Sat PENN 4th-When Quirin vs Trainer Angles Collide

[NorCalGreg]

Penn 4th Race--Clm 12500n4L 1m70yds 4&up

Interesting race--one of those races where you find a sweet Spot-Play angle--and while you give a courtesy double-check on the remaining field--you find AN EQUALLY POWERFUL ANGLE--what do you do?

With the Quirin Angle (QSP)--I look for an fit and ready E8, preferably close to the rail, in a field of plodders.

:1: LOVE'S NOT FAIR 7-2 ML E8 fits the angle perfectly. From a known betting barn (McCarty/Kreiser), good race off the claim, then last a throwaway tightner @ 6F- today is back in 9 days, which tells me his condition is good.
The only other speed is the :6: HAY SEEKER 6-1 ML EP6, but this spot appears way too ambitous.

Had already written down my play when I discover
:4: GUTS AND GLORY 8-1 ML. This horse shows classic 'M' signals: Trainer-Manipulation.
Claimed in Nov for $15K, rested up, with now 2 races in Jan... big middle-move 2 back, then throwawaylast @ 7F --the distance many trainers here use to "color" a horse's form.

Today back to winning distance, positive rider switch, B-ON, 3rd race off claim, trainer is the very capable Dale Capuano.

In this case, I always go with the price, and will take the :4: --may even get better than the 8-1. I'll hope that pesky :6: horse will pressure the :1: for awhile, with GUTS AND GLORY waltzing home in a tight finish. Will box the :1: - :4: exacta, and forget about the :6: completely.

Who would you take??

,

[upthecreek]

Neither lol Not to root against you,but I'd take a shot with the Lrl shipper,#3 Supermon Also
If the #5 is ready off a 4 month layoff,he could be tough despite the suspicious drop

[NorCalGreg]

Neither lol Not to root against you,but I'd take a shot with the Lrl shipper,#3 Supermon Also
If the #5 is ready off a 4 month layoff,he could be tough despite the suspicious drop

I probably didn't word that very well---I meant which horse of all--not just which of my two picks. That would assume mine is the only possible outcome--haha they might not even hit the board :cool:

[upthecreek]

I think those races @ Lrl are a little tougher condition wise despite the claiming price Picks up top jock,looks like a ship in to win Full disclosure I NEVER play Penn ,so I'm liable to be
up the track

[mikesal57]

Greg...

have to disagree with you on this one...

First off this is a 6 year old with 3 wins in 27 races...( I said 6)

second, had a easy lead before and faded...

last ....7/2 odds....no way

and what tells you that the track and inside is speed favoring???

too much negatives here...PASS

mike

[Kash$]

Dropdown Silent Ruler is why i would pass the race/Good luck

[Tom]

Generally, when I have two spot plalyts show up in the same race, I bet them both. You are not playing one race, you are playing the whole series of races with your spots. Skipping one of them will probablt end up being the wrong one.

[NorCalGreg]

Greg...

have to disagree with you on this one...

First off this is a 6 year old with 3 wins in 27 races...( I said 6)

second, had a easy lead before and faded...

last ....7/2 odds....no way

and what tells you that the track and inside is speed favoring???

too much negatives here...PASS

mike


Wow, Mike.....haven't seen you on the board since the Jets debacle--thought maybe you had gone into a deep depression :)

You make good points, let me try to answer ---

"First off this is a 6 year old with 3 wins in 27 races...( I said 6)"


The race conditions:

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES.

These are all 5 and 6 yr-olds, with the exception of :6: HAY SEEKER


"and what tells you that the track and inside is speed favoring"


The RACE SHAPE is what tells me THIS race is speed-favoring---7 horses, 5 with a P running style--content to run mid-pack, only 1 E-P run-style...and then we have the :1: E8

Handicapping, as you well know, is a guessing game for the most part. Based on the evidence, my first pick was the lone speed horse--why not?

As I went further into the race--I saw the :4: GUTS N GLORY, and eventually decided the overwhelming trainer manipulation signals were just too much to ignore, so went with the :4: horse to win--with a :1: , :4: exacta box.

[upthecreek]

Neither lol Not to root against you,but I'd take a shot with the Lrl shipper,#3 Supermon Also
If the #5 is ready off a 4 month layoff,he could be tough despite the suspicious drop
Winner winner @ 7-1!
$42 exacta

[NorCalGreg]

Winner winner @ 7-1!


Good call 'creek :ThmbUp:

Dang :1: broke last....and the :4: (my longshot) was bet down to the favorite--then couldn't get out of his own way :eek:

I blame the jockeys.

[upthecreek]

Good call 'creek :ThmbUp:

Dang :1: broke last....and the :4: (my longshot) was bet down to the favorite--then couldn't get out of his own way :eek:

I blame the jockeys.
Thnx! My selection service will be up and running on........LOL
I looked up those $5000b races ,tougher than N4L

[ultracapper]

Look at the stats for that condition. 33 races, only 3 favorites ran out of the money. Did the 4 get up for 3rd as the favorite? 33 races, only 2 had paid $22+ to win. Only 9 had paid $12+. Tough condition there to find a price. 12 of 33 favorites won and they still carried a negative ROI.

Winning favorites at that condition average out at $5.00 in an average field size of 7. At Penn, that's a mighty tough condition to win money. Nice call by our poster. He definitely had the odds stacked against him.

[upthecreek]

Look at the stats for that condition. 33 races, only 3 favorites ran out of the money. Did the 4 get up for 3rd as the favorite? 33 races, only 2 had paid $22+ to win. Only 9 had paid $12+. Tough condition there to find a price. 12 of 33 favorites won and they still carried a negative ROI.

Winning favorites at that condition average out at $5.00 in an average field size of 7. At Penn, that's a mighty tough condition to win money. Nice call by our poster. He definitely had the odds stacked against him.
Nothing to it! :lol: I really thought the #5 would have been the heavy favorite