Crush It or Pass It-02-03 DED r1-round 3

[mistergee]

Time for the next edition of "Crush It (time to withdraw some funds to bet this one), or Pass It ( anything on that honeydew list dear? ) "

Round 3 is Delta Race 1 on wedn, so we have plenty of time to share thoughts. Yes, this is a very cheap race but it will pay as if you hit the derby if you are right.
1- Blue Parading-looks the fastest but is 0 for 16 with a 1 for 67 rider
2- Fine Desperado-ran once not that well, got tired now goes longer, Brinkman trains however
3-Justmefromthegitgo-hard to find a positive
4-Gentleman Jake-ran twice, if you could call it that
5-Bout Time Again-came close to #1 in last
6-Pick On Me-did not come close to #1 in last
7-Boomtownboy-0 for 17, just missed to #1 in slop 2 back
8-Prince Paradise-shortens up a bit, out of $ all 7 at DED
9-Skinney Like That-4 races and 4 double digit length losses
10-Hyde and Go-listed as fave comes over from RP, off 2 months
11ae-Slews Shot-in or out, probably doesn't matter
12ae-Left Feels Right-best races on turf, only lost by 62 1/4 last time out


So I must say we have had some great picks here before. Lets have a little fun and handicap.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Obviously it isn't the greatest field ever assembled, but 10 horses will likely get to the gate in a field full of "career" maidens.

:1: Likely favorite in my opinion as this is about the only one in the field that can pass horses. Very playable if we can get the 5/2 ML.

:2: Flashed some speed in his debut, and did get some tote action. Contender in a pretty weak field. One of the better Jockey/Trainer combinations and one should expect decided improvement in his 2nd career race.

:3: Flashed some speed back in April and June at Evangeline Downs, but has showed nothing since. Has defeated 8 horses out of 48 in his 6 career races. Only thing to remotely like is the bug jockey and the 113 he'll be carrying. Still extremely tough to like.

:4: 5% trainer and 7% jockey on a horse that has finished last and 2nd to last in his only 2 career starts. And those were against state breds in the same condition. They are also stretching this one out an extra fulong and a half. If they had a wager for dead last, he'd be the favorite; even amongst this group.

:5: Encouraging race last out as the new connections have breathed some life into this one. Another step forward and he can beat these.

:6: Has flashed some speed, but is always retreating in the lane. Bottom end of exotics is his likely ceiling in here.

:7: Decent connections, but it is awfully difficult to look past the 0 for 17 record with only 2 on the board finishes. Should be in the race after 4Fs, and could even complete an exacta. Hard to see this one winning though.

:8: Gets the best jockey at the track in the irons, but the lowest odds this one has gone off at in 11 career starts is 23/1. I don't expect that to change here. The cut back in distance should help, and this one could spice up exotics with a board finish.

:9: 4 races, 4 awful showings. Lacks any speed whatsoever, and has passed tired rivals late in meaningless fashion. Hard to like anything about this one.

:10: ML favorite really hasn't done much since July. A true money burner that is 0 for 10 lifetime while going off at single digit odds in every race, including dead chalk in his last out. Change in scenery and trainer offers hope for improvement, and has been training well. At 9/5 I'll look to beat, but is dangerous in a weak field.

:11: Alternate entry has finished no closer than 14 lengths in 4 career starts. Was in the race at the 2nd call against a number of the same rivals last out, but faded badly. Switch to a lesser jockey, along with a tough post makes this one unplayable.

:12: Alternate entry that has faced much better in his 5 career starts. Trainer change isn't a plus, but this one has shown speed before, albeit on turf. Will be interesting if this one draws in.

:1::2::5: in the Exacta and will try to get :6::7::8: to spice up the trifecta.

[deelo]

:1: doesn't look to be forwardly placed and you can't always count on the rail to be wide open like it was for him last out sustaining for 2nd..he had a real accommodating trip...really should be going the fastest come stretch time but we're gonna bank you can't always get that trip and say he's forced too wide around the far turn and can't make it...throw out these short odds.

:2: looks to be a pace-setter contender here. chased a 40/1 and 50/1 who sprinted way clear last out. he was the pace-setter of the rest of the field but weakened by the chase and may have a chance to hold on with a similar situation not likely this time around.

:5: Another one that could be close up through the 1/2. has run some races where there was a lot of traffic up front and got outfinished. Seems a chance he could have an easier time settling near front this time. T/J has been faring well.

:6: Mid-pack and wide lately, and could have a chance to stick with the bottom end of the exotics if he gets better position and doesn't fall off hard.

:7: another one that could sneak in the bottom exotics as he doesn't look to have great position but should finish better than the other maybes.

:10: The ML favorite is a toughy. 24-7-5-2 not bad at all for T/J, the ever-dropping claiming price seems negative and also the outside post. Would like to throw him out due to short odds but he may just be too classy for this bunch and price drop or not, Dana opted for one her top riders.

:2: :5: :10: exb w/ :1: :6: :7: rounding out bottoms

What I'd really love is someone to give me some good reasoning to toss the :10: I'm having a hard time reading him with his PPs being kinda unrelatable to this race.

[mistergee]

:11: :12: are scratched

[deelo]

getting the feeling this is a PASS for everyone. The :1: :10: exacta might pay $5

[Lemon Drop Husker]

getting the feeling this is a PASS for everyone. The :1: :10: exacta might pay $5

Pretty much. Thought the :1: would end up as chalk, but that won't happen. The :10: getting an easy lead and wiring the field is obviously in play. :2::7: did get quite a bit of early play though.

I'll play the :1: at 3/1 with a :1:/:2::5: EX if the odds stay close to where they are at.

A cheap :1::5:/:1::2::5:/:1::2::5::6::7::8::10: $.50 tri might be worth a play.

[mistergee]

:1: is 4 to 1

[mistergee]

:2: :7: :4: :1:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Pretty much. Thought the :1: would end up as chalk, but that won't happen. The :10: getting an easy lead and wiring the field is obviously in play. :2::7: did get quite a bit of early play though.

I'll play the :1: at 3/1 with a :1:/:2::5: EX if the odds stay close to where they are at.

A cheap :1::5:/:1::2::5:/:1::2::5::6::7::8::10: $.50 tri might be worth a play.

WOW!

The :2::7: is gonna pay, and a bomb in the 3 hole. :10: was never a factor.

[mistergee]

Super. Only 18k

[deelo]

too greedy on exotics..shoulda just been on :2: to win

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Super. Only 18k

Should have paid much more attention to the early money on the :2::7::mad:

[mistergee]

Almost never toss Brinkman is a good rule