Lemon Drop Husker
02-13-2016, 12:21 PM
An always interesting race that doesn't put forth many true Derby contenders (at least in the last 20 or so years), but has provided some nice prices including last years $15.20 winner Metaboss.
This year we get a large field of 14 (at least for now) looking to get to the gate in a wide open affair.
As usual, we see a large number of turf horses looking to get a hoof in the door on the Triple Crown trail.
:1: Kelly with a Twist: Distance alone is a big enough question mark, and even then this colt just isn't fast enough. Hard to see this one being any part of this one.
:2: Kasseopia: Foreign invader that shipped into Woodbine and ran very well in the G3 Grey. Serious contender with Poly experience and gets Lasix for the first time. An almost must include on all exotics tickets.
:3: Touched by Autism: Hasn't really ran a bad race, but hasn't really ran anything that piques your interest either. A likely pace presence that just doesn't have the breeding to suggest he can step up huge in a spot like this.
:4: Mr Coker: Two races and the only horse to beat him is Danzing Candy who just ran a huge one last out. Interesting that the connections have decided to send him here as opposed to taking a run in a Santa Anita prep, but winning and gaining points is obviously the goal here. Distance is a question, but breeding suggests it shouldn't be an issue. Good post, and could get a beautiful stalking trip. Serious contender if he takes to the Poly.
:5: Oscar Dominguez: Another foreigner that had to drop to a pretty low level to get a win. Poly experienced, but have to look elsewhere.
:6: San Dimas: His numbers aren't inspiring, but this horse competes. Like the breeding and connections, and the ML is very appealing. Maybe not a winner, but will keep running and can spice up exotics.
:7: Marqula: Experienced colt that just doesn't win much. Has ran against a number of peers in here, and has shown up a tad short in those efforts. Tough horse to toss as his numbers stack up well, but I just get a feeling he'll run hard, and maybe even well, but not get it done. Exotics player, but can't see winning, and will reluctantly toss out of exotics.
:8: Tusk: Talented colt that hasn't really put it all together yet. Can a switch to Poly be the answer? Should be coming late, and could be a bomb on top. Has always been bet, so the tote board will be interesting to watch with this one.
:9: Algenon: Another that has ran against a number of peers in here and hasn't shown poorly. Will likely be a part of the pace, but distance is a monster question mark for this one. Pass.
:10: Diplodocus: Connections are as solid as any in here and he gets the best jockey at the track (bar none) on board. He is going to wake up and run huge at some point in time. Will it be today? At 15/1, an almost must include in exotics for me.
:11: Go Long: 9 career races so we have a pretty good idea of the ceiling with this one. That ceiling isn't good enough to beat the majority of these.
:12: Frank Conversation: ML favorite has ran well outside of his Maiden clunker. Bested some rivals in here last out, but a possible bounce could be in store here. Beatable favorite.
:13: Mana Strike: Ran against a number of rivals in here. Beat them once, and got whipped last out. A tough read that seems like an every other race sort in which this "should" be an "up" race. Can win, and if he does it will be at a price.
:14: Giopress: Bested some rivals in here 2 back, but hard to see him besting all 13 here today. Will need to be somewhere close after 4F, and I'm struggling to see him doing that and being able to get 9 furlongs. Could grind out a bottom end exotic finish, but will pass.
Really tough race, and I'll be waiting till around post time to finalize my selections.
This year we get a large field of 14 (at least for now) looking to get to the gate in a wide open affair.
As usual, we see a large number of turf horses looking to get a hoof in the door on the Triple Crown trail.
:1: Kelly with a Twist: Distance alone is a big enough question mark, and even then this colt just isn't fast enough. Hard to see this one being any part of this one.
:2: Kasseopia: Foreign invader that shipped into Woodbine and ran very well in the G3 Grey. Serious contender with Poly experience and gets Lasix for the first time. An almost must include on all exotics tickets.
:3: Touched by Autism: Hasn't really ran a bad race, but hasn't really ran anything that piques your interest either. A likely pace presence that just doesn't have the breeding to suggest he can step up huge in a spot like this.
:4: Mr Coker: Two races and the only horse to beat him is Danzing Candy who just ran a huge one last out. Interesting that the connections have decided to send him here as opposed to taking a run in a Santa Anita prep, but winning and gaining points is obviously the goal here. Distance is a question, but breeding suggests it shouldn't be an issue. Good post, and could get a beautiful stalking trip. Serious contender if he takes to the Poly.
:5: Oscar Dominguez: Another foreigner that had to drop to a pretty low level to get a win. Poly experienced, but have to look elsewhere.
:6: San Dimas: His numbers aren't inspiring, but this horse competes. Like the breeding and connections, and the ML is very appealing. Maybe not a winner, but will keep running and can spice up exotics.
:7: Marqula: Experienced colt that just doesn't win much. Has ran against a number of peers in here, and has shown up a tad short in those efforts. Tough horse to toss as his numbers stack up well, but I just get a feeling he'll run hard, and maybe even well, but not get it done. Exotics player, but can't see winning, and will reluctantly toss out of exotics.
:8: Tusk: Talented colt that hasn't really put it all together yet. Can a switch to Poly be the answer? Should be coming late, and could be a bomb on top. Has always been bet, so the tote board will be interesting to watch with this one.
:9: Algenon: Another that has ran against a number of peers in here and hasn't shown poorly. Will likely be a part of the pace, but distance is a monster question mark for this one. Pass.
:10: Diplodocus: Connections are as solid as any in here and he gets the best jockey at the track (bar none) on board. He is going to wake up and run huge at some point in time. Will it be today? At 15/1, an almost must include in exotics for me.
:11: Go Long: 9 career races so we have a pretty good idea of the ceiling with this one. That ceiling isn't good enough to beat the majority of these.
:12: Frank Conversation: ML favorite has ran well outside of his Maiden clunker. Bested some rivals in here last out, but a possible bounce could be in store here. Beatable favorite.
:13: Mana Strike: Ran against a number of rivals in here. Beat them once, and got whipped last out. A tough read that seems like an every other race sort in which this "should" be an "up" race. Can win, and if he does it will be at a price.
:14: Giopress: Bested some rivals in here 2 back, but hard to see him besting all 13 here today. Will need to be somewhere close after 4F, and I'm struggling to see him doing that and being able to get 9 furlongs. Could grind out a bottom end exotic finish, but will pass.
Really tough race, and I'll be waiting till around post time to finalize my selections.