View Full Version : The Curious Case of the Ladies' Turf Sprint Stakes
http://timeformusblog.com/2016/02/09/the-curious-case-of-the-ladies-turf-sprint-stakes-at-gulfstream-park/
This is in the Gulfstream thread, but want to make sure it isn't missed. I never expected to find what I did.
Storm Cadet
02-09-2016, 03:41 PM
great job CJ !!!
Alwaysonpoint36
02-09-2016, 03:50 PM
Brilliant cj. 😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎
outofthebox
02-09-2016, 03:54 PM
Excellent work!
Now that is race writing!
Kudos CJ.
You embarrass the industry.
Now that is race writing!
Kudos CJ.
You embarrass the industry.
I just want things to be better. If it takes some embarrassment, so be it.
thaskalos
02-09-2016, 04:19 PM
Now, THAT'S what horse racing "journalism" should look like. :ThmbUp:
azeri98
02-09-2016, 04:24 PM
great job CJ !!!
Ditto,you really dug down to find the truth.
thaskalos
02-09-2016, 04:32 PM
Shouldn't the horse racing "industry" be employing someone to do the investigating work that Cj has done in this case? With all the casino profits that are streaming into this game, can't a little money be found and be thrown at investigating projects such as this?
Or is the "industry" too concerned about its "image" to confront these serious miscarriages of justice?
Stillriledup
02-09-2016, 04:34 PM
Brilliant research, great stuff CJ!
Dave Schwartz
02-09-2016, 05:18 PM
Tweeted!
Great article!
davew
02-09-2016, 05:28 PM
This is an interesting blog, my question is why do they have any run up? Why do they not start the clock when the gate opens?
Doesn't this unfairly penalize slow breaking horses for their time? What I mean is when the first horse starts the clock, there may be some a couple lengths behind.
Kash$
02-09-2016, 05:37 PM
After reading the article...imo how can anyone NOT USE Timeformus pps. :)
This is an interesting blog, my question is why do they have any run up? Why do they not start the clock when the gate opens?
Doesn't this unfairly penalize slow breaking horses for their time? What I mean is when the first horse starts the clock, there may be some a couple lengths behind.
There is a link in the article to a previous one that discusses run up.
Mandrake
02-09-2016, 05:45 PM
Equibase full charts has 4th race run up at 10 feet and the other turf sprint at 48 feet.
Equibase full charts has 4th race run up at 10 feet and the other turf sprint at 48 feet.
They've changed a few times since originally published. They are much better now, but race 4 should probably be labeled as about 5f.
Mandrake
02-09-2016, 06:05 PM
This research brings up some curious questions:
How many strides does it take a horse to get to full speed?
How much distance does it take? (strides X length of stride)
This research brings up some curious questions:
How many strides does it take a horse to get to full speed?
How much distance does it take? (strides X length of stride)
There is a very good book by Charles Carrol that answers these questions much better than I can.
PaceAdvantage
02-09-2016, 10:57 PM
Great job cj, as usual. The industry holds the player in such low regard, it's no wonder that cavalier attitudes towards "trivial" matters like run-up and gate placement aren't given a second thought.
But God-forbid owners don't get the proper treatment on Derby day, or Ron Turcotte can't get a parking space...THAT'S when the real hard-hitting pieces get written about racing from establishments like the New York Times and ESPN...
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/03/sports/churchill-downs-bolsters-its-hospitality-after-a-high-profile-criticism.html?_r=0
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/triplecrown2014/story/_/id/10863749/secretariat-jockey-ron-turcotte-says-kentucky-derby-snubbed-him
:rolleyes:
Cratos
02-10-2016, 12:05 AM
This research brings up some curious questions:
How many strides does it take a horse to get to full speed?
How much distance does it take? (strides X length of stride)
I don't think there is an exact answer to your two questions because of the difference in the physical sizes of horses and their inherent ability to accelerate to top speed.
Having said that, the Jockey Club estimates the average horse's stride to be about 23 feet with a horse reaching its top speed in about 125 feet.
It has been reported that the great Secretariat had a stride of 26 feet.
Psychotic Parakeet
02-10-2016, 01:03 AM
It has been reported that the great Secretariat had a stride of 26 feet.
Funny. I have read elsewhere that it was about 24 feet. Zenyatta's was about 25-something feet, which makes sense since she is gargantuan.
ManU918
02-10-2016, 06:41 AM
You have to be an early favorite for the "BEST HUMBLEBRAG" Beemie Award with work like this.
castaway01
02-10-2016, 08:01 AM
Great article CJ, very interesting stuff.
Fixed it for you :D - ManU918
tucker6
02-10-2016, 08:04 AM
Funny. I have read elsewhere that it was about 24 feet. Zenyatta's was about 25-something feet, which makes sense since she is gargantuan.
Here's a great and interesting article on stride and foot turnover.
http://performancegenetics.com/the-stride-of-a-champion-how-does-american-pharoah-compare-to-secretariat/
Secretariat had a stride of ~24.5 feet. American Pharoah had a stride of 25.23 feet. However, a bigger difference is strides per second. Secretariat at top speed could do 2.4 strides/second, whereas AP could do 2.2. That means that every five seconds, Secretariat would gain 24.5 feet while losing only 3.5 feet (due to stride length) to AP in a mythical race for a net to Secretariat of 21 feet every five seconds. That's a 2 length difference in five seconds. Again, this is at top speed.
They also looked at the average horse, and while stride length was lower (at ~23.5 feet), the biggest difference was strides per second. The elite can stride much faster. Obviously.
EMD4ME
02-10-2016, 08:12 AM
CJ,
Masterfull job!!!! Very proud of you sir! (Not that you need my approval :lol: :lol: :lol: ).
Very much appreciated.
EMD4ME
AlBundy33
02-10-2016, 09:00 AM
Incredible. I'm just amazed how Gulfstream and the gate crew managed to put the starting gate at the wrong spot.
jballscalls
02-10-2016, 09:42 AM
You have to be an early favorite for the "BEST HUMBLEBRAG" Beemie Award with work like this.
Right now this one is in on the lead
ManU918
02-10-2016, 10:09 AM
Right now this one is in on the lead
Okay clearly the Humblebrag isn't going to CJ but he needs some sort of special award given similar to the Pulitzer Prize for Investigative Reporting.
thaskalos
02-10-2016, 10:54 AM
Okay clearly the Humblebrag isn't going to CJ but he needs some sort of special award given similar to the Pulitzer Prize for Investigative Reporting.
The horse racing industry will start giving out awards for "Investigative reporting", when the Obama administration starts rewarding WHISTLEBLOWING.
The horse racing industry will start giving out awards for "Investigative reporting", when the Obama administration starts rewarding WHISTLEBLOWING.
It will be really interesting to see what Gulfstream Park says about this. My guess is absolutely nothing. They'll pretend nobody noticed.
At least when I wrote this one, Delmar at least pretended to check it out even though they didn't admit there was a timer malfunction.
http://timeformusblog.com/2013/08/27/pacific-classic-million-dollar-performance-worthless-timing/
thaskalos
02-10-2016, 11:18 AM
It will be really interesting to see what Gulfstream Park says about this. My guess is absolutely nothing. They'll pretend nobody noticed.
At least when I wrote this one, Delmar at least pretended to check it out even though they didn't admit there was a timer malfunction.
http://timeformusblog.com/2013/08/27/pacific-classic-million-dollar-performance-worthless-timing/
Gulfstream won't make a public announcement...that's for sure. But if they had even a TRACE of "class" as a business operation, then they would contact you in private...and thank you for your work. But they don't even know how to SPELL "class".
ManU918
02-10-2016, 11:18 AM
The horse racing industry will start giving out awards for "Investigative reporting", when the Obama administration starts rewarding WHISTLEBLOWING.
Obviously I was being sarcastic. I don't expect Gulfstream to say anything... But maybe because we are all saying they wont they will...
jballscalls
02-10-2016, 11:20 AM
Okay clearly the Humblebrag isn't going to CJ but he needs some sort of special award given similar to the Pulitzer Prize for Investigative Reporting.
Honestly CJ's piece is one of the most interesting pieces I've read in a while. Just fantastic
ManU918
02-10-2016, 11:25 AM
Honestly CJ's piece is one of the most interesting pieces I've read in a while. Just fantastic
I agree 100%.
thaskalos
02-10-2016, 11:28 AM
Great writers and great handicappers don't often come in the same package...that's what made Andy Beyer the standout that he became. Cj is cut from the same cloth, IMO...and I wish him comparable success. His is a fresh voice...the kind that this game is in dire need of.
Onwards and upwards, I say. :ThmbUp:
proximity
02-10-2016, 11:32 AM
as a big revenge of the nerds fan i would've added a heading called "we've got bush" to the bottom of the "what did the data say?" section...... but seriously, great article cj!! :ThmbUp:
outofthebox
02-10-2016, 12:20 PM
Incredible. I'm just amazed how Gulfstream and the gate crew managed to put the starting gate at the wrong spot.They intentionally do this. They don't want the tractor entering the turf course in the same place and creating wear and tear of the sod. Unfortunately their logic is also a detriment to the timing of the races. I'm not sure they realize this....
I'm surprised they have someone smart enough to drive a tractor.
AlBundy33
02-10-2016, 12:33 PM
They intentionally do this. They don't want the tractor entering the turf course in the same place and creating wear and tear of the sod. Unfortunately their logic is also a detriment to the timing of the races. I'm not sure they realize this....
I get that part, what I don't understand is that they have some room to work with between the five furlongs and five and a half furlongs mark.
Probably doesn't help that the turf course gets overused as well.
That was just bizarre once CJ mentioned this, because I watched the replay three times to believe what I just saw. :D
Just saw the TFUS "adjusted" fractions. What are you using as revised "raw" times for Race 4?
It will be really interesting to see what Gulfstream Park says about this. My guess is absolutely nothing. They'll pretend nobody noticed.
At least when I wrote this one, Delmar at least pretended to check it out even though they didn't admit there was a timer malfunction.
http://timeformusblog.com/2013/08/27/pacific-classic-million-dollar-performance-worthless-timing/
Gulfstream is changing the race from 5 furlongs to "about" five furlongs. I think at this point that is about all they can do other than have the fractions removed from the race. They are taking steps to make sure this doesn't happen again.
Just saw the TFUS "adjusted" fractions. What are you using as revised "raw" times for Race 4?
The half and final time you posted are very close to what I have, the opening quarter is slower from me. I'm going to reevaluate it later today. In reality it just depends on what you decide to use for run up. I'll try to make it match Race 10, so give them six lengths of rail and then time the next quarter.
When I timed both races from the 3/8ths pole to the finish, the last 3f were in basically line with what Trakus showed (R4 .76 faster in final 3f than R10 on Trakus).
When I timed both races from the 3/8ths pole to the finish, the last 3f were in basically line with what Trakus showed (R4 .76 faster in final 3f than R10 on Trakus).
Yes, I agree with this. I don't think Trakus really had any malfunction....they timed what was run. It was just less than 5f.
Gulfstream is changing the race from 5 furlongs to "about" five furlongs. I think at this point that is about all they can do other than have the fractions removed from the race. They are taking steps to make sure this doesn't happen again.
I see the fractions are now gone from the chart, but it still shows 5 furlongs.
Here is a golden opportunity for tracks to bring in new customers - offer a new wager......over/under on the distance of each race.
classhandicapper
02-12-2016, 08:51 AM
Here is a golden opportunity for tracks to bring in new customers - offer a new wager......over/under on the distance of each race.
Good one. :lol:
Dave Schwartz
02-12-2016, 04:38 PM
Follow Up: Equibase has now made Race 4 "about 5F" Turf, the fractions have been nulled out and the final time was changed.
Courtesy of Ron Tiller@HDW.
Follow Up: Equibase has now made Race 4 "about 5F" Turf, the fractions have been nulled out and the final time was changed.
Courtesy of Ron Tiller@HDW.
Equibase now shows a final time of 57.06 which makes me feel even more confident about what I posted earlier (22.12 44.92 57.04).
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