?

EMD4ME
02-16-2016, 09:36 PM
Thanks Raybo. It's difficult for me to grasp the betting structure given the bets provided in a 10 or whatever size horse field.

Using example :1:

ABC
ABC
ABCDEF
ABCDEFGHIJ

Is it 5x4x3x3 = 180?

Using example :3:

AB
AB
ABCDEFG
ABCDEFGHIJ

Is it 4x6x2x2 = 96?

Using example :2:

A
BCE
ABCDEFGHIJ
ABCDEFGHIJ

You will need an online calculator?

How long have you been playing horses? For all your wise remarks (and snide comments to me), I thought you were well past elementary components of this game.

whodoyoulike
02-16-2016, 09:44 PM
How long have you been playing horses? For all your wise remarks (and snide comments to me), I thought you were well past elementary components of this game.

Why don't you first read and understand before commenting if that's even possible?

I had stated that I don't make these type of vertical bets except exacta and trifecta. But, I can see you just want to make some sort of response.

EMD4ME
02-16-2016, 09:54 PM
Why don't you first read and understand before commenting if that's even possible?

I had stated that I don't make these type of vertical bets except exacta and trifecta. But, I can see you just want to make some sort of response.

I was just shocked that's all. No offense intented.

whodoyoulike
02-16-2016, 10:55 PM
I was just shocked that's all. No offense intented.

How about if you clearly explain the permutation calculations which I've noted in post #54 for each of the three HalvOnHorseracing examples since you've mentioned in other threads that you've made numerous superfecta wagers?

I'm just curious how they are calculated and not offended. It's just that you always seem to have a comment without really saying anything.

Baron Star Gregg
02-17-2016, 02:29 AM
My advice (others obviously vary) is start with Brad Free's Handicapping 101. Read it cover to cover, read it again then put it down. Play some races and keep records of what you've done. (I would recommend that you concentrate on a single track.) Now read Handicapping 101 again then buy "Bet With the Best." Bet with the Best presents different subjects/points of view from various authors. Read one chapter at a time to digest it. If you find a chapter that piques your interest or exposes a weakness in your play, study it further by purchasing another title by the author of that chapter. Somewhere along the way I believe you MUST buy Andy Beyer's book on his speed figures. You need to understand Beyer numbers. By the time you've completed this process you should have a good idea of your strengths and weaknesses and how to progress.

HalvOnHorseracing
02-17-2016, 01:11 PM
Thanks Raybo. It's difficult for me to grasp the betting structure given the bets provided in a 10 or whatever size horse field.

Using example :1:

ABC
ABC
ABCDEF
ABCDEFGHIJ

Is it 5x4x3x3 = 180?

Using example :3:

AB
AB
ABCDEFG
ABCDEFGHIJ

Is it 4x6x2x2 = 96?

Using example :2:

A
BCE
ABCDEFGHIJ
ABCDEFGHIJ

You will need an online calculator?

I remember being at Tampa Bay and three inexperienced guys sitting behind me were trying to figure out how much a four horse tri box cost. After a few minutes I decided to help and explained you take all the horses that could win (4), subtract one and that gives you the horses that can place (3), subtract one from that and that gives you the horses that can show (2). Multiply them 4X3X2 and you get the total combinations. They seemed pretty amazed.

I've been doing it long enough that I can do it in my head pretty quickly, but if you are shakey, DRF Formulator has a ticket maker function and as has been said, there on other online calculators.

Same type of calculation for superfectas. So ABC/ABC/ABCDEF/ABCDEFGHIJ means 3 horses can win the race, if one of them wins it can't finish second so only 2 horses can finish second. Say A wins, B places, that means neither can finish third or fourth, so there are only 4 possible fourth place finishers, and by the same logic 7 fourth place finishers. So the total combos are 3X2X4X7 = 168

AB/AB/ABCDEFG/ABCDEFGHIJ is 2X1X5X7 = 70 Once A and B hit the top two spots, they can't hit the third or fourth spot. In fact the more appropriate ticket is AB/AB/CDEFG/CDEFGHIJ, then the arithmetic is obvious.

A/BCE/ABCDEFGHIJ/ABCDEFGHIJ is 1X3X8X7 = 168 Same with this combination. The appropriate ticket is A/BCE/BCDEFGHIJ/BCDEFGHIJ to make the arithmetic obvious.

You can see the pattern. Once you assume a horse hits a respective hole, you subtract the horse from any other hole.

whodoyoulike
02-17-2016, 04:27 PM
...
Same type of calculation for superfectas. So ABC/ABC/ABCDEF/ABCDEFGHIJ means 3 horses can win the race, if one of them wins it can't finish second so only 2 horses can finish second. Say A wins, B places, that means neither can finish third or fourth, so there are only 4 possible fourth place finishers, and by the same logic 7 fourth place finishers. So the total combos are 3X2X4X7 = 168

AB/AB/ABCDEFG/ABCDEFGHIJ is 2X1X5X7 = 70 Once A and B hit the top two spots, they can't hit the third or fourth spot. In fact the more appropriate ticket is AB/AB/CDEFG/CDEFGHIJ, then the arithmetic is obvious.

A/BCE/ABCDEFGHIJ/ABCDEFGHIJ is 1X3X8X7 = 168 Same with this combination. The appropriate ticket is A/BCE/BCDEFGHIJ/BCDEFGHIJ to make the arithmetic obvious.

You can see the pattern. Once you assume a horse hits a respective hole, you subtract the horse from any other hole.


Thanks, after posting last night I reviewed your examples and just realized it was similar to boxing exacta and tri's with the added calculation step. Which is why after I viewed it from the bold part which you mentioned in the above, it became obvious as you stated. Including the horses when they couldn't be part of the win or place etc., initially through me off.

Now, this is partly off the topic but, I think is still related. I usually like to know what a bet is going to cost me (and thanks again) and approx. how much will be the payout to determine whether a bet is worth it. Again, I do play exacta or tri's just not very often anymore. The exacta payouts are provided by the tote board and my estimate of tri's is basically looking at the exacta and estimating that it's payout will be higher depending on the third place finishing odds but basically it will pay greater than the exacta.

Do you or anyone else reading this post have a good estimate for superfecta payouts since expected tri payouts are not provided?

HalvOnHorseracing
02-17-2016, 04:43 PM
Thanks, after posting last night I reviewed your examples and just realized it was similar to boxing exacta and tri's with the added calculation step. Which is why after I viewed it from the bold part which you mentioned in the above, it became obvious as you stated. Including the horses when they couldn't be part of the win or place etc., initially through me off.

Now, this is partly off the topic but, I think is still related. I usually like to know what a bet is going to cost me (and thanks again) and approx. how much will be the payout to determine whether a bet is worth it. Again, I do play exacta or tri's just not very often anymore. The exacta payouts are provided by the tote board and my estimate of tri's is basically looking at the exacta and estimating that it's payout will be higher depending on the third place finishing odds but basically it will pay greater than the exacta.

Do you or anyone else reading this post have a good estimate for superfecta payouts since expected tri payouts are not provided?

I'm not a super player, and I wouldn't have an offhanded idea of how you calculate an honest pay for a super. It's especially not an attractive bet for me because of the 10 cent minimum. Anecdotally, based on the percentages it's pretty clear supers with the top choices are probably going to underpay, and the low probability supers will overpay, usually by quite a bit. But I'd also be interested in hearing other thoughts on betting supers. Not that I'm thinking about betting them, but I'm going to have to do the research for my book anyway.

whodoyoulike
02-17-2016, 05:11 PM
Thanks, I might end up dabbling in it to see how it goes just haven't thought about a good strategy for attacking it. Since, my interest has been piqued only since yesterday.

EMD4ME
02-17-2016, 08:45 PM
I'm not a super player, and I wouldn't have an offhanded idea of how you calculate an honest pay for a super. It's especially not an attractive bet for me because of the 10 cent minimum. Anecdotally, based on the percentages it's pretty clear supers with the top choices are probably going to underpay, and the low probability supers will overpay, usually by quite a bit. But I'd also be interested in hearing other thoughts on betting supers. Not that I'm thinking about betting them, but I'm going to have to do the research for my book anyway.

My thoughts:

The .10 has it's pros and cons. Con-obviously more people can "get in" for less and lower larger payouts.

One pro-it gives you the opportunity to weigh out your opinions. If I am 100% right, I can hit the sup for $X dollars. If 1 of my opinions is wrong, I can hit it for 40% of X.

I can cover for a dime on bomb combos etc.

Hajck Hillstrom
02-18-2016, 10:48 PM
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!!

I do feel it important to illustrate the impact of a 20(+)% take on your wagers. If you were at a poker table with a 20% house rake on each and every wager, how would that impacat 10 players with $10,000 staked in the game? ... After about one hour, one player would remain with about $25,000 and the house would have $75k.

formula_2002
02-20-2016, 03:18 AM
a discussion back almost 11 years ago.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=22490&highlight=efficenc.

Dave Schwartz
02-20-2016, 10:27 AM
Hajck Hillstrom, it is good to see you posting again.

:ThmbUp:

Welcome back.

johnhannibalsmith
02-20-2016, 12:02 PM
It's probably a little early in the game to effectively incorporate this way of thinking into actually betting, but I don't necessarily think that it is ever too early to begin to look at races this way with an eye towards developing your proficiency at doing it (and others have touched upon it in a roundabout way when discussing 'boxing' for example):

Try to evaluate the relative chances of the entrants in a given race and express it as a percentage. In other words, lay out, even if it is only in your mind as you look a race over, what percentage out of 100 each horse has of winning. I know that others will disagree (at least as far as going this route while still just hunting beginner books) and it also depends largely on the track and pools into which you are betting but more and more, for me anyway, there just has to be 'value' in a race to warrant wagering beyond simple entertainment plays. Often this mindset leads me into exotic pools in search of value, but for the sake of the concept in general, simply taking a bit of a stand and creating these percentages for yourself - what is in effect your own 'betting line' - will help to clarify for you just what and when to bet.

There are probably dozens of great threads here that can help expand on this idea, but ultimately what it comes down to is that each percentage (or range as is often the case for me) you assign to an entrant is then easily translated to what we recognize as parimutuel odds. From there, it becomes quite a bit easier to identify the horses that based upon your analysis are sitting at the tote representing 'value'. If you believe a horse has a roughly 20% chance of winning the race and give yourself a bottom price of 4-1 off of that opinion and see at post time that the tote is offering 6-1 or something, it becomes easier (for me anyway) to see that I don't need to be creative to find value in a pool, it's right there in the win pool.

This obviously isn't a way that is going to necessarily help you pick winners and again, if you struggle to even get close identifying the players in a race or the shape of a race in terms of dynamics and flow, then you will likely be well off the mark in assigning percentages. But if you feel as though you do a pretty solid job making sense of the past performances and see the race reasonably well before it runs but just can't seem to translate that into winning tickets - or more accurately winning sessions since you might nail the percentages and still tear up tickets because the winner didn't meet your criteria - it might be worth incorporating some aspect of this approach into your thinking at least to help in appreciating when to go and when to sit.

My six pesos without repeating something else in the thread (I think...) :D . Good luck.

whodoyoulike
02-20-2016, 06:15 PM
My thoughts:

The .10 has it's pros and cons. Con-obviously more people can "get in" for less and lower larger payouts.

One pro-it gives you the opportunity to weigh out your opinions. If I am 100% right, I can hit the sup for $X dollars. If 1 of my opinions is wrong, I can hit it for 40% of X.

I can cover for a dime on bomb combos etc.

This was my question .... How do you know what X is before post time?

Are the Super pools made available before post time?

And, is your assumption that you are always taking the entire pool?

therussmeister
02-20-2016, 08:10 PM
Thanks, after posting last night I reviewed your examples and just realized it was similar to boxing exacta and tri's with the added calculation step. Which is why after I viewed it from the bold part which you mentioned in the above, it became obvious as you stated. Including the horses when they couldn't be part of the win or place etc., initially through me off.

Now, this is partly off the topic but, I think is still related. I usually like to know what a bet is going to cost me (and thanks again) and approx. how much will be the payout to determine whether a bet is worth it. Again, I do play exacta or tri's just not very often anymore. The exacta payouts are provided by the tote board and my estimate of tri's is basically looking at the exacta and estimating that it's payout will be higher depending on the third place finishing odds but basically it will pay greater than the exacta.

Do you or anyone else reading this post have a good estimate for superfecta payouts since expected tri payouts are not provided?

It's more important to look at the third place finisher's ranking rather than odds. That is, if the third place horse is 6/1 and the third favorite it will pay less than if it was 6/1 and the fifth favorite.

As far as estimating payouts I only have an educated guess because every day I'm looking at results charts. Anyway I'm only interested in the likelihood that it will pay more than an acceptable minimum.

EMD4ME
02-20-2016, 08:27 PM
This was my question .... How do you know what X is before post time?

Are the Super pools made available before post time?

And, is your assumption that you are always taking the entire pool?

Good question. However, what X was in my statement was not the pool but what I feel like betting on the "top" superfecta play. But yes, X is based on how big the pool is, how much I want to wager etc.

thaskalos
02-20-2016, 08:55 PM
The only negative thing I can say about the 10-cent supers is that they are not a good fit for the short fields that we often see in today's game.

When confined to the large fields...the 10-cent super is the only way that I've ever been able to find where the player has a legitimate shot at a signer for a $14.40 investment. People say that the 10-cent super minimizes the player's chances of scooping up the entire superfecta pool...and that confuses me. Is the point of playing this game to scoop up the entire pool...or are we looking for a worthwhile return on our investment?

Play the 10-cent super in races where you dislike the favorite...and spread out liberally at the top of the wager. It is the opposite of what most players do...because they overestimate their ability to pick the winner...while underestimating their ability to eliminate some of the horses in the race. Try it...and you might thank me.

whodoyoulike
02-20-2016, 09:19 PM
Good question. However, what X was in my statement was not the pool but what I feel like betting on the "top" superfecta play. But yes, X is based on how big the pool is, how much I want to wager etc.

Sorry, I'm just trying to get a handle on Super betting strategies and your response isn't making sense based on your previous response. I'm not following what the $X dollars or hit it for 40% of X is.

... One pro-it gives you the opportunity to weigh out your opinions. If I am 100% right, I can hit the sup for $X dollars. If 1 of my opinions is wrong, I can hit it for 40% of X.

I can cover for a dime on bomb combos etc.

Let's take an actual example from Turfway Park Race 5 today - 2/20/16.

11 horses and using HalvOnHorseracing's example (although his was 10 entries) ....

... AB/AB/ABCDEFG/ABCDEFGHIJ is 2X1X5X7 = 70 Once A and B hit the top two spots, they can't hit the third or fourth spot. In fact the more appropriate ticket is AB/AB/CDEFG/CDEFGHIJ, then the arithmetic is obvious. ...

The 5th race $0.10 super at TP was 12-8-3-9 for $23.32, the odds were:

(12 - 4/5); (8 - 7/1); (3 - 5/2) and (9 - 25/1).

With 70 combinations your cost is $7.00 which paid $23.32 which is less than a 5/2 straight win bet.

I couldn't find the super pool handle anywhere on my ADW. The 7/1 and the 25/1 fourth slot are pretty good long shots at most places. So, without knowing what the total super pool is at the time of your bet when would someone know it's a good bet?

The $1.00 exacta and tri paid $8.60 and $25.50, respectively.

Anyone wish to respond, it doesn't have to be from Emd4me?

MNslappy
02-20-2016, 11:13 PM
Some of the best advice you'll see on this forum (and you'll see it over and over again) is to learn to PASS on a race you've put time into handicapping.

It sounds so simple ... it might be the simplest piece of advice you'll get, in theory, but it's one of the hardest in practice.

pondman
02-24-2016, 07:09 PM
I have been handicapping horses for well over a year now and I seem to be missing something. I put 100 dollars a month into betting. I always bet with a past performances, I buy it a day in advance and really get into handicapping and look for things also before post time. I bet 10cent superfecta's usually 5 horse box bet, also bet quinellas, and show bets. At the end this really does not seem to be paying off if I'm lucky I brake even. What am I doing wrong? What do I need to put better bets together? What are my best bets to see improvement?
I do hope to make a bit of a living of this/ salary!! Any books a newbie like me should read?

Thanks for any and all help!!

If you don't look beyond what everyone else is doing, you won't make money. You are trying to hit some of the most difficult bets to cash on. You might try just Win bets for awhile. Find a race that is suitable to your knowledge. See how you do.