Is there a way to make this profitable

[penguinfan]

Stats are over 2000+ races

Win% 21.2
ROI -19.91
Average mutual $7.56


Given these stats over 2000+ races is there a way to bet to make this completely mechanical method profitable? Tossing the short prices won't do it, for example taking only 3-1 or higher reduces the win rate to 11.48% and the ROI to -22.89. I am not a fan of progressive betting or Due column betting, but it seems like if you know over 200 racing days that you are gonna pick 2 winners a day you should be able to make it work for you.
BTW if you just eliminate horses under even money you get the following:

Win% 19
ROI -20.22

I kinda like that set of stats better since I rarely, if ever throw down on a 4-5 horse anyway.

Completely black box on this so am I correct on assuming that the takeout is what is turning this into a loss? If so perhaps a betting exchange where you COULD increase your odds by a half point or whole point on each bet could make this profitable.

Thoughs?

Penguinfan

[tdthomas]

I am not that good at math, but it seems to me that you need to increase either your win % or your avg. mutuel.

[penguinfan]

Originally posted by tdthomas
I am not that good at math, but it seems to me that you need to increase either your win % or your avg. mutuel.

I guess that would be the easy way, however given the circumstances I though someone would be able to spin this in the right direction.

[cj]

You are asking for disaster pen, you will have great trouble turning a negative expectation into profit.

You may get lucky for a short time, but it won't last. Black jack players have tried this scheme for years, and they have a nearly 50% win rate. It never seems to be as easy in real life as it looks on paper.

[JackS]

Your average mutual price isn't so bad it's the low win % thats going to continue the losses. There is something in your current method that is drastically in need of change. Toss your method and start a whole new campaign using anything except what your using now. A method that can place your top choice in the 30% range with an average mutual of $8 would give a +2%. If this seems low, consider that the increase from the -19% is a 21% improvement. Good Luck

[penguinfan]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
You are asking for disaster pen, you will have great trouble turning a negative expectation into profit.

You may get lucky for a short time, but it won't last. Black jack players have tried this scheme for years, and they have a nearly 50% win rate. It never seems to be as easy in real life as it looks on paper.

I get it CJ, and that is actually the first thing that crossed my mind when making that post, just wanted to make sure before I do as Jack suggested and start over.

[tdthomas]

The only other possibility (that I see) would be to categorize the 2000 races. Maybe you do well at 1 mile claiming races, or 1 1/6 on the turf. Maybe there are a few categories that bring your averages down.
Accentuate the positive (if any), eliminate the negative.

[BeatTheChalk]

The first thing to do is this...

See what types of races you are winning and losing. If that
doesnt help...I am stuck....For example..Horses in State Bred
races: A grab bag for the most part. Also 7 furlong races imho.
It would be great if you could find the categories ..that produce
winners! Also you must look at Distance - Turf and Dirt etc..
Nobody said it would be easy ":":"

[wolsons]

"A method that can place your top choice in the 30% range with an average mutual of $8 would give a +2%. If this seems low, consider that the increase from the -19% is a 21% improvement. Good Luck"

Actually, 30% winners with an average mutuel of $8 represents a +20% ROI, not a +2% ROI - and that is not low, that would be fantastic!!

Steve

[JackS]

Two dollars invested with a $2.40 return- Yep 20%. Shoot for 30% winners and any odds above 2-1. Both these figs seem reasonable and possible.